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Gold record run leads to latest sell signal on classic 60/40 portfolio

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Gold’s rally isn’t over, says Sprott’s ETF director Schoffstall

The traditional 60/40 portfolio has been under attack for years, and the recent hot trades in precious metals and cryptocurrencies are leading it to lose a little more of its prominence. Multiple strategists and investors are pivoting toward a 60/20/20 market portfolio: with the 60% in stocks unchanged, but fixed income losing half of its former hold over investor money, and 20% carved out for alternatives like gold and bitcoin.

Stocks and bonds are moving in the same direction too often, they say, while inflation, geopolitical risk, and government spending and high debt loads mean bonds no longer offer the protection they once did. “We are seeing greater adoption of non-equity, non fixed-income products,” Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, told CNBC.

In this new approach to structuring market exposure, gold is not a hedge on the margins of a portfolio, but one of its core holdings. Gold recently reached a record high above $4,300. Gold is up over 60% since the beginning of the year, which is backed by central bank demand, de-dollarization, and geopolitical tensions, and what has been called “the debasement trade.”

“What’s really happening now is a shift into the acceptance of gold,” Steve Schoffstall, director of ETF product management at precious metals and critical materials investing company Sprott, said on CNBC’s “ETF Edge” earlier this week. Typically, he said, it’s been viewed as a “fringe” allocation tool, “but what we’re really staring to see now is more prominent economists suggest shifting from 60-40 to something closer to 60-20-20,” he added.

But Schoffstall also said that for “most people, we feel they are probably well positioned if they have a 5%-15% allocation to physical gold.”

Gold ETFs have skyrocketed in performance and investor appeal, with the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and iShares Gold Trust (IAU) up around 11% this month, but the flood of investor assets into gold funds extends back to earlier this year. Gold ETFs posted their largest monthly inflows ever in September, according to the World Gold Council, with close to $11 billion in the month. SPDR Gold Shares took in over $4 billion alone last month, and mid-October, has amassed another $1.3 billion from investors, according to ETFAction.com. Sprott says the total assets moved by investors into gold funds this year has surpassed $38 billion.

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Performance of the SPDR Gold Shares ETF and iShares Bitcoin Trust in 2025.

Some investors are allocating to cryptocurrency, specifically bitcoin, with a similar 20% approach. Some financial advisors have gone beyond even that level, saying up to 40% in cryptocurrency is defensible as an investing approach.

Bitcoin reached a record high of $126,000 on Oct. 6 and has seen a flood of new money this month, with iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) taking in close to $1 billion in a single day, and over $4 billion at the mid-month October mark.

Rosenbluth said the alternatives bucket is no longer a single bet, but a mix of commodities, crypto, and private credit that are all packaged in ETFs, but investors do need to understand the bets have significant differences. “Gold is more risk off … cryptocurrency is more risk on,” Rosenbluth said.

Silver has also gained more attention among investors, and unlike gold, silver is a play on multiple global economic trends, including industrial demand, electrification, and automation. Prices recently climbed to a record high of $53.59 per ounce and some analysts expect it to trend much higher. “Silver is very vast in its uses about 10,000 uses,” Schoffstall said.

Rosenbluth warns amid the current record run for precious metals and crypto that this should not be about investors chasing the highest return in the short-term. While this has been a period of time when these alternatives increased overall portfolio returns, there’s no guarantee that will always be the case. The primary reason to restructure a portfolio with hedges, Rosenbluth said, is to add levers that operate differently during periods of ups and downs in the stock and bond markets, and that can help to smooth out returns over time.

This week was a good example of how these assets, considered popular hedges, can have very different market dynamics. After hitting its record above $126,000 earlier this month, bitcoin has sold off sharply, with a weekly loss of over 8%, as of Friday morning, while gold and silver have continued to move up and remain on pace for weekly gains. Private credit, meanwhile, which has ballooned in recent years but also sparked fears it might be brewing a bubble, became a major concern of the market over the past week since the surprise bankruptcy of auto parts company First Brands.

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Private Credit Expansion and Regulatory Oversight in 2026 Capital Markets

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The global private credit market has solidified its role as a fundamental pillar of enterprise finance, expanding rapidly across middle-market lending, asset-backed finance, and infrastructure financing. As non-bank financial institutions capture a larger share of corporate debt origination, global regulatory bodies are increasing oversight to evaluate market transparency and systemic risk interconnections.

Growth Drivers in Direct Lending
Direct lending platforms have continued to attract substantial institutional allocations from pension funds, sovereign wealth entities, and insurance companies seeking attractive risk-adjusted yields. Private debt funds offer corporate borrowers customized financing structures, faster execution timelines, and confidentiality compared to syndicated loan markets.

In 2026, private credit managers are increasingly financing larger corporate transactions, providing multi-billion-dollar credit facilities for buyout deals and corporate restructurings. The flexibility of private debt contracts—featuring unitranche pricing and tailored covenant packages—has made direct lending the preferred capital source for middle-market enterprise sponsors.

Regulatory Scrutiny and Systemic Risk Assessment
The rapid growth of non-bank intermediation has drawn heightened scrutiny from financial regulators in North America and Europe. Because private debt agreements are negotiated privately without public exchange disclosures, central banks are evaluating potential vulnerabilities related to asset valuation consistency and fund liquidity profiles.

Regulatory agencies are introducing guidelines aimed at improving reporting standards for private investment vehicles managing institutional assets. Key focus areas include monitoring leverage ratios within private credit funds and evaluating indirect credit exposures between commercial banking institutions and private debt funds.

Navigating Elevated Refinancing Costs
With benchmark interest rates remaining elevated, private debt borrowers face higher debt service obligations on floating-rate credit facilities. Financial advisory firms report an increase in proactive liability management strategies, including payment-in-kind (PIK) interest options, equity infusions from sponsors, and covenant modifications.

Private credit managers with deep operational capabilities are actively working alongside portfolio companies to optimize working capital and maintain cash flow coverage ratios during periods of higher borrowing costs.

Key Financial Takeaways
1. Mainstream Asset Class: Private credit has expanded beyond niche alternative asset status into a core corporate finance solution.
2. Enhanced Transparency Standards: Regulatory frameworks are evolving toward greater disclosure requirements for private debt managers.
3. Proactive Risk Management: Lenders and sponsors must prioritize debt sustainability and active portfolio monitoring amid high benchmark rates.

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Venture Capital and Startup Valuations in 2026: Focus on Unit Economics and Sustainable Growth

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The global venture capital (VC) ecosystem is operating under a disciplined investment framework in 2026. Following years of valuation adjustments and shifting liquidity environments, venture capital firms and private equity investors are prioritizing proven unit economics, positive cash flow pathways, and capital efficiency over rapid, unconstrained user acquisition.

The Shift Toward Disciplined Startup Valuations
Early-stage and growth-stage startup valuations have stabilized at sustainable historical averages. Venture capital partners are conducting rigorous due diligence processes before deploying capital, scrutinizing gross margins, customer acquisition costs (CAC), net revenue retention (NRR), and lifetime value (LTV) metrics.

While total capital deployed remains robust, seed and Series A funding rounds are taking longer to finalize. Founders are expected to demonstrate clear product-market fit and defensible intellectual property rather than relying on top-line revenue projections unsupported by strong underlying economics.

M&A Activity and Liquidity Solutions
The market for venture-backed exits is seeing renewed momentum through strategic mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and secondary market liquidity facilities. Established corporate enterprises are acquiring high-performing technology startups to integrate proprietary artificial intelligence models and specialized software solutions into their product ecosystems.

Simultaneously, secondary market transactions have become an essential liquidity mechanism for early employees and institutional investors. Specialized secondary funds are purchasing pre-IPO shares at discounted valuations, providing liquidity opportunities while companies remain private for longer durations.

Sector Allocation: Deep Tech, Clean Energy, and Enterprise Automation
Venture capital investment is heavily concentrated in deep technology and capital-intensive engineering sectors. High-growth investment themes include:
– Next-Generation Semiconductors: Hardware startups designing specialized AI processors and energy-efficient microchip architectures.
– Clean Technology: Battery chemistry innovations, carbon capture solutions, and grid-scale energy storage startups.
– Enterprise Process Automation: Software platforms that automate complex workflows in healthcare, financial services, and industrial logistics.

Key Insights for Entrepreneurs and Investors
1. Prioritize Capital Efficiency: Startups focused on achieving operational profitability receive higher valuation premiums from institutional investors.
2. Strategic Exit Planning: Corporate M&A is serving as a primary exit route for venture-backed startups navigating prolonged IPO windows.
3. Focus on High-Moat Technologies: Deep tech and proprietary software architectures are securing the majority of growth-stage capital allocations.

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The Evolution of Digital Payments: Cross-Border Settlement and Central Bank Digital Currencies in 2026

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The infrastructure supporting global commerce is undergoing a major technological upgrade as real-time digital payment rails, cross-border settlement solutions, and Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) pilot programs achieve widespread commercial adoption. Financial institutions and fintech developers are reimagining payment processing to eliminate friction, lower transaction fees, and accelerate settlement speed.

Transforming Cross-Border Settlement Infrastructure
For decades, international corporate payments relied on legacy correspondent banking networks characterized by multi-day settlement delays, opaque fee structures, and high foreign exchange markups. In 2026, modern cross-border payment networks are enabling near-instantaneous settlement for international trade transactions.

Financial technology platforms are leveraging distributed ledger technology and real-time gross settlement (RTGS) interconnections to settle transactions in seconds. International trade participants benefit from reduced working capital requirements and minimized foreign exchange volatility risks during cross-border transfers.

Commercial Expansion of Central Bank Digital Currencies
Central banks representing major global economies are advancing CBDC initiatives from research phases into active commercial deployment. Wholesale CBDCs—designed specifically for interbank settlement and financial institution clearing—are demonstrating substantial efficiency gains in domestic and international transactions.

At the retail level, several nations have introduced public digital currency options alongside existing commercial banking networks. These sovereign digital payment channels aim to expand financial inclusion, lower consumer transaction fees, and improve the efficiency of government-to-citizen financial disbursements.

Open Banking and Embedded Finance Ecosystems
Alongside settlement infrastructure upgrades, open banking regulations and embedded finance frameworks are transforming merchant-consumer interactions. Commercial businesses across retail, travel, and business-to-business (B2B) services are integrating seamless payment APIs directly into their customer software interfaces.

Through open banking frameworks, consumers can initiate secure bank-to-bank payments without relying on traditional credit card networks, significantly reducing merchant processing fees. Integrated Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL) options and point-of-sale credit facilities continue to expand, driving higher conversion rates for digital commerce platforms.

Strategic Financial Takeaways
1. Treasury Optimization: Corporate treasurers should leverage instant cross-border payment platforms to minimize liquidity buffers and foreign exchange exposure.
2. CBDC Integration: Financial institutions must prepare internal core banking systems to interface with emerging wholesale CBDC payment rails.
3. Merchant Fee Reduction: Enterprise merchants can lower payment processing overhead by adopting account-to-account (A2A) open banking checkout solutions.

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