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How Biden, Harris and Trump would change Social Security and Medicare

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A voter fills out a ballot at a polling station on Election Day in Falls Church, Virginia, U.S., November 7, 2023. 

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

When it comes to the November election, there is one issue that is at the top of voters’ wish lists: Social Security.

Despite political division, most Americans — 87% — want action to address Social Security’s trust fund shortfall, according to the National Institute on Retirement Security. The group polled 1,208 individuals aged 25 and older.

Meanwhile, 69% of Americans said a candidate’s stance on Social Security will be a major factor in how they vote in the presidential election, according to Nationwide Retirement Institute.

It polled 1,831 adults age 18 and up who “currently receive or expect to receive Social Security.”

While experts mostly agree a fix is needed, they are divided on how that should happen — whether it be through tax increases, benefit cuts or a combination of both.

The deadline to fix the programs will only grow more urgent during the next presidential administration.

“If something is going to happen before the eleventh hour, it is going to require presidential leadership,” said Emerson Sprick, associate director of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Economic Policy Program. “That’s something we haven’t seen on this issue for a very long time.”

Projected depletion dates are looming

The latest projections from the Social Security trustees estimate the program’s combined funds may run out in 2035. At that time, just 83% of benefits may be payable. The projected depletion date for the trust fund used to pay retirement benefits is even sooner in 2033.

Medicare also faces a looming depletion date for its hospital insurance fund, which is projected to be able to pay 100% of benefits until 2036.

It is up to lawmakers to address the shortfalls before the projected depletion dates, when the programs will face across-the-board benefit cuts.

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The looming depletion dates come as the programs face other pressures.

Retirees are now reaching “peak 65” — with more than 11,200 individuals turning 65 every day.

As more individuals rely on Social Security and Medicare, the gross national debt has now climbed to a record $35 trillion.

“We should fix our dangerously close to insolvent Social Security and Medicare trust funds,” Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, said in a statement.

Biden can ‘show leadership’ before presidency ends

U.S. President Joe Biden is flanked by family members as he speaks about the release of Americans detained in Russia during brief remarks at the White House in Washington, U.S., August 1, 2024. 

Nathan Howard | Reuters

While the focus is on the presidential campaigns, President Joe Biden still has a window of opportunity to work to address Social Security and Medicare.

“Biden has a really fantastic opportunity, if he wants to get the ball rolling and show some leadership on the issue in the lame duck,” Sprick said.

Some Democrats have proposed raising taxes for the wealthy and increasing benefits.

Meanwhile, a bipartisan group of lawmakers has proposed forming a commission to identify next steps. But those efforts like those have yet to prompt action, which would likely require compromises.

“The folks in Congress need leadership and a little bit of cover from the top of the ticket,” Sprick said.

Biden publicly vowed to protect Social Security and Medicare and “make the wealthy pay their fair share” during his March State of the Union address.

“We could extend the life of Medicare’s Trust Fund permanently — without cutting benefits — if Congressional Republicans would get on board with the President’s historic budget proposal to raise taxes on the wealthy,” said White House spokesperson Robyn Patterson.

“The President’s budget also clearly states his principles for strengthening Social Security,” Patterson said. “He looks forward to working with Congress to responsibly strengthen Social Security by ensuring that high-income individuals pay their fair share, without increasing taxes on anyone making less than $400,000 or cutting benefits.”

Trump wants to eliminate some Social Security taxes

Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump holds a campaign rally in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, U.S., July 31, 2024. 

Elizabeth Frantz | Reuters

Former President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Thursday, in all capital letters, “Seniors should not pay tax on Social Security!”

Experts say the post likely refers to the taxes Social Security beneficiaries may owe on their benefit income. The Trump campaign did not return a request for comment by press time.

Exactly how much Social Security beneficiaries pay in taxes is based on their “combined income,” which includes adjusted gross income, nontaxable interest and half of their Social Security benefits.

For individuals with $25,000 to $34,000 in combined income — or married couples who file jointly with between $32,000 and $44,000 — up to 50% of benefits are taxed.

For individuals with more than $34,000 in combined income — or married couples with more than $44,000 — up to 85% of benefits may be taxable.

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Those thresholds are not adjusted for inflation. Consequently, as time passes and benefit income increases, more beneficiaries are liable for taxes on their benefits.

Nixing those levies would allow beneficiaries to keep more of their benefit income. But it would also reduce revenues for both Social Security and Medicare by about $1.6 trillion to $1.8 trillion between fiscal years 2026 and 2035, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates.

Like Biden, Trump has mostly promised not to cut Social Security. Yet in a March CNBC interview, Trump said he would consider cutting “entitlements,” which may refer to Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid.

“There is a lot you can do in terms of entitlements, in terms of cutting and in terms of also the theft and bad management of entitlements,” Trump told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

Harris opposes benefit cuts

Democratic presidential candidate, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally at the Georgia State Convocation Center on July 30, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. 

Megan Varner | Getty Images

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Personal Finance

Navigating Residential Real Estate and Mortgage Strategy

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The 2026 residential real estate market presents a nuanced landscape for homebuyers, current homeowners, and property investors. With benchmark mortgage rates adjusting alongside Treasury yield movements, real estate strategies require careful evaluation of borrowing costs, local market supply dynamics, and long-term home equity management.

Adapting Homebuying Strategies to Mortgage Dynamics
Prospective homebuyers are adapting to fixed 30-year mortgage rates hovering between 6.0% and 6.8%. While borrowing costs are elevated compared to historical lows seen in prior decades, moderating home price growth across several regional markets is creating selective opportunities for buyers with strong credit profiles.

Homebuyers are increasingly utilizing strategic mortgage options:
– Builder Rate Buydowns: Purchasing new construction homes where developers offer temporary or permanent interest rate buydowns to lower initial monthly payments.
– Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs): Selecting 5/1 or 7/1 hybrid ARMs with strict rate caps for short-to-medium-term housing plans.
– Points and Financing Structure: Evaluating upfront discount point purchases to secure lower fixed interest rates over the loan term.

Home Equity Utilization and Renovation Financing
For existing homeowners holding low-rate legacy mortgages, moving to a new property often entails relinquishing favorable debt terms. Consequently, many homeowners are choosing to renovate and expand existing properties rather than sell.

Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs) and home equity loans allow homeowners to access accumulated property equity for capital improvements without disturbing their primary mortgage rate. Utilizing home equity for value-adding property renovations can enhance living space while increasing long-term property values.

Strategic Real Estate Investment Guidelines
For residential property investors, achieving positive cash flow requires strict underwriting standards:
– Stress-Test Operating Expenses: Factor in rising property insurance premiums, local property taxes, and ongoing maintenance reserves.
– Focus on High-Growth Rental Markets: Target regions experiencing steady job growth and sustained tenant demand.
– Maintain Cash Buffers: Ensure property portfolios maintain dedicated emergency reserves to navigate unexpected vacancy periods or major repairs.

Actionable Homeownership Steps
1. Evaluate Complete Monthly Housing Costs: Assess property taxes, homeowners insurance, and HOA fees alongside principal and interest.
2. Leverage Renovation Equity Carefully: Utilize equity loans strategically for renovations that generate long-term property value.
3. Prioritize Credit Score Optimization: Secure top-tier credit scores prior to mortgage pre-approval to qualify for competitive lender pricing tiers.

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Personal Finance

$20,000 Caution Bond Requirement for US Visa Applications imposed on 50 Countries

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The United States Department of State has officially implemented a revised visa policy introducing a mandatory posting requirement for caution payments of up to $20,000 on select foreign travel applications. Under the updated regulatory framework, consular officials are authorized to require temporary nonimmigrant visa applicants from targeted foreign countries to post a refundable financial bond of $20,000 as a condition for visa issuance. The policy mechanism is designed to address diplomatic concerns regarding high overstay rates among temporary visitor, business, and educational visa categories.

The caution bond pilot program applies selectively to foreign nationals from designated countries whose diplomatic entities record historical visa overstay rates exceeding established federal thresholds. Under administrative guidelines published by the State Department, the full financial deposit is posted directly to a dedicated federal escrow account prior to final visa issuance. The entire caution payment is automatically refunded to the applicant upon verified proof of timely departure from the United States in strict compliance with the authorized duration of stay. Conversely, failure to depart within the legal timeframe results in full forfeiture of the posted financial bond to the United States government.

Diplomatic representatives and travel policy experts have expressed varying perspectives regarding the operational implementation of the caution bond system. Administration officials emphasize that the measure serves as an effective, market-based incentive to enforce international travel compliance and preserve domestic immigration security standards. However, international trade organizations and foreign diplomatic missions have raised concerns regarding the financial burden imposed on legitimate business travelers, foreign students, and commercial partners from developing nations.

The United States finalized the rule to make the temporary visa bond program permanent, taking effect on August 3, 2026. The updated permanent regulation replaces the prior 12-month pilot, eliminates the lowest $5,000 tier, and raises the maximum required bond amount to $20,000 for specific B-1/B-2 business and tourist visa applicants.

Here is the list of the 50 countries on the list as o August 3, 2026

African Nations (31 Countries)

  • Algeria
  • Angola
  • Benin
  • Botswana
  • Burundi
  • Cabo Verde (Cape Verde)
  • Central African Republic
  • Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast)
  • Djibouti
  • Ethiopia
  • Gabon
  • The Gambia
  • Ghana
  • Guinea
  • Guinea-Bissau
  • Lesotho
  • Malawi
  • Mauritania
  • Mauritius
  • Mozambique
  • Namibia
  • Nigeria
  • São Tomé and Príncipe
  • Senegal
  • Seychelles
  • Tanzania
  • Togo
  • Tunisia
  • Uganda
  • Zambia
  • Zimbabwe

Asian & Eastern European Nations (11 Countries)

  • Bangladesh
  • Bhutan
  • Cambodia
  • Georgia
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Mongolia
  • Nepal
  • Papua New Guinea
  • Tajikistan
  • Turkmenistan
  • Uzbekistan

Caribbean & Latin American Nations (5 Countries)

  • Antigua and Barbuda
  • Cuba
  • Dominica
  • Grenada
  • Venezuela

Oceanian Nations (3 Countries)

  • Fiji
  • Tonga
  • Vanuatu

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Next-Generation Retirement Planning: Managing Longevity Risk and Variable Income Streams

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Retirement planning strategies are evolving in 2026 to address increased life expectancies, shifting dynamic market conditions, and the transition away from traditional defined-benefit pensions. Individual investors and financial advisors are abandoning rigid retirement models in favor of flexible, multi-asset strategies designed to mitigate longevity risk and preserve purchasing power over multi-decade retirement horizons.

Mitigating Longevity Risk with Dynamic Asset Allocation
As average life expectancies extend past eighty-five years, one of the primary financial risks facing retirees is outliving their accumulated wealth. Traditional fixed income allocations—such as the standard 60/40 equity-to-bond portfolio—are being reevaluated to ensure portfolios generate sufficient capital growth alongside reliable income.

Financial planners recommend maintaining a meaningful equity allocation throughout retirement to offset long-term inflation erosion. High-dividend equity funds, global real estate investment trusts (REITs), and inflation-indexed Treasuries are combined to create diversified portfolios that deliver both growth and income stability.

The Transition to Dynamic Withdrawal Strategies
The classic “4% safe withdrawal rule” is increasingly replaced by dynamic withdrawal strategies that adapt annually based on market performance. Under a dynamic withdrawal framework, retirees adjust their annual distribution rates within pre-set caps and floors:
– Market Upside: During strong market returns, retirees can increase discretionary spending or fund family legacy gifts.
– Market Downturns: During market pullbacks, spending distributions are temporarily reduced to prevent sequence-of-returns risk and preserve core investment principal.

Guaranteed Lifetime Income Options and Deferred Annuities
To establish a guaranteed baseline for essential living expenses, individuals are incorporating modern fixed-indexed and deferred longevity annuities into their broader retirement architectures. Modern annuity structures offer competitive return caps, transparent fee schedules, and inflation-adjustment options.

By funding essential expenses—such as housing, healthcare, and insurance—with guaranteed income streams from Social Security, pensions, and annuities, retirees can manage discretionary investment portfolios with greater flexibility and lower emotional stress during market volatility.

Actionable Steps for Future Retirees
1. Calculate Baseline Retirement Expenses: Determine fixed living costs and map guaranteed income sources to cover essential expenditures.
2. Adopt Flexible Withdrawal Rules: Implement dynamic spending rules to protect investment principal against market downturns.
3. Incorporate Inflation-Protected Assets: Maintain exposure to dividend-growing equities and inflation-indexed bonds to safeguard long-term purchasing power.

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