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Tariffs put Fed in tough spot, raise growth and price fears

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An aggressive suite of tariffs announced Wednesday by President Donald Trump will significantly complicate the Federal Reserve’s job as it struggles to quash inflation and avoid an economic downturn, likely keeping officials in wait-and-see mode.

“They’re basically our worst-case scenario,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, who said the tariffs raised the likelihood of an economic slowdown in the U.S.

But Swonk and other economists said Fed officials will likely hold off on lowering rates to cushion the economy while they assess the potential impact of the tariffs on inflation.

The levies, which are harsher than many analysts were anticipating, are expected to raise prices on trillions of dollars in goods imported each year if left in place. A full blown trade war, with escalating retaliatory tariffs between the U.S. and other countries, could disrupt supply chains, reignite inflation and worsen a souring economic outlook.

Trump said Wednesday the U.S. would apply a minimum 10% levy on all imports to the U.S., but tariffs on many countries will far exceed that. China’s cumulative effective rate is estimated to exceed 50%. The European Union will have a 20% levy and Vietnam is seeing a 46% tariff.

Bloomberg Economics estimated the new levies could lift the average effective tariff rate in the U.S. to around 22%, from 2.3% in 2024. Omair Sharif, president of Inflation Insights LLC, calculated a level of 25% to 30%.

For Fed officials still working to rein in the price gains that spiked during the pandemic, however, the inflationary fallout from the president’s actions may limit policymakers’ ability to step in and bolster the economy. 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at a conference Friday in Arlington Virginia.

“It puts the Fed between a rock and a hard place,” said Jay Bryson, chief economist for Wells Fargo & Co. “On the one hand, if growth slows and the unemployment rate comes up, they want to be more accommodative, they want to be cutting rates. On the other hand, if inflation goes up from here, they kind of want to be raising rates. So it really puts them in a tough spot.”

Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP, agreed the new regime was far tougher than many analysts expected and will raise the probability of a US recession.

“I expect inflation into 3% to 4% range by the end of the year,” he said, adding the Fed isn’t likely to provide a cushion to the economy with rate cuts in the near to medium term. “The act taken today by the White House puts the Fed in much more difficult position, given the pressure on both sides of its mandate.”

By Thursday morning, some economists had lowered their projections for the number of interest-rate cuts they see in 2025. Morgan Stanley said they now expect no cuts this year, down from one.

Investors, however, tilted the other way. Fed funds futures, possibly reflecting higher recession fears, implied the outlook for rate reductions had increased. That market now points to three to four cuts this year. 

The Fed left borrowing costs unchanged last month. Policymakers have emphasized the labor market is healthy and the economy is solid overall. But the uncertainty caused by Trump’s rapidly-evolving trade policies had stoked fears of higher inflation and tanked sentiment among consumers and businesses even before Wednesday’s announcement.

A closely watched survey from the University of Michigan showed consumers’ outlook for inflation over the next 5 to 10 years rose in March to its highest level in more than three decades. The outlook for personal finances declined to a record low.

Many business leaders are in wait-and-see mode, putting investment plans on hold until there is more clarity in the outlook for tariff policy and tax legislation. Forecasters have also downgraded their growth outlook for the year, according to the latest Bloomberg survey of economists.

A substantial escalation in tariff tensions with back-and-forth retaliatory levies against major trading partners could slow economic activity in the U.S. and globally, economists said.

“If you get that escalation scenario, then you’re just talking about fundamentally less productive economies around the world,” Seth Carpenter, chief global economist at Morgan Stanley, said Wednesday morning on Bloomberg TV ahead of the tariff announcement. “It’s not a zero-sum game. It could actually be a net loss for the whole global order.”

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Accounting

FASB Standardizes Carbon Offsets Accounting Rules

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FASB Standardizes Carbon Offsets Accounting Rules

In a decisive move toward standardized environmental financial reporting, accounting standards boards issued updated implementation guidance during the week ending July 25, 2026, regarding the formal recognition and valuation of corporate carbon offsets and environmental credits. The revised frameworks establish precise rules for how enterprises must measure, record, and disclose carbon credits on balance sheets, eliminating years of inconsistent reporting practices across public capital markets.

Under the finalized accounting standard, purchased carbon offsets can no longer be categorized under vague administrative expenses or unstandardized intangible asset accounts. Instead, organizations must classify environmental credits based on underlying operational intent—distinguishing between credits held for immediate compliance compliance obligations, long-term offset obligations, or active market trading. Furthermore, companies are required to evaluate carbon holdings for fair value impairment at the end of each reporting period, ensuring that depreciated or low-quality environmental credits do not distort corporate asset values.

The standardized rules carry significant implications for corporate audit committees and chief accounting officers. External audit firms are implementing rigorous verification protocols to validate the physical legitimacy, legal ownership, and scientific permanence of carbon credits claimed on balance sheets. Inaccurate or overstated carbon accounting claims now carry substantial financial litigation risk, alongside potential regulatory enforcement for misleading ESG disclosures.

To remain fully compliant, corporate accounting departments must establish centralized carbon tracking systems integrated into primary standard ERP ledgers. Accounting teams that proactively adopt standardized environmental reporting protocols will build investor credibility, streamline annual audit processes, and insulate their organizations against evolving regulatory scrutiny.

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Accounting

Automated Tax Compliance Tools Reduce Risk

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Automated Tax Compliance Tools Reduce Risk

Corporate tax departments reached a critical juncture in automated operational management. With nations worldwide rapidly enacting digital service taxes, localized value-added tax (VAT) mandates, and real-time electronic invoicing requirements, manual tax calculations have become obsolete. Modern corporate tax divisions are aggressively deploying AI-driven tax engine software to automate complex cross-border indirect tax calculations in real time.

The imperative for automated tax compliance stems from the sheer complexity of current trade policies and multi-jurisdictional commerce. E-commerce platforms, software vendors, and global manufacturers face constantly changing regional tax rates, statutory exemption rules, and cross-border tariff structures. Automated tax engines embed directly into enterprise enterprise resource planning (ERP) architectures, automatically applying correct tax codes at the point of sale, calculating real-time withholding amounts, and generating compliant e-invoices.

Automated audit trail generation represents another key advantage of modern tax tech integration. Advanced compliance platforms log every transactional tax determination on immutable digital ledgers, providing tax authorities with transparent, self-verifying audit trails. This capability drastically reduces the operational duration and administrative cost of corporate tax audits, protecting enterprises against severe penalties resulting from calculation errors or missed reporting deadlines.

For chief financial officers and tax directors, investing in automated tax compliance is a vital operational risk mitigation strategy. Automating routine tax calculations frees high-level accounting professionals to focus on strategic tax planning, transfer pricing optimization, and risk management in an increasingly complex global economic environment.

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Accounting

Continuous Auditing Transforms Corporate ERPs

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continuous auditing transforms corporate erps

As corporate accounting departments cross the threshold into late July 2026, the adoption of continuous, automated auditing systems has reached a definitive turning point. Driven by advances in artificial intelligence and deep integration with modern Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) platforms, leading finance organizations are moving away from traditional, periodic post-hoc audits in favor of real-time, 100% transactional verification. This technological transition is redefining internal control environments, reducing compliance costs, and eliminating the structural delays inherent in legacy quarterly closing processes.

Unlike traditional auditing frameworks that rely on statistical sampling—a process that inevitably leaves operational blind spots—continuous auditing software monitors operational data feeds continuously. Every purchase order, electronic invoice, payroll disbursement, and cross-border wire transfer is automatically cross-referenced against established corporate governance parameters, regulatory tax schedules, and anti-fraud algorithms in real time. Anomalies or unauthorized ledger entries are flagged instantly, allowing internal audit teams to investigate and remediate compliance gaps immediately rather than months after the close of a financial period.

The implications for executive financial management are far-reaching. By embedding continuous verification directly into daily transaction workflows, chief financial officers gain uninterrupted visibility into the organization’s true financial standing. Real-time balance sheet auditing eliminates the severe operational bottlenecks associated with month-end and quarter-end financial reconciliations, freeing accounting professionals to focus on strategic financial modeling, tax planning, and capital allocation rather than manual data entry and spreadsheet consolidation.

However, implementing continuous auditing requires accounting leadership to invest heavily in data governance and technical upskilling. Internal audit teams must evolve from manual ledger reviewers into system architects capable of auditing complex algorithms and validating automated data pipelines. Accounting firms and corporate controllers that master continuous auditing will establish a resilient compliance framework capable of meeting stringent international regulatory standards with total transparency.

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