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Trump’s pivot on Nvidia chips gives China a leg up over the U.S. in the AI race

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Nvidia logo and Chinese flag are seen in this illustration taken Aug. 27, 2025.

Dado Ruvic | Reuters

BEIJING — U.S. President Donald Trump’s move to allow Nvidia to ship a more advanced artificial intelligence chip to China will significantly boost Beijing’s tech capabilities, according to analysts.

That signals a shift in policy as the U.S., over the past several years, has ramped up restrictions on Chinese access to advanced semiconductors. Though the curbs have not kept Chinese companies such as DeepSeek from finding ways to build AI models that rival their U.S. peers, often at lower operating costs.

“Compute is our main advantage,” Rush Doshi, assistant professor at Georgetown University, said on social media platform X, noting that China already has an edge over the U.S. in electrical power, engineers and other areas.

“By giving this up we increase the odds the world runs on Chinese AI,” said Doshi, who was a deputy senior director for China and Taiwan affairs with the National Security Council under the Biden administration.

Trump’s on Monday said in a post on his Truth Social platform that Nvidia can ship a more advanced chip called the H200 to “approved customers in China” and other countries — on condition the U.S. gets a 25% cut. That’s up from the 15% rate agreed to in the summer.

He noted that Nvidia’s more advanced Blackwell and Rubin chips were not part of the China deal.

“The Biden administration forced our Great Companies to spend BILLIONS OF DOLLARS building “degraded” products that nobody wanted, a terrible idea that slowed innovation, and hurt the American Worker,” Trump said.

Nvidia had created a less powerful chip called the H20 to comply with U.S. rules, but had to halt shipments to China in April.

Dan Ives: White House is realizing it has to give Nvidia access to China

“This move is giving China a bunch of advanced AI compute it wouldn’t otherwise have,” said Tim Fist, director of emerging technology at Washington, D.C.-based think tank Institute for Progress.

“The new Chinese stack will be NVIDIA chips, Tencent/Baidu/Alibaba cloud, and DeepSeek/Qwen/Kimi models,” Fist said in a social media post on X, noting that these AI capabilities will then compete with U.S. rivals overseas.

The think tank on Sunday published a report that said the U.S. advantage over China in AI compute next year diminishes from around 10 times to at most 5 times, if Nvidia were allowed to export H200 chips.

The H200 can help many Chinese AI developers improve their models, making the chip “far more useful and effective” than the H20, said George Chen, partner and co-chair, digital practice, The Asia Group.

He pointed out that Trump’s decision is a sign of improving Washington-Beijing relations as the U.S. leader plans to visit China in April. Nvidia “has a good time window to sell H200 but it won’t be … forever.”

China aims for tech self-reliance

Faced with U.S. restrictions, China has sought to reduce its reliance on foreign technology. The country’s upcoming 5-year plan that kicks off next year underscored how policies and government funds will increasingly go toward homegrown chips and AI applications.

Chinese telecom giant Huawei in September revealed its multi-year plans to create chips that would have the most computing power in the world when clustered at scale, according to the company.

“China will continue to do everything in its power to reduce its dependency on US AI chips, even while it retains access to US chips,” Chris McGuire, a senior fellow for China and emerging technologies at the Council on Foreign Relations, said on X. He pointed out that it will still take time as China doesn’t plan to make a chip better than Nvidia’s H200 until at least the fourth quarter of 2027.

Trump’s decision “negates the biggest U.S. advantage over China in AI,” McGuire said, calling the move “a seachange in U.S. policy, and a significant strategic mistake.”

The White House Office of Science and Technology Policy did not immediately respond to a CNBC request for comment.

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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has often spoken in public about China’s improving AI capabilities, and called on the U.S. to let the company sell its products to the country.

U.S. restrictions so far have not kept China completely shut off from advanced ships.

Separately, the U.S. Department of Justice on Monday announced it had seized more than $50 million in advanced graphics processing units meant for China and other restricted areas. The release said people apprehended and others “exported and attempted to export” at least $160 million worth of Nvidia H100 and H200 chips between Oct. 2024 and May 2025.

Nvidia shares rose 2% in after-hours following Trump’s post. Chinese AI chip names Moore Threads climbed more than 2% and Cambricon rose by over 1% in the mainland market, while SMIC shares fell more than 2% in Hong Kong trading.

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Private Credit Expansion and Regulatory Oversight in 2026 Capital Markets

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The global private credit market has solidified its role as a fundamental pillar of enterprise finance, expanding rapidly across middle-market lending, asset-backed finance, and infrastructure financing. As non-bank financial institutions capture a larger share of corporate debt origination, global regulatory bodies are increasing oversight to evaluate market transparency and systemic risk interconnections.

Growth Drivers in Direct Lending
Direct lending platforms have continued to attract substantial institutional allocations from pension funds, sovereign wealth entities, and insurance companies seeking attractive risk-adjusted yields. Private debt funds offer corporate borrowers customized financing structures, faster execution timelines, and confidentiality compared to syndicated loan markets.

In 2026, private credit managers are increasingly financing larger corporate transactions, providing multi-billion-dollar credit facilities for buyout deals and corporate restructurings. The flexibility of private debt contracts—featuring unitranche pricing and tailored covenant packages—has made direct lending the preferred capital source for middle-market enterprise sponsors.

Regulatory Scrutiny and Systemic Risk Assessment
The rapid growth of non-bank intermediation has drawn heightened scrutiny from financial regulators in North America and Europe. Because private debt agreements are negotiated privately without public exchange disclosures, central banks are evaluating potential vulnerabilities related to asset valuation consistency and fund liquidity profiles.

Regulatory agencies are introducing guidelines aimed at improving reporting standards for private investment vehicles managing institutional assets. Key focus areas include monitoring leverage ratios within private credit funds and evaluating indirect credit exposures between commercial banking institutions and private debt funds.

Navigating Elevated Refinancing Costs
With benchmark interest rates remaining elevated, private debt borrowers face higher debt service obligations on floating-rate credit facilities. Financial advisory firms report an increase in proactive liability management strategies, including payment-in-kind (PIK) interest options, equity infusions from sponsors, and covenant modifications.

Private credit managers with deep operational capabilities are actively working alongside portfolio companies to optimize working capital and maintain cash flow coverage ratios during periods of higher borrowing costs.

Key Financial Takeaways
1. Mainstream Asset Class: Private credit has expanded beyond niche alternative asset status into a core corporate finance solution.
2. Enhanced Transparency Standards: Regulatory frameworks are evolving toward greater disclosure requirements for private debt managers.
3. Proactive Risk Management: Lenders and sponsors must prioritize debt sustainability and active portfolio monitoring amid high benchmark rates.

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Venture Capital and Startup Valuations in 2026: Focus on Unit Economics and Sustainable Growth

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The global venture capital (VC) ecosystem is operating under a disciplined investment framework in 2026. Following years of valuation adjustments and shifting liquidity environments, venture capital firms and private equity investors are prioritizing proven unit economics, positive cash flow pathways, and capital efficiency over rapid, unconstrained user acquisition.

The Shift Toward Disciplined Startup Valuations
Early-stage and growth-stage startup valuations have stabilized at sustainable historical averages. Venture capital partners are conducting rigorous due diligence processes before deploying capital, scrutinizing gross margins, customer acquisition costs (CAC), net revenue retention (NRR), and lifetime value (LTV) metrics.

While total capital deployed remains robust, seed and Series A funding rounds are taking longer to finalize. Founders are expected to demonstrate clear product-market fit and defensible intellectual property rather than relying on top-line revenue projections unsupported by strong underlying economics.

M&A Activity and Liquidity Solutions
The market for venture-backed exits is seeing renewed momentum through strategic mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and secondary market liquidity facilities. Established corporate enterprises are acquiring high-performing technology startups to integrate proprietary artificial intelligence models and specialized software solutions into their product ecosystems.

Simultaneously, secondary market transactions have become an essential liquidity mechanism for early employees and institutional investors. Specialized secondary funds are purchasing pre-IPO shares at discounted valuations, providing liquidity opportunities while companies remain private for longer durations.

Sector Allocation: Deep Tech, Clean Energy, and Enterprise Automation
Venture capital investment is heavily concentrated in deep technology and capital-intensive engineering sectors. High-growth investment themes include:
– Next-Generation Semiconductors: Hardware startups designing specialized AI processors and energy-efficient microchip architectures.
– Clean Technology: Battery chemistry innovations, carbon capture solutions, and grid-scale energy storage startups.
– Enterprise Process Automation: Software platforms that automate complex workflows in healthcare, financial services, and industrial logistics.

Key Insights for Entrepreneurs and Investors
1. Prioritize Capital Efficiency: Startups focused on achieving operational profitability receive higher valuation premiums from institutional investors.
2. Strategic Exit Planning: Corporate M&A is serving as a primary exit route for venture-backed startups navigating prolonged IPO windows.
3. Focus on High-Moat Technologies: Deep tech and proprietary software architectures are securing the majority of growth-stage capital allocations.

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The Evolution of Digital Payments: Cross-Border Settlement and Central Bank Digital Currencies in 2026

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The infrastructure supporting global commerce is undergoing a major technological upgrade as real-time digital payment rails, cross-border settlement solutions, and Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) pilot programs achieve widespread commercial adoption. Financial institutions and fintech developers are reimagining payment processing to eliminate friction, lower transaction fees, and accelerate settlement speed.

Transforming Cross-Border Settlement Infrastructure
For decades, international corporate payments relied on legacy correspondent banking networks characterized by multi-day settlement delays, opaque fee structures, and high foreign exchange markups. In 2026, modern cross-border payment networks are enabling near-instantaneous settlement for international trade transactions.

Financial technology platforms are leveraging distributed ledger technology and real-time gross settlement (RTGS) interconnections to settle transactions in seconds. International trade participants benefit from reduced working capital requirements and minimized foreign exchange volatility risks during cross-border transfers.

Commercial Expansion of Central Bank Digital Currencies
Central banks representing major global economies are advancing CBDC initiatives from research phases into active commercial deployment. Wholesale CBDCs—designed specifically for interbank settlement and financial institution clearing—are demonstrating substantial efficiency gains in domestic and international transactions.

At the retail level, several nations have introduced public digital currency options alongside existing commercial banking networks. These sovereign digital payment channels aim to expand financial inclusion, lower consumer transaction fees, and improve the efficiency of government-to-citizen financial disbursements.

Open Banking and Embedded Finance Ecosystems
Alongside settlement infrastructure upgrades, open banking regulations and embedded finance frameworks are transforming merchant-consumer interactions. Commercial businesses across retail, travel, and business-to-business (B2B) services are integrating seamless payment APIs directly into their customer software interfaces.

Through open banking frameworks, consumers can initiate secure bank-to-bank payments without relying on traditional credit card networks, significantly reducing merchant processing fees. Integrated Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL) options and point-of-sale credit facilities continue to expand, driving higher conversion rates for digital commerce platforms.

Strategic Financial Takeaways
1. Treasury Optimization: Corporate treasurers should leverage instant cross-border payment platforms to minimize liquidity buffers and foreign exchange exposure.
2. CBDC Integration: Financial institutions must prepare internal core banking systems to interface with emerging wholesale CBDC payment rails.
3. Merchant Fee Reduction: Enterprise merchants can lower payment processing overhead by adopting account-to-account (A2A) open banking checkout solutions.

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