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Trump’s pivot on Nvidia chips gives China a leg up over the U.S. in the AI race

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Nvidia logo and Chinese flag are seen in this illustration taken Aug. 27, 2025.

Dado Ruvic | Reuters

BEIJING — U.S. President Donald Trump’s move to allow Nvidia to ship a more advanced artificial intelligence chip to China will significantly boost Beijing’s tech capabilities, according to analysts.

That signals a shift in policy as the U.S., over the past several years, has ramped up restrictions on Chinese access to advanced semiconductors. Though the curbs have not kept Chinese companies such as DeepSeek from finding ways to build AI models that rival their U.S. peers, often at lower operating costs.

“Compute is our main advantage,” Rush Doshi, assistant professor at Georgetown University, said on social media platform X, noting that China already has an edge over the U.S. in electrical power, engineers and other areas.

“By giving this up we increase the odds the world runs on Chinese AI,” said Doshi, who was a deputy senior director for China and Taiwan affairs with the National Security Council under the Biden administration.

Trump’s on Monday said in a post on his Truth Social platform that Nvidia can ship a more advanced chip called the H200 to “approved customers in China” and other countries — on condition the U.S. gets a 25% cut. That’s up from the 15% rate agreed to in the summer.

He noted that Nvidia’s more advanced Blackwell and Rubin chips were not part of the China deal.

“The Biden administration forced our Great Companies to spend BILLIONS OF DOLLARS building “degraded” products that nobody wanted, a terrible idea that slowed innovation, and hurt the American Worker,” Trump said.

Nvidia had created a less powerful chip called the H20 to comply with U.S. rules, but had to halt shipments to China in April.

Dan Ives: White House is realizing it has to give Nvidia access to China

“This move is giving China a bunch of advanced AI compute it wouldn’t otherwise have,” said Tim Fist, director of emerging technology at Washington, D.C.-based think tank Institute for Progress.

“The new Chinese stack will be NVIDIA chips, Tencent/Baidu/Alibaba cloud, and DeepSeek/Qwen/Kimi models,” Fist said in a social media post on X, noting that these AI capabilities will then compete with U.S. rivals overseas.

The think tank on Sunday published a report that said the U.S. advantage over China in AI compute next year diminishes from around 10 times to at most 5 times, if Nvidia were allowed to export H200 chips.

The H200 can help many Chinese AI developers improve their models, making the chip “far more useful and effective” than the H20, said George Chen, partner and co-chair, digital practice, The Asia Group.

He pointed out that Trump’s decision is a sign of improving Washington-Beijing relations as the U.S. leader plans to visit China in April. Nvidia “has a good time window to sell H200 but it won’t be … forever.”

China aims for tech self-reliance

Faced with U.S. restrictions, China has sought to reduce its reliance on foreign technology. The country’s upcoming 5-year plan that kicks off next year underscored how policies and government funds will increasingly go toward homegrown chips and AI applications.

Chinese telecom giant Huawei in September revealed its multi-year plans to create chips that would have the most computing power in the world when clustered at scale, according to the company.

“China will continue to do everything in its power to reduce its dependency on US AI chips, even while it retains access to US chips,” Chris McGuire, a senior fellow for China and emerging technologies at the Council on Foreign Relations, said on X. He pointed out that it will still take time as China doesn’t plan to make a chip better than Nvidia’s H200 until at least the fourth quarter of 2027.

Trump’s decision “negates the biggest U.S. advantage over China in AI,” McGuire said, calling the move “a seachange in U.S. policy, and a significant strategic mistake.”

The White House Office of Science and Technology Policy did not immediately respond to a CNBC request for comment.

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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has often spoken in public about China’s improving AI capabilities, and called on the U.S. to let the company sell its products to the country.

U.S. restrictions so far have not kept China completely shut off from advanced ships.

Separately, the U.S. Department of Justice on Monday announced it had seized more than $50 million in advanced graphics processing units meant for China and other restricted areas. The release said people apprehended and others “exported and attempted to export” at least $160 million worth of Nvidia H100 and H200 chips between Oct. 2024 and May 2025.

Nvidia shares rose 2% in after-hours following Trump’s post. Chinese AI chip names Moore Threads climbed more than 2% and Cambricon rose by over 1% in the mainland market, while SMIC shares fell more than 2% in Hong Kong trading.

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Tokenized Debt Shifts How Corporate Manage Short Term Liquidity

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Tokenized Debt Shifts Corporate Liquidity

The landscape of institutional debt markets is undergoing a profound structural shift on July 21, 2026, as major corporate issuers and commercial banks rapidly accelerate the deployment of tokenized debt instruments. Data published by leading capital market consortiums indicates that primary issuances of digital commercial paper and tokenized corporate bonds have reached record volumes this month. By moving legacy debt origination, underwriting, and secondary distribution onto permissioned distributed ledgers, corporate treasurers are unlocking unprecedented operational flexibility and instantaneous cross-border liquidity.

The adoption of tokenized debt is fundamentally altering how enterprise balance sheets manage short-term liquidity needs. Traditional corporate bond settlement cycles historically required multi-day clearing processes involving numerous intermediaries, custodial entities, and clearinghouses. Through programmable smart contracts on distributed ledgers, issuers can now execute atomic settlement—enabling continuous, 24/7 access to institutional capital pools. This instantaneous clearing mechanism drastically reduces counterparty risk, eliminates costly settlement friction, and allows treasury teams to dynamically optimize working capital in real time.

A major catalyst driving this institutional migration is the establishment of comprehensive digital asset regulatory frameworks across major financial hubs. Clear legal guidelines regarding ledger-based securities ownership have provided institutional compliance officers with the regulatory confidence necessary to transition multi-billion-dollar liquidity facilities onto digital platforms. Furthermore, the integration of automated regulatory reporting directly into token smart contracts simplifies ongoing compliance audits, ensuring that secondary market trades automatically enforce investor accreditation limits and tax withholding requirements.

For chief financial officers and institutional portfolio managers, tokenized debt represents a fundamental evolution in fixed-income strategy. Companies that embrace ledger-based debt structures gain direct access to a broader, global base of digital-native institutional investors while substantially reducing borrowing overhead. As ledger interoperability continues to improve across global exchanges, tokenized debt is poised to become the standard infrastructure for global corporate finance.

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Private Credit Expansion: How Alternative Lending Platforms Are Reshaping Corporate Liquidity

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How Alternative Lending Platforms Are Reshaping Corporate Liquidity

Private credit has firmly established itself as a foundational pillar of global financial markets in 2026, transitioning from an alternative asset class into a dominant mechanism for middle-market corporate financing. Reports published in mid-July 2026 show that direct lending assets under management have expanded significantly, as corporate borrowers increasingly bypass traditional syndication desks in favor of customized private debt solutions. This structural migration has fundamentally altered corporate liquidity dynamics, providing middle-market enterprises with reliable access to tailored capital packages even during periods of regulatory bank tightening.

The primary driver of this continued growth is the structural flexibility inherent in private debt agreements. Unlike public bond markets or conservative commercial bank loans—which often carry rigid covenants and slow underwriting timelines—private credit funds offer speed of execution, flexible payment-in-kind structures, and customized debt-service frameworks. For companies undertaking strategic acquisitions, capital expenditures, or complex balance sheet recapitalizations, the ability to negotiate directly with a unified syndicate of private lenders provides significant certainty and confidentiality.

However, the expansion of private credit is attracting heightened regulatory attention and risk scrutiny. Financial regulatory bodies are closely evaluating the lack of secondary market price discovery and the potential concentration of illiquidity risks within non-bank financial institutions. Because private debt instruments are held to maturity and marked to model rather than marked to market, evaluating real-time enterprise valuations during economic shifts requires robust internal credit assessment standards. Analysts note that as loan portfolios mature, performance variations between disciplined lenders and aggressive underwriters will become increasingly apparent.

For corporate financial officers and institutional portfolio managers, private credit represents both a powerful strategic tool and a vital diversification strategy. Borrowers must weigh the higher nominal coupon rates of private debt against the tangible value of operational flexibility and execution certainty. Meanwhile, investors must maintain rigorous credit due diligence, prioritizing funds with proven restructuring capabilities and deep operational expertise in underwriting resilient middle-market businesses.

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Tokenized Real-World Assets: Institutional Ledger Adoption Achieves Scale in July 2026

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Institutional Ledger Adoption Achieves Scale in July 2026

The integration of blockchain technology with legacy financial markets has reached a decisive tipping point in July 2026, driven by the rapid scaling of Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization. Major global investment banks, custodial entities, and asset managers are actively shifting sovereign debt, commercial paper, and private fund shares onto permissioned distributed ledgers. Recent industry data confirms that the aggregate market capitalization of tokenized treasury products and private credit funds has surged past major milestones, illustrating that ledger-based settlement is no longer experimental, but core financial infrastructure.

The fundamental value proposition of asset tokenization rests on operational efficiency, continuous liquidity, and automated compliance execution. By embedding regulatory checks, investor accreditation limits, and automated coupon distributions directly into smart contract code, financial institutions eliminate vast amounts of manual back-office reconciliation. Furthermore, fractionalized ownership structures allow high-value asset classes—such as prime commercial real estate and private equity funds—to be split into accessible units, significantly expanding liquidity pools and enabling real-time collateral optimization.

A key catalyst behind this institutional momentum is the establishment of comprehensive regulatory clarity across major financial jurisdictions. The implementation of standardized digital asset frameworks in the United States and Europe has provided institutional compliance officers with the legal certainty required to deploy capital on-chain. As a result, premier custodian banks are now offering unified digital asset custody, seamlessly bridging traditional securities depositories with programmable ledger ecosystems.

Looking forward, the maturation of tokenized assets will continue to transform secondary market trading and treasury management. Corporate treasurers can now yield-optimize idle cash in real time by moving into tokenized money market instruments that settle instantaneously on a 24/7 basis. To remain competitive, financial leaders must ensure their institutional architectures are interoperable with modern digital ledger protocols, positioning their organizations at the forefront of modern capital market efficiency.

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