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Trump’s tariffs raise tax-cut stakes with recession fears rising

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President Donald Trump’s much bigger-than-expected tariff hikes increase the urgency of the Republican tax-cut package now in negotiation, while threatening to undermine its boost to business and consumer confidence.

With the biggest selloff on Wall Street since the COVID crisis showcasing investor concerns about Trump’s plans to jack up U.S. tariffs against all trading partners, the stakes are now higher for the GOP tax package. A simple extension of the 2017 income-tax cuts that are set to expire at the end of this year would offer no new fiscal stimulus.

“The main question is what do they do that goes beyond extending the 2017 cuts?” said Alec Phillips, chief U.S. political economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. “The tariffs that are being discussed look like they are on a larger scale than the net tax cut that seems to be under consideration in Congress.”

Republicans appear aware of the potential trade-off. Senate GOP members this week unveiled a budget blueprint that provided for $1.5 trillion of extra tax reductions, on top of a $4 trillion extension of the 2017 measures. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, one of Trump’s main negotiators, said the administration wants to incorporate Trump’s campaign pledges of ending taxes on tips and overtime pay, added relief for seniors and deductions for purchases of U.S.-made cars. Lawmakers are also aiming to include business-tax breaks viewed among the most pro-growth of the proposals.

The White House chief economist, Stephen Miran, also argued on Friday that the administration’s planned wave of deregulation will have a “powerful, and arguably much more powerful,” effect than tariffs.

But the danger is the ramp-up in import levies tips the economy into a downward spiral that makes it tough for tax cuts, a reduced regulatory burden and even lower interest rates to quickly reverse. Bloomberg Economics estimated that, with the panoply of measures Trump has announced, the average U.S. tariff rate is poised to climb to almost 22%, or the highest in roughly a century.

The tariffs aren’t yet fully in place, and may be subject to negotiation. If they do proceed, most economists see a sizable boost to inflation. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Friday said the price effects could be temporary, or prove “more persistent.” With wage growth slowing, that implies a hit to household incomes. A consumption hit could in turn spur employers to lay off staff and curb investment — even in an environment of cheaper borrowing costs.

“Large shocks are usually associated with nonlinear effects and unintended consequences,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. economists led by Bruce Kasman wrote in a note to clients Thursday. The bank on Friday changed its call on the economic outlook and now sees the U.S. sliding into a recession this year — an outcome Bessent has rejected.

Then there’s the timing issue. The most powerful wave of tariff hikes yet is set to take effect April 9. But the tax-cut legislation is likely months away from passage. Bessent highlighted in a Bloomberg TV interview Wednesday that the Republicans have never been more united. Even so, the so-called reconciliation bill that Republicans are using to bypass Democrats involves a complicated process, requiring many steps before it’s enacted.

And even then, the tax relief is for next year’s income, while the tariff-related risks are surging in the here-and-now. 

“Whatever fiscal oomph that we may get is probably a 2026 reality, whereas the trade policy uncertainty is a headwind to growth is a 2025 reality,” said Richard Clarida, managing director and global economic adviser at Pacific Investment Management Co. and a former Treasury official in the George W. Bush administration. “In the narrow, limiting case, where you don’t do anything on tax on tips or this or that, then there’s essentially no real net stimulus.”

Bessent has repeatedly emphasized that the Trump administration’s priority is Main Street, not Wall Street, and he and the president have embraced the idea of a transition period to where the economy is propelled by the private-sector — rather than the government-led growth pattern they say prevailed under Joe Biden. High import levies could also offer a path toward better trade deals.

“Is this ugly right now? Is this distasteful? Absolutely,” said Phil Orlando, chief market strategist at the asset manager Federated Hermes. “But it was exactly the sort of thing they needed to do in order to get everyone’s attention and start to have a series of negotiations to try to level that playing field and boost economic growth through more normalized trade.”

The tariffs in the meantime will be bringing in fresh revenue to the government, which — while it cannot count toward paying for the tax cuts according to reconciliation-bill rules — may help reduce the outsize federal budget deficit. Bessent has estimated the tariff income at $300 billion to $600 billion a year.

A political risk for the Republicans, beyond any potential recession, is that import duties are regressive — disproportionately affecting lower-income buyers of overseas goods. That risks the working-class voters that helped the GOP secure both the White House and both chambers of Congress in November.

The Tax Foundation, a policy think tank, has estimated the announced tariffs will impose an average tax hike of over $1,900 per household for 2025. By comparison, Senate Majority Leader John Thune said a four-person household with $80,000 in earnings would avoid sending an additional $1,700 to the government next year thanks to the tax package.

The tariffs are “highly damaging and primarily burden low and middle income families,” said Samantha Jacoby, deputy director of federal tax policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. “Small targeted tax cuts for low income or middle income families doesn’t change that.”

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Accounting

FASB Standardizes Carbon Offsets Accounting Rules

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FASB Standardizes Carbon Offsets Accounting Rules

In a decisive move toward standardized environmental financial reporting, accounting standards boards issued updated implementation guidance during the week ending July 25, 2026, regarding the formal recognition and valuation of corporate carbon offsets and environmental credits. The revised frameworks establish precise rules for how enterprises must measure, record, and disclose carbon credits on balance sheets, eliminating years of inconsistent reporting practices across public capital markets.

Under the finalized accounting standard, purchased carbon offsets can no longer be categorized under vague administrative expenses or unstandardized intangible asset accounts. Instead, organizations must classify environmental credits based on underlying operational intent—distinguishing between credits held for immediate compliance compliance obligations, long-term offset obligations, or active market trading. Furthermore, companies are required to evaluate carbon holdings for fair value impairment at the end of each reporting period, ensuring that depreciated or low-quality environmental credits do not distort corporate asset values.

The standardized rules carry significant implications for corporate audit committees and chief accounting officers. External audit firms are implementing rigorous verification protocols to validate the physical legitimacy, legal ownership, and scientific permanence of carbon credits claimed on balance sheets. Inaccurate or overstated carbon accounting claims now carry substantial financial litigation risk, alongside potential regulatory enforcement for misleading ESG disclosures.

To remain fully compliant, corporate accounting departments must establish centralized carbon tracking systems integrated into primary standard ERP ledgers. Accounting teams that proactively adopt standardized environmental reporting protocols will build investor credibility, streamline annual audit processes, and insulate their organizations against evolving regulatory scrutiny.

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Accounting

Automated Tax Compliance Tools Reduce Risk

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Automated Tax Compliance Tools Reduce Risk

Corporate tax departments reached a critical juncture in automated operational management. With nations worldwide rapidly enacting digital service taxes, localized value-added tax (VAT) mandates, and real-time electronic invoicing requirements, manual tax calculations have become obsolete. Modern corporate tax divisions are aggressively deploying AI-driven tax engine software to automate complex cross-border indirect tax calculations in real time.

The imperative for automated tax compliance stems from the sheer complexity of current trade policies and multi-jurisdictional commerce. E-commerce platforms, software vendors, and global manufacturers face constantly changing regional tax rates, statutory exemption rules, and cross-border tariff structures. Automated tax engines embed directly into enterprise enterprise resource planning (ERP) architectures, automatically applying correct tax codes at the point of sale, calculating real-time withholding amounts, and generating compliant e-invoices.

Automated audit trail generation represents another key advantage of modern tax tech integration. Advanced compliance platforms log every transactional tax determination on immutable digital ledgers, providing tax authorities with transparent, self-verifying audit trails. This capability drastically reduces the operational duration and administrative cost of corporate tax audits, protecting enterprises against severe penalties resulting from calculation errors or missed reporting deadlines.

For chief financial officers and tax directors, investing in automated tax compliance is a vital operational risk mitigation strategy. Automating routine tax calculations frees high-level accounting professionals to focus on strategic tax planning, transfer pricing optimization, and risk management in an increasingly complex global economic environment.

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Accounting

Continuous Auditing Transforms Corporate ERPs

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continuous auditing transforms corporate erps

As corporate accounting departments cross the threshold into late July 2026, the adoption of continuous, automated auditing systems has reached a definitive turning point. Driven by advances in artificial intelligence and deep integration with modern Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) platforms, leading finance organizations are moving away from traditional, periodic post-hoc audits in favor of real-time, 100% transactional verification. This technological transition is redefining internal control environments, reducing compliance costs, and eliminating the structural delays inherent in legacy quarterly closing processes.

Unlike traditional auditing frameworks that rely on statistical sampling—a process that inevitably leaves operational blind spots—continuous auditing software monitors operational data feeds continuously. Every purchase order, electronic invoice, payroll disbursement, and cross-border wire transfer is automatically cross-referenced against established corporate governance parameters, regulatory tax schedules, and anti-fraud algorithms in real time. Anomalies or unauthorized ledger entries are flagged instantly, allowing internal audit teams to investigate and remediate compliance gaps immediately rather than months after the close of a financial period.

The implications for executive financial management are far-reaching. By embedding continuous verification directly into daily transaction workflows, chief financial officers gain uninterrupted visibility into the organization’s true financial standing. Real-time balance sheet auditing eliminates the severe operational bottlenecks associated with month-end and quarter-end financial reconciliations, freeing accounting professionals to focus on strategic financial modeling, tax planning, and capital allocation rather than manual data entry and spreadsheet consolidation.

However, implementing continuous auditing requires accounting leadership to invest heavily in data governance and technical upskilling. Internal audit teams must evolve from manual ledger reviewers into system architects capable of auditing complex algorithms and validating automated data pipelines. Accounting firms and corporate controllers that master continuous auditing will establish a resilient compliance framework capable of meeting stringent international regulatory standards with total transparency.

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