Connect with us

Finance

Wall Street bets on AI chip boom keep getting more concentrated

Published

on

The AI boom and success of Nvidia, now the U.S. market’s largest stock, have made the semiconductor sector one of the most closely watched corners of the market. Nvidia’s rise to a market cap over $4 trillion has led to concerns about the S&P 500’s concentration in a handful of tech stocks. But in another respect, a focus on chip stocks as an investment theme can be worth a look for investors with an aggressive bent.

Wall Street is finding new ways to create more concentrated bets on the chip sector.

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has been the standard for investors looking to capture the sector’s growth. Its portfolio spans the global supply chain: Nvidia designs GPUs, TSMC manufactures them, and ASML supplies the necessary equipment. It has grown to nearly $30 billion, according to VettaFi, and is up close to 30% since the beginning of the year.

The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF and SPDR S&P 500 ET Trust (SPY), meanwhile, are up around 13%.

On CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this past Monday, VanEck’s product manager Nicholas Frasse said SMH has worked because of its team of winners at the top. The structure has been key to performance especially as demand for AI has risen. Nvidia was once a gaming chip company, and now it is the face of the AI build out.

On the chipmaker’s most recent earnings call, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang described its Blackwell platform as, “the next generation AI the world’s been waiting for,” and the head of the chip company added that demand was near “extraordinary.”

Its links across the tech sector and economy are growing: on Thursday, Nvidia announced it would invest $5 billion in Intel to co-develop data centers and PC chips, among the oldest of Silicon Valley’s old guard companies, which the Trump administration recently invested a 10% equity stake in as a matter of national security.

The popular VanEck fund isn’t the only ETF benefitting from the semiconductor industry’s success. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) and the Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXQ) each offer slightly different chip exposures, and both of them have drawn in investors looking for ways to gain concentrated exposure to the chip story.

Many of the same chip names top the holdings across these ETFs, though exact weights do vary. But another fast-growing alternative is the SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD), which differentiates itself with an equal-weighting approach to stocks held in its underlying index. This means smaller names like Astera Labs and Credo Technology get representation on par with Nvidia or Broadcom.

Case in point: Nvidia’s weight in the fund is currently under 3%, compared to a weighting of over 20% in the VanEck Semiconductor ETF; 12% in the Invesco ETF; and roughly 8% in the iShares fund. Nvidia’s current weight in the S&P 500 is roughly 8%.

The SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF’s assets under management is $1.51 billion, according to VettaFi, a lot smaller than SMH or the iShares’ SOXX, at over $14 billion. But the fund is up roughly 26% since the beginning of the year, besting the iShares’ ETF performance.

SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF Top Holdings

  1. Astera Labs
  2. Credo Technology
  3. Impinj
  4. Rigetti Computing
  5. Rambus

Source: VettaFi

Because this fund provides a bet that is spread more broadly across the sector, it provides less single-stock concentration risk for investors.

“If the biggest weights are rising, pay attention to what’s happening in the rest of the space,” senior ETF & technical strategist at Strategas Securities Todd Sohn told CNBC. “It can benefit you on the upside and hurt you on the downside,” he said.

Another way to play the theme is the Invesco Semiconductors ETF (PSI) which as opposed to using a traditional stock index (Invesco’s SOXQ uses the PHLX Semiconductor Index), uses a custom index designed to pick semiconductor companies from the largest to the smallest caps based on changes in price momentum, earnings momentum, value and additional factors. That makes it different than some of the market-cap weighted or equal-weight chip funds, and it usually contains at least a few mid-cap chip designers and manufacturers that may not be included in larger ETFs, though overlap among chip names is to be expected in any of these portfolios.

Invesco Semiconductors ETF Top Holdings

  1. Micron Technology
  2. Lam Research
  3. Broadcom
  4. KLA Corporation
  5. Qualcomm

Source: Vettafi

Invesco Semiconductors ETF is good for investors who are looking for exposure that isn’t dominated by mega-cap companies.

“If you are very bullish on growth in technology, then you’re going to want to add more semiconductor ETFs in your portfolio,” Sohn said.

A focus on fabless semiconductor companies is among the newest ETF products to hit the market. A fabless chipmaker designs and sells chips, but outsources manufacturing. VanEck launched the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX) on Aug. 27.

Sohn said this approach is for an investor who “wants more focused exposure on the type of company involved, as opposed to just the entire spectrum of the semiconductor space.”

In some respects, it isn’t all that different from what is already on offer within semi ETFs: Nvidia, for example, is its No. 1 holding, at over 18%. But there are pure-play fabless companies high among its holdings, such as Cadence Design Systems. And it includes some interesting takes on the theme, with power efficiency as part of the AI and chip story leading the fund to have Monolithic Power, a company working on chips that reduce energy use in data centers, among its top 10 holdings.

“We believe this is a super cycle,” Frasse said. “We’re in the very early innings.”

Sign up for our weekly newsletter that goes beyond the livestream, offering a closer look at the trends and figures shaping the ETF market.

Disclaimer

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Finance

Why software stocks, 2026’s market dogs, have joined the rally

Published

on

ETF shelters from the Middle East War

Cybersecurity and enterprise software stocks have been market dogs in 2026, with fears that AI will wipe out a wide range of companies in the enterprise space dominating the narrative. But they snapped a brutal losing streak this past week, joining in the broader market rally that saw all losses from the U.S.-Iran war regained by the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500.

Cybersecurity has been “a victim of some of the AI-related headlines,” Christian Magoon, Amplify ETFs CEO, said on this week’s “ETF Edge.”

It wasn’t just niche cybersecurity names. Take Microsoft, for example, which was recently down close to 20% for the year. Its shares surged last week by 13%.

A big driver of the pummeling in software stocks was a rotation within tech by investors to AI infrastructure and semiconductors and some other names in large-cap tech, Magoon said, and since cybersecurity stocks and ETFs are heavily weighted towards software companies, they were left behind even as those businesses continue to grow on a fundamental basis.

But Wall Street now has become more bullish with the stocks at lower levels. Brent Thill, Jefferies tech analyst, said last week that the worst may be over for software stocks. “I think that this concept that software is dead, and then Anthropic and OpenAI are going to kill the entire industry, is just over-exaggerated,” he said on CNBC’s “Money Movers” on Wednesday.

Big Short” investor Michael Burry wrote in a Substack post on Wednesday that he is becoming bullish about software stocks after the recent selloff. “Software stocks remain interesting because of accelerated extreme declines last week arising from a reflexive positive feedback loop between falling software stocks and changes in the market for their bank debt,” he wrote.

The Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG), is down about 12% since the beginning of the year, with top holdings including Palo Alto Networks, Fortinet, Akamai Technologies and CrowdStrike. But BUG was up 12% last week. The First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) is down 6% for the year, but up 9% in the past week.

Piper Sandler analyst Rob Owens reiterated an “overweight” rating on Palo Alto Networks which helped the stock pop 7% — it is now down roughly 6% on the year. Its peers saw similar moves, including CrowdStrike.

Stock Chart IconStock chart icon

hide content

Performance of Global X cybersecurity ETF versus S&P 500 over past one-year period.

Magoon said expectations may have become too high in cybersecurity, and with a crowding effect among investors, solid results were not enough to to push stocks higher. But the down-and-then-back-up 2026 for the sector is also a reminder that when stocks fall sharply in a short period of time, opportunity may knock.

“Once you’re down over 10% in some of these subsectors, you start to see the contrarians start to say, ‘well, maybe I’ll take a look at this,'” Magoon said.

He said AI does add both opportunity and uncertainty to the cybersecurity equation, increasing demand but also introducing new competition. But he added, “I think the dip is good to buy in an AI-driven world,” specifically because the risks to companies may lead to more M&A in cyber names that benefits the stocks.

For now, investors may look for opportunity on the margins rather than rush back into beaten-up tech names. “I think investors are still going to remain underweight software,” Thill said.

But Magoon advises investors to at least take the reminder to keep an eye on niches in the market during pronounced downturns. “The best-performing are often the least bought and do the best over the next 12 months versus late-in-the-game piling on,” he said.

While that may have been a mindset that worked against the last investors into cybersecurity and enterprise software in mid-2025 when the negative sentiment started building, at least for now, it’s started working for the stocks in the sector again.

Meanwhile, this year’s biggest winner is also a good example of what can be an extended trade in either a bullish or bearish direction. Last year, institutional ownership of energy was at multi-year lows, Magoon said, referencing Bank of America data. “Reverse sentiment can be a great indicator,” he said. 

But he cautioned that any selective buying of stocks that have dipped does have to contend with the risk that there is a potentially bigger drawdown in the market yet to come in 2026. That is because midterm election years historically have been marked by large drawdowns. “If you think it is bad right now, it could get a lot worse,” Magoon said. But he added that there’s a silver-lining in that data, too, for the patient investor. The market has posted very strong 12-month returns after midterm election drawdowns end. So, for investors with a longer-term time horizon and no need for short-term liquidity, Magoon said, “stick in there.” 

Sign up for our weekly newsletter that goes beyond the livestream, offering a closer look at the trends and figures shaping the ETF market.

Disclaimer

Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.

Continue Reading

Finance

Violent downturns could test new ETF strategies, warns MFS Investment

Published

on

ETF Stress Tests: How funds are showing resilience in the face of uncertainty

New innovation in the exchange-traded fund industry could come at a cost to investors during extreme conditions.

According to MFS Investment Management’s Jamie Harrison, ETFs involved in increasingly complex derivatives and less transparent markets may be in uncharted territory when it comes to violent downturns.

“Those would be something that you’d want to keep an eye on as volatility ramps up,” the firm’s head of ETF capital markets told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “As innovation continues to increase at a rapid pace within the ETF wrapper, [it’s] definitely something that we advise our clients to be really front-footed about… Lack of transparency could absolutely be an issue if we’re going to start seeing some deep sell-offs.”

His firm has been around since 1924 and is known for inventing the open-end mutual fund. Last year, ETF.com named MFS Investment Management as the best new ETF issuer.

“It’s important to do due diligence on the portfolio,” he said. “Having a firm that has deep partnerships, deep bench of subject matter experts that plays with the A-team in terms of the Street and liquidity providers available [are] super important.”

Liquidity as the real issue?

Harrison suggested the real issue is liquidity, particularly during a steep sell-off.

“We’ve all seen the news and the headlines around potential private credit ETFs. That picture becomes much more murky,” he added. “It’s up to advisors, to investors [and] to clients to really dig in and look under the hood and engage with their issuers.”

He noted investors will have to ask some tough questions.

“What does this look like in a 20% drawdown? How does this liquidity facility work? Am I going to be able to get in? Am I going to be able to get out? And if I’m able to get out, am I able to get out at a price that’s tight to NAV [net asset value], and what’s the infrastructure at your shop in terms of managing that consideration for me,” said Harrison.

Amplify ETFs’ Christian Magoon is also concerned about these newer ETF strategies could weather a monster drawdown. He listed private credit as a red flag.

“If your ETF owns private credit, I think it’s worth taking a look at, kind of what the standards are around liquidity and how that ETF is trading, because that should be a bit of a mismatch between the trading pace of ETFs and the underlying asset,” the firm’s CEO said in the same interview.

Magoon also highlighted potential issues surrounding equity-linked notes. The notes provide fixed income security while offering potentially higher returns linked to stocks or equity indexes.

“Those could potentially be in stress due to redemptions and the underlying credit risk. That’s another kind of unique derivative,” Magoon said. “I would very closely look at any ETF that has equity-linked notes should we get into a major drawdown or there be a contagion in private credit or something related to the banking system.”

Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.

Continue Reading

Finance

Anthropic Mythos reveals ‘more vulnerabilities’ for cyberattacks

Published

on

Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., right, departs the US Capitol in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2026.

Graeme Sloan | Bloomberg | Getty Images

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Tuesday that while artificial intelligence tools could eventually help companies defend themselves from cyberattacks, they are first making them more vulnerable.

Dimon said that JPMorgan was testing Anthropic’s latest model — the Mythos preview announced by the AI firm last week — as part of its broader effort to reap the benefits of AI while protecting against bad actors wielding the same technology.

“AI’s made it worse, it’s made it harder,” Dimon told analysts on the bank’s earnings call Tuesday morning. “It does create additional vulnerabilities, and maybe down the road, better ways to strengthen yourself too.”

When asked by a reporter about Mythos, Dimon seemed to refer to Anthropic’s warning that the model had already found thousands of vulnerabilities in corporate software.

“I think you read exactly what is it,” Dimon said. “It shows a lot more vulnerabilities need to be fixed.”

The remarks reveal how artificial intelligence, a technology welcomed by corporations as a productivity boon, has also morphed into a serious threat by giving bad actors new ways to hack into technology systems. Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent summoned bank CEOs to a meeting to discuss the risks posed by Mythos.

JPMorgan, the world’s largest bank by market cap, has for years invested heavily to stay ahead of threats, with dedicated teams and constant coordination with government agencies, Dimon said.

“We spend a lot of money. We’ve got top experts. We’re in constant contact with the government,” he said. “It’s a full-time job, and we’re doing it all the time.”

‘Attack mode’

Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.

Continue Reading

Trending