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How is Social Security funded? Political debate resurfaces question on program

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New leadership has yet to be sworn in, in Washington, D.C. Yet Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, ignited a debate this week on the future of Social Security with a series of posts on social media platform X.

The program, which provides monthly checks to more than 65 million beneficiaries, faces funding issues that may prevent the program from paying full benefits in as soon as nine years.

“We were sold a dream, but received a nightmare,” Lee stated in the X thread on Monday. “It’s time for a wake-up call. We need real reform.”

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Experts on both sides of the aisle generally agree it’s better to address Social Security’s funding woes sooner rather than later.

“It’s a system that requires a fix,” said Charles Blahous, senior research strategist at George Mason University’s Mercatus Center and former public trustee for Social Security. “Acting like everything is fine and that we can just ignore it for a few years would not serve the public well.”

Meanwhile, Lee’s post on Social Security — in which he said it is “almost fair to compare it to a Ponzi scheme that’s running out of new investors” — prompted mixed responses.

Elon Musk, who has been tasked with cutting government spending under President-elect Donald Trump, shared Lee’s post while calling it “interesting.” Yet Social Security advocacy groups were quick to defend the program they said has never missed a benefit payment in nearly 90 years.

Among the issues Lee identified is the mechanism for holding money used to pay benefits, commonly known as the “trust funds.”

“This money doesn’t sit in a nice, individual account with your name on it,” Lee stated in his X thread. “No, it goes into a huge account called the ‘Social Security Trust Fund.'”

What are Social Security’s trust funds?

Social Security mostly relies on payroll taxes paid by both workers and their employers for funding, according to a recent Congressional Research Service report.

But the program also receives money from other sources, including federal income taxes some Social Security beneficiaries pay on their benefits, reimbursements from the Treasury’s general fund and interest income from investments held in its trust funds.

That latter source — the trust funds — hold money that is not needed in the current year to pay benefits and administrative costs, according to the Social Security Administration. The money in the trust funds is invested in special Treasury bonds that are guaranteed by the U.S. government.

The interest on those securities is tied to market rates. The trust fund’s bonds are redeemed when they either are needed to pay benefits or they expire.

“The trust funds basically keep track of what workers have paid into the system,” Blahous said.

Social Security’s trust funds prompt headlines each year when Social Security’s trustees release their annual report on the program’s financial outlook.

President George W. Bush is shown paper evidence of US Treasury Bonds in the Social Security trust funds by Susan Chapman, director of the Division of Federal Investments, during a tour of the Bureau of Public Debt in Parkersburg, West Virginia on April 5, 2005. 

Luke Frazza | Afp | Getty Images

The program’s two trust funds are legally distinct and generally do not have the authority to borrow from each other.

The trust fund used to pay benefits to retired workers — as well as their spouses, children and survivors, should they die — faces the soonest estimated depletion date of 2033, when just 79% of those benefits will be payable if Congress does not act before that.

Lee is not the first politician to question Social Security’s trust fund structure. In 2005, then President George W. Bush said the trust funds are the equivalent of government IOUs in a four-drawer filing cabinet. More recently, during a 2023 Budget Committee Senate hearing, Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wisconsin, held up a photo of a filing cabinet when discussing the program’s funding.

“This is the Social Security trust fund,” Johnson said. “It’s a four-drawer file in Parkersburg, West Virginia.”

In response, Stephen Goss, chief actuary at the Social Security Administration, said at the time that the funds are “all electronic.”

By pointing to filing cabinets, the politicians imply the trust funds aren’t real, said Andrew Biggs, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former principal deputy commissioner of the Social Security Administration. Yet if someone has a retirement account with Vanguard or a defined benefit pension, it would also be represented with a paper document, he said.

“These trust fund bonds are real,” Biggs said.

Experts say the trust funds are misunderstood

During a July 2023 Senate hearing on protecting Social Security, Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wisconsin, describes the program’s trust funds as a “four-drawer file.”

Source: U.S. Senate Floor

If Social Security has a surplus, they’re required to invest it with the federal government, according to Biggs. That means the federal government is required to borrow it, he said.

However, that borrowing mostly stopped 15 years ago, since Social Security no longer has surpluses, Biggs said.

In his X post, Lee also focused on the extra interest Social Security’s investments could earn if the money were invested more aggressively in stocks. Sen Bill Cassidy, R-Louisiana, has also called for investing in stocks on the program’s behalf.

But rather than talking about Social Security as an investment, we should be focusing on it as a social insurance program that’s funded by a payroll tax, said the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Fichtner.

The program provides both retirement and disability benefits and is designed to be progressive, so Americans with lower lifetime earnings get a higher income replacement rate. Focusing on the income replacement the program provides can help identify which reform proposals are helpful and necessary, Fichtner said.

“In general, we should be having an open, honest discussion about Social Security and the important role plays in the foundation of retirement security for Americans,” Fichtner said.

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Trump administration loses appeal of DOGE Social Security restraining order

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A person holds a sign during a protest against cuts made by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration to the Social Security Administration, in White Plains, New York, U.S., March 22, 2025. 

Nathan Layne | Reuters

The Trump administration’s appeal of a temporary restraining order blocking the so-called Department of Government Efficiency from accessing sensitive personal Social Security Administration data has been dismissed.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 4th Circuit on Tuesday dismissed the government’s appeal for lack of jurisdiction. The case will proceed in the district court. A motion for a preliminary injunction will be filed later this week, according to national legal organization Democracy Forward.

The temporary restraining order was issued on March 20 by federal Judge Ellen Lipton Hollander and blocks DOGE and related agents and employees from accessing agency systems that contain personally identifiable information.

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That includes information such as Social Security numbers, medical provider information and treatment records, employer and employee payment records, employee earnings, addresses, bank records, and tax information.

DOGE team members were also ordered to delete all nonanonymized personally identifiable information in their possession.

The plaintiffs include unions and retiree advocacy groups, namely the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, the Alliance for Retired Americans and the American Federation of Teachers. 

“We are pleased the 4th Circuit agreed to let this important case continue in district court,” Richard Fiesta, executive director of the Alliance for Retired Americans, said in a written statement. “Every American retiree must be able to trust that the Social Security Administration will protect their most sensitive and personal data from unwarranted disclosure.”

The Trump administration’s appeal ignored standard legal procedure, according to Democracy Forward. The administration’s efforts to halt the enforcement of the temporary restraining order have also been denied.

“The president will continue to seek all legal remedies available to ensure the will of the American people is executed,” Liz Huston, a White House spokesperson, said via email.

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The Social Security Administration did not respond to a request from CNBC for comment.

Immediately after the March 20 temporary restraining order was put in place, Social Security Administration Acting Commissioner Lee Dudek said in press interviews that he may have to shut down the agency since it “applies to almost all SSA employees.”

Dudek was admonished by Hollander, who called that assertion “inaccurate” and said the court order “expressly applies only to SSA employees working on the DOGE agenda.”

Dudek then said that the “clarifying guidance” issued by the court meant he would not shut down the agency. “SSA employees and their work will continue under the [temporary restraining order],” Dudek said in a March 21 statement.

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Most credit card users carry debt, pay over 20% interest: Fed report

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Many Americans are paying a hefty price for their credit card debt.

As a primary source of unsecured borrowing, 60% of credit cardholders carry debt from month to month, according to a new report by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

At the same time, credit card interest rates are “very high,” averaging 23% annually in 2023, the New York Fed found, also making credit cards one of the most expensive ways to borrow money.

“With the vast majority of the American public using credit cards for their purchases, the interest rate that is attached to these products is significant,” said Erica Sandberg, consumer finance expert at CardRates.com. “The more a debt costs, the more stress this puts on an already tight budget.”

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Most credit cards have a variable rate, which means there’s a direct connection to the Federal Reserve’s benchmark. And yet, credit card lenders set annual percentage rates well above the central bank’s key borrowing rate, currently targeted in a range between 4.25% to 4.5%, where it has been since December.

Following the Federal Reserve’s rate hike in 2022 and 2023, the average credit card rate rose from 16.34% to more than 20% today — a significant increase fueled by the Fed’s actions to combat inflation.

“Card issuers have determined what the market will bear and are comfortable within this range of interest rates,” said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree.

APRs will come down as the central bank reduces rates, but they will still only ease off extremely high levels. With just a few potential quarter-point cuts on deck, APRs aren’t likely to fall much, according to Schulz.

Credit card debt?

Despite the steep cost, consumers often turn to credit cards, in part because they are more accessible than other types of loans, Schulz said. 

In fact, credit cards are the No. 1 source of unsecured borrowing and Americans’ credit card tab continues to creep higher. In the last year, credit card debt rose to a record $1.21 trillion.

Because credit card lending is unsecured, it is also banks’ riskiest type of lending.

“Lenders adjust interest rates for two primary reasons: cost and risk,” CardRates’ Sandberg said.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s research shows that credit card charge-offs averaged 3.96% of total balances between 2010 and 2023. That compares to only 0.46% and 0.43% for business loans and residential mortgages, respectively.

As a result, roughly 53% of banks’ annual default losses were due to credit card lending, according to the NY Fed research.

“When you offer a product to everyone you are assuming an awful lot of risk,” Schulz said.

Further, “when times get tough they get tough for most everybody,” he added. “That makes it much more challenging for card issuers.”

The best way to pay off debt

The best move for those struggling to pay down revolving credit card debt is to consolidate with a 0% balance transfer card, experts suggest.

“There is enormous competition in the credit card market,” Sandberg said. Because lenders are constantly trying to capture new cardholders, those 0% balance transfer credit card offers are still widely available.

Cards offering 12, 15 or even 24 months with no interest on transferred balances “are basically the best tool in your toolbelt when it comes to knocking down credit card debt,” Schulz said. “Not accruing interest for two years on a balance is pretty hard to argue with.”

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The 60/40 portfolio may no longer represent ‘true diversification’: Fink

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Andrew Ross Sorkin speaks with BlackRock CEO Larry Fink during the New York Times DealBook Summit in the Appel Room at the Jazz at Lincoln Center in New York City on Nov. 30, 2022.

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

It may be time to rethink the traditional 60/40 investment portfolio, according to BlackRock CEO Larry Fink.

In a new letter to investors, Fink writes the traditional allocation comprised of 60% stocks and 40% bonds that dates back to the 1950s “may no longer fully represent true diversification.”

“The future standard portfolio may look more like 50/30/20 — stocks, bonds and private assets like real estate, infrastructure and private credit.” Fink writes.

Most professional investors love to talk their book, and Fink is no exception. BlackRock has pursued several recent acquisitions — Global Infrastructure Partners, Preqin and HPS Investment Partners — with the goal of helping to increase investors’ access to private markets.

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The effort to make it easier to incorporate both public and private investments in a portfolio is analogous to index versus active investments in 2009, Fink said.

Those investment strategies that were then considered separately can now be blended easily at a low cost.

Fink hopes the same will eventually be said for public and private markets.

Yet shopping for private investments now can feel “a bit like buying a house in an unfamiliar neighborhood before Zillow existed, where finding accurate prices was difficult or impossible,” Fink writes.

60/40 portfolio still a ‘great starting point’

After both stocks and bonds saw declines in 2022, some analysts declared the 60/40 portfolio strategy dead. In 2024, however, such a balanced portfolio would have provided a return of about 14%.

“If you want to keep things very simple, the 60/40 portfolio or a target date fund is a great starting point,” said Amy Arnott, portfolio strategist at Morningstar.

If you’re willing to add more complexity, you could consider smaller positions in other asset classes like commodities, private equity or private debt, she said.

However, a 20% allocation in private assets is on the aggressive side, Arnott said.

The total value of private assets globally is about $14.3 trillion, while the public markets are worth about $247 trillion, she said.

For investors who want to keep their asset allocations in line with the market value of various asset classes, that would imply a weighting of about 6% instead of 20%, Arnott said.

Yet a 50/30/20 portfolio is a lot closer to how institutional investors have been allocating their portfolios for years, said Michael Rosen, chief investment officer at Angeles Investments.

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The 60/40 portfolio, which Rosen previously said reached its “expiration date,” hasn’t been used by his firm’s endowment and foundation clients for decades.

There’s a key reason why. Institutional investors need to guarantee a specific return, also while paying for expenses and beating inflation, Rosen said.

While a 50/30/20 allocation may help deliver “truly outsized returns” to the mass retail market, there’s also a “lot of baggage” that comes with that strategy, Rosen said.

There’s a lack of liquidity, which means those holdings aren’t as easily converted to cash, Rosen said.

What’s more, there’s generally a lack of transparency and significantly higher fees, he said.

Prospective investors should be prepared to commit for 10 years to private investments, Arnott said.

And they also need to be aware that measurement issues with asset classes like private equity means past performance data may not be as reliable, she said.

For the average person, the most likely path toward tapping into private equity will be part of a 401(k) plan, Arnott said. So far, not a lot of companies have added private equity to their 401(k) offerings, but that could change, she said.

“We will probably see more plan sponsors adding private equity options to their lineups going forward,” Arnott said.

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