Personal Finance

The U.S. job market is stagnant right now

Published

1 week ago

December 9, 2024

Business Finance News

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The U.S. job market has been stagnant of late, a dynamic that contains both good and bad news for U.S. workers.

On the one hand, businesses are holding on to their existing workforce, meaning employees are unlikely to lose their jobs, economists said. But it also may be hard for jobseekers to land a new gig as employers pull back on hiring, economists said.

It’s a “low-hire, low-fire environment,” Bank of America economists wrote in a research note Friday.

“The labor market is currently characterized by a lack of churn: soft hiring and low layoffs,” they said.

That news may be disappointing for many workers: About half, or 51%, of U.S. employees were seeking a new job as of Nov. 1, the highest share since 2015, according to a Gallup poll published Tuesday. Overall job satisfaction has dipped to a record low, it found.

The ‘great resignation’ became the ‘great stay’

By many metrics, the job market is strong for American workers.

The unemployment rate — which was 4.2% in November — is near historical lows dating to the late 1940s. The layoff rate in October was also at its lowest since the early 2000s, when record keeping began, and has hardly budged since 2021.

However, employer hiring in October was sluggish: The hiring rate was at its lowest since 2013. The average duration of unemployment ticked up to 23.7 weeks in November, from 19.5 weeks a year earlier.

The current lack of dynamism in the job market represents whiplash for many workers, said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter.

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Workers quit their jobs at a torrid pace in 2021 and 2022, as the U.S. economy awoke from its pandemic-era hibernation. Job openings ballooned to record highs and businesses competed for labor by raising wages at the fastest clip in decades, incentivizing workers to leave their gigs for better opportunities.

This era, dubbed the “great resignation,” has been replaced by the “great stay,” Pollak said.

This is due to a variety of factors, labor economists said.

Many businesses were scarred by their recent experience of holding onto workers amid fierce labor competition and have reacted by “labor hoarding,” said Cory Stahle, an economist at the job site Indeed.

Employers have shifted their policies more toward retention and away from recruiting, Pollak said.

The labor market has also gradually cooled.

The U.S. Federal Reserve raised borrowing costs aggressively starting in 2022 to slow the economy and tame inflation, which applied the brakes on the job market. The central bank started cutting interest rates in September, as inflation declined significantly and the labor market flashed some warning signals.

A ‘diverging’ labor market

While strong in the aggregate, the job market is “diverging” for workers, Stahle said.

Overall job growth has been “robust” but the bulk of job gains are occurring in a handful of industries like health care, government, and leisure and hospitality, Stahle said.

Meanwhile, job growth in white-collar fields like software development, marketing, and media and communications “has been very, very slow,” he said. “Right now your experience with the labor market will depend on the type of job you’re doing,” he said.

Hiring may bounce back if the Fed continues to cut interest rates, as employers may be more inclined to invest more in their businesses if borrowing costs are lower, economists said.

In the meantime, “things are going to be a little more competitive than they were a couple years ago,” Stahle said.

Job seekers should be sure to align their resumes with the skills that employers list on job posts, especially since many businesses use “applicant tracking systems” to automatically screen applications, he said.

“People who really want out [of their job] may need to widen their search, expand their parameters, and get a bit uncomfortable and reskill,” Pollak said.

But those with jobs they really like “have unprecedented job security,” she said.

Personal Finance

How to leverage the higher 401(k) plan contribution limit for 2025

Published

17 hours ago

December 17, 2024

Business Finance News

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If you’re eager to save more for retirement, it’s not too early to boost 401(k) plan contributions for 2025, financial experts say.

For 2025, you can defer up to $23,500 into 401(k) plans, up from $23,000 in 2024. For workers age 50 and older, the 401(k) catch-up contribution remains at $7,500 for 2025.

But there’s a “super funding” opportunity for 401(k) catch-up contributions for a subset of savers, according to Tommy Lucas, a certified financial planner and enrolled agent at Moisand Fitzgerald Tamayo in Orlando, Florida.

Enacted via Secure 2.0, the 2025 catch-up contribution limit will increase to $11,250 for employees ages 60 to 63, which brings the 401(k) deferral total to $34,750 for these investors.

“Probably no one knows about the extra increase,” and it could take time before the general public is aware of the new opportunity, said Boston-area CFP and enrolled agent Catherine Valega, founder of Green Bee Advisory.

However, boosting contributions later could still be beneficial for savers in this age range, experts say.

Increase 401(k) deferrals for 2025 now

If you plan to adjust 401(k) deferrals for 2025, “now is the time to be doing it,” Valega said.

Typically, it takes a couple of pay periods for 401(k) contribution changes to go into effect, and you could miss some higher contributions in January by waiting, she said.

If you miss bigger deposits early, you can still max out your plan by boosting deferrals later in the year. But higher percentages can “impact cash flow more than people are typically willing to do,” Valega said.

Lucas said he updated next year’s 401(k) contributions for his clients in early December.

“It’s already set for next year,” he said. “We’re on pace, starting with the first payroll.”

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Of course, many workers can’t afford to max out their 401(k) plan every year.

Roughly 14% of employees maxed out 401(k) plans in 2023, according to Vanguard’s 2024 How America Saves report, based on data from 1,500 qualified plans and nearly 5 million participants.

Personal Finance

Student loan forgiveness chances lost to those who refinance: CFPB

Published

18 hours ago

December 17, 2024

Business Finance News

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With the Federal Reserve’s recent moves to lower interest rates — and further cuts on the horizon — some federal student loan borrowers are wondering if now is a good time to refinance.

“We are already seeing more borrowers tempted to refinance their federal loans,” said Betsy Mayotte, president of The Institute of Student Loan Advisors.

Refinancing your federal student loans turns them into a private student loan and transfers the debt from the government to a private company. Borrowers usually refinance in search of a lower interest rate.

But the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has new warnings about refinancing student debt.

In a report published Monday, the CFPB said that private lenders use “deceptive” practices in their marketing and disclosure materials, misleading student borrowers about a key pitfall of refinancing: Those who do so lose access to federal student loan forgiveness options.

“Companies break the law when they mislead student borrowers about their protections or deny borrowers their rightful benefits,” said CFPB Director Rohit Chopra. “Student loan companies should not profit by violating the law.”

Federal forgiveness chances dashed with refinancing

Some private lenders give the wrong impression “that refinancing federal loans might not result in forfeiting access to federal forgiveness programs, when, in fact, it was a certainty,” the CFPB report says.

The federal government offers a range of student debt forgiveness programs, including Public Service Loan Forgiveness and Teacher Loan Forgiveness.

PSLF allows certain not-for-profit and government employees to have their federal student loans cleared after 10 years of on-time payments. Under TLF, those who teach full-time for five consecutive academic years in a low-income school or educational service agency can be eligible for loan forgiveness of up to $17,500. These options are not available to private student loan borrowers.

Borrowers refinancing would also not be eligible for one-off forgiveness efforts like President Joe Biden’s Plan B.

Private student loan borrowers who are struggling to pay their bills don’t have a right to an income-driven repayment plan, either.

IDR plans allow federal student borrowers to pay just a share of their discretionary income toward their debt each month. The plans also lead to debt forgiveness after a certain period.

Borrowers who refinance their student loans lose access to these federal relief options, the CFPB said.

And this has cost borrowers.

“The lenders profited from borrowers paying the full amount of their loans, when the borrowers otherwise potentially could have had some or all of those loans forgiven,” the bureau wrote in its report.

Lenders do inform borrowers of what benefits they may give up by making moves like refinancing, said Scott Buchanan, executive director of the Student Loan Servicing Alliance, a trade group for student loan servicers.

Buchanan said the government’s changing promises around student loan forgiveness has led to a lack of clarity. (Republican-led legal challenges have stymied the Biden administration’s efforts to deliver wide-scale student loan forgiveness to borrowers.)

“That volatility and confusion is something the Bureau needs to take up with the Department of Education,” Buchanan said.

But the federal government’s long-standing student loan forgiveness programs and other relief measures are reasons alone to think twice before refinancing, Mayotte said.

“We almost always very strongly recommend against it,” she said.

Personal Finance

Advisors remain reluctant to recommend crypto, even as prices soar

Published

19 hours ago

December 17, 2024

Business Finance News

Digital assets have rallied since the November U.S. election — with bitcoin notching a new high above $107,000 on Monday — and continue to gain ground as President-elect Donald Trump details his pro-cryptocurrency policy plans.

Still, many financial advisors remain wary.

“As traditional long-term planners, we currently do not incorporate crypto in our portfolio allocations,” said certified financial planner Marianela Collado, CEO of Tobias Financial Advisors in Plantation, Florida. She is also a certified public accountant. “We always advise our clients to put in crypto what you’re not necessarily needing for retirement, what you’re comfortable losing.”

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To be sure, regulatory uncertainty remains a clear area of concern for financial advisors when it comes to recommending crypto investments to clients.

In April, when crypto prices were lower, an annual survey of 2,000 financial advisors by Cerulli Associates found that 59% don’t currently use cryptocurrencies or plan to in the future. Another 26% said they don’t use it now but expect to in the future.

Meanwhile, about 12% of advisors said they use cryptocurrencies based on clients’ requests, according to the Cerulli report, and less than 3% of advisors said they use crypto based on their own recommendations.

ETFs an ‘easy solution’ to add crypto

If investors are interested in crypto, CFP Ashton Lawrence at Mariner Wealth Advisors in Greenville, South Carolina, advises many clients to use exchange-traded funds.

“It’s truly depending upon what the client is looking to achieve and how easy they feel in navigating this market,” he said. “If they’re looking for an easy solution. ETFs might be the best way to go.”

Spot bitcoin ETFs, first available in January, now have more than $100 billion in assets under management, which is about 1% of the overall ETF market.

“Bitcoin ETFs have become the vehicle of choice for bitcoin holders,” Brian Hartigan, global head of ETFs at Invesco, said during CNBC’s “Halftime Report” on Dec. 9.

Lawrence recommends clients interested in crypto limit the allocation to no more than 1% to 5% of their overall portfolio.

Most financial advisors agree that whether to have crypto investments in your portfolio depends on your risk tolerance, financial goals and time horizon.