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Services index shows big jump in prices for December as companies fear tariffs

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A person shops at a Whole Foods Market grocery store on December 17, 2024 in New York City. 

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Activity in the U.S. services industry accelerated in December but brought with it a sharp rise in expectations for price increases as businesses grew concerned about the impact tariffs would have on inflation.

The Institute for Supply Management’s services index Tuesday posted a reading of 54.1%, representing the share of businesses expecting growth. That was up 2 percentage points from November and better than the Dow Jones survey of economists showing a consensus forecast of 53.4%.

Along with the better overall reading, the prices index jumped to 64.4%, an increase of 6.2 points or more than 10%. It was the first time the index had eclipsed 60% since January 2024, said Steve Miller, chair of ISM’s Business Survey Committee. The prices index hit its highest level since February 2023.

“There was general optimism expressed across many industries, but tariff concerns elicited the most panelist comments,” Miller said.

President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to enact sweeping tariffs after he takes office later this month. Trump on Monday denied a Washington Post report that he was considering a narrower, more targeted approach.

The ISM manufacturing survey for the month also reflected higher prices, with the index rising to 52.5%, up 2.2 points on the month.

Treasury yields, particularly at the longer-dated end of the curve, moved higher following the release. The benchmark 10-year note most recently yielded 4.68%, up .065 percentage point, or 6.5 basis points, on the session.

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In the services survey, multiple respondents cited tariffs as a concern while noting a generally positive business climate wrapping up 2024.

“Seems to be a lot of uncertainty about tariffs and purchasing decisions. A lot of wait and see,” said one respondent in the transportation and warehousing industry.

“Generally optimistic that the incoming administration will positively affect regulatory, tax and energy policies that will spur economic improvement. We are concerned about tariff activity and are hoping for the best,” an information services industry manager reported.

The business activity index also moved higher, rising to 58.2%, an increase of 4.5 points.

Employment was little changed at 51.4%; in the ISM manufacturing survey, the index fell to 45.3%, a decline of 2.8 points. Any reading in the ISM surveys below 50% represents contraction.

Readings on inflation and employment conditions are critical for the Federal Reserve as it contemplates future moves in monetary policy. The central bank lowered its benchmark borrowing rate by a full percentage point from September through December in 2024 but is expected to move at a more cautious pace now as it evaluates incoming economic data.

A separate report Tuesday indicated that job openings nudged higher in November while fewer workers left their jobs.

The Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed available positions rising to 8.1 million, an increase of 259,000 for the month and higher than the 7.7 million estimate from Dow Jones. At the same time, quits fell to 3.06 million, a decline of 218,000.

The level of job openings to available workers held around 1.1 to 1.

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Germany’s economy chief Reiche sets out roadmap to end turmoil

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09 May 2025, Bavaria, Gmund Am Tegernsee: Katherina Reiche (CDU), Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy, takes part in the Ludwig Erhard Summit. Representatives from business, politics, science and the media are taking part in the three-day summit. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa (Photo by Sven Hoppe/picture alliance via Getty Images)

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Germany needs to take more risks and boost its stagnant economy with a decade of investment in infrastructure, German Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy Katherina Reiche said Friday.

“The next decade will be the decade of infrastructure investments in bridges, in energy infrastructure, in storage, in maritime infrastructure… telecommunication. And for this, we need speed. We need speed and investments, and we need private capital,” Reiche told CNBC’s Annette Weisbach on the sidelines of the Tegernsee summit.

While 10% of investments could be taken care of with public money, the remaining 90% relied on the private sector, she said.

The newly minted economy minister also addressed regulation coming from Brussels, warning that it could hinder companies from investments and start-ups from growing if it is too restrictive. Germany has had to learn that investments comes with risks “and we have to kind of be open for taking more risks,” she said.

Watch CNBC's full interview with German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche

“This country needs an economic turnaround. After two years of recessions the previous government had to announce again [a] zero growth year for 2025 and we really have to work on this. So on the top of the agenda is an investor booster,” the minister added.

Lowering energy prices, stabilizing the security of energy supply and reducing bureaucracy were among the key points on the agenda, Reiche said.

Germany’s economy contracted slightly on an annual basis in both 2023 and 2024 and the quarterly gross domestic product has been flipping between growth and contraction for over two years now, just about managing to avoid a technical recession. Preliminary data for the first quarter of 2025 showed a 0.2% expansion.

Forecasts do not suggest much of a reprieve from the sluggishness, with the now former German government last month saying it still expects the economy to stagnate this year.

This is despite a major fiscal U-turn announced earlier this year, which included changes to the country’s long-standing debt rules to allow for additional defense spending and a 500-billion-euro ($562.4 billion) infrastructure package.

Several of Germany’s key industries are under pressure. The auto industry for example is dealing with stark competition from China and now faces tariffs, while issues in housebuilding and infrastructure have been linked to higher costs and bureaucratic hurdles.

Trade is also a key pillar for the German economy and therefore uncertainty from U.S. President Donald Trump’s changing tariff policies are weighing heavily on the outlook.

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Andrew Bailey on why UK-U.S. trade deal won’t end uncertainty

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Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey attends the central bank’s Monetary Policy Report press conference at the Bank of England, in the City of London, on May 8, 2025.

Carlos Jasso | Afp | Getty Images

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told CNBC on Thursday that the U.K. was heading for more economic uncertainty, despite the country being the first to strike a trade agreement with the U.S. under President Donald Trump’s controversial tariff regime.

“The tariff and trade situation has injected more uncertainty into the situation… There’s more uncertainty now than there was in the past,” Bailey told CNBC in an interview.

“A U.K.-U.S. trade agreement is very welcome in that sense, very welcome. But the U.K. is a very open economy,” he continued.

That means that the impact from tariffs on the U.K. economy comes not just from its own trade relationship with Washington, but also from those of the U.S. and the rest of the world, he said.

“I hope that what we’re seeing on the U.K.-U.S. trade side will be the first of many, and it will be repeated by a whole series of trade agreements, but we have to see that happen of course, and where it actually ends up.”

“Because, of course, we are looking at tariff levels that are probably higher than they were beforehand.”

Trump unveils United Kingdom trade deal, first since ‘reciprocal’ tariff pause

In Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Report released Thursday, the word “uncertainty” was used 41 times across its 97 pages, up from 36 times in February, according to a CNBC tally.

The U.K. central bank cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point on Thursday, taking its key rate to 4.25%. The decision was highly divided among the seven members of its Monetary Policy Committee, with five voting for the 25 basis point cut, two voting to hold rates and two voting to reduce by a larger 50 basis points.

Bailey said that while some analysts had perceived the rate decision as more hawkish than expected — in other words, leaning toward holding rates elevated than slashing them rapidly — he was not surprised by the close vote.

“What it reflects is that there are two sides, there are risks on both sides here,” he told CNBC.

“We could get a much more severe weakness of demand than we were expecting, that could then pass through to a weaker outlook for inflation than we were expecting.”

“There’s a risk on the other side that we could get some combination of more persistence in the inflation effects that are gradually working their way through the system,” such as in wages and energy, while “supply capacity in the economy is weaker,” he said.

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Economics

Trump knocks down a controversial pillar of civil-rights law

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IN THE DELUGE of 145 executive orders issued by President Donald Trump (on subjects as disparate as “Restoring American Seafood Competitiveness” and “Maintaining Acceptable Water Pressure in Showerheads”) it can be difficult to discern which are truly consequential. But one of them, signed on April 23rd under the bland headline “Restoring Equality of Opportunity and Meritocracy”, aims to remake civil-rights law. Those primed to distrust Mr Trump on such matters may be surprised to learn that the president’s target is not just important but also well-chosen.

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