Mortgage rates have risen in recent months, even as the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates.
While those opposing movements may seem counterintuitive, they’re due to market forces that seem unlikely to ease much in the near term, according to economists and other finance experts.
That may leave prospective homebuyers with a tough choice. They can either delay their home purchase or forge ahead with current mortgage rates. The latter option is complicated by elevated home prices, experts said.
“If what you’re hoping or wishing for is an interest rate at 4%, or housing prices to drop 20%, I personally don’t think either one of those things is remotely likely in the near term,” said Lee Baker, a certified financial planner based in Atlanta and a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council.
Mortgage rates at 7% mean a ‘dead’ market
Rates for a 30-year fixed mortgage jumped above 7% during the week ended Jan. 16, according to Freddie Mac. They’ve risen gradually since late September, when they had touched a recent low near 6%.
Current rates represent a bit of whiplash for consumers, who were paying less than 3% for a 30-year fixed mortgage as recently as November 2021, before the Fed raised borrowing costs sharply to tame high U.S. inflation.
“Anything over 7%, the market is dead,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s. “No one is going to buy.”
Mortgage rates need to get closer to 6% or below to “see the housing market come back to life,” he said.
The financial calculus shows why: Consumers with a 30-year, $300,000 fixed mortgage at 5% would pay about $1,610 a month in principal and interest, according to a Bankrate analysis. They’d pay about $1,996 — roughly $400 more a month — at 7%, it said.
Meanwhile, the Fed began cutting interest rates in September as inflation has throttled back. The central bank reduced its benchmark rate three times over that period, by a full percentage point.
Despite that Fed policy shift, mortgage rates are unlikely to dip back to 6% until 2026, Zandi said. There are underlying forces that “won’t go away quickly,” he said.
“It may very well be the case that mortgage rates push higher before they moderate,” Zandi said.
Why have mortgage rates increased?
The first thing to know: Mortgage rates are tied more closely to the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds than to the Fed’s benchmark interest rate, said Baker, the founder of Claris Financial Advisors.
Those Treasury yields were about 4.6% as of Tuesday, up from about 3.6% in September.
Investors who buy and sell Treasury bonds influence those yields. They appear to have risen in recent months as investors have gotten worried about the inflationary impact of President Donald Trump’s proposed policies, experts said.
Policies like tariffs and mass deportations of immigrants are expected to increase inflation, if they come to pass, experts said. The Fed may lower borrowing costs more slowly if that happens — and potentially raise them again, experts said.
Indeed, Fed officials recently cited “upside risks” to inflation because of the potential effects of changes to trade and immigration policy.
Investors are also worried about how a large package of anticipated tax changes under the Trump administration might raise the federal deficit, Zandi said.
There are other factors influencing Treasury yields, too.
For example, the Fed has been reducing its holdings of Treasury bonds and mortgage securities via its quantitative tightening policy, while Chinese investors have “turned more circumspect” in their buying of Treasurys and Japanese investors are less interested as they can now get a return on their own bonds, Zandi said.
Mortgage rates “probably won’t fall below 6% until 2026, assuming everything goes as expected,” said Joe Seydl, senior markets economist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank.
The mortgage premium is historically high
Grace Cary | Moment | Getty Images
Lenders typically price mortgages at a premium over 10-year Treasury yields.
That premium, also known as a “spread,” was about 1.7 percentage points from 1990 to 2019, on average, Seydl said.
The current spread is about 2.4 percentage points — roughly 0.7 points higher than the historical average.
There are a few reasons for the higher spread: For example, market volatility had made lenders more conservative in their mortgage underwriting, and that conservatism was exacerbated by the regional banking “shock” in 2023, which caused a “severe tightening of lending standards,” Seydl said.
“All told, 2025 is likely to be another year where housing affordability remains severely challenged,” he said.
That higher premium is “exacerbating the housing affordability challenge” for consumers, Seydl said.
The typical homebuyer paid $406,100 for an existing home in November, up 5% from $387,800 a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors.
What can consumers do?
In the current housing and mortgage market, financial advisor Baker suggests consumers ask themselves: Is buying a home the right financial move for me right now? Or will I be a renter instead, at least for the foreseeable future?
Those who want to buy a home should try to put down a “significant” down payment, to reduce the size of their mortgage and help it fit more easily in their monthly budget, Baker said.
Don’t subject the savings for a down payment to the whims of the stock market, he said.
“That’s not something you should gamble with in the market,” he said.
Savers can still get a roughly 4% to 5% return from a money market fund, high-yield bank savings account or certificate of deposit, for example.
Some consumers may also wish to get an adjustable rate mortgage instead of a fixed rate mortgage — an approach that may get consumers a better mortgage rate now but could saddle buyers with higher payments later due to fluctuating rates, Baker said.
“You’re taking a gamble,” Baker said.
He doesn’t recommend the approach for someone on a fixed income in retirement, for example, since it’s unlikely there’d be room in their budget to accommodate potentially higher monthly payments in the future, he said.
Under the Biden administration, the U.S. Department of Education made regular announcements that it was forgiving student debt for thousands of people under various relief programs and repayment plans.
“You have the administration trying to limit PSLF credits, and clear attacks on the income-based repayment with forgiveness options,” said Malissa Giles, a consumer bankruptcy attorney in Virginia.
The White House did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
Here’s what to know about the current status of federal student loan forgiveness opportunities.
Forgiveness chances narrow on repayment plans
The Biden administration’s new student loan repayment plan,Saving on a Valuable Education, or SAVE, isn’t expected to survive under Trump, experts say. A U.S. appeals court already blocked the plan in February after a GOP-led challenge to the program.
SAVE came with two key provisions that lawsuits targeted: It had lower monthly payments than any other federal student loan repayment plan, and it led to quicker debt erasure for those with small balances.
“I personally think you will see SAVE dismantled through the courts or the administration,” Giles said.
But the Education Department under Trump is now arguing that the ruling by the 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals required it to end the loan forgiveness under repayment plans beyond SAVE. As a result, the Pay As You Earn and Income-Contingent Repayment options no longer wipe debt away after a certain number of years.
There’s some good news: At least one repayment plan still leads to debt erasure, said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz. That plan is called Income-Based Repayment.
If a borrower enrolled in ICR or PAYE eventually switches to IBR, their previous payments made under the other plans will count toward loan forgiveness under IBR, as long as they meet the IBR’s other requirements, Kantrowitz said. (Some borrowers may opt to take that strategy if they have a lower monthly bill under ICR or PAYE than they would on IBR.)
Public Service Loan Forgiveness remains
Despite Trump‘s executive order in March aimed at limiting eligibility for Public Service Loan Forgiveness, the program remains intact. Any changes to the program would likely take months or longer to materialize, and may even need congressional approval, experts say.
PSLF, which President George W. Bush signed into law in 2007, allows many not-for-profit and government employees to have their federal student loans canceled after 10 years of payments.
What’s more, any changes to PSLF can’t be retroactive, consumer advocates say. That means that if you are currently working for or previously worked for an organization that the Trump administration later excludes from the program, you’ll still get credit for that time — at least up until when the changes go into effect.
For now, the language in the president’s executive order was fairly vague. As a result, it remains unclear exactly which organizations will no longer be considered a qualifying employer under PSLF, experts said.
However, in his first few months in office, Trump has targeted immigrants, transgender and nonbinary people and those who work to increase diversity across the private and public sector. Many nonprofits work in these spaces, providing legal support or doing advocacy and education work.
For now, those pursuing PSLF should print out a copy of their payment history on StudentAid.gov or request one from their loan servicer. They should keep a record of the number of qualifying payments they’ve made so far, said Jessica Thompson, senior vice president of The Institute for College Access & Success.
“We urge borrowers to save all documentation of their payments, payment counts, and employer certifications to ensure they have any information that might be useful in the future,” Thompson said.
Other loan cancellation opportunities to consider
Federal student loan borrowers also remain entitled to a number of other student loan forgiveness opportunities.
The Teacher Loan Forgiveness program offers up to $17,500 in loan cancellation to those who’ve worked full time for “complete and consecutive academic years in a low-income school or educational service agency,” among other requirements, according to the Education Department.
(One thing to note: This program can’t be combined with PSLF, and so borrowers should decide which avenue makes the most sense for them.)
In less common circumstances, you may be eligible for a full discharge of your federal student loans under Borrower Defense if your school closed while you were enrolled or if you were misled by your school or didn’t receive a quality education.
Borrowers may qualify for a Total and Permanent Disability discharge if they suffer from a mental or physical disability that is severe and permanent and prevents them from working. Proof of the disability can come from a doctor, the Social Security Administration or the Department of Veterans Affairs.
With the federal government rolling back student loan forgiveness measures, experts also recommend that borrowers explore the many state-level relief programs available. The Institute of Student Loan Advisors has a database of student loan forgiveness programs by state.
Many Americans are worried they’ll run out of money in retirement.
In fact, a new survey from Allianz Life finds that 64% Americans worry more about running out of money than they do about dying. Among the reasons cited for those fears include high inflation, Social Security benefits not providing enough support and high taxes.
The fear of running out of money was most prominent for Gen Xers who are approaching retirement. However, a majority of millennials and baby boomers also said they worry about their money lasting, according to the online survey of 1,000 individuals conducted between January and February.
Separately, a new Employee Benefit Research Institute report finds most retirees say they are living the lifestyle they envisioned and are able to spend money within reason. Yet more than half of those surveyed agreed at least somewhat that they spend less because of worries they will run out of money, according to the survey of more than 2,700 individuals conducted between January and February.
Meanwhile, a Northwestern Mutual survey reported that 51% of Americans think it’s “somewhat or very likely” they will outlive their savings. The survey polled 4,626 U.S. adults aged 18 and older in January.
Since those studies were conducted, new tariff policies have caused disturbance in the stock markets and prompted speculation that inflation may increase. Meanwhile, new leadership at the Social Security Administration has prompted fears about the continuity of benefits. Those headlines may negatively affect retirement confidence, experts say.
With employers now providing a 401(k) plan and other savings plans versus pensions, it is largely up to workers to manage how much they save heading into retirement and how much they spend once they reach that life stage. That responsibility can also lead to worries of running out of money in the future, experts say.
How to manage the ‘fear of outliving your resources’
Because of the unique risks every individual or couple faces when planning for retirement, the best approach is typically to transfer some of that burden to a third party, said David Blanchett, head of retirement research at PGIM DC Solutions.
Creating a guaranteed lifetime income stream that covers essential expenses can help reduce the financial impact of any events that require retirees to cut back on spending, Blanchett explained.
That should first start with delaying Social Security benefits, he said. While eligible retirees can claim benefits as early as 62, holding off up until age 70 can provide the biggest monthly benefits. Social Security is also unique in that it provides annual adjustments for inflation.
Next, retirees may want to consider buying a lifetime income annuity that can help amplify the monthly income they can expect. Admittedly, those products can be complicated to understand. Therefore Blanchett recommends starting out by comparing very basic products like single premium immediate annuities that are easier to compare.
“Unless you do those things, you just can’t get rid of that fear of outliving your resources,” Blanchett said.
Without a guaranteed income stream, retirees bear all of the financial risk themselves, he said.
“Retirement could last 10 years; it could last 40 years,” Blanchett said. “You just don’t know how long it’s going to be.”
Among retirees, there has been some hesitation to buy annuities, said Craig Copeland, EBRI’s director of wealth benefits research. Such a purchase requires parting with a lump sum of money in exchange for the promise of a guaranteed income stream.
“We see great increase in interest, but we aren’t seeing upticks in take up yet,” Copeland said. “I do think that’s going to start to change.”
What can help boost retirement confidence
To effectively plan for retirement, it helps to seek professional financial assistance, experts say.
Meanwhile, few people have a plan of their own for how they may live on the assets they’ve worked hard to accumulate, according to Kelly LaVigne, vice president of consumer insights at Allianz Life.
“This is something that you should not plan on doing on your own,” LaVigne said.
While the survey from Northwestern Mutual separately found individuals think they need $1.26 million to retire comfortably, the real number individuals need is based on their personal situation, said Kyle Menke, founder and wealth management advisor at Menke Financial, a Northwestern Mutual company.
In thinking about how life will look in 30 years, there are a variety of things to consider, Menke said. This includes stock market returns, taxes, inflation and medical expenses, he said.
Even people who have enough money for retirement often don’t feel confident in their ability to manage all of those factors on their own, he said. Financial advisors have the ability to run different simulations and stress test a plan, which can help give retirees and aspiring retirees the confidence they’re lacking.
“I think that’s where the biggest gap is,” said Menke, referring to the confidence Americans are lacking without a plan.
Shipping containers at the Port of Seattle on April 16, 2025.
David Ryder/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Tariffs levied by President Donald Trump during his second term would hurt the poorest U.S. households more than the richest over the short term, according to a new analysis.
Tariffs are a tax that importers pay on foreign goods. Economists expect consumers to shoulder at least some of that tax burden in the form of higher prices, depending on how businesses pass along the costs.
In 2026, taxes for the poorest 20% of households would rise about four times more than those in the top 1%, if the current tariff policies were to stay in place. Those were findings according to an analysis published Wednesday by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy.
For the bottom 20% of households — who will have incomes of less than $29,000 in 2026 — the tariffs will impose a tax increase equal to 6.2% of their income that year, on average, according to ITEP’s analysis.
Meanwhile, those in the top 1%, with an income of more than $915,000 a year, would see their taxes rise 1.7% relative to their income, on average, ITEP found.
Economists analyze the financial impact of policy relative to household income because it illustrates how their disposable income — and quality of life — are impacted.
Taxes by ‘another name’
“Tariffs are just taxes on Americans by another name,” researchers at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, wrote in 2017, during Trump’s first term.
“[They] raise the price of food and clothing, which make up a larger share of a low-income household’s budget,” they wrote, adding: “In fact, cutting tariffs could be the biggest tax cut low-income families will ever see.”
A recent analysis by the Yale Budget Lab also found that Trump tariffs are a “regressive” policy, meaning they hurt those at the bottom more than the top.
The short-term tax burden of tariffs is about 2.5 times greater for those at the bottom, the Yale analysis found. It examined tariffs and retaliatory trade measures through April 15.
“Lower income consumers are going to get pinched more by tariffs,” said Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Yale Budget Lab and former chief economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisers during the Biden administration.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said tariffs may lead to a “one-time price adjustment” for consumers. But he also coupled trade policy as part of a broader White House economic agenda that includes a forthcoming legislative package of tax cuts.
“We’re also working on the tax bill and for working Americans, I believe that the reduction in taxes is going to be substantially more,” Bessent said April 2.
It’s also unclear how current tariff policy might change. The White House has signaled trade deals with certain nations and exemptions for certain products may be in the offing.
Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on imports from most U.S. trading partners. Mexico and Canada face 25% levies on a tranche of goods, and many Chinese goods face import duties of 145%. Specific products also face tariffs, like a 25% duty on aluminum, steel and automobiles.