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The Fed is clearly worried tariffs may be more inflationary than previously, says KPMG's Diane Swonk

The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday it will leave interest rates unchanged as inflation continues to run above the Fed’s 2% mandate.

The move comes after the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by a full percentage point last year and in the wake of President Donald Trump‘s comment during his first week back in office that he’ll “demand that interest rates drop immediately.”

The latest CNBC Fed Survey showed expectations for only two rate cuts later in the year, the same number penciled in by Federal Reserve officials in their recent forecasts.

“While inflation concerns have significantly abated, they still remain,” said Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion. “As a result, it is quite possible that there will be fewer rate cuts over the course of next year than anticipated only a few months ago.”

For consumers struggling under the weight of high prices and high borrowing costs, that means there will be little relief to come. It also means Trump may further challenge the Fed’s independence.

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Inflation has been an ongoing issue since the pandemic, when price increases soared to their highest levels since the early 1980s. The Fed responded with a series of interest rate hikes that took its benchmark rate to its highest level in more than 22 years.

On the campaign trail, Trump said inflation and high interest rates are “destroying our country.”

The federal funds rate, which is set by the U.S. central bank, is the rate at which banks borrow and lend to one another overnight. Although that’s not the rate consumers pay, the Fed’s moves still affect the borrowing and savings rates they see every day.

The spike in interest rates caused most consumer borrowing costs to skyrocket, putting many households under pressure.

Even though the central bank has already started cutting its benchmark rate and more rate cuts are on the horizon, consumers won’t see their borrowing costs come down significantly, according to Greg McBride, Bankrate’s chief financial analyst.

“The rate cuts are not going to be big enough or often enough to do the heaving lifting for you,” he said.

From credit cards and mortgage rates to auto loans and savings accounts, here’s a look at where those rates could go in 2025.

Credit cards

Since most credit cards have a variable rate, there’s a direct connection to the Fed’s benchmark. In the wake of the rate hike cycle, the average credit card rate rose from 16.34% in March 2022 to more than 20% today — near an all-time high.

Annual percentage rates will continue to come down as the central bank reduces rates, but they are only easing off extremely high levels. With only a few potential quarter-point cuts on deck, APRs aren’t likely to fall much, according to Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree.

“Anyone hoping for the Fed to ride in as the cavalry and rescue you from high interest rates anytime soon is going to be really disappointed,” he said.

Try consolidating and paying off high-interest credit cards with a lower-interest personal loan or switching to an interest-free balance transfer credit card, Schulz advised: “A 0% balance transfer credit card can be an absolute lifesaver.”

Mortgage rates

Although 15- and 30-year mortgage rates are fixed, and tied to Treasury yields and the economy, anyone shopping for a new home has lost considerable purchasing power, partly because of inflation and the Fed’s policy moves.

The average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is now just above 7%, according to Bankrate.

Going forward, McBride expects mortgage rates to “spend most of the year in the 6% range,” he said. But since most people have fixed-rate mortgages, their rate won’t change unless they refinance or sell their current home and buy another property. 

Auto loans

Even though auto loans are fixed, payments are getting bigger and less affordable because car prices have been rising along with the interest rates on new loans.

The average rate on a five-year new car loan is 5.3%, according to January data from Edmunds compiled for CNBC.

“With the Fed signaling that any rate cuts in 2025 will be gradual, affordability challenges are likely to persist for most new vehicle buyers,” said Joseph Yoon, Edmunds’ consumer insights analyst.

“The average transaction price of a new vehicle remains near $50,000, driving average loan amounts to record highs,” he said. “Although further rate cuts in 2025 could provide some relief, the continued upward trend in new vehicle pricing makes it difficult to anticipate significant improvements in affordability for consumers in the new year.”  

Student loans

Federal student loan rates are also fixed, so most borrowers aren’t immediately affected by any Fed moves.

However, undergraduate students who took out direct federal student loans for the 2024-25 academic year are paying 6.53%, up from 5.50% in 2023-24. Interest rates for the upcoming school year will be based in part on the May auction of the 10-year Treasury note.

Private student loans tend to have a variable rate tied to the prime, Treasury bill or another rate index, which means those borrowers are typically paying more in interest. How much more, however, varies with the benchmark.

Savings rates

While the central bank has no direct influence on deposit rates, the yields tend to be correlated to changes in the target federal funds rate.

In recent years, top-yielding online savings accounts have offered the best returns in over a decade and still pay nearly 5%.

“While the Fed putting the brakes on interest rate cuts stinks for those with debt, it is welcome news for savers,” Schulz said. “That means that it is still a really opportune time to shop for a high-yield savings account. Sure, you’ve missed out on the peak, but there are still plenty of good returns to be found.”

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Personal Finance

Trump funding freeze is existential threat: Morehouse College president

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Morehouse College President David Thomas speaks during Morehouse College’s graduation ceremony, before US President Joe Biden delivers his commencement address, in Atlanta, Georgia on May 19, 2024. 

Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | Afp | Getty Images

David Thomas, the president of Morehouse College, said his office fielded a surge of calls this week from worried students and their families concerned the Trump Administration’s “federal funding freeze” would directly impact college access

The sudden scramble was “perhaps only rivaled by what happened in March of 2020 when we realized that the Covid pandemic was truly a threat,” Thomas told CNBC. He became president of Morehouse, one of the country’s top historically Black colleges and universities, or HBCUs, in 2018.

This freeze on federal aid “would create another existential threat as great as the pandemic,” he said.

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Thomas’ comments come amid ongoing confusion about how a freeze on federal grants and loans could potentially impact students and schools.

A Jan. 27 memo issued by the Office of Management and Budget, which would affect billions of dollars in aid, said the pause on federal grants and loans “does not include assistance provided directly to individuals.”

Although the memo was later rescinded, the White House said a “federal funding freeze” remains in “full force and effect.” It is currently on hold amid legal challenges.

Thomas, who is also on the Board of Trustees at Yale University, said college leaders across the country have spent the better part of the week focused on “the consequences of this action.” Morehouse immediately initiated a hiring freeze in preparation for a potentially significant financial disruption.

“All of the institutions are still in limbo,” he said.

What college aid may be affected

At Morehouse College, about 40% of the student body relies on Federal Pell Grants, a type of federal aid available to low-income families.

Following the memo’s release, the Education Department announced that the freeze would not affect student loans or Pell Grants.

“The temporary pause does not impact Title I, IDEA, or other formula grants, nor does it apply to Federal Pell Grants and Direct Loans under Title IV [of the Higher Education Act],” Education Department spokesperson Madi Biedermann said in a statement.

In addition to the federal financial aid programs that fall under Title IV, Title I provides financial assistance to school districts with children from low-income families. The Individuals with Disabilities Education Act, or IDEA, provides funding for students with disabilities.

The funding pause “only applies to discretionary grants at the Department of Education,” Biedermann said. “These will be reviewed by Department leadership for alignment with Trump Administration priorities.”

President Trump moves to halt federal grants

But questions remain about other aid for college.

The freeze could affect federal work-study programs and the Federal Supplemental Educational Opportunity Grant, which are provided in bulk to colleges to provide to students, according to Kalman Chany, a financial aid consultant and author of The Princeton Review’s “Paying for College.”

The disruption to federally backed research funding also poses a threat to college programs and staff.

‘Lots of reasons to still be concerned’

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Personal Finance

What federal employees need to consider when evaluating offer to resign

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A “Do not cross” sign is illuminated at a crosswalk outside of U.S. Capitol building in Washington, US, November 10, 2024. 

Hannah Mckay | Reuters

The Trump administration emailed more than 2 million federal workers this week, giving them the option to resign now and get pay and benefits through Sept. 30.

Workers have until Feb. 6 to accept the “deferred resignation” offer.

The payouts come on the heels of President Donald Trump‘s executive order to end DEI programs. On Wednesday, he said federal workers need to return to the office five days a week “or be terminated.”

“We think a very substantial number of people will not show up to work, and therefore our government will get smaller and more efficient,” Trump said at the signing of an immigration detention law.

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Experts advise federal employees to take their time before accepting the offer. By accepting the resignation, tenured federal employees could lose certain rights they may have.

“If you resign, it’s deemed voluntary,” said Michael L. Vogelsang, Jr., a principal of The Employment Law Group, P.C. “If you are a permanent, tenured employee in the government and the administration wants you out, laws still exist that federal employees cannot just be fired on a whim.”

Meanwhile, some lawmakers question whether the president can make this offer without Congressional approval.

Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Virginia, said federal employees should not be “fooled” by Trump’s proposal.

“If you accept that offer and resign, he’ll stiff you,” Kaine said. “He doesn’t have any authority to do this.” 

The Voluntary Separation Incentive Payment Authority gives federal agencies the authority to offer buyout incentives for some employees to resign or retire, but it is capped at $25,000.

Asked for more detail on the payouts, including what authority the president has to offer to pay through September 30, the White House referred back to its statement given on Tuesday.

“If they don’t want to work in the office and contribute to making America great again, then they are free to choose a different line of work and the Trump Administration will provide a very generous payout of eight months,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement.

There is already uncertainty around current funding for the federal government. It’s operating under a short-term continuing resolution passed in December. Unless Congress acts, the federal government could shut down on March 14. 

Unlike with corporate buyouts, federal employees who received this offer can’t appeal for a better deal, experts say.

“Usually with buyouts, I think of more severance, and usually it’s sort of some kind of negotiation. This isn’t really negotiation. It’s sort of a unilateral offer,” Vogelsang said.

Still, some of the factors to consider for weighing the government’s deferred resignation offer are similar to what one would weigh in a corporate buyout, experts say:

Consider how much your position is at risk

For federal employees who aren’t permanent, Vogelsang says they should consider how much their position is at risk and if their skills make it likely they’ll be able to find another job. 

“I think there’s enough executive orders out there that people in DEI, probationary employees, IRS employees, environmental employees, can probably read between the lines that their positions may be at risk moving forward,” he said.

Research job alternatives 

Career experts advise not waiting to begin the job search.

“Start thinking about your search now, because it’s going to be longer than you think, especially with people flooding the market,” said Caroline Ceniza-Levine, a career coach and founder of Dream Career Club. 

Prepare for a job search by updating your LinkedIn profile, identifying your accomplishments and reflecting on professional achievements so you can explain them clearly and concisely. “You don’t get every job that you apply for, and that can be a very frustrating and emotionally draining process,” said Ron Seifert, senior client partner at the staffing firm Korn Ferry. 

Consider the work culture if you stay

Think about the culture and career implications of rejecting the offer. A question to ask yourself is, “If I’m still here after this is done, what will this place feel like?” Seifert said. “Is this a place where I have opportunity?”

“I would caution people against making decisions when they’re in the panic zone,” said Connie Whittaker Dunlop, principal of Monarch Consulting Group. “There are a fair number of unknowns, but if you can kind of ground yourself in what you know, what you value, and then make that, make a decision from that space, I think,  people will be better served.” 

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These child tax credit mistakes can halt your refund, experts say

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Millions of families claim the child tax credit every year — and filing mistakes can delay the processing of your return and receipt of your refund, according to tax experts. 

For 2024 returns, the child tax credit is worth up to $2,000 per kid under age 17, and decreases once adjusted gross income exceeds $200,000 for single taxpayers or $400,000 for married couples filing jointly.  

The refundable portion, known as the additional child tax credit, or ACTC, is up to $1,700. Filers can claim the ACTC even without taxes owed, which often benefits lower earners.

However, a lower-income family who doesn’t know how to claim the credit “misses out on thousands of dollars,” National Taxpayer Advocate Erin Collins wrote in her annual report to Congress released in January. 

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More than 18 million filers claimed the additional child tax credit in 2022, according to the latest IRS estimates. 

By law, the IRS can’t issue ACTC refunds before mid-February. But the Where’s My Refund portal should have status updates by Feb. 22 for most early filers, according to the IRS.  

Here’s how to avoid common child tax credit mistakes that could further delay your refund.

Know if you have a ‘qualifying child’

One child tax credit mistake is not knowing eligibility.

The rules can be “very confusing,” according to Tom O’Saben, an enrolled agent and director of tax content and government relations at the National Association of Tax Professionals.

To claim the child tax credit or ACTC, you must have a “qualifying child,” according to the IRS. The qualifying child guidelines include:

  • Age: 17 years old at the end of the tax year
  • Relationship: Your son, daughter, stepchild, eligible foster child, brother, sister, stepbrother, stepsister, half-brother, half-sister or a descendant of these
  • Dependent status: Dependent on your tax return
  • Filing status: Child is not filing jointly
  • Residency: Lived with you for more than half the year
  • Support: Didn’t pay for more than half of their living expenses
  • Citizenship: U.S. citizen, U.S. national or a U.S. resident alien  
  • Social Security number: Valid Social Security number by tax due date (including extensions) 

You may avoid some eligibility errors by filing via tax software or using a preparer versus filing a paper return on your own, O’Saben said. Tax software typically includes credit eligibility, which can minimize errors.

Missing Social Security number

Typically, parents apply for a Social Security number in the hospital when completing their baby’s birth certificate. But it can take one to six weeks from application to receive that number, according to the agency, which can create time pressure for families with a new addition around tax season.

Filing a tax return and claiming the child tax credit before receiving the Social Security number is a mistake, O’Saben said.

“I have seen [the child tax credit] denied for people who have filed before they got the Social Security number for a dependent,” he said. “And there’s no going back.”

If you don’t have the number before the tax deadline, you should request an extension, which gives you six months more to file your return, O’Saben explained.

However, you still must pay taxes owed by the original deadline.

Tax Tip: Child Credit

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