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How tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico may impact U.S. consumers

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President Donald Trump on Jan. 27, 2025 in Doral, Florida.

Joe Raedle | Getty Images News | Getty Images

President Donald Trump has repeatedly discussed imposing tariffs, both on the campaign trail and since taking office — and the first tranche, on goods from Canada, China and Mexico will take effect Feb. 1, the White House confirmed on Friday.

While there are still some unknowns, one thing is clear, economists said: U.S. consumers should brace for a negative financial impact.

It’s “hard to find positives” from tariffs, said Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, whose research specializes in trade with China and global supply chains.

Trump plans to put 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, and a 10% duty on China, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said Friday.

China, Mexico and Canada are the three largest trading partners with the U.S., as measured by imported goods. They respectively supplied about $536 billion, $455 billion, and $437 billion of goods to the U.S. in 2022, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

President Trump to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Feb. 1

Tariffs are a tax on foreign imports. U.S. businesses pay that tax to the federal government.

Many businesses will funnel those extra costs to customers — either directly or indirectly — which is why tariffs generally trigger higher prices for consumers, economists said.

“Part of these tariffs will be passed on to consumers,” Lovely said.

Americans could also find they have fewer choices for brands and products stocked on store shelves, she said.

Exemptions may ‘limit the damage’ to consumers

There are still many question marks over the looming tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico.

For example, it’s unclear if any imports will be exempt. Trump suggested this week, for example, that Canadian oil might be exempt. The White House said the tariffs will be open for public inspection on Saturday.

Discussions around such specifics are “ongoing,” a White House official told CNBC Friday morning.

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“There are always exemptions and carve-outs,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s.

Trump might try to “limit the damage to the U.S. consumer” via those exemptions, Zandi said. For example, he could choose not to impose duties on apparel from China, avocados from Mexico or cheese from Quebec, he said.

Debates about economic impact

The White House expects tariffs and Trump’s broader economic agenda to benefit the U.S. economy.

Trump imposed tariffs during his first term that — along with tax cuts, deregulation and energy policy — “resulted in historic job, wage, and investment growth with no inflation,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a written statement.

During his second term, Trump will use tariffs again to “usher in a new era of growth and prosperity for American industry and workers,” Desai said.

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A 25% Canada-Mexico tariff and 10% China tariff would raise about $1.3 trillion in revenue through 2035 on a net basis, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates. That revenue may be used to partially offset the cost of tax cuts, a package that might cost more than $5 trillion over 10 years.

However, a 10% additional tariff on China would shrink the U.S. economy by $55 billion during the Trump administration’s second term, assuming China retaliates with its own tariffs, according to an analysis by Warwick McKibbin and Marcus Noland, economists at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

A 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada would cause a $200 billion reduction in U.S. gross domestic product, they found.

Meanwhile, economists expect more tariffs in the future.

On the campaign trail, Trump floated a 10% or 20% universal tariff on all imports and a tariff of at least 60% on Chinese goods, for example.

A 20% worldwide tariff and a 60% levy on Chinese goods would raise costs by $3,000 in 2025 for the average U.S. household, according to an October analysis by the Tax Policy Center.

“Broad-based, universal tariffs and the damage they will do is not really a debate,” Zandi said. “They will do damage. It’s just a question of how much and to whom.”

How tariffs may impact consumers

Consumers can pay for tariffs both directly and indirectly, economists said.

Tariffs on China would likely have such the largest direct impact on consumers — the bulk of what China exports to the U.S. is consumer goods like apparel, toys and electronics, Zandi said.

China is the “dominant supplier” of toys and sports equipment to the U.S., and provides 40% of its footwear imports, and 25% of its electronics and textiles, according to a recent analysis by PIIE economists.

Mexico and Canada tariffs would also “put upward pressure on food prices,” according to PIIE economists.

The nations are “important sources” of vegetables, accounting for 47% of total U.S. imports, and prepared foodstuffs (42%), for example. Transportation equipment and machinery, electronics and fuel are other sectors that stand to be most impacted, they found.

“The U.S. imports roughly 40% of its crude oil, with Canada as the dominant supplier,” Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, a financial consulting firm, said in a written statement.

“If oil is hit with tariffs, the impact could hit energy markets, pushing up costs for businesses and consumers,” Green wrote.

However, domestic energy producers, certain U.S. manufacturers and other industries “could see short-term gains from reduced competition,” he added.

Indirectly, U.S. producers might raise their prices because they face less foreign competition for certain goods, Lydia Cox, an assistant professor of economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said during a recent webinar.

U.S. companies that use tariffed goods to manufacture their products might also raise prices for downstream goods, Cox said. For example, steel tariffs might lead to higher prices for cars, heavy machinery and other products that use steel.

Tariffs ‘create a lot of collateral damage’

Other nations might also respond with retaliatory tariffs that start a trade war, which might cause U.S. producers to lose sales abroad, she said.

“Unlike Canada and Mexico, for which retaliation would be inconceivable, China has retaliated in the past and would likely do so again,” PIIE economists wrote recently.

Further, tariffs may have the unintended consequence of destroying jobs, economists said.

Their ability to create U.S. jobs is “vastly, vastly overstated,” said Lovely of PIIE.

Take steel, for example. There are 80 workers in jobs in industries that use steel as an input for every one job that produces steel, Cox found in a recent paper.

Tariffs create “a lot of collateral damage along the way,” which is why economists warn against broad-based use, Cox said.

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How credit cycling works and why it’s risky

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Olga Rolenko | Moment | Getty Images

There are all sorts of ways for consumers to misuse credit cards, from failing to pay monthly bills in full to running up your balance. But here’s one risky behavior that experts say you likely haven’t heard of: “credit cycling.”

Credit cards come with a spending limit. Cardholders are usually aware of this limit, which represents the overall cap to how much they can borrow. The limit resets with each billing statement when users pay their bill in full and on time.

Users who credit-cycle will reach that limit and quickly pay down their balance; this frees up more headroom so consumers can effectively charge beyond their typical allowance.

Doing this occasionally is usually not a big deal, experts said. It’s akin to driving a few miles per hour over the speed limit — something less likely to get a driver pulled over for speeding, said Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at CreditCards.com.

But consistently “churning” through available credit comes with risks, Rossman said.

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For example, card issuers may cancel a user’s card and take away their reward points, experts said. This might negatively impact a user’s credit score, they said.

“If there’s even the slightest chance credit cycling can go sideways, it’s best not to do it and look for alternatives,” said Bruce McClary, senior vice president at the National Foundation for Credit Counseling. “You have to be very careful.”

Card companies see credit cycling as a risk

The average American’s credit card limit was about $34,000 at the end of the second quarter of 2024, according to Experian, one the three major credit bureaus. (This was the limit across all their cards.)

The amount varies across generations, and according to factors like income and credit usage, according to Experian.

It’s understandable why some consumers would want to credit cycle, experts said.

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Certain consumers may have a relatively low credit limit, and credit cycling might help them pay for a big-ticket purchase like a home repair, wedding or a costly vacation, experts said. Others may do it to accelerate the rewards and points they get for making purchases, they said.

But card issuers would likely see repeat offenders as a red flag, Rossman said.

Credit card debt?

Maxing out a card frequently may run afoul of certain terms and conditions, or signal that a user is experiencing financial difficulty and struggling to stay within their budget, he said.

Issuers may also view it as a potential sign of illegal activity like money laundering, he said.

“You could be putting yourself at risk by appearing to be a risk in that way,” McClary said.

Credit cycling consequences

Further, a card company could flag misuse as a reason for the account closure, potentially making the user look like more of a risk to future creditors, he added.

Consistently butting up against one’s credit limit also increases the chances of accidentally breaching that threshold, McClary said. Doing so could lead creditors to charge over-limit fees or raise a user’s interest rate, he said.

Consumers who credit-cycle should be cognizant of any recurring monthly subscriptions or other charges that might inadvertently push them over the limit, he said.

What to do instead

Instead of credit cycling, consumers may be better served by asking their card issuer for a higher credit limit, opening a new credit card account or spreading payments over more than one card, Rossman said.

As a general practice, Rossman is a “big fan” of paying down one’s credit card bill early, such as in the middle of the billing cycle instead of waiting for the end. (To be clear, this isn’t the same as credit cycling, since consumers wouldn’t be paying down their balance early in order to spend beyond their allotted credit.)

This can reduce a consumer’s credit utilization rate — and boost one’s credit score — since card balances are generally only reported to the credit bureaus at the end of the monthly billing cycle, he said.

“It can be a good way to improve your score, especially if you use your card a lot,” he said.

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Summer Fridays are increasingly rare as hybrid schedules gain steam

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People enjoy an unusually warm day in New York City as temperatures reach the low 80s on June 4, 2025 in New York City.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

Summer Fridays may be considered the most desirable perk of the season, but fewer employers are on board with the shortened workweek.

Companies have steadily phased out summer Fridays — a policy that allows workers to take Friday afternoon off over the summer months — as work-from-home Fridays became more common, experts say.

“Pre-pandemic, summer Fridays were thing, but hybrid overall has taken over,” said Bill Driscoll, technology workplace trends expert at staffing and consulting firm Robert Half.

As more commuters settle into flexible working arrangements, fewer workers are making Friday trips at all compared to mid-week traffic patterns, according to the 2024 Global Traffic Scorecard released in January by INRIX Inc., a traffic-data analysis firm.

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Among employees, however, summer Fridays are the most valued summer benefit, followed by summer hours and flextime, according to a new survey by job site Monster, which polled more than 400 U.S. workers in June. 

“Summer Fridays are highly valued among workers because, for many, they represent more than just a few extra hours off,” said Scott Blumsack, Monster’s chief strategy and marketing officer. This perk “can go a long way in showing employees they’re valued, which can help prevent burnout, boost morale, and improve retention during a season when disengagement can run high.”

Still, 84% of workers are not offered any summer-specific benefits, even though 55% also said those benefits improve productivity, Monster found.

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Instead, hybrid — and to a lesser extent fully remote — job postings have increased in the last year as employers compete for talented job seekers who prioritize flexibility, according to research by Robert Half.

“Hybrid is a highly desirable situation right now and one that all levels of employees are looking for,” said Robert Half’s Driscoll.

More than five years after the pandemic, 72% of organizations also have return-to-office mandates, according to a separate hybrid work study by Cisco.

But, even with the mandates, employees are less likely to work in the office on Fridays, and much more likely to commute Monday to Thursday, Cisco found.

Employees value flexibility

As employee burnout and disengagement grows amid the wave of in-office mandates, work-life balance and flexible hours have become increasingly important, other studies show.

Corporate wellness company Exos, which works with large organizations such as JetBlue and Adobe, says burnout has gone down significantly among employees at firms that have made Fridays more flexible. Exos also tested out “You Do You Fridays” — and found significant benefits.

The more adaptable the schedule, the more positively employees view their company’s policies, the Cisco report also found.

With hybrid arrangements now common, workers put a high value on that flexibility — and 63% of all workers would even accept a pay cut for the option to work remotely more often, according to Cisco’s global survey of more than 21,500 employers and employees working full-time.

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How House Republicans’ ‘big beautiful’ bill may affect children

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Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., pictured at a press conference after the House narrowly passed a bill forwarding President Donald Trump’s agenda on May 22 in Washington, DC.

Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images

House reconciliation legislation, also known as the One, Big, Beautiful Bill, includes changes aimed at helping to boost family’s finances.

Those proposals — including $1,000 investment “Trump Accounts” for newborns and an enhanced maximum $2,500 child tax credit — would help support eligible parents.

Proposed tax cuts in the bill may also provide up to $13,300 more in take-home pay for the average family with two children, House Republicans estimate.

“What we’re trying to do is help hardworking Americans who are trying to provide for their families and make ends meet,” House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said during a June 8 interview with ABC News’ “This Week.”

Yet the proposed changes, which emphasize work requirements, may reduce aid for children in low-income families when it comes to certain tax credits, health coverage and food assistance.

Households in the lowest decile of the income distribution would lose about $1,600 per year, or about 3.9% of their income, from 2026 through 2034, according to a June 12 letter from the Congressional Budget Office. That loss is mainly due to “reductions in in-kind transfers,” it notes — particularly Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, formerly known as food stamps.

20 million children won’t get full $2,500 child tax credit

A member of MomsRising holds a sign on Capitol Hill to urge lawmakers to reject tax breaks for billionaires and protest cuts to Medicaid and child care on Capitol Hill on May 8 in Washington, D.C.

Brian Stukes | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images

House Republicans have proposed increasing the maximum child tax credit to $2,500 per child, up from $2,000, a change that would go into effect starting with tax year 2025 and expire after 2028.

The change would increase the number of low-income children who are locked out of the child tax credit because their parents’ income is too low, according to Adam Ruben, director of advocacy organization Economic Security Project Action. The tax credit is not refundable, meaning filers can’t claim it if they don’t have a tax obligation.

Today, there are 17 million children who either receive no credit or a partial credit because their family’s income is too low, Ruben said. Under the House Republicans’ plan, that would increase by 3 million children. Consequently, 20 million children would be left out of the full child tax credit because their families earn too little, he said.

“It is raising the credit for wealthier families while excluding those vulnerable families from the credit,” Ruben said. “And that’s not a pro-family policy.”

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A single parent with two children would have to earn at least $40,000 per year to access the full child tax credit under the Republicans’ plan, he said. For families earning the minimum wage, it may be difficult to meet that threshold, according to Ruben.

In contrast, an enhanced child tax credit put in place under President Joe Biden made it fully refundable, which means very low-income families were eligible for the maximum benefit, according to Elaine Maag, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

In 2021, the maximum child tax credit was $3,600 for children under six and $3,000 for children ages 6 to 17. That enhanced credit cut child poverty in half, Maag said. However, immediately following the expiration, child poverty increased, she said.

The current House proposal would also make about 4.5 million children who are citizens ineligible for the child tax credit because they have at least one undocumented parent who files taxes with an individual tax identification number, Ruben said. Those children are currently eligible for the child tax credit based on 2017 tax legislation but would be excluded based on the new proposal, he said.

New red tape for a low-income tax credit

House Republicans also want to change the earned income tax credit, or EITC, which targets low- to middle-income individuals and families, to require precertification to qualify.

When a similar requirement was tried about 20 years ago, it resulted in some eligible families not getting the benefit, Maag said. The new prospective administrative barrier may have the same result, she said.

More than 2 million children’s food assistance at risk

Momo Productions | Digitalvision | Getty Images

House Republican lawmakers’ plan includes almost $300 billion in proposed cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, through 2034.

SNAP currently helps more than 42 million people in low-income families afford groceries, according to Katie Bergh, senior policy analyst at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. Children represent roughly 40% of SNAP participants, she said.

More than 7 million people may see their food assistance either substantially reduced or ended entirely due to the proposed cuts in the House reconciliation bill, estimates CBPP. Notably, that total includes more than 2 million children.

“We’re talking about the deepest cut to food assistance ever, potentially, if this bill becomes law,” Bergh said.

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Under the House proposal, work requirements would apply to households with children for the first time, Bergh said. Parents with children over the age of 6 would be subject to those rules, which limit people to receiving food assistance for just three months in a three-year period unless they work a minimum 20 hours per week.

Additionally, the House plan calls for states to fund 5% to 25% of SNAP food benefits — a departure from the 100% federal funding for those benefits for the first time in the program’s history, Bergh said.

States, which already pay to help administer SNAP, may face tough choices in the face of those higher costs. That may include cutting food assistance or other state benefits or even doing away with SNAP altogether, Bergh said.

While the bill does not directly propose cuts to school meal programs, it does put children’s eligibility for them at risk, according to Bergh. Children who are eligible for SNAP typically automatically qualify for free or reduced school meals. If a family loses SNAP benefits, their children may also miss out on those benefits, Bergh said.

Health coverage losses would adversely impact families

A protestor holds a sign on May 7, 2025 in Washington, D.C.

Leigh Vogel | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images

Families with children may face higher health care costs and reduced access to health care depending on how states react to federal spending cuts proposed by House Republicans, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

The House Republican bill seeks to slash approximately $1 trillion in spending from Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program and Affordable Care Act marketplaces.

Medicaid work requirements may make low-income individuals vulnerable to losing health coverage if they are part of the expansion group and are unable to document they meet the requirements or qualify for an exemption, according to CBPP. Parents and pregnant women, who are on the list of exemptions, could be susceptible to losing coverage without proper documentation, according to the non-partisan research and policy institute.

Eligible children may face barriers to access Medicaid and CHIP coverage if the legislation blocks a rule that simplifies enrollment in those programs, according to CBPP.

In addition, an estimated 4.2 million individuals may be uninsured in 2034 if enhanced premium tax credits that help individuals and families afford health insurance are not extended, according to CBO estimates. Meanwhile, those who are covered by marketplace plans would have to pay higher premiums, according to CBPP. Without the premium tax credits, a family of four with $65,000 in income would pay $2,400 more per year for marketplace coverage.

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