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Looming $2.7 billion Pell Grant shortfall poses threat to college aid

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College advocates breathed a sigh of relief when the U.S. Department of Education said the Trump Administration’s “federal funding freeze” would not affect federal Pell Grants and student loans

Nearly 75% of all undergraduates receive some type of financial aid, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. About 40% of college students rely on Pell Grants, a type of federal aid available to low-income families who demonstrate financial need on the Free Application for Federal Student Aid application.

For these students and their families, this aid is crucial for college access.

However, there’s a problem brewing.

The Congressional Budget Office in January released new supplemental projections for the Pell Grant program, which now estimate a $2.7 billion funding shortfall for the 2025 fiscal year. 

“If program funding is not shored up, students could face eligibility or funding cuts for the first time in more than a decade,” said Michele Zampini, senior director of college affordability at The Institute for College Access & Success. “We are back in the danger zone.”

More students qualify for Pell Grants

The new, simplified FAFSA, which first launched in 2023, was meant to improve access by expanding Pell Grant eligibility to provide more financial support to low- and middle-income families.

But overall, the number of Pell Grant recipients is down significantly.

In fact, the number of Pell Grant recipients peaked over a decade ago, when 9.4 million students were awarded grants in the 2011-12 academic year, and sank 32% to 6.4 million in 2023-24, according to the College Board, which tracks trends in college pricing and student aid.

Now data from the Department of Education shows that many more students are on track to receive Pell Grants this year: As of Dec. 31, more than 9.3 million 2024–25 FAFSA applicants were eligible for a Pell Grant. Among recent high school graduates attending college for the first time, the number of Pell recipients is up 3.3% compared to a year earlier, an increase of approximately 30,000 students.

Why this year is problematic for Pell Grants

Although there have been other times when the Pell Grant program operated with a deficit, this year’s shortfall “was perhaps made worse by the changes to Pell Grant eligibility that increased the number of students eligible for the Pell Grant starting in 2024-25,” said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

Not only do more students now qualify for a Pell Grant because of changes to the financial aid application, but more students are also enrolling in college — a reversal from the significant decline in college-bound students after the pandemic.

Freshmen enrollment jumped 5.5% this fall compared with last year, with the sharpest gains among those from the lowest-income neighborhoods, according to a recent analysis by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. (Because of a “methodological error” in research group’s preliminary enrollment findings, the rebound in freshmen enrollment this year was particularly striking.)

“They really low-balled enrollment projections,” Zampini said. “Program costs are based on how many students are expected to enroll in a given year and how many of those students will be eligible for Pell funding.”

The Congressional Budget Office’s projected change from a surplus to a deficit is due in part to that shift in enrollment figures from a decrease to an increase, according to Kantrowitz. 

How the Pell Grant program is funded

The Pell program functions like other entitlement programs, such as Social Security or Medicare, where every eligible student is entitled to receive a Pell award.

However, unlike those other programs, the Pell program does not rely solely on mandatory funding that is set in the federal budget. Rather, it is also dependent on some discretionary funding, which is appropriated by Congress.

In 2024, the discretionary portion of Pell Grant program was estimated to cost about $24.5 billion, funded with $22.5 billion of appropriations, $1.2 billion of mandatory dollars and less than $1 billion of reserves, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

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Because Congress appropriates discretionary funds for the program based on projections of how much it will cost in the upcoming year, “there is an inevitable annual mismatch between how much the program costs and how much funding is actually available,” Zampini said.

“It becomes a guessing game,” she added.

In previous years, Congress has provided supplemental funding to avoid a shortfall. But if Congress doesn’t fix this problem, “the U.S. Department of Education would be forced to respond by either cutting eligibility or the average grant,” Kantrowitz said.

We are overly reliant on student loans to fund higher education, says NACAC CEO Angel Perez

Already, those grants have not kept up with the rising cost of a four-year degree. Currently, the maximum Pell Grant award is $7,395 — after notching a $500 increase in the 2023-34 academic year.

Meanwhile, tuition and fees plus room and board for a four-year private college averaged $58,600 in the 2024-25 school year, up from $56,390 a year earlier. At four-year, in-state public colleges, it was $24,920, up from $24,080, according to the College Board.

Future deficits could be even greater if the maximum Pell Grant award is adjusted to keep pace with inflation in the years ahead. In one scenario, the Pell Grant program could face a $38 billion cumulative shortfall over the next decade as awards are inflation adjusted, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget also found.

Adding to the complications this year, the Trump administration is reportedly looking for ways to close parts or all of the Department of Education, which is responsible for disbursing college aid.

“I am very concerned about the idea that there would be no Education Department,” Zampini said, but “the Pell program has always been bipartisan given its effectiveness and we are hoping that will continue to be the case.”

Even if the Education Department no longer existed, another government agency would likely administer the task of distributing those funds, other experts say.

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Don’t wait to file your taxes this season, experts say. Here’s why

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Tax identity theft remains a ‘serious problem’

One key reason to file your return early is to avoid tax identity theft, experts say. By filing sooner, you can block thieves from using your Social Security number to file a fraudulent return, Brewer said.  

Tax-related identity theft continues to be a “serious problem,” with many victims facing processing and refund delays, National Taxpayer Advocate Erin Collins wrote in her January report to Congress.   

At the end of fiscal year 2024, the average processing time to resolve identity theft victim assistance cases was more than 22 months, up from 19 months the previous year, Collins reported.

For the 2024 filing season, the IRS confirmed more than 15,600 identity theft returns through Feb. 29, 2024, up from about 12,600 in 2023, according to a Treasury report issued on April 30.  

‘Measure twice, cut once’

Whether you’re filing early because you’re eager for a refund or want to protect yourself from identity theft, you’ll still need a complete and accurate return to avoid delays, experts say.

While many tax forms come in January, others won’t arrive until mid-February to March or longer, according to the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants. 

But once you have the necessary forms, “don’t be in a hurry to press ‘send,'” said Tom O’Saben, an enrolled agent and director of tax content and government relations at the National Association of Tax Professionals. 

You should always double-check key details like your name, Social Security number, banking information and other filing data. When it comes to return accuracy, aim to “measure twice, cut once,” he said.

Tax Tip: Free filing

IRS layoffs could impact service

With thousands of IRS layoffs this week, some experts worry the cuts could impact taxpayer service.

But your refund shouldn’t be affected if you file an accurate return electronically and select direct deposit for payment, O’Saben said.

Typically, you can expect the IRS to process your e-filed return within 21 days. “Corrections or extra review” could take longer, according to the agency.

“Barring a [system] crash, I would expect business as usual,” O’Saben said. “There shouldn’t be an issue meeting the timeline that the IRS lays out.”  

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Federal workers’ money questions answered

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Protesters demonstrate in support of federal workers outside of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services on Feb. 14, 2025 in Washington, DC.

Anna Moneymaker | Getty Images

On Feb. 11, Elizabeth Aniskevich, an attorney at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, received a notice that she was being terminated immediately.

“I was completely shocked,” said Aniskevich, 39. She had been with the CFPB for nine months and imagined spending her entire career in the federal government.

“I didn’t expect it to unfold this way,” she said.

More than a week later, she’s still scrambling for basic answers. “There’s no information about what’s going on with my benefits, or what I need to do with unemployment,” Aniskevich said.

She’s worried about how she’ll pay the mortgage on her Washington, D.C., apartment after her emergency savings runs out in a few months.

“I’ve worked really hard to be financially stable,” Aniskevich said.

Elizabeth Aniskevich.

Courtesy: Elizabeth Aniskevich

Aniskevich is one of thousands of federal workers laid off by the new Trump administration in recent weeks and thrown into financial and career uncertainty. President Donald Trump and Elon Musk‘s secretive government-slashing effort, the Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE, are working to shrink the federal workforce.

Losing one’s job is always difficult. But the suddenness and speed of the firings, which have affected offices from the Environmental Protection Agency to the U.S. Department of Education, have left workers especially in the dark about their rights and next steps, experts said.

“Most people would have selected the public sector because it has a reputation of being a more stable work environment than the private sector,” said Don Moynihan, a public policy professor at the University of Michigan. “But in this case, that stability proved to be an illusion.”

CNBC spoke with financial advisors and policy experts to get answers to some of the many important questions terminated federal workers likely have right now.

Workers may be able to appeal, take legal action

The Trump administration and Musk’s DOGE have largely targeted workers on a probationary status for cuts.

That’s because probationary workers, who have typically been in their position for a year or less, have fewer protections after they’re removed than do career civil servants, said David Eric Lewis, a political science professor at Vanderbilt University.

For example, probationary workers might not meet the requirements to appeal their termination to the U.S. Merit Systems Protection Board. The board reviews cases in which federal workers were laid off or suspended.

Still, there are limited cases when they can appeal, experts said. You should speak to an employment lawyer or your union representative for more details, experts recommend.

The name and logo for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is seen scraped off the door of its building in Washington, D.C., U.S., Feb. 20, 2025.

Brian Snyder | Reuters

“They can also seek legal relief,” Lewis said. Your union may help you file your lawsuit in federal court, he added.

It can be more effective to bring your legal challenge as a group, with other terminated federal workers, Lewis said.

“That’s what is happening,” he said. “There’s a hope that there is at least a stop to these orders.”

A federal judge Thursday denied bid by labor unions to block the mass layoffs across the federal workforce. The National Treasury Employees Union alongside four other groups filed a lawsuit against the firings on Feb. 12.

What to know about unemployment benefits

Federal workers can collect unemployment benefits through the Unemployment Compensation for Federal Employees (UCFE) program. Some government employees — including ex-military personnel discharged under honorable conditions and former members of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration — receive benefits through a separate program, known as the Unemployment Compensation for Ex-servicemembers (UCX).

The jobless benefits, which are supposed to arrive within two or three weeks after you apply for them, are nearly identical to those of private-sector workers, said Michele Evermore, senior fellow at the National Academy of Social Insurance. 

States — as well as U.S. territories and the District of Columbia — administer the payments. Workers must submit an application with the appropriate workforce agency. You should apply in the state or district where your last official duty station was located, Evermore said.

Those working remotely on a full-time basis likely need to file a claim in their state of residence, Evermore said.

Workers should apply for unemployment as soon as possible, experts said. Delays are likely amid the purge of government workers.

Those claiming UCFE benefits will likely need to include certain documents with their claim, including a SF-8, or a Notice to Federal Employee About Unemployment Insurance, as well as a SF-50, or a Notification of Personnel Action, according to the U.S. Labor Department.

Those applying for UCX benefits should have a copy of their service and discharge documents — DD-214 or a similar form, the Labor Department said

Federal employers are supposed to provide these forms to workers upon separation, but Aniskevich said the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau still hadn’t given her those documents as of Friday.

For now, she filed her unemployment application in Washington, D.C., without them.

“It’s stressful to have uncertainty about whether my claim can be processed given the lack of forms,” Aniskevich said.

Federal agencies appear to be citing lackluster performance as rationale for many job cuts in termination letters, experts said. Even so, workers should still apply for benefits, Evermore said. The cause must generally rise to the level of “gross misconduct” to prevent people from receiving aid.

This could delay benefits if the government contests a claim, however, experts said.

Health coverage for terminated workers

Meanwhile Chris, who worked as a transportation program specialist at the Federal Transit Administration, was laid off on February 14. Like Aniskevich, he was a probationary worker, and had been employed by the FTA for around nine months. (He requested to use his first name only, out of fear of retaliation from the Trump administration.)

Despite the financial stability usually associated with a federal job, he found himself with no protections.

“There was no severance pay,” said Chris, 33, who is based in the Los Angeles area.

Chris did learn that his health benefits will continue for 31 calendar days after Valentine’s Day.

Similarly, federal employees should try to determine the specific date their health coverage will end, experts said. While the timelines may vary, most probationary workers will need to find new health insurance soon.

Those who wish to continue with their current health care should look into the federal government’s Temporary Continuation of Coverage, experts say. Under this option, you’re able to extend your federal workplace plan for up to 18 months after termination. (It’s similar to COBRA, or the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act, for private-sector workers.)

Keep in mind that, with TCC, you’ll be responsible for the full cost of your premiums, plus any administrative fees.

“It’s going to be [a] pretty big hike,” said Brennan Rhule, a Reston, Virginia-based certified financial planner who specializes in federal workers.

If the new premium cost is too high to shoulder under TCC, you may qualify for a special enrollment period of the Affordable Care Act marketplace, according to Kate Ende, leader of the policy team at the Consumers for Affordable Health Care, a nonprofit. The special enrollment period typically gives you 60 days to sign up for a marketplace plan after you lost your coverage.

Medicaid might also be an option, Ende said, and if you qualify you can enroll at any time for it.

Relief options for recurring bills

Federal workers concerned about staying current with their bills should reach out to their lenders and explain their situation, consumer advocates said.

For instance, contact your mortgage lender and ask about forbearance or deferment options, said John Breyault, vice president of public policy at the National Consumers League. If you’re a renter, landlords and property managers may offer temporary payment plans or deferments. 

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Some auto lenders allow deferments, too, especially if you have a good payment track record. Meanwhile, your auto insurer may be able to adjust your coverage and lower your costs if you will no longer be driving long distances to work, Breyault said. 

For utilities like electricity, water, gas, internet and phone service, see if your providers offer a grace period or deferred payments, Breyault said. 

Those with student loan bills can request an unemployment deferment with their servicer.

Keep in mind that such concessions and breaks can be helpful in the near-term, but read the terms thoroughly. There could be long-term costs associated, such as interest continuing to accrue or other fees. 

Watch out for ‘undoable’ retirement account missteps

Federal workers who find themselves unexpectedly out of work may be tempted to take money from their retirement plans. However, experts emphasize it is important to know the ins and outs of each plan’s rules to avoid unexpected costs.

“Before you do anything, make sure you talk to somebody who understands and can guide you,” said CFP Mark Keen, who is a federal benefits expert with the National Active and Retired Federal Employees Association.

“Make sure that you don’t make any mistakes that are undoable,” said Keen, who is also a partner at Keen & Pocock.

Federal workers generally have access to a pension through the Federal Employee Retirement System, or FERS, and to a defined contribution savings plan, known as the Thrift Savings Plan, or TSP.

FERS provides a guaranteed income stream once a worker reaches a certain age, a perk that’s mostly unavailable in the private sector, Keen said.

Mass government layoffs: Impact on the labor force and the economy

Federal workers may withdraw their FERS contributions if they leave federal employment, but that may not be the best choice. It will take a while to build your pension back up if you return to federal service, said Katelyn Murray, a chartered federal employee benefits consultant and director of relationship management at Serving Those Who Serve.

If you leave the balance intact, you retain the years of service you’ve accumulated, Murray said. Having a FERS pension also allows retirees to continue health coverage through the Federal Employees Health Benefits, or FEHB, in retirement.

Even if you’re not sure you may return to federal work, you may want to think twice before cashing out, Murray said.

“It’s more about flexibility and keeping your options open,” Murray said.

Federal workers may have some flexibility with a Thrift Savings Plan that is like a 401(k) plan and allows employees to make contributions that are matched by government agencies.

Generally, participants who are at least age 59½ can make withdrawals without penalties.

In some cases, workers may qualify for the Rule of 55, which may allow them to take withdrawals from the TSP without having to pay a 10% early withdrawal penalty, provided they are at least age 55 when they leave their job (or age 50 for some public safety employees).

If you haven’t found another job yet, you can’t take a TSP loan, but you may be able to look at doing a hardship withdrawal, Murray said. Importantly, by doing so you may incur taxes and/or penalties, as well as delay your anticipated retirement date.

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How IRS layoffs could impact tax filings and refunds this season

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Vithun Khamsong | Moment | Getty Images

Thousands of IRS employees are expected to lose their jobs as Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, continues widespread cuts to federal spending

The move comes roughly three weeks since the opening of tax season and could impact millions of taxpayers who will file before the April 15 deadline, experts say.

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IRS funding has been targeted by Republican lawmakers since former President Joe Biden approved $80 billion for the agency via the Inflation Reduction Act, or IRA, in 2022.

The IRS layoffs have targeted probationary workers with less than one year of service — or longer in some cases. There were an estimated 15,000 probationary employees at the agency, many who were hired via IRA funds, according to a lawsuit filed by the National Treasury Employees Union and others on Feb. 12.

An estimated 6,000 to 7,000 IRS workers may be impacted, according to reporting from CBS News and the Associated Press.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury didn’t respond to CNBC’s request to confirm these numbers.

These mid-season staffing cuts could significantly impact filers, experts warn. So, with major IRS changes underway, here are some key things to know.

‘You may not notice a change’

Senate Finance Committee Democrats on Tuesday warned that IRS staffing cuts would cause a “tax refund train wreck.” Tax experts, however, say filing an accurate, electronic return should avoid any such issues. 

“If you have a good submission, you may not notice any change,” said Tom O’Saben, an enrolled agent and director of tax content and government relations at the National Association of Tax Professionals.

Typically, it takes 21 days for the IRS to process an e-filed tax return. But that timeline could be longer for “corrections or extra review,” according to the agency.

Reduced staffing could make processing longer if there’s an issue with your return, experts say.

The IRS system could flag your return for incorrect personal details or missing information, which could require contact with the agency for assistance, O’Saben said.

“We haven’t seen any service delays yet,” he said. “But we’re going to. It’s just going to be a reality with less people.”   

File soon if you’re expecting a refund

If you expect a tax refund and have all the correct forms, “get that return in as quickly as possible,” said San Diego-based tax attorney Adam Brewer.

“Even if the staffing cuts don’t impact process, there’s the potential for a government shutdown next month” as lawmakers debate spending negotiations, he said. “That will compound problems.”

Error-free, electronically filed returns may not be impacted by a government shutdown. But there could be further delays if there’s an issue with your filing, experts say.

Typically, the best way to speed up your refund is by filing electronically and choosing direct deposit for your payment, according to the IRS.

You can check the status of your refund via the agency’s “Where’s My Refund?” tool or the IRS2Go app.

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