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Business leaders see risks in economy, cyber threats and talent

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The economy is the No. 1 risk cited by a group of business leaders, according to a new survey from Protiviti and North Carolina State University’s ERM Initiative.

When asked about the most pressing business risks over the next two to three years, as well as a decade later, the 1,215 board members and C-suite executives who responded to the survey believe economic  uncertainty and volatility will persist as leaders grapple with inflation, tariffs,  geopolitical upheaval, growth in AI and other emerging technologies, and upcoming policy  changes from new administrations globally.

“It’s really difficult to silo these risks,” said Joe Kornik, senior director of editorial programs at Protiviti, during a panel discussion. “As business becomes more interconnected, the risks themselves also become more interconnected. The pace of change continues to accelerate, and one of the notable changes from previous years of the survey is that business leaders are feeling more battle tested, a little more resilient and a little bit more confident in their ability to operate amid uncertainty and volatility. It’s certainly a skill set that I think will bode well for those business leaders, certainly in 2025 and I suspect, well into the future, as long as those business organizations stay resilient to change and to uncertainty.”

The top 10 global risks over the next two to three years: 

1. Economic conditions, including inflationary pressures;  
2. Cyber threats ;
3. Ability to attract, develop and retain top talent, manage shifts in labor expectations, and  address succession challenges;  
4. Talent and labor availability;  

5. Increases in labor costs;
6. Heightened regulatory change, uncertainty and scrutiny;  
7. Third-party risks;
8. Rapid speed of disruptive innovations enabled by new and emerging technologies  and/or other market forces;
9. Adoption of AI and other emerging technologies requiring new skills in short supply;
10. Emergence of new risks from implementing artificial intelligence.

This is the 13th annual survey for Protiviti and North Carolina State. “We do a lot of sub-analysis on this report, and particularly dive deeper into differences in perspective by position,” said Dr. Mark Beasley, professor of enterprise risk management, director of North Carolina State University’s ERM Initiative and co-author of the report. “What are board members thinking versus a CEO versus a CFO?”

Boards and C-suite leaders ranked cyber threats as the second most concerning risk over the next two to three years, outranked only by the economy. Cyber threats also represent the most cited long-term operational risk for executives, with 31% selecting it among their two most  concerning operational risk issues for the next decade.

“We’ve come out of a period of tremendous change and volatility,” said Julia Coronado, president and founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives. “The pandemic presented challenges to businesses and to macroeconomic policy makers that we hadn’t even imagined before. Then we recovered from that, and now we have a shift in policy from a change in administration that’s presenting a whole new set of crosscurrents and potential changes.”

The study asked respondents to rank their top two risks a decade out across three risk  categories:  

Macroeconomic risk outlook:  

1. Economic conditions, including inflationary pressures; 
2. Talent and labor availability.

Strategic risk outlook: 

1. Heightened regulatory change, uncertainty and scrutiny; 
2. Rapid speed of disruptive innovations enabled by new and emerging  technologies and/or other market forces.

Operational risk outlook: 

1. Cyber threats;
2. Ability to attract, develop and retain top talent, manage shifts in labor  expectations, and address succession challenges.

“It’s pretty common practice for organizations to subject themselves to stress tests on their operations, their financials, and they typically do that by running multiple scenarios and introducing a discrete set of shocks,” said Matt Moore, global leader of risk and compliance at Protiviti. “I was speaking with a client recently who said, for all the planning that we did and stress testing in even our most adverse scenarios, we never contemplated what we’re considering: the shock and awe scenario of everything hitting all at once from all different directions, and there being such uncertainty around what will stick and what will go.”

Protiviti plans to host a webinar on Tuesday, Feb. 25 at 1 p.m. ET, where panelists will share takeaways from the survey on the interconnected nature of emerging risks and their strategic  implications.

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Accounting

IAASB tweaks standards on working with outside experts

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The International Auditing and Assurance Standards Board is proposing to tailor some of its standards to align with recent additions to the International Ethics Standards Board for Accountants’ International Code of Ethics for Professional Accountants when it comes to using the work of an external expert.

The proposed narrow-scope amendments involve minor changes to several IAASB standards:

  • ISA 620, Using the Work of an Auditor’s Expert;
  • ISRE 2400 (Revised), Engagements to Review Historical Financial Statements;
  • ISAE 3000 (Revised), Assurance Engagements Other than Audits or Reviews of Historical Financial Information;
  • ISRS 4400 (Revised), Agreed-upon Procedures Engagements.

The IAASB is asking for comments via a digital response template that can be found on the IAASB website by July 24, 2025.

In December 2023, the IESBA approved an exposure draft for proposed revisions to the IESBA’s Code of Ethics related to using the work of an external expert. The proposals included three new sections to the Code of Ethics, including provisions for professional accountants in public practice; professional accountants in business and sustainability assurance practitioners. The IESBA approved the provisions on using the work of an external expert at its December 2024 meeting, establishing an ethical framework to guide accountants and sustainability assurance practitioners in evaluating whether an external expert has the necessary competence, capabilities and objectivity to use their work, as well as provisions on applying the Ethics Code’s conceptual framework when using the work of an outside expert.  

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Accounting

Tariffs will hit low-income Americans harder than richest, report says

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President Donald Trump’s tariffs would effectively cause a tax increase for low-income families that is more than three times higher than what wealthier Americans would pay, according to an analysis from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy.

The report from the progressive think tank outlined the outcomes for Americans of all backgrounds if the tariffs currently in effect remain in place next year. Those making $28,600 or less would have to spend 6.2% more of their income due to higher prices, while the richest Americans with income of at least $914,900 are expected to spend 1.7% more. Middle-income families making between $55,100 and $94,100 would pay 5% more of their earnings. 

Trump has imposed the steepest U.S. duties in more than a century, including a 145% tariff on many products from China, a 25% rate on most imports from Canada and Mexico, duties on some sectors such as steel and aluminum and a baseline 10% tariff on the rest of the country’s trading partners. He suspended higher, customized tariffs on most countries for 90 days.

Economists have warned that costs from tariff increases would ultimately be passed on to U.S. consumers. And while prices will rise for everyone, lower-income families are expected to lose a larger portion of their budgets because they tend to spend more of their earnings on goods, including food and other necessities, compared to wealthier individuals.

Food prices could rise by 2.6% in the short run due to tariffs, according to an estimate from the Yale Budget Lab. Among all goods impacted, consumers are expected to face the steepest price hikes for clothing at 64%, the report showed. 

The Yale Budget Lab projected that the tariffs would result in a loss of $4,700 a year on average for American households.

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Accounting

At Schellman, AI reshapes a firm’s staffing needs

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Artificial intelligence is just getting started in the accounting world, but it is already helping firms like technology specialist Schellman do more things with fewer people, allowing the firm to scale back hiring and reduce headcount in certain areas through natural attrition. 

Schellman CEO Avani Desai said there have definitely been some shifts in headcount at the Top 100 Firm, though she stressed it was nothing dramatic, as it mostly reflects natural attrition combined with being more selective with hiring. She said the firm has already made an internal decision to not reduce headcount in force, as that just indicates they didn’t hire properly the first time. 

“It hasn’t been about reducing roles but evolving how we do work, so there wasn’t one specific date where we ‘started’ the reduction. It’s been more case by case. We’ve held back on refilling certain roles when we saw opportunities to streamline, especially with the use of new technologies like AI,” she said. 

One area where the firm has found such opportunities has been in the testing of certain cybersecurity controls, particularly within the SOC framework. The firm examined all the controls it tests on the service side and asked which ones require human judgment or deep expertise. The answer was a lot of them. But for the ones that don’t, AI algorithms have been able to significantly lighten the load. 

“[If] we don’t refill a role, it’s because the need actually has changed, or the process has improved so significantly [that] the workload is lighter or shared across the smarter system. So that’s what’s happening,” said Desai. 

Outside of client services like SOC control testing and reporting, the firm has found efficiencies in administrative functions as well as certain internal operational processes. On the latter point, Desai noted that Schellman’s engineers, including the chief information officer, have been using AI to help develop code, which means they’re not relying as much on outside expertise on the internal service delivery side of things. There are still people in the development process, but their roles are changing: They’re writing less code, and doing more reviewing of code before it gets pushed into production, saving time and creating efficiencies. 

“The best way for me to say this is, to us, this has been intentional. We paused hiring in a few areas where we saw overlaps, where technology was really working,” said Desai.

However, even in an age awash with AI, Schellman acknowledges there are certain jobs that need a human, at least for now. For example, the firm does assessments for the FedRAMP program, which is needed for cloud service providers to contract with certain government agencies. These assessments, even in the most stable of times, can be long and complex engagements, to say nothing of the less predictable nature of the current government. As such, it does not make as much sense to reduce human staff in this area. 

“The way it is right now for us to do FedRAMP engagements, it’s a very manual process. There’s a lot of back and forth between us and a third party, the government, and we don’t see a lot of overall application or technology help… We’re in the federal space and you can imagine, [with] what’s going on right now, there’s a big changing market condition for clients and their pricing pressure,” said Desai. 

As Schellman reduces staff levels in some places, it is increasing them in others. Desai said the firm is actively hiring in certain areas. In particular, it’s adding staff in technical cybersecurity (e.g., penetration testers), the aforementioned FedRAMP engagements, AI assessment (in line with recently becoming an ISO 42001 certification body) and in some client-facing roles like marketing and sales. 

“So, to me, this isn’t about doing more with less … It’s about doing more of the right things with the right people,” said Desai. 

While these moves have resulted in savings, she said that was never really the point, so whatever the firm has saved from staffing efficiencies it has reinvested in its tech stack to build its service line further. When asked for an example, she said the firm would like to focus more on penetration testing by building a SaaS tool for it. While Schellman has a proof of concept developed, she noted it would take a lot of money and time to deploy a full solution — both of which the firm now has more of because of its efficiency moves. 

“What is the ‘why’ behind these decisions? The ‘why’ for us isn’t what I think you traditionally see, which is ‘We need to get profitability high. We need to have less people do more things.’ That’s not what it is like,” said Desai. “I want to be able to focus on quality. And the only way I think I can focus on quality is if my people are not focusing on things that don’t matter … I feel like I’m in a much better place because the smart people that I’ve hired are working on the riskiest and most complicated things.”

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