Finance
January inflation gives Fed more reason to hold on interest rate cuts
Egg prices soared by more than 15% in January. (iStock)
Annual inflation increased to 3% in January, rising above expectations and giving the Federal Reserve further reason to slow down interest rate cuts.
Inflation increased 0.5% monthly, slightly exceeding expectations and above the previous month’s increase of 0.4%, according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.4% in January, coming in at the same level as December’s increase. This brought the year-over-year rate to 3.3%.
Shelter costs rose 0.4% and were the most significant contributor to the monthly increase in January, accounting for nearly 30% of the monthly increase in all items. Gas was up 1.8% over the month. Food prices continued to rise, increasing 0.4% last month. The food at home index rose 0.5%, driven primarily by the soaring costs of eggs, which increased 15.2% in January.
“The unexpected acceleration in inflation marks the third consecutive monthly uptick in the consumer price index and extends a reflationary trend since two consecutive flat months for the index in May and June 2024,” Jim Baird, Plante Moran Financial Advisors’ chief investment officer, said in a statement. “Against a backdrop of solid demand, inflation has accelerated. It’s a reality that may spook consumers who remember the Covid-19 era price spike all too well.
“It will also make President Trump’s proposed import tariffs a tougher sell than was the case during his first term, when both inflation and interest rates were exceptionally low,” Baird continued.
If you are struggling with high inflation, you could consider taking out a personal loan to pay down debt at a lower interest rate, reducing your monthly payments. Visit Credible to find your personalized interest rate without affecting your credit score.
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The Fed pauses on further rate cuts
The increase in inflation, combined with a stable jobs market and economic growth, has given the Federal Reserve more room to work.
The Federal Reserve held interest rates at 4.5% to 4.75% in January, prompted by strong economic indicators that gave the central bank more room to wait. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that the central bank intend to remain cautious about additional rate cuts so long as the job market remains solid and prices continue to climb.
“The murkiness of evolving trade policy creates a significant unknown for Fed policymakers who will have to grapple with the potential conflicting policy challenges of slower real growth and higher inflation,” Baird said. “While even bearish forecasts are a far cry from the stagflationary environment of the 1970s, the playbook would seemingly still apply.
“Arresting inflation is likely to remain the priority for the Fed, even at the expense of near-term growth,” Baird said. “The fear of inflation expectations becoming unanchored is just too much for policymakers to ignore.”
You can take out a personal loan before future rate hikes to help pay down high-interest debt. Visit Credible to find your personal loan rate without affecting your credit score.
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How higher for longer impacts your wallet
All signs point to the Fed holding interest rates higher for longer, which means consumers will continue to be impacted by stubbornly elevated interest rates impacting a range of credit products, including credit cards, mortgages, unsecured personal loans and auto loans, according to Charlie Wise, TransUnion’s senior vice president of research and consulting.
“Consumers should avoid building and carrying large credit card balances, particularly in light of very high interest rates on this type of debt, and whenever possible pay more than the monthly minimums due on their cards,” Wise said in a statement.
Additionally, Wise advised that consumers keep a close watch on their credit profiles and keep them in the best shape possible so that when rates finally drop to a more manageable level, they are ready to refinance their existing debts into more affordable loans.
Using a personal loan to pay off high-interest debt at a lower rate could help you reduce your expenses and put money back in your wallet. You can visit Credible to find your personalized interest rate today.
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Have a finance-related question, but don’t know who to ask? Email The Credible Money Expert at [email protected] and your question might be answered by Credible in our Money Expert column.
Walmart stock may be a steal.
Former Walmart U.S. CEO Bill Simon contends the retailer’s stock sell-off tied to a slowing profit growth forecast and tariff fears is creating a major opportunity for investors.
“I absolutely thought their guidance was pretty strong given the fact that… nobody knows what’s going to happen with tariffs,” he told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Thursday, the day Walmart reported fiscal fourth-quarter results.
But even if U.S. tariffs against Canada and Mexico move forward, Simon predicts “nothing” should happen to Walmart.
“Ultimately, the consumer decides whether there’s a tariff or not,” said Simon. “There’s a tariff on avocados from Mexico. Do you have guacamole with your chips or do you have salsa and queso where there is no tariff?”
Plus, Simon, who’s now on the Darden Restaurants board and is the chairman at Hanesbrands, sees Walmart as a nimble retailer.
“The big guys, Walmart, Costco, Target, Amazon… have the supply and the sourcing capability to mitigate tariffs by redirecting the product – bringing it in from different places [and] developing their own private labels,” said Simon. “Those guys will figure out tariffs.”
Walmart shares just saw their worst weekly performance since May 2022 — tumbling almost 9%. The stock price fell more than 6% on its earnings day alone. It was the stock’s worst daily performance since November 2023.
Simon thinks the sell-off is bizarre.
“I thought if you hit your numbers and did well and beat your earnings, things would usually go well for you in the market. But little do we know. You got to have some magic dust,” he said. “I don’t know how you could have done much better for the quarter.”
It’s a departure from his stance last May on “Fast Money” when he warned affluent consumers were creating a “bubble” at Walmart. It came with Walmart shares hitting record highs. He noted historical trends pointed to an eventual shift back to service from convenience and price.
But now Simon thinks the economic and geopolitical backdrop is so unprecedented, higher-income consumers may shop at Walmart permanently.
“If you liked that story yesterday before the earnings release, you should love it today because it’s… cheaper,” said Simon.
Walmart stock is now down 10% from its all-time high hit on Feb. 14. However, it’s still up about 64% over the past 52 weeks.
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Investors may want to reduce their exposure to the world’s largest emerging market.
Perth Tolle, who’s the founder of Life + Liberty Indexes, warns China’s capitalism model is unsustainable.
“I think the thinking used to be that their capitalism would lead to democracy,” she told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “Economic freedom is a necessary, but not sufficient precondition for personal freedom.”
She runs the Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF — which is up more than 43% since its first day of trading on May 23, 2019. So far this year, Tolle’s ETF is up 9%, while the iShares China Large-Cap ETF, which tracks the country’s biggest stocks, is up 19%.
The fund has never invested in China, according to Tolle.
Tolle spent part of her childhood in Beijing. When she started at Fidelity Investments as a private wealth advisor in 2004, Tolle noted all of her clients wanted exposure to China’s market.
“I didn’t want to personally be investing in China at that point, but everyone else did,” she said. “Then, I had clients from Russia who said, ‘I don’t want to invest in Russia because it’s like funding terrorism.’ And, look how prescient that is today. So, my own experience and those of some of my clients led me to this idea in the end.”
She prefers emerging economies that prioritize freedom.
“Without that, the economy is going to be constrained,” she added.
ETF investor Tom Lydon, who is the former VettaFi head, also sees China as a risky investment.
“If you look at emerging markets… by not being in China from a performance standpoint, it’s provided less volatility and better performance,” Lydon said.
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