Personal Finance

Why benefit increases from Social Security Fairness Act may take time

Published

2 months ago

February 13, 2025

Cavan Images | Cavan | Getty Images

More than 3.2 million individuals scored a legislative victory due to a new law that will increase the Social Security benefits for which they are eligible.

However, many of those individuals now face a lengthy wait for the extra benefit money coming to them.

The Social Security Fairness Act was signed into law on Jan. 5 by then President Joe Biden. The law eliminates certain provisions — the Windfall Elimination Provision and the Government Pension Offset — that previously reduced Social Security benefits for people who receive pensions from non-covered employment.

The changes will result in higher monthly payments ranging from $360 to $1,190, depending on their circumstances, the Congressional Budget Office has estimated. In addition, the law also provides lump-sum payments for those benefit increases dating back to benefits payable for January 2024 and after.

The Social Security Administration is already helping some affected beneficiaries, the agency stated on its website. However, it cannot commit to a timeline as to when it will have processed the benefit increases for everyone affected.

“Under SSA’s current budget, SSA expects that it could take more than one year to adjust benefits and pay all retroactive benefits,” the Social Security Administration’s website states.

SSA will struggle without more money, expert says

On Feb. 5, a bipartisan group of Senators sent a letter to Acting Social Security Commissioner Michelle King urging for swift implementation of the benefit changes affecting certain teachers, police officers, firefighters and other public servants.

“We call for the immediate implementation of this legislation to provide prompt relief to the millions of Americans impacted by WEP and GPO,” the Senators wrote.

However, some experts say the agency needs more financial resources to make that happen.

“Congress either provides funding to cover the implementation costs, or SSA is going to struggle to work these cases,” said David A. Weaver, a former Social Security Administration executive who currently teaches statistics at the University of South Carolina.

The Social Security Fairness Act was voted into law with broad bipartisan support in both the House and Senate. Yet retirement policy experts have strongly criticized the new policy. One sticking point is the cost — estimated by the CBO to tally $200 billion over 10 years — with no offsets to help pay that increase.

That outlay will move Social Security’s trust fund depletion date six months closer, according to estimates.

Fiserv CEO on the nomination to Social Security Commisioner role

The Social Security Administration is funded through a continuing resolution set to expire in the middle of March.

“When Congress addresses that … it’d be useful for Congress to increase SSA’s budget to account for the implementation costs,” Weaver said.

At a minimum, the agency will need around $200 million to implement the Social Security Fairness Act’s changes, he said.

The last time there was a similar change was with the Senior Citizens Freedom to Work Act of 2000, in which Social Security beneficiaries who had reached full retirement age no longer saw benefit reductions due to earned income.

That law affected about 1 million beneficiaries and cost about $65 million to implement in today’s dollars, according to Weaver. The new Social Security Fairness Act will affect about three times as many beneficiaries, he said.

The Social Security Administration’s staffing is currently at a 50-year low, said Dan Adcock, director of government relations and policy at the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare.

Prior to President Donald Trump taking office, it had been suggested that additional funding would help the Social Security Administration to fulfill the demands of the WEP and GPO repeal.

If instead the appropriations from Congress to the agency are reduced, the implementation of the new law may take even longer than one year, Adcock said.

Why new law may be complex to implement

As the Social Security Administration works to implement the law’s new benefit changes, the agency will face some pain points that may contribute to delays, according to Weaver.

When the Social Security Fairness Act was first introduced in 2023, the bill called for the changes to go into effect starting with benefits payable for January 2024.

As lawmakers rushed the legislation through in late December, that effective date was not changed. Calculating those back payments will create more work for the Social Security Administration, according to Weaver.

The effective date also presents other potential complications. For example, in any given year, 4% of Social Security beneficiaries die. Consequently, the Social Security Administration will be tasked with identifying more than 100,000 beneficiaries who are affected by the law who may have died in 2024 and distributing money to their survivors, Weaver said.

Moreover, individuals who were affected by the Government Pension Offset, which reduced Social Security benefits for spouses and widows of people who received non-covered pensions, may have previously been told they were not eligible for benefits, Weaver explained. As a result, in some cases they may have never applied for benefits. For those who did apply, their personal addresses or bank account information on file with the agency may be outdated, he added.

For those individuals affected by the GPO, the Social Security Administration will likely have to do a lot of work to find basic information on how to pay them, Weaver said.

For survivors and spouses who are newly eligible for benefits, the agency will also have to confirm those relationships.

The Social Security Administration may be able to automate 95% of the Windfall Elimination Provision cases, Weaver said. Yet some unusual cases may crop up, for example if a beneficiary was also affected by the earnings test. That will require manual input from Social Security employees, and therefore more time to process, Weaver said.

Personal Finance

As recession risk jumps, top financial pros share their best advice

Published

3 minutes ago

April 4, 2025

Business Finance News

Fg Trade | E+ | Getty Images

There is at least a 60% chance of recession if Trump's tariffs stick, says JPMorgan's David Kelly

Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan raised its odds for a U.S. and global recession to 60%, by year end, up from 40% previously.

“Disruptive U.S. policies has been recognized as the biggest risk to the global outlook all year,” J.P. Morgan strategists said in a research note on Thursday.

Allianz’s Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian also warned on Friday that the risk of a U.S. recession “has become uncomfortably high.”

‘There is some nervous energy’

“There is some nervous energy there,” said certified financial planner Douglas Boneparth, president of Bone Fide Wealth in New York, of the conversations he is having with his clients.

Even though stocks took a beating on Friday, “we advise them to focus on fundamentals and what they can control, which means maintaining a strong cash reserve and discipline around cash flow so that they can stay in the market and feel confident about taking advantage of buying opportunities,” said Boneparth, a member of the CNBC Financial Advisor Council.

Recession or not, maintaining a consistent cash flow and investment strategy is key, other experts say.

“The best way to manage these moments is to maximize your current and future selves is to block out noise that doesn’t apply to your plan,” said CFP Preston Cherry, founder and president of Concurrent Financial Planning in Green Bay, Wisconsin.

Letting emotions get in the way is one of “the greatest threats to life and money plans,” said Cherry, who is also a member of the CNBC Advisor Council.

When it comes to volatility tolerance, sharp drops in the market are to be expected, the advisors say.

“The stock market is unpredictable, but historically, there’s a trend in how the market recovers,” Cherry said.

“In years with market corrections and pullbacks, these are the worst days, which are followed by the best days,” he added.

In fact, the 10 best trading days by percentage gain for the S&P 500 over the past three decades all occurred during recessions, often in close proximity to the worst days, according to a Wells Fargo analysis published last year.

“Being out of the market and missing the best days and cycles after recessions significantly hurt portfolios in the long run,” Cherry said.

Boneparth said his clients also “know volatility and uncertainty is part of the game and, most importantly, know not to sell into chaos.”

Subscribe to CNBC on YouTube.

Personal Finance

Amid tariff sell-off, avoid ‘dangerous’ investment instincts, experts say

Published

33 minutes ago

April 4, 2025

Business Finance News

Jamie Grill | Getty Images

As U.S. markets continue to suffer steep declines in the wake of the Trump administration’s new tariff policies, you may be wondering what the next best move is when it comes to your retirement portfolio and other investments.

Behavioral finance experts warn now is the worst time to make any drastic moves.

“It is dangerous for you — unless you can read what is going to happen next in the political world, in the economic world — to make a decision,” said Meir Statman, a professor of finance at Santa Clara University.

“It is more likely to be driven by emotion and, in this case, emotion that is going to act against you rather than for you,” said Statman, who is author of the book, “A Wealth of Well-Being: A Holistic Approach to Behavioral Finance.”

That may sound easier said than done when headlines show stocks are sliding into bear market territory while J.P. Morgan is raising the chances of a recession this year to 60% from 40%.

“When the market drops, we have sort of a herd instinct,” said Bradley Klontz, a psychologist, certified financial planner and managing principal of YMW Advisors in Boulder, Colorado. Klontz is also a member of the CNBC FA Council.

That survival instinct to run towards safety and away from danger dates back to humans’ hunter gatherer days, Klontz said. Back then, following those cues was necessary for survival.

But when it comes to investing, those impulses can backfire, he said.

“It’s an internal panic, and we’re just sort of wired to sell at the absolute worst times,” Klontz said.

‘Never trust your instincts when it comes to investing’

When conditions are stressful, our frame of reference narrows to today, tomorrow and what’s going to happen, Klontz said.

It may be tempting to come up with a story for why taking action now makes sense, Klontz said.

“Never trust your instincts when it comes to investing,” said Klontz, particularly when you’re excited or scared.

Why investors should hold despite market sell-off

Meanwhile, many investors are likely in a fight or flight response mode now, said Danielle Labotka, behavioral scientist at Morningstar.

“The problem with that, in acting right away, is that we’re going to be relying on what we call fast thinking,” Labotka said.

Instead, investors would be wise to slow down, she said.

Just as grief requires moving through emotional stages in order to eventually feel good, it’s impossible to jump to a good investing decision, Labotka said.

Good investment decisions take time, she said.

What should be guiding your decisions now

Many investors have experienced market drops before, whether it be during the Covid pandemic, the financial crisis of 2008 or the dot-com bust.

Even though we’ve experienced volatility before, it feels different every time, Labotka said.

That can make it difficult to heed to the advice to stay the course, she said.

Investors would be wise to ask themselves whether their reasons for investing and the goals they’re trying to achieve have changed, experts say.

“Even though the markets have changed, why you’re invested, your values and your goals probably haven’t,” Labotka said. “These are the things that should be guiding your investments.”

While there is the notion that life well-being is based on financial well-being, it helps to take a broader view, Statman said.

At any moment, no one has everything perfect when it comes to their finances, family and health. In life, as in an investment portfolio, all stocks don’t necessarily go up, and it’s helpful to learn to live with the good and the bad, he said.

“Things are never perfect for anyone,” Statman said.

Personal Finance

20 items and goods most exposed to price shocks

Published

1 hour ago

April 4, 2025

Business Finance News

Employees at a clothing factory in Vo Cuong, Bac Ninh province, in Vietnam.

SeongJoon Cho/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Trump administration’s plan to slap steep tariffs on goods from dozens of countries is expected to spike prices for consumers. Some items, like leather goods, will see a bigger jump than others.

The overall impact on households will vary based on their purchasing habits. But most families — especially lower earners — are likely to feel the pain to some degree, economists said.

According to an analysis by the Budget Lab at Yale University, the average household will lose $3,800 of purchasing power per year as a result of all President Donald Trump‘s tariff policies — and retaliatory trade actions by other nations — announced as of Wednesday.

That’s a “meaningful amount,” said Ernie Tedeschi, the lab’s director of economics and former chief economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisers during the Biden administration.

The analysis doesn’t include the 34% retaliatory tariff China announced Friday on all U.S. exports, set to take effect April 10. The U.S. exported nearly $144 billion worth of goods to China in 2024, the third-largest market for U.S. goods behind Canada and Mexico, according to the Census Bureau.

Clothing prices poised to spike

The garment industry is among the most susceptible to tariff-related price shocks.

Prices for clothing and shoes, gloves and handbags, and wool and silk products will all increase by between 10% and 20% due to the tariffs Trump has so far imposed, according to the Yale Budget Lab analysis. Tedeschi noted that some of these price increases could take 5 years or more to unfold.

Srdjanpav | E+ | Getty Images

The bulk of apparel and shoes sold in the U.S. is manufactured in China, Vietnam, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, said Denise Green, an associate professor at Cornell University and director of the Cornell Fashion + Textile Collection.

Under the “reciprocal tariffs” Trump announced Wednesday, Chinese imports will face a 34% duty. Goods from Vietnam, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh face tariffs of 46%, 44% and 37%, respectively.

Taking into account the pre-existing tariffs on China totaling 20%, Beijing now faces an effective tariff rate of at least 54%.

“The tariffs are disastrous for the apparel industry worldwide, but especially for smaller countries with highly specialized garment manufacturing,” Green said.

A lot of clothing production has moved overseas over the last 50 years, Tedeschi said, but it’s “very unlikely” clothing and textile manufacturing will return to the U.S. from Asia in the wake of the new tariffs.

“People will still import clothing to a large extent, and they’ll have to eat the price increase,” he said.

Car prices are another pain point

Various Mercedes-Benz vehicles assembled in the “Factory 56” production hall.

Picture Alliance | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

The duties announced Wednesday are on top of other tariffs Trump has imposed since his second inauguration, including duties on automobiles and car parts; copper, steel and aluminum; and certain imports from Canada and Mexico.

The cost of motor vehicles and car parts could swell by over 8% according to the Yale Budget Lab analysis.

Bank of America estimated that new vehicle prices could increase as much as $10,000 if automakers pass the full impact of tariffs on to consumers.

“Rising car prices are already a major pain point for the vast majority of Americans who live in an area where they need a car to get to work, school, their kids’ activities, and medical appointments,” said Erin Witte, director of consumer protection for the Consumer Federation of America.

“These tariffs will make it much worse, and will significantly reduce Americans’ choices about what car they want to buy,” she said.

Tariffs on specific commodities like aluminum and steel affect consumers indirectly, since the materials are used to manufacture a swath of consumer goods.

White House spokesman Kush Desai pushed back on analyses that prices will spike because of Trump’s tariff policy.

“Chicken Little ‘expert’ predictions didn’t quite pan out during President Trump’s first term, and they’re not going to pan out during his second term when President Trump again restores American Greatness from Main Street to Wall Street,” Desai said in an e-mailed statement.

Trump’s second-term tariffs are orders of magnitude larger than his first term, however.

The first Trump administration put tariffs on about $380 billion worth of goods in 2018 and 2019, according to the Tax Foundation. The tariffs so far imposed in Trump’s second term affect more than $2.5 trillion of U.S. imports, it said.

There’s also evidence that the first-term tariffs raised prices for some consumers.

Retail prices for the typical washing machine and clothing dryer rose by about 12% each — about $86 and $92 per unit, respectively — due to 2018 tariffs on imports of washing machines, according to a study by economists at the Federal Reserve Board and University of Chicago. The increased cost to consumers totaled $1.5 billion a year, the study found.

Tariffs are expected to raise the U.S. inflation rate

Economists also expect the overall U.S. inflation rate to jump due to tariffs.

American businesses that import goods from abroad will be the ones on the hook for paying the cost of tariffs, and economists anticipate that companies will pass at least some of those costs on to consumers.

The tariffs are disastrous for the apparel industry worldwide, but especially for smaller countries with highly specialized garment manufacturing.

Denise Green

director of the Cornell Fashion + Textile Collection

An environment of rising prices for foreign goods may give U.S. businesses cover to somewhat raise their prices, too.

As a result, the consumer price index could jump to 4.5% later in 2025, Capital Economics estimated Thursday. That’s up from 2.8% in February, and roughly double the Federal Reserve’s long-term inflation target.