Finance
Investors are thinking about Social Security income the wrong way
Based on a lot of the recent dire headlines, many Americans may have come to think of Social Security as an asset that is going to disappear from their financial future rather than be part of it, but it may be a bigger factor in portfolio success than it gets credit for, according to investing legend Charles Ellis.
The steady stream of income provided by Social Security can influence asset allocation decisions that improve overall performance, says Ellis, who has written many books on investing and helped to pioneer the index fund space.
“We don’t talk about it. We don’t measure it. We don’t quantify it. But it’s a substantial asset,” Ellis told CNBC’s Bob Pisani on “ETF Edge” this week.
He argues Social Security functions similarly to an inflation-protected bond. Yet, it is rarely factored into investor asset allocation plans.
Overlooking Social Security can be a big mistake, said Ellis, whose books on finance include “Winning the Loser’s Game,” and whose new book is “Rethinking Investing – A Very Short Guide to Very Long-Term Investing.”
“Be very surprised if you don’t have something on the order of $250[000] to $350,000 coming your way through the Social Security program,” Ellis said on “ETF Edge.”
Failing to recognize this can lead to overly cautious investing, he added.
The S&P 500 has averaged around 12% annual returns since 1928, according to New York University Stern. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury has returned just about 5% over the same time period.
Ellis says Social Security’s steady income stream allows for greater stock exposure.
“Almost anybody looking at the reason for holding bonds talks about the desire to reduce the fluctuations,” he said.
He gave the example of an inheritance that an adult child expects as a parallel thought experiment. “If you have wealthy parents that are going to give you an inheritance in the future, any of those things that you really know are valued, why not include them in your thinking so that you won’t overweight yourself in fixed income?”
“Why not include [Social Security] in your thinking?” Ellis said.
The uranium trade’s shelf life may last years.
According to Sprott Asset Management CEO John Ciampaglia, a “real shift” upward is underway due to increasing global energy demand — particularly as major tech companies look to power artificial intelligence data centers.
“We’ve been talking about uranium and nuclear energy non-stop for four years at Sprott, and we’ve been incredibly bullish on the segment,” he told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week.
Ciampaglia’s firm runs the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SRUUF), which Morningstar ranks as the world’s largest physical uranium fund. It’s up 22% over the past two months.
The firm is also behind the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM), which is up almost 38% over the past two months. The Sprott website lists Cameco and NAC Kazatomprom JSC as the top two holdings in the fund as of June 12.
“It’s [uranium] a reliable form of energy. It has zero greenhouse gases. It has a very good long-term track record,” Ciampaglia said. “It provides a lot of electricity on a large scale, and that’s right now what the grid is calling for.”
Ciampaglia finds attitudes are changing toward nuclear energy because it offers energy security with a low carbon footprint. Uranium is “incredibly energy-dense” compared to most fossil fuels, he said, which makes it a promising option to ensure energy security.
He cited the 2022 energy crisis in Europe after Russia cut its oil supply to the region and April’s grid failure in Spain and Portugal as cases for more secure energy sources.
“We think this trend is long term and secular and durable,” Ciampaglia said. “With the exception of Germany, I think every country around the world has flipped back to nuclear power, which is a very powerful signal.”
‘You need reliable power’
VanEck CEO Jan van Eck is also heavily involved in the uranium space.
“You need reliable power,” he said. “These data centers can’t go down for a fraction of a second. They need to be running all the time.”
His firm is behind the VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF (NLR), which is up about 42% over the past two months. According to VanEck’s website as of June 12, its top three holdings are Oklo, Nuscale Power and Constellation Energy.
But he contends there’s a potential downside to the uranium trade: Building new nuclear power plants can take years.
“What’s going to happen in the meantime?” Van Eck said. “Investors are not patient, as we know.”
Van Eck also thinks it’s possible the Trump administration’s positive attitude toward nuclear power could fast track development.
He highlighted nuclear technology company Oklo during the interview. Its shares soared on Wednesday after the company announced it was anticipating a deal with the Air Force to supply nuclear power to a base in Alaska.
The agreement came not long after President Donald Trump in May signed a series of executive orders to rework the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, expedite new reactor construction and expand the domestic uranium industry.
“Trump controls federal land, so that’s not a NIMBY [not in my backyard] kind of potential risk,” said Van Eck. “They’re going to leverage that hard to start to show the safety of these newer, smaller technologies.”
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