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Expect a tempest in tax under Trump

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Expect plenty of changes in the world of tax under the new administration.

On Inauguration Day, President Donald Trump signed an executive order calling for a longer hiring freeze at the Internal Revenue Service than he was imposing on other federal agencies, as well as another executive order rejecting U.S. participation in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s two-pillar global tax framework. He also called for sending armed IRS agents to patrol the Mexican border, which the Department of Homeland Security later requested of the Treasury Department. 

Republicans in Congress are currently negotiating the contours of an extension of Trump’s signature tax legislation, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, along with his campaign promises of exempting certain kinds of income, such as tips, Social Security income and overtime, from taxes. 

Mark Everson, a former IRS commissioner who is currently vice chairman of Alliant, a tax consulting firm in Washington, D.C., believes the administration under Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will focus on the international front with tariffs and sanctions.

“It will be relatively more aggressive in the international arena,” said Everson. However, he believes the OECD tax deal would only be implemented through an act of Congress in the aftermath of Trump’s executive order.

(For insights on the new administration’s impact on other areas of regulation, like the PCAOB, see our feature article.)

He also expects to see changes at the IRS, with less emphasis on enforcement and diversity, equity and inclusion programs. “Consistent with the move against DEI, my guess would be a return to enforcement without scrutiny of results by racial grouping,” said Everson. “There’s a lot of discussion of the impact disproportionately on minorities through the Earned Income Tax Credit in terms of audit rates. I don’t think that will be considered in this approach going forward, given what they’ve already done with the abolition of the DEI offices, including, as I understand it, at the service.”

However, he expects to see continuing improvements in taxpayer service. “I do think that there will be common ground in terms of emphasis on service improvements,” said Everson. “I’m not suggesting that everything at the IRS is going to stop. Hardly. The Republicans feel very strongly about the need for good service, and I think that will be a focus of the administration once, presumably, Commissioner [Billy] Long is in office. I think there will be continuation and a great deal of focus on privacy versus efficiency. They’ll want to make the improvements on the system side, which are already underway, but I do think there will be a great deal of focus on privacy.”

Hiring freeze

The hiring freeze at the IRS could be a concern, however. 

“Will they be able to maintain adequate personnel? Time will tell on that, but I think we’ll know fairly quickly,” said Everson. “The filing season has already started, and I think that the impact of departures on the workforce will be felt over time. I’m not overly concerned about the filing season, per se. Over a period of time, if people are leaving government — and the IRS does have a very high component of people who have been working from home — because that is no longer allowed, what will the impact be there? That’s very much in the mix, but it will take time to feel the effects of that.”

He expects to see more of a focus at the IRS on process in terms of enforcement activities. Trump’s proposal to create an “External Revenue Service” to collect tariffs and duties could also introduce complications, since many of those functions are already performed at the Department of Homeland Security rather than the Treasury Department.

Billy Long speaking at a Donald Trump campaign event
Former Representative Billy Long, a Republican from Missouri, speaking at a Donald Trump campaign event

Al Drago/Bloomberg

After the election, Trump named former Rep. Billy Long, R-Missouri, to be the next IRS commissioner, even though IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel’s term was scheduled to run until November 2027. That prompted Werfel to announce his last day would be on Jan. 20, coinciding with Inauguration Day. When he was in Congress, Long had sponsored a bill to abolish the IRS and replace it with a consumption-based tax known as the Fair Tax. In January, a group of 12 Republican lawmakers revived the bill as the Fair Tax Act of 2025.

The Trump administration and Republicans in Congress have been moving to claw back at least half of the $80 billion in extra funding under the Inflation Reduction Act from the IRS’s enforcement efforts, which had been targeting large partnerships and corporations, as well as high-wealth individuals, for increased audits. That could affect the reliance of the agency on doing centralized partnership audits, which were allowed under the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015, but have only recently begun being used.

“Without the IRA funding — and as it stands today, there’s no funding coming from any additional sources — it is certainly less likely that the IRS will be able to conduct effective audits of partnerships,” said Colin Walsh, principal and practice leader of tax advocacy and controversy services at Top 10 Firm Baker Tilly. “Something could change tomorrow, and Billy Long could become commissioner and figure out a different way to finance it. Billy Long will have his own ideas, and we’re all curious to see how he’d like to build the IRS. There’s a big push to get federal workers back into the office. What impacts might that have? Maybe the theory could be that people working in an office are going to be more effective and more efficient than people working remotely. I don’t think at this stage we can even predict, if Billy Long becomes the commissioner, what that will look like, but we can say that it is going to be different. I think comfortably, we could say it’s going to be different than what it would have been like if the IRS had $80 billion and Danny Werfel, versus $40 billion and Billy Long. It is different objectively.”

“It doesn’t mean that it will necessarily be less stringent,” he noted. “We just don’t know, whereas six months ago, we all had a pretty good idea of where this was headed, because the IRS was explicit in saying what they were going to do, creating a partnership audit task force, auditing 80 of the largest partnerships, and in practice, we were seeing that last year.”

The IRS and the Treasury may also cut back on labeling tax transactions such as micro-captive insurance as “transactions of interest.”

“The IRS lost all those cases on making things transactions of interest or reportable transactions by notice,” said Bill Smith, managing director of the national tax office at Top 25 Firm CBIZ Advisors. “They now have to go through the regulatory process, with proposed regulations, a notice and comment period, all of that. Having nothing to do with the change of administration, they suffered a pretty serious setback there. They suffered a setback with the elimination of Chevron deference. It’s all taxpayer favorable, but is it good, sound policy? The IRS collects something like 97% of the revenue for the United States. I don’t know if Elon Musk is going to be able to cut that much out. If you’re going to eliminate a lot of the income, you’d better start eliminating the expenses too.”

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Accounting

Accounting firms seeing increased profits

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Accounting firms are reporting bigger profits and more clients, according to a new report.

The report, released Monday by Xero, found that nearly three-quarters (73%) of firms reported increased profits over the past year and 56% added new clients thanks to operational efficiency and expanded service offerings.

Some 85% of firms now offer client advisory services, a big spike from 41% in 2023, indicating a strategic shift toward delivering forward-looking financial guidance that clients increasingly expect.

AI adoption is also reshaping the profession, with 80% of firms confident it will positively affect their practice. Currently, the most common use cases for AI include: delivering faster and more responsive client services (33%), enhancing accuracy by reducing bookkeeping and accounting errors (33%), and streamlining workflows through the automation of routine tasks (32%).

“The widespread adoption of AI has been a turning point for the accounting profession, giving accountants an opportunity to scale their impact and take on a more strategic advisory role,” said Ben Richmond, managing director, North America, at Xero, in a statement. “The real value lies not just in working more efficiently, but working smarter, freeing up time to elevate the human element of the profession and in turn, strengthen client relationships.”

Some of the main challenges faced by firms include economic uncertainty (38%), mastering AI (36%) and rising client expectations for strategic advice (35%). 

While 85% of firms have embraced cloud platforms, a sizable number still lag behind, missing out on benefits such as easier data access from anywhere (40%) and enhanced security (36%).

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Accounting

Private equity is investing in accounting: What does that mean for the future of the business?

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Private equity firms have bought five of the top 26 accounting firms in the past three years as they mount a concerted strategy to reshape the industry. 

The trend should not come as a surprise. It’s one we’ve seen play out in several industries from health care to insurance, where a combination of low-risk, recurring revenue, scalability and an aging population of owners create a target-rich environment. For small to midsized accounting firms, the trend is exacerbated by a technological revolution that’s truly transforming the way accounting work is done, and a growing talent crisis that is threatening tried-and-true business models.

How will this type of consolidation affect the accounting business, and what do firms and their clients need to be on the lookout for as the marketplace evolves?

Assessing the opportunity… and the risk

First and foremost, accounting firm owners need to be aware of just how desirable they are right now. While there has been some buzz in the industry about the growing presence of private equity firms, most of the activity to date has focused on larger, privately held firms. In fact, when we recently asked tax professionals about their exposure to private equity funding in our 2025 State of Tax Professionals Report, we found that just 5% of firms have actually inked a deal and only 11% said they are planning to look, or are currently looking, for a deal with a private equity firm. Another 8% said they are open to discussion. On the one hand, that’s almost a quarter of firms feeling open to private equity investments in some way. But the lion’s share of respondents —  87% — said they were not interested.

Recent private equity deal volume suggests that the holdouts might change their minds when they have a real offer on the table. According to S&P Global, private equity and venture capital-backed deal value in the accounting, auditing and taxation services sector reached more than $6.3 billion in 2024, the highest level since 2015, and the trend shows no signs of slowing. Firm owners would be wise to start watching this trend to see how it might affect their businesses — whether they are interested in selling or not.

Focus on tech and efficiencies of scale

The reason this trend is so important to everyone in the industry right now is that the private equity firms entering this space are not trying to become accountants. They are looking for profitable exits. And they will do that by seizing on a critical inflection point in the industry that’s making it possible to scale accounting firms more rapidly than ever before by leveraging technology to deliver a much wider range of services at a much lower cost. So, whether your firm is interested in partnering with private equity or dead set on going it alone, the hyperscaling that’s happening throughout the industry will affect you one way or another.

Private equity thrives in fragmented businesses where the ability to roll up companies with complementary skill sets and specialized services creates an outsized growth opportunity. Andrew Dodson, managing partner at Parthenon Capital, recently commented after his firm took a stake in the tax and advisory firm Cherry Bekaert, “We think that for firms to thrive, they need to make investments in people and technology, and, obviously, regulatory adherence, to really differentiate themselves in the market. And that’s going to require scale and capital to do it. That’s what gets us excited.”

Over time, this could reshape the industry’s market dynamics by creating the accounting firm equivalent of the Traveling Wilburys — supergroups capable of delivering a wide range of specialized services that smaller, more narrowly focused firms could never previously deliver. It could also put downward pressure on pricing as these larger, platform-style firms start finding economies of scale to deliver services more cost-effectively.

The technology factor

The great equalizer in all of this is technology. Consistently, when I speak to tax professionals actively working in the market today, their top priorities are increased efficiency, growth and talent. Firms recognize they need to streamline workflows and processes through more effective use of technology, and they are investing heavily in AI, automation and data analytics capabilities to do that. Private equity firms, of course, are also investing in tech as they assemble their tax and accounting dream teams, in many cases raising the bar for the industry.

The question is: Can independent firms leverage technology fast enough to keep up with their deep-pocketed competition?

Many firms believe they can, with some even going so far as to publicly declare their independence.  Regardless of the path small to midsized firms take to get there, technology-enabled growth is going to play a key role in the future of the industry. Market dynamics that have been unfolding for the last decade have been accelerated with the introduction of serious investors, and everyone in the industry — large and small — is going to need to up their games to stay competitive.

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Trump tax bill would help the richest, hurt the poorest, CBO says

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The House-passed version of President Donald Trump’s massive tax and spending bill would deliver a financial blow to the poorest Americans but be a boon for higher-income households, according to a new analysis from the Congressional Budget Office.

The bottom 10% of households would lose an average of about $1,600 in resources per year, amounting to a 3.9% cut in their income, according to the analysis released Thursday. Those decreases are largely attributable to cuts in the Medicaid health insurance program and food aid through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.

Households in the highest 10% of incomes would see an average $12,000 boost in resources, amounting to a 2.3% increase in their incomes. Those increases are mainly attributable to reductions in taxes owed, according to the report from the nonpartisan CBO.

Households in the middle of the income distribution would see an increase in resources of $500 to $1,000, or between 0.5% and 0.8% of their income. 

The projections are based on the version of the tax legislation that House Republicans passed last month, which includes much of Trump’s economic agenda. The bill would extend tax cuts passed under Trump in 2017 otherwise due to expire at the end of the year and create several new tax breaks. It also imposes new changes to the Medicaid and SNAP programs in an effort to cut spending.

Overall, the legislation would add $2.4 trillion to US deficits over the next 10 years, not accounting for dynamic effects, the CBO previously forecast.

The Senate is considering changes to the legislation including efforts by some Republican senators to scale back cuts to Medicaid.

The projected loss of safety-net resources for low-income families come against the backdrop of higher tariffs, which economists have warned would also disproportionately impact lower-income families. While recent inflation data has shown limited impact from the import duties so far, low-income families tend to spend a larger portion of their income on necessities, such as food, so price increases hit them harder.

The House-passed bill requires that able-bodied individuals without dependents document at least 80 hours of “community engagement” a month, including working a job or participating in an educational program to qualify for Medicaid. It also includes increased costs for health care for enrollees, among other provisions.

More older adults also would have to prove they are working to continue to receive SNAP benefits, also known as food stamps. The legislation helps pay for tax cuts by raising the age for which able bodied adults must work to receive benefits to 64, up from 54. Under the current law, some parents with dependent children under age 18 are exempt from work requirements, but the bill lowers the age for the exemption for dependent children to 7 years old. 

The legislation also shifts a portion of the cost for federal food aid onto state governments.

CBO previously estimated that the expanded work requirements on SNAP would reduce participation in the program by roughly 3.2 million people, and more could lose or face a reduction in benefits due to other changes to the program. A separate analysis from the organization found that 7.8 million people would lose health insurance because of the changes to Medicaid.

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