Personal Finance
How Trump, DOGE job cuts may affect the U.S. economy
Published
7 hours agoon
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Protestors in New York City demonstrate against the push by President Donald Trump and Elon Musk, who leads the so-called Department of Government Efficiency, to gut federal services and impose mass layoffs, Feb. 19, 2025.
Michael Nigro/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images
The Trump administration’s purge of federal workers may ultimately amount to the biggest job cut in U.S. history, which is likely to have ramifications for the economy, especially at the local level, according to economists.
The White House, with the help of Elon Musk’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency, has fired or offered buyouts to workers across the federal government, the nation’s largest employer.
While the precise scale of the job cuts is as yet unclear, evidence suggests it’s at least in the tens of thousands so far, economists said.
The Trump administration directed federal agencies to dismiss “probationary” employees. Probationary workers are more-recent hires who have been with the federal government for only a year or two and who do not yet have full civil service protections.
There were about 220,000 federal employees with less than a year of tenure as of May 2024, according to the most recent data from the U.S. Office of Personnel Management.
Additionally, more than 75,000 federal workers have accepted a buyout offer, according to a Trump administration official. They agreed to resign but get paid through September.
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The total of these two groups — nearly 300,000 workers — would make these actions amount to the “largest job cut in American history (by a mile),” Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, wrote Tuesday.
That sum doesn’t include others who may be on the chopping block, such as contractors who work at the U.S. Agency for International Development. Career civil servants who got promotions in the past year are also at risk of losing their jobs, since they’re technically on probation in their new role, Jesse Rothstein, a public policy and economics professor at University of California, Berkeley, said in a podcast Thursday.
Job cuts have come from across the government, at agencies including the Internal Revenue Service, National Park Service, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and the departments of Agriculture, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, and Veterans Affairs, according to the Associated Press.
“We may soon find out the hard way that people drive the U.S. economy,” Cox wrote.
Assessing the scale of federal job cuts
Arlene Rusch, former Internal Revenue Service worker, shows an email notifying her that she has been laid off, as she leaves her office in downtown Denver, Colorado, Feb. 20, 2025. The IRS began laying off roughly 6,000 employees in the middle of tax season as the Trump administration slashes the federal workforce.
Hyoung Chang | Denver Post | Getty Images
The ultimate number of cuts isn’t likely to be as high as 300,000, economists said.
For example, there may be some crossover: Probationary workers who would have been fired may have accepted a buyout. Also, in some cases, the Trump administration tried hiring back workers who’d been terminated.
Public disclosures show more than 26,000 federal workers have already been fired, excluding buyouts, according to a research note Wednesday from investment bank Piper Sandler.
That’s about the same number of workers who lost their jobs when Lehman Brothers collapsed during the 2008 financial crisis, for example.
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But Thomas Ryan, a North America economist at Capital Economics, estimates that between 100,000 and 200,000 federal staffers have probably already been let go.
That would handily beat IBM’s 1993 purge of 60,000 workers, thought to be the largest corporate layoff in U.S. history. Among other notable corporate cuts, Citigroup and Sears, Roebuck & Co. each slashed about 50,000 jobs, in 2008 and 1993, respectively.
“Certainly if all 200,000-plus probationary workers are fired [without replacement] that would be historic,” Susan Houseman, senior economist at the nonpartisan W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, wrote in an e-mail.
Even among prior federal layoffs, the scale of potential cuts appears unprecedented, experts said.
The U.S. Army, for example, eliminated 50,000 jobs in September 2011 as former President Barack Obama withdrew troops from Afghanistan and Iraq, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The U.S. Air Force announced plans in 2005 to reduce head count by 40,000, the firm said.
We may soon find out the hard way that people drive the U.S. economy.
Callie Cox
chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management
The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracked data on federal mass layoffs from 1995 to 2003. During that period, mass layoffs affected anywhere from roughly 9,000 federal workers per year to 23,000 a year, the data show.
If the current federal job cuts “are not historic yet, it feels like we’re headed in that direction pretty quickly,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s.
The White House didn’t comment on the specific scale of cuts.
“President Trump and his administration are delivering on the American people’s mandate to eliminate wasteful spending and make federal agencies more efficient, which includes removing probationary employees who are not mission critical,” Anna Kelly, a White House spokesperson, said in a written statement. “This is part of President Trump’s sweeping effort to save taxpayer dollars, cut wasteful spending, and restore our broken economy.”
Potential economic impact
Job loss can be painful for household finances.
Affected workers who can’t quickly find new jobs may be forced to make ends meet without regular income. Unemployment benefits may offer a temporary stopgap to eligible workers, but they replace only about a third of prior wages, on average, according to Labor Department data.
The majority of workers who suffer job loss are affected long term, as they have trouble finding new full-time jobs and subsequently earn less money, according to a 2016 research paper by Henry Farber, professor emeritus of economics at Princeton University, who studied data from 1981 to 2015.
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“There are economic impacts to [laid-off workers], their families, to the businesses they would have bought goods and services from,” said Erica Groshen, a senior economics advisor at Cornell University and former commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“The economic consequences of layoffs are like a domino effect that spread across local economies to businesses that seem to have no connection whatsoever to the federal government,” said Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Yale University Budget Lab.
Laid-off workers may spend less at businesses such as local coffee shops, restaurants and day care facilities, he said.
There’s a psychological factor to mass layoffs, too, economists said. Other federal workers, fearful for their jobs, may pull back on spending and delay big-ticket purchases. Businesses with ties to the federal government or the federal workforce may stop hiring and investing due to uncertainty.
Washington, D.C., for example, is expected to suffer a “meaningful” increase in unemployment that would push the capital into a “mild recession,” Adam Kamins and Justin Begley, economists at Moody’s, wrote in a note Tuesday.
Close to 100,000 federal government positions will be eliminated or moved from Washington in the next couple of years, Kamins and Begley estimate. A “flood” of job applicants will limit the private sector’s ability to absorb them into the labor pool, they said.
The economies of Maryland and Virginia won’t suffer to the same degree but will be “materially” hurt due to their exposure to government employment, Kamins and Begley wrote.
Layoffs aren’t likely to show up in federal data for another month, and not until September for those who take the severance deal, according to Piper Sandler. Unemployment claims in Washington, D.C., for the week ended Feb. 8 were up 36% from the prior week.
‘Not recessionary’ on its own
Economists don’t expect the job cuts will have a huge impact on the overall U.S. economy, however.
If about 200,000 probationary workers were to lose their jobs, it would shave roughly one-tenth of a percentage point from annual U.S. gross domestic product, said Tedeschi, who served as chief economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisers during the Biden administration.
“This, on its own, is not recessionary,” he said.
Elon Musk, second from the left, walks along the colonnade at the White House on Feb. 19, 2025.
Win Mcnamee | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Ryan, of Capital Economics, said the scope of federal layoffs is relatively small when considered in the context of the U.S. labor market, which added roughly 1.5 million jobs in 2024. He said he expects most displaced federal workers to be rehired quickly since the economy is near full employment, “making any pain short-lived.”
Capital Economics hasn’t downgraded its economic growth forecasts due to the federal layoffs, Ryan said. That assessment includes potential ripple effects felt indirectly through the economy.
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“Even adding the knock-on effects, it’s not going to plunge the U.S. into a recession,” Tedeschi said. “Let’s be realistic here.”
But mass layoffs add to the pressure already being placed on the economy by other Trump administration policies, such as tariffs and mass deportations, economists said.
“This was a healthy economy coming into 2025,” Tedeschi said. “And suddenly we have a number of serious potential headwinds that are stacking up. And this is one of them.”
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Personal Finance
Student loan borrowers in SAVE will soon be booted. What to know
Published
1 day agoon
February 22, 2025
Damircudic | E+ | Getty Images
Student loan borrowers who expected smaller monthly payments under the new Saving on a Valuable Education, or SAVE, plan received some bad news on Feb. 18, when a U.S. appeals court blocked the program.
As a result, millions of people will need to switch to a new repayment plan soon.
The adjustment will likely be challenging, said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.
“Borrowers who were in SAVE will have to pay more on their federal student loans, in some cases double or even triple the monthly loan payment,” Kantrowitz said.
The recent appeals court order, in addition to blocking SAVE, also ended student loan forgiveness under other income-driven repayment plans.
Here’s what borrowers need to know.
Why was the SAVE plan blocked?
The Biden administration rolled out the SAVE plan in the summer of 2023, describing it as “the most affordable student loan plan ever.”
However, Republican-backed states quickly filed lawsuits against the program. They argued that former President Joe Biden, with SAVE, was essentially trying to find a roundabout way to forgive student debt after the Supreme Court blocked his attempt at sweeping debt cancellation.
SAVE came with two key provisions that the the legal challenges targeted. It had lower monthly payments than any other income-driven repayment plan offered to student loan borrowers, and it led to quicker debt erasure for those with small balances.
(Income-driven repayment plans set your monthly bill based on your income and family size, and used to lead to debt forgiveness after a certain period, but the terms vary.)
The 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals on Feb. 18 sided with the seven Republican-led states that filed a lawsuit against the U.S. Department of Education’s repayment plan.
What happens to my forbearance?
While the legal challenges against SAVE were playing out, the Biden administration put student loan borrowers who had enrolled in the plan into an interest-free forbearance. That plan said the pause on any bill could last until December.
But now, Kantrowitz said, “It will likely end sooner under the Trump administration, within weeks or months.”
Do I need to enroll in another plan?
The answer is yes, you need to enroll in another plan.
Borrowers should start looking now at their other repayment options, experts said.
The recent appeals court order against SAVE also ended student loan forgiveness under many other income-driven repayment plans, including the Revised Pay-As-You-Earn repayment plan, or REPAYE.
Currently, only the Income-Based Repayment Plan, or IBR, leads to debt cancellation.
However, if you’re pursuing Public Service Loan Forgiveness, you should be eligible for debt cancellation after 10 years on any of the IDR plans, said Betsy Mayotte, president of The Institute of Student Loan Advisors, a nonprofit that helps borrowers navigate the repayment of their debt. (PSLF offers debt erasure for certain public servants after 10 years of payments.)
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“It’s also important to point out that all the IDR plans cross-pollinate for forgiveness,” Mayotte said. “If someone has been on PAYE for eight years and now switches to IBR, they will still have eight years under their belt toward IBR forgiveness.”
There are several tools available online to help you determine how much your monthly bill would be under different plans.
Meanwhile, the Standard Repayment Plan is a good option for borrowers who are not seeking or eligible for loan forgiveness and can afford the monthly payments, experts say. Under that plan, payments are fixed and borrowers typically make payments for up to 10 years.
What if I can’t afford the new payments?
If you can’t afford the monthly payments under your new repayment plan, you should first see if you qualify for a deferment, experts say. That’s because your loans may not accrue interest under that option, whereas they almost always do in a forbearance.
If you’re unemployed when student loan payments resume, you can request an unemployment deferment with your servicer. If you’re dealing with another financial challenge, meanwhile, you may be eligible for an economic hardship deferment.
Other, lesser-known deferments include the graduate fellowship deferment, the military service and post-active duty deferment and the cancer treatment deferment.
Student loan borrowers who don’t qualify for a deferment may request a forbearance.
Under this option, borrowers can keep their loans on hold for as long as three years. However, because interest accrues during the forbearance period, borrowers can be hit with a larger bill when it ends.
Personal Finance
Don’t wait to file your taxes this season, experts say. Here’s why
Published
2 days agoon
February 21, 2025
Images By Tang Ming Tung | Digitalvision | Getty Images
Tax identity theft remains a ‘serious problem’
One key reason to file your return early is to avoid tax identity theft, experts say. By filing sooner, you can block thieves from using your Social Security number to file a fraudulent return, Brewer said.
Tax-related identity theft continues to be a “serious problem,” with many victims facing processing and refund delays, National Taxpayer Advocate Erin Collins wrote in her January report to Congress.
At the end of fiscal year 2024, the average processing time to resolve identity theft victim assistance cases was more than 22 months, up from 19 months the previous year, Collins reported.
For the 2024 filing season, the IRS confirmed more than 15,600 identity theft returns through Feb. 29, 2024, up from about 12,600 in 2023, according to a Treasury report issued on April 30.
‘Measure twice, cut once’
Whether you’re filing early because you’re eager for a refund or want to protect yourself from identity theft, you’ll still need a complete and accurate return to avoid delays, experts say.
While many tax forms come in January, others won’t arrive until mid-February to March or longer, according to the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants.
But once you have the necessary forms, “don’t be in a hurry to press ‘send,'” said Tom O’Saben, an enrolled agent and director of tax content and government relations at the National Association of Tax Professionals.
You should always double-check key details like your name, Social Security number, banking information and other filing data. When it comes to return accuracy, aim to “measure twice, cut once,” he said.
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IRS layoffs could impact service
With thousands of IRS layoffs this week, some experts worry the cuts could impact taxpayer service.
But your refund shouldn’t be affected if you file an accurate return electronically and select direct deposit for payment, O’Saben said.
Typically, you can expect the IRS to process your e-filed return within 21 days. “Corrections or extra review” could take longer, according to the agency.
“Barring a [system] crash, I would expect business as usual,” O’Saben said. “There shouldn’t be an issue meeting the timeline that the IRS lays out.”
Personal Finance
Federal workers’ money questions answered
Published
2 days agoon
February 21, 2025
Protesters demonstrate in support of federal workers outside of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services on Feb. 14, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Anna Moneymaker | Getty Images
On Feb. 11, Elizabeth Aniskevich, an attorney at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, received a notice that she was being terminated immediately.
“I was completely shocked,” said Aniskevich, 39. She had been with the CFPB for nine months and imagined spending her entire career in the federal government.
“I didn’t expect it to unfold this way,” she said.
More than a week later, she’s still scrambling for basic answers. “There’s no information about what’s going on with my benefits, or what I need to do with unemployment,” Aniskevich said.
She’s worried about how she’ll pay the mortgage on her Washington, D.C., apartment after her emergency savings runs out in a few months.
“I’ve worked really hard to be financially stable,” Aniskevich said.
Elizabeth Aniskevich.
Courtesy: Elizabeth Aniskevich
Aniskevich is one of thousands of federal workers laid off by the new Trump administration in recent weeks and thrown into financial and career uncertainty. President Donald Trump and Elon Musk‘s secretive government-slashing effort, the Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE, are working to shrink the federal workforce.
Losing one’s job is always difficult. But the suddenness and speed of the firings, which have affected offices from the Environmental Protection Agency to the U.S. Department of Education, have left workers especially in the dark about their rights and next steps, experts said.
“Most people would have selected the public sector because it has a reputation of being a more stable work environment than the private sector,” said Don Moynihan, a public policy professor at the University of Michigan. “But in this case, that stability proved to be an illusion.”
CNBC spoke with financial advisors and policy experts to get answers to some of the many important questions terminated federal workers likely have right now.
Workers may be able to appeal, take legal action
The Trump administration and Musk’s DOGE have largely targeted workers on a probationary status for cuts.
That’s because probationary workers, who have typically been in their position for a year or less, have fewer protections after they’re removed than do career civil servants, said David Eric Lewis, a political science professor at Vanderbilt University.
For example, probationary workers might not meet the requirements to appeal their termination to the U.S. Merit Systems Protection Board. The board reviews cases in which federal workers were laid off or suspended.
Still, there are limited cases when they can appeal, experts said. You should speak to an employment lawyer or your union representative for more details, experts recommend.
The name and logo for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is seen scraped off the door of its building in Washington, D.C., U.S., Feb. 20, 2025.
Brian Snyder | Reuters
“They can also seek legal relief,” Lewis said. Your union may help you file your lawsuit in federal court, he added.
It can be more effective to bring your legal challenge as a group, with other terminated federal workers, Lewis said.
“That’s what is happening,” he said. “There’s a hope that there is at least a stop to these orders.”
A federal judge Thursday denied a bid by labor unions to block the mass layoffs across the federal workforce. The National Treasury Employees Union alongside four other groups filed a lawsuit against the firings on Feb. 12.
What to know about unemployment benefits
Federal workers can collect unemployment benefits through the Unemployment Compensation for Federal Employees (UCFE) program. Some government employees — including ex-military personnel discharged under honorable conditions and former members of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration — receive benefits through a separate program, known as the Unemployment Compensation for Ex-servicemembers (UCX).
The jobless benefits, which are supposed to arrive within two or three weeks after you apply for them, are nearly identical to those of private-sector workers, said Michele Evermore, senior fellow at the National Academy of Social Insurance.
States — as well as U.S. territories and the District of Columbia — administer the payments. Workers must submit an application with the appropriate workforce agency. You should apply in the state or district where your last official duty station was located, Evermore said.
Those working remotely on a full-time basis likely need to file a claim in their state of residence, Evermore said.
Workers should apply for unemployment as soon as possible, experts said. Delays are likely amid the purge of government workers.
Those claiming UCFE benefits will likely need to include certain documents with their claim, including a SF-8, or a Notice to Federal Employee About Unemployment Insurance, as well as a SF-50, or a Notification of Personnel Action, according to the U.S. Labor Department.
Those applying for UCX benefits should have a copy of their service and discharge documents — DD-214 or a similar form, the Labor Department said.
Federal employers are supposed to provide these forms to workers upon separation, but Aniskevich said the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau still hadn’t given her those documents as of Friday.
For now, she filed her unemployment application in Washington, D.C., without them.
“It’s stressful to have uncertainty about whether my claim can be processed given the lack of forms,” Aniskevich said.
Federal agencies appear to be citing lackluster performance as rationale for many job cuts in termination letters, experts said. Even so, workers should still apply for benefits, Evermore said. The cause must generally rise to the level of “gross misconduct” to prevent people from receiving aid.
This could delay benefits if the government contests a claim, however, experts said.
Health coverage for terminated workers
Meanwhile Chris, who worked as a transportation program specialist at the Federal Transit Administration, was laid off on February 14. Like Aniskevich, he was a probationary worker, and had been employed by the FTA for around nine months. (He requested to use his first name only, out of fear of retaliation from the Trump administration.)
Despite the financial stability usually associated with a federal job, he found himself with no protections.
“There was no severance pay,” said Chris, 33, who is based in the Los Angeles area.
Chris did learn that his health benefits will continue for 31 calendar days after Valentine’s Day.
Similarly, federal employees should try to determine the specific date their health coverage will end, experts said. While the timelines may vary, most probationary workers will need to find new health insurance soon.
Those who wish to continue with their current health care should look into the federal government’s Temporary Continuation of Coverage, experts say. Under this option, you’re able to extend your federal workplace plan for up to 18 months after termination. (It’s similar to COBRA, or the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act, for private-sector workers.)
Keep in mind that, with TCC, you’ll be responsible for the full cost of your premiums, plus any administrative fees.
“It’s going to be [a] pretty big hike,” said Brennan Rhule, a Reston, Virginia-based certified financial planner who specializes in federal workers.
If the new premium cost is too high to shoulder under TCC, you may qualify for a special enrollment period of the Affordable Care Act marketplace, according to Kate Ende, leader of the policy team at the Consumers for Affordable Health Care, a nonprofit. The special enrollment period typically gives you 60 days to sign up for a marketplace plan after you lost your coverage.
Medicaid might also be an option, Ende said, and if you qualify you can enroll at any time for it.
Relief options for recurring bills
Federal workers concerned about staying current with their bills should reach out to their lenders and explain their situation, consumer advocates said.
For instance, contact your mortgage lender and ask about forbearance or deferment options, said John Breyault, vice president of public policy at the National Consumers League. If you’re a renter, landlords and property managers may offer temporary payment plans or deferments.
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Some auto lenders allow deferments, too, especially if you have a good payment track record. Meanwhile, your auto insurer may be able to adjust your coverage and lower your costs if you will no longer be driving long distances to work, Breyault said.
For utilities like electricity, water, gas, internet and phone service, see if your providers offer a grace period or deferred payments, Breyault said.
Those with student loan bills can request an unemployment deferment with their servicer.
Keep in mind that such concessions and breaks can be helpful in the near-term, but read the terms thoroughly. There could be long-term costs associated, such as interest continuing to accrue or other fees.
Watch out for ‘undoable’ retirement account missteps
Federal workers who find themselves unexpectedly out of work may be tempted to take money from their retirement plans. However, experts emphasize it is important to know the ins and outs of each plan’s rules to avoid unexpected costs.
“Before you do anything, make sure you talk to somebody who understands and can guide you,” said CFP Mark Keen, who is a federal benefits expert with the National Active and Retired Federal Employees Association.
“Make sure that you don’t make any mistakes that are undoable,” said Keen, who is also a partner at Keen & Pocock.
Federal workers generally have access to a pension through the Federal Employee Retirement System, or FERS, and to a defined contribution savings plan, known as the Thrift Savings Plan, or TSP.
FERS provides a guaranteed income stream once a worker reaches a certain age, a perk that’s mostly unavailable in the private sector, Keen said.
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Federal workers may withdraw their FERS contributions if they leave federal employment, but that may not be the best choice. It will take a while to build your pension back up if you return to federal service, said Katelyn Murray, a chartered federal employee benefits consultant and director of relationship management at Serving Those Who Serve.
If you leave the balance intact, you retain the years of service you’ve accumulated, Murray said. Having a FERS pension also allows retirees to continue health coverage through the Federal Employees Health Benefits, or FEHB, in retirement.
Even if you’re not sure you may return to federal work, you may want to think twice before cashing out, Murray said.
“It’s more about flexibility and keeping your options open,” Murray said.
Federal workers may have some flexibility with a Thrift Savings Plan that is like a 401(k) plan and allows employees to make contributions that are matched by government agencies.
Generally, participants who are at least age 59½ can make withdrawals without penalties.
In some cases, workers may qualify for the Rule of 55, which may allow them to take withdrawals from the TSP without having to pay a 10% early withdrawal penalty, provided they are at least age 55 when they leave their job (or age 50 for some public safety employees).
If you haven’t found another job yet, you can’t take a TSP loan, but you may be able to look at doing a hardship withdrawal, Murray said. Importantly, by doing so you may incur taxes and/or penalties, as well as delay your anticipated retirement date.
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