Then Social Security Commissioner Martin O’Malley testifies before the Senate Committee on the Budget on Sept. 11, 2024.
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Social Security has never missed a benefit payment since the program first began sending individuals monthly benefits more than eight decades ago.
But the recent actions at the U.S. Social Security Administration by Elon Musk‘s so-calledDepartment of Government Efficiency are putting monthly benefit checks for more than 72.5 million Americans at risk, former commissioner and former Maryland governor Martin O’Malley told CNBC.com.
“Ultimately, you’re going to see the system collapse and an interruption of benefits,” O’Malley said. “I believe you will see that within the next 30 to 90 days.”
Ahead of any interruption in benefits, “people should start saving now,” O’Malley said.
The Social Security Administration uses multiple systems and technologies that Elon Musk has criticized for leading to errors. As commissioner, O’Malley told Congress the agency needed more funding for IT modernization.
O’Malley said DOGE leaders are now making changes at the agency, and significant staff cuts have already led to system outages. Those intermittent IT outages may happen more frequently and for more extended periods of time until there is a “system collapse and an interruption of benefits,” he said.
Neither the Social Security Administration nor the White House responded to requests for comment by press time.
Social Security Administration leadership upheaval
The Department of Government Efficiency, also known as DOGE, is not a federal department. And Musk, whom President Donald Trump brought on board to implement DOGE, is not an elected official.
Since its establishment, DOGE has looked to slash spending at federal government agencies.
The cuts have led to leadership upheaval, with the recent resignation of acting commissioner Michelle King following a reported disagreement over DOGE’s access to sensitive data. O’Malley resigned from the Social Security Administration in November to run for chairman of the Democratic National Committee, a race which he lost to Minnesota Democrat Ken Martin.
Trump has nominated Frank Bisignano, CEO of financial-technology company Fiserv, to serve as the new commissioner of the Social Security Administration. Bisignano has yet to sit for Senate confirmation hearings.
In the interim, Lee Dudek, who first joined the agency in 2009, has been appointed acting commissioner.
Earlier this month, Dudek posted on LinkedIn that he had been placed on administrative leave from the agency for helping DOGE representatives, The Wall Street Journal reported on Feb. 20.
“Our continuing priority is paying beneficiaries the right amount at the right time, and providing other critical services people rely on from us,” Dudek said in a Feb. 19 statement about his appointment.
Whose benefits may be most at risk
Yet experts say the benefits Americans rely on could be at risk based on the Trump administration’s overhaul of the agency.
“The American public needs to understand that one of their major social safety nets is in dire jeopardy,” said Jill Hornick, a union official at the American Federation of Government Employees Local 1395, which primarily represents Social Security offices in Illinois.
“It’ll take a while for the effects to be felt, but they’re coming,” Hornick said, predicting what will happen to Social Security is going to be “far worse” than the planned cuts to Medicaid.
For people who are already receiving Social Security benefits, most of that is automated and may not be affected, she said. However, processing new claims — whether it be for retirement or disability benefits — may take longer since those cannot be processed without Social Security employees, she said.
On Thursday, the Social Security Administration sent a notice to employees that gives them until March 14 to decide whether to take an early buyout. Unlike a previous January offer, this now includes service employees, and staffing reductions in that area may impact how quickly the agency processes benefit claims and provides other services, Hornick said.
For example, if a woman files for a survivor benefit after her husband passes away, she needs to provide a copy of her marriage license. A Social Security employee then needs to code the system to verify they have seen that document and the applicant is eligible for benefits, Hornick said.
“Not everybody can do things electronically,” particularly the older adults and disabled individuals who the Social Security Administration serves, said Maria Freese, senior legislative representative at the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare.
“If you don’t have people to run an agency that requires hands-on customer service, then of course there’s a risk that you could end up with benefits being either denied or interrupted,” Freese said.
Office closures may reduce access to services
The DOGE savings web page has a list of about 45 Social Security locations where leases will be terminated, according to Rich Couture, spokesperson for AFGE SSA General Committee, a union that represents 42,000 Social Security employees nationally.
The list provides little information on the uses for the locations that are being closed. Based on the square footage listed, they may be sites used to conduct in-person hearings for disability benefits, Couture said. In one case, the location seems to be a busy New York state field office that provides general services, he said.
“If they’re going to close these offices that are busy in highly populated areas, it would suggest to me that there’s no office in this country that would be safe from having a lease terminated, especially in rural areas,” Couture said.
In a recent statement, Rep. John Larson, D-Conn., said the moves are a “backdoor benefit cut.”
“Let me be clear — laying off half of the workforce at the Social Security Administration and shuttering field offices will mean the delay, disruption and denial of benefits,” Larson said.
In a statement to CNBC.com earlier this week, the Social Security Administration said it has not set any reduction targets, in response to reports it plans to cut 50% of its employees.
As a union, AFGE has been issuing bargaining demands in response to the agency’s recent decisions and plans to enforce employee rights through other methods as necessary, spokesperson Couture said.
While many lawsuits have been filed, it will take time to work through them, especially as the courts are now being flooded with cases tied to the Trump administration’s actions, said Nancy Altman, president of advocacy organization Social Security Works.
The biggest results may come from the pressure American voters could put on elected officials, former SSA commissioner O’Malley said.
“I think many people throughout the country are going to start bringing a lot of heat to members of Congress who have been facilitating, supporting, aiding and abetting the breaking of their Social Security and the interruption of benefits that they work their whole lives to earn,” he said. “These are earned benefits.”
A visitor waves an American flag near the U.S. Capitol, as the U.S. House of Representatives considers U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax-cut bill, on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 19, 2025.
Nathan Howard | Reuters
A tax package House Republicans may pass as soon as this week would kill a slew of consumer tax breaks tied to clean energy, as currently drafted. If it becomes law, households interested in the tax breaks may have to rush to claim them this year, experts said.
The Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act, which made historic investments to combat climate change, created or enhanced those tax breaks.
Most would be terminated after 2025, about seven years earlier than under current law.
“Based on the existing proposed language, if you’ve been considering an EV or planning to get one, now is the time to do it,” Alexia Melendez Martineau, senior policy manager at Plug In America, wrote in an e-mail.
Termination of EV tax credits
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Consumers who buy a new EV can claim a tax break worth up to $7,500. One for used EVs is worth up to $4,000. Car dealers can also pass along a $7,500 credit to consumers who lease an electric vehicle.
The House tax proposal would terminate these tax credits after 2025. The Inflation Reduction Act made them available through 2032.
A “special rule” would keep the $7,500 credit in place for some new EVs for an additional year, through 2026. However, it would only be available for new vehicles from automakers that haven’t yet sold 200,000 EVs. That would disqualify EVs from companies like General Motors (GM), Tesla (TSLA) and Toyota (TM).
About 7.5% of all new-vehicle sales in the first quarter of 2025 were EVs, an increase from 7% a year earlier, according to Cox Automotive. Tax credits for EVs have been available in some form since 2008, when George W. Bush approved them.
The Inflation Reduction Act made it easier for consumers to access the EV credit, by allowing dealers to issue the tax break to consumers upfront at the point of sale instead of waiting until tax season. Consumers who buy an EV in the near term would be wise to pick this option, experts said.
“We recommend taking the upfront rebate at the dealership, as it reduces the price you pay now and shifts liability to the dealer to manage getting the credit from the IRS,” Martineau said.
Axing home efficiency tax credits
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House Republicans also aim to axe various tax breaks tied to making existing homes more energy-efficient.
These breaks defray the cost of projects like installing insulation, solar panels, heat pumps, and installing energy-efficient windows and doors, for example.
One — the energy efficient home improvement credit, also known as the 25C credit — is worth up to 30% of the cost of a qualifying project. Taxpayers can claim up to $3,200 per year on their tax returns, with the overall dollar amount tied to specific projects.
Another — the residential clean energy credit, or the 25D credit — is also worth 30% of qualifying project costs. It doesn’t have an annual or lifetime dollar, except for certain limits on fuel cells, according to the IRS.
They are currently available through 2032. (The 25D credit phases down to 26% for installations in 2033 and 22% for those in 2034.)
Both tax credits would be repealed after 2025 under the House bill.
The 25C and 25D credits have been available in some form since 1978 and 2005, respectively, according to economists at the Haas Energy Institute at the University of California, Berkeley.
More than 3.4 million U.S. households claimed one of the credits in 2023, receiving more than $8 billion, according to the Treasury Department.
Experts recommend that consumers considering a home-efficiency project have it completed by year’s end to be able to claim a tax credit.
“If a homeowner was looking to take advantage of the 25C tax credit, under what is being proposed [by the House] they’d need to ensure their system was put in service this year,” said Kara Saul Rinaldi, president and CEO of AnnDyl Policy Group, an energy and environmental policy strategy firm.
The House tax bill may change
Republicans are eyeing the climate tax breaks as a way to raise money for a sprawling package that also extends measures from President Trump’s 2017 tax law and cuts taxes on overtime and tips, for example.
The House tax plan’s repeal or modification of clean energy credits — including those for EVs and home efficiency — would raise $707 billion over a decade, according to an analysis published Monday by the Penn Wharton Budget Model.
As drafted, the overall House bill would raise the U.S. deficit by a net $3.3 trillion over a decade, after accounting for spending cuts, Penn Wharton said.
The Senate also needs to pass the measure before it heads to the president’s desk.
“Republicans are far from united, with deficit hawks pushing for greater deficit reduction, centrists objecting to steep welfare cuts and blue-state Republicans fighting for bigger State and Local Tax (SALT) exemptions,” Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a research note on Tuesday.
UNITED STATES – MARCH 31: Rep. Billy Long, R-Mo., is seen during the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Communications and Technology hearing titled Connecting America: Oversight of the FCC, in Rayburn Building on Thursday, March 31, 2022.
Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images
Senate lawmakers pressed President Donald Trump‘s pick for IRS Commissioner, former Missouri Congressman Billy Long, about his opinions on presidential power over the agency, use of taxpayer data and his ties to dubious tax credits.
Long, who worked as an auctioneer before serving six terms in the House of Representatives, answered Senate Finance Committee queries during a confirmation hearing Tuesday.
One of the key themes from Democrats was Trump’s power over the agency, and Long told the committee, “the IRS will not, should not be politicized on my watch.”
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., who provided her questions to Long in advance, asked whether Trump could legally end Harvard University’s tax-exempt status. If permitted, the move could have broad implications for the President’s power over the agency, she argued.
However, Long didn’t answer the question directly.
“I don’t intend to let anybody direct me to start [an] audit for political reasons,” he said.
Ties to dubious tax credits
Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., scrutinized Long’s online promotion of the pandemic-era employee retention tax credit worth thousands per eligible employee. The tax break sparked a cottage industry of scrupulous companies pushing the tax break to small businesses that didn’t qualify.
“I didn’t say everyone qualifies,” Long said. “I said virtually everyone qualifies.”
Senatorsalso asked about Long’s referral income from companies pushing so-called “tribal tax credits,” which the IRS has told Democratic lawmakers don’t exist.
“I did not have any perception whatsoever that these did not exist,” Long told the committee.
Senate Democrats also raised questions about donations people connected to those credits made to Long’s dormant Senate campaign, after Trump announced his nomination to head the IRS.
Direct File ‘one of the hottest topics’
While Senate Democrats grilled Long on his record, Republicans focused on questions about taxpayer service. Several Republican lawmakers voiced support for Long, including the committee chairman Mike Crapo, R-Idaho.
If confirmed by the Senate, Long could mean a shift for the agency, which previously embarked on a multibillion-dollar revamp, including upgrades to customer service, technology and a free filing program, known as Direct File.
When asked about the future of Direct File, Long said he planned to promptly examine the program, describing it as “one of the hottest topics at the IRS.”
‘An unconventional pick’
Since former IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel’s resignation in January, there have been three other leaders for the agency. If confirmed, Long would serve as IRS Commissioner for the remainder of the term through Nov. 12, 2027. The date for the vote isn’t yet confirmed.
Mark Everson, who served as IRS commissioner from 2003 to 2007, described Long as “an unconventional pick,” compared with the experience profiles of previous IRS leaders.
But Long’s years in Congress will provide “credibility up on the Hill with the people who matter, which will be important,” Everson, who is currently vice chairman at Alliant, a management consulting company, previously told CNBC.
Long may be in a “better position than others to argue for the appropriate independence of the agency,” he said.
The Education Department disclosed the information in a May 15 court filing in response to a legal challenge lodged by the American Federation of Teachers. The teachers’ union sued the Trump administration in March for shutting down access to income-driven repayment plan applications on the Education Department’s website.
IDR plans cap borrowers’ monthly bills at a share of their discretionary income with the aim of making their payments manageable.
In late March, the Trump administration made the online applications available again, and said that it pulled the forms because it needed to make sure all repayment plans complied with a court order that blocked the Biden administration’s new IDR plan, known as SAVE, or the Saving on a Valuable Education plan.
Trump officials argued that the ruling had broader implications for other IDR plans, and it ended up removing the loan forgiveness component under some of the options.
The backlog complicates things for borrowers as the Trump administration restarts collection activity. The Education Department estimates that nearly 10 million people could be in default on their student loans within months.
Without access to an affordable repayment plan, student loan borrowers can be suspended on their timeline to loan forgiveness and at risk of falling behind and facing collection activity.
‘The opposite of government efficiency’
In the May court document, the Education Department disclosed that more than 1.98 million IDR applications remained pending as of the end of April. Only roughly 79,000 requests had been approved or denied during that month.
Consumer advocates slammed the findings.
“This filing confirms what borrowers have known for months: Their applications for loan relief have effectively been going into a void,” said Winston Berkman-Breen, legal director at the Student Borrower Protection Center.
The Center said that if the Education Department continued to move at its current rate, it would take more than two years to process the existing applications.
AFT President Randi Weingarten called the backlog “outrageous and unacceptable.”
“This is the opposite of government efficiency,” Weingarten said. “Millions of borrowers are being denied their legal right to an affordable repayment option.”
What’s behind the backlog
A spokesperson for the Education Dept. blamed the backlog on the Biden administration, saying that it “failed to process income-driven repayment applications for borrowers, artificially masking rising delinquency and default rates and promising illegal student loan forgiveness to win points with voters.”
“The Trump Administration is actively working with federal student loan servicers and hopes to clear the Biden backlog over the next few months,” they said.
The Biden administration put the student loan borrowers who’d enrolled in its new IDR plan, SAVE, into an interest-free forbearance while the GOP-led legal challenges to the program unfolded. Many of the currently pending IDR requests are likely from borrowers who are trying to leave that blocked plan to get into an available one.
Sarah Sattlemeyer, a project director at New America and senior advisor under the Biden administration, said that the current backlog began last year “and has existed across both the Biden and Trump administrations” as a result of the legal battle over the SAVE plan.
“It is a demonstration of how complicated the loan system is, how much uncertainty there has been over the last few years and what is at stake,” Sattlemeyer said. “There also isn’t clarity around how some applications in the backlog should or will be handled, such as those where a borrower chose an option that no longer exists on the application.”
In recent months, the Trump administration has terminated around half of the Education Department’s staff, including many of the people who helped assist borrowers.
That is also likely one reason why so many of the applications haven’t been processed, said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.
“Perhaps the reduction in staff is affecting their ability to process the forms,” Kantrowitz said.