As excitement over DeepSeek moderated, JPMorgan gave its clients a warning: “Be careful: U.S.-China risks back in focus.” The Feb. 24 note cautioned that the White House’s new America First Investment Policy could trigger a pullback in Chinese stocks after the recent rally. Indeed, on Thursday U.S. President Donald Trump said an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods would be coming on March 4. Duties of 25% on Canada and Mexico would also be implemented on that date, he said. Stocks in Hong Kong and mainland China fell Friday on the news. JPMorgan’s stock recommendations for names to add included three Chinese real estate-related companies: U.S.-listed KE Holdings and China Resources Land and China Overseas Land and Investment (known as CR Land and Coli, respectively) both traded in Hong Kong. The investment firm rates all three stocks overweight. KE Holdings operates a major brokerage for apartment rentals and home sales in China. CR Land and Coli are two state-owned companies that develop and manage residential and commercial properties in China. “In the coming weeks, we anticipate that Defensive and Value may outperform Growth and that A-shares may outperform offshore listed China/HK equity indices while the market debates downside related to the new” America First Investment Policy, JPMorgan’s chief China equity strategist Wendy Liu and a team wrote in the report. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was down 2.3% for the week after hitting a three-year high Thursday. The CSI 300 index of major Shanghai and Shenzhen-listed stocks fell 2.2% for the week. “We believe China is the real focus of the Trump administration and posit that a significant worsening of tensions between the worlds’ two largest economies might be inevitable,” Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, said in a note Thursday afternoon Beijing time. “While markets currently appear to be ignoring these risks, they could come to the forefront in coming months,” he said. The new America First Investment Policy has also caught analysts’ attention for its revived focus on Chinese companies with alleged Chinese military affiliations, and on an audit dispute that recently threatened the delisting of Chinese stocks in the U.S. That issue was resolved temporarily in late 2022. “Rising U.S. policy uncertainty, including tariff risks, underscores the importance of [China] delivering forceful macro policy stimulus, boosting private sector confidence, and aiding high-quality and tech (AI) development,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a Feb. 25 note. In a separate report the following day, the analysts detailed several stock baskets, including one for Asia Pacific ex-Japan domestic consumption that could benefit from additional support due out at China’s so-called Two Sessions that kicks off in the week ahead. The top three Chinese names by basket weight, at 10% each, are Meituan Dianping , Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba and its rival PDD Holdings . Hong Kong-listed Meituan Dianping operates apps for food delivery, discovering nearby attractions and getting restaurant deals. The Goldman basket picked Alibaba’s Hong Kong-traded shares, while Pinduoduo and Temu parent PDD trades in the U.S. Coincidentally, analysis from HSBC found that while U.S. investors have the largest positions in Alibaba, Tencent and Meituan, most of the positions are via U.S. mutual funds and are not affected by the White House’s latest policy focus on investments by government pensions and endowment funds. Despite looming U.S. tensions, China’s economic outlook will be front and center in the week ahead. On Wednesday, China is expected to officially raise the deficit and detail stimulus plans , but acknowledge weaker domestic demand with the softest inflation outlook in just over 20 years. The moves follow a high-level directive in September to halt the property sector’s decline. Macquarie’s chief China economist Larry Hu shared Friday three positive signals for the housing market with growing hopes for a bottom this year. He pointed out that housing inventories are due to return to normal levels by the end of the year, while policymakers keen on stopping the decline now seem willing to bail out Vanke, a major developer. In addition, Hu said that rental yields are starting to climb above that of China’s 10-year government bond yield, making housing more attractive relative to other long-term assets. Foreign capital is starting to act on new Chinese real estate investment opportunities, particularly given a Beijing policy push to increase rental housing . Invesco last week announced its real estate investment arm formed a joint venture with Ziroom, a Chinese company known locally for its standardized, modern-style apartment rentals. Part of the opportunity comes from how traditional developers are less financially able to participate right now, Calvin Chou, head of APAC, Invesco Real Estate, said in an interview. “We think there’s a good runway here.” The joint venture, called Izara Holdings, plans to initially invest 1.2 billion yuan (about $160 million) in a 1,500-room rental housing development near one of the sites for Beijing’s Winter Olympics, with a targeted opening of 2027. Ziroom’s digital system allows the company to quickly assess regional factors to improve operational efficiency of the rental units and control investment risks, Ziroom Asset Management CEO Meng Yue said in a statement, adding that joint venture plans to tap not only a new stage of China’s real estate market, but eventually overseas markets. Ziroom is privately held. It’s a client of KE Holdings, which disclosed in annual reports that it has sold online marketing and agency services to Ziroom. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
Smart robotic arms work on the production line at the production workshop of Changqing Auto Parts Co., LTD., located in Anqing Economic Development Zone, Anhui Province, China, on March 13, 2025. (Photo by Costfoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
BEIJING — China missed several key targets from its 10-year plan to become self-sufficient in technology, while fostering unhealthy industrial competition which worsened global trade tensions, the European Chamber of Commerce in China said in a report this week.
When Beijing released its “Made in China 2025” plan in 2015, it was met with significant international criticism for promoting Chinese business at the expense of their foreign counterparts. The country subsequently downplayed the initiative, but has doubled-down on domestic tech development given U.S. restrictionsin the last several years.
Since releasing the plan,China has exceeded its targets on achieving domestic dominance in autos, but the country has not yet reached its targets in aerospace, high-end robots and the growth rate of manufacturing value-added, the business chamber said, citing its research and discussions with members. Out of ten strategic sectors identified in the report, China only attained technological dominance in shipbuilding, high-speed rail and electric cars.
China’s targets are generally seen as a direction rather than an actual figure to be achieved by a specific date. The Made In China 2025 plan outlines the first ten years of what the country called a ‘multi-decade strategy’ to become a global manufacturing powerhouse.
The chamber pointed out that China’s self-developed airplane, the C919, still relies heavily on U.S. and European parts and though industrial automation levels have “increased substantially,” it is primarily due to foreign technology. In addition, the growth rate of manufacturing value add reached 6.1% in 2024, falling from the 7% rate in 2015 and just over halfway toward reaching the target of 11%.
“Everyone should consider themselves lucky that China missed its manufacturing growth target,” Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, told reporters Tuesday, since the reverse would have exacerbated pressure on global competitors. “They didn’t fulfill their own target, but I actually think they did astoundingly well.”
Even at that slower pace, China has transformed itself over the last decade to drive 29% of global manufacturing value add — almost the same as the U.S. and Europe combined, Eskelund said. “Before 2015, in many, many categoriesChina was not a direct competitor of Europe and the United States.”
The U.S. in recent years has sought to restrict China’s access to high-end tech, and encourage advanced manufacturing companies to build factories in America.
The U.S. restrictions have “pushed us to make things that previously we would not have thought we had to buy,” said Lionel M. Ni, founding president of the Guangzhou campus of the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. That’s according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin-language remarks to reporters on Wednesday.
Ni said the products requiring home-grown development efforts included chips and equipment, and if substitutes for restricted items weren’t immediately available, the university would buy the second-best version available.
In addition to thematic plans, China issues national development priorities every five years. The current 14th five-year plan emphasizes support for the digital economy and wraps up in December. The subsequent 15th five-year plan is scheduled to be released next year.
China catching up
It remains unclear to what extent China can become completely self-sufficient in key technological systems in the near term. But local companies have made rapid strides.
“Western chip export controls have had some success in that they briefly set back China’s developmental efforts in semiconductors, albeit at some cost to the United States and allied firms,” analysts at the Washington, D.C.,-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in a report this week. However, they noted that China has only doubled down, “potentially destabilizing the U.S. semiconductor ecosystem.”
For example, the thinktank pointed out, Huawei’s current generation smartphone, the Pura 70 series, incorporates 33 China-sourced components and only 5 sourced from outside of China.
Huawei reported a 22% surge in revenue in 2024 — the fastest growth since 2016 — buoyed by a recovery in its consumer products business.The company spent 20.8% of its revenue on research and development last year, well above its annual goal of more than 10%.
Overall, China manufacturers reached the nationwide 1.68% target for spending on research and development as a percentage of operating revenue, the EU Chamber report said.
“‘Europe needs to take a hard look at itself,” Eskelund said, referring to Huawei’s high R&D spend. “Are European companies doing what is needed to remain at the cutting edge of technology?”
However, high spending doesn’t necessarily mean efficiency.
The electric car race in particular has prompted a price war, with most automakers running losses in their attempt to undercut competitors. The phenomenon is often called “neijuan” or “involution” in China.
“We also need to realize [China’s] success has not come without problems,” Eskelund said. “We are seeing across a great many industries it has not translated into healthy business.”
He added that the attempt to fulfill “Made in China 2025” targets contributed to involution, and pointed out that China’s efforts to move up the manufacturing value chain from Christmas ornaments to high-end equipment have also increased global worries about security risks.
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Such fierce competition compounds the impact of already slowing economic growth. Out of 2,825 mainland China-listed companies, 20% reported a loss for the first time in 2024, according to a CNBC analysis of Wind Information data as of Thursday. Including companies that reported yet another year of losses, the share of companies that lost money last year rose to nearly 48%, the analysis showed.
China in March emphasized that boosting consumption is its priority for the year, after previously focusing on manufacturing. Retail sales growth have lagged behind industrial production on a year-to-date basis since the beginning of 2024, according to official data accessed via Wind Information.
Policymakers are also looking for ways to ensure “a better match between manufacturing output and what the domestic market can absorb,” Eskelund said, adding that efforts to boost consumption don’t matter much if manufacturing output grows even faster.
But when asked about policies that could address manufacturing overcapacity, he said, “We are also eagerly waiting in anticipation.”
Check out the companies making headlines before the bell: Hertz — Shares of the rental car company soared nearly 16%, extending the gains seen in the previous session. On Wednesday, the stock skyrocketed more than 56% after Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square disclosed that it had taken a sizable stake in the name. UnitedHealth — The stock plunged more than 19% after the insurer’s first-quarter results missed analysts’ estimates. UnitedHealth reported adjusted earnings of $7.20 per share on revenue of $109.58 billion, below the $7.29 in earnings per share and $111.60 billion that analysts surveyed by LSEG were looking for. The company also slashed its full-year guidance . Eli Lilly — The pharmaceutical stock surged 11% after phase-three trial results for a pill to treat weight loss and diabetes showed positive results. Taiwan Semiconductor — U.S. shares jumped more than 3% after the chipmaker’s results for the first quarter topped Wall Street’s expectations. The company also maintained its 2025 revenue forecast, noting that it has not yet seen any changes in customer behavior despite there being “uncertainties and risks from the potential impact of tariff policies.” D.R. Horton — The homebuilding stock fell more than 3% on the heels of the company posting weaker-than-expected second-quarter results. D.R. Horton earned $2.58 per share, while analysts had expected earnings of $2.63 per share, according to LSEG. Revenue of $7.73 billion also missed the consensus estimate of $8.03 billion. Alcoa — Shares dropped more than 2% after the company’s revenue of $3.37 billion for the first quarter missed expectations, with analysts calling for $3.53 billion, per LSEG. Earnings, however, came in better than expected. — CNBC’s Jesse Pound contributed reporting.
Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading: Alphabet — Shares of the megacap technology name pulled back 1.2% after a federal judge ruled that Google has illegally monopolized online advertising technology , namely the markets for publisher ad servers and ad exchanges. Hertz — The rental car company surged 50% to a 52-week high, following a 56% rally in the previous session, after Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square took a sizable stake . A regulatory filing revealed Pershing Square had built a 4.1% position as of the end of 2024. Pershing has significantly increased the position — to 19.8% — through shares and swaps, becoming Hertz’s second-largest shareholder, CNBC reported. Nvidia , Advanced Micro Devices — Shares of Nvidia dipped nearly 3% and AMD declined 1%, continuing their declines from the previous session when the chipmakers announced additional charges tied to China exports due to President Donald Trump’s tariff plans. Global Payments , Fidelity National Information Services — Global Payments announced it is acquiring Worldpay for $24.25 billion from Fidelity National Information Services and a private equity firm, and divesting its Issuer Solutions business. Shares of Global Payments fell 16%, while Fidelity National Information Services jumped 8.6%. Taiwan Semiconductor — U.S. shares jumped more than 1% after the chipmaker’s results for the first quarter topped Wall Street’s expectations. The company also maintained its 2025 revenue forecast, noting that it has not yet seen any changes in customer behavior despite there being “uncertainties and risks from the potential impact of tariff policies.” UnitedHealth — Shares of the insurer plummeted about 22% on the back of disappointing first-quarter results. UnitedHealth reported adjusted earnings of $7.20 per share on revenue of $109.58 billion, falling short of the $7.29 in earnings per share and $111.60 billion that analysts surveyed by LSEG called for. The company also slashed its full-year guidance . Eli Lilly — The pharmaceutical stock jumped 16% after Eli Lilly said its daily obesity pill showed positive results in its late-stage trials. Weight loss data, along with rates of side effects and treatment discontinuations, from the experimental pill — called orforglipron — came out in line with what some Wall Street analysts were expecting. The pill fell short of some analysts’ estimates for a key diabetes metric. Alcoa — The stock shed nearly 5% after Alcoa, one of the world’s largest aluminum producers, reported first-quarter revenue of $3.37 billion, which fell short of the forecast $3.53 billion from analysts polled by LSEG. Alcoa’s earnings came out better than expected. D.R. Horton — The homebuilding stock gained 3% despite posting weaker-than-expected second-quarter results. D.R. Horton reported earnings of $2.58 per share, while analysts had expected earnings of $2.63 per share, according to LSEG. The company’s revenue of $7.73 billion came out below the consensus $8.03 billion estimate. — CNBC’s Sean Conlon and Yun Li contributed reporting.