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Who benefits from Trump Tax Cuts and Jobs Act extension

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Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) leaves after the House passed Republicans’ budget resolution on the spending bill on Feb. 25, 2025 in Washington.

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As Congress debates how to handle trillions of dollars in expiring tax breaks, lawmakers on both sides have been lobbing claims about which consumers will see the biggest benefits from extending them. Economists and tax experts say the answer isn’t so straightforward.

In short: Who benefits depends on your frame of reference.

House Republicans passed a budget plan Tuesday that lays the groundwork to extend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, a package of tax cuts enacted in 2017 during President Trump’s first term.

Many of the cuts for individual taxpayers will expire after 2025 unless Congress acts — and the GOP can do this with a simple majority vote in Congress by using a special legislative maneuver called budget reconciliation.

Rep. Richard Neal, D-Mass., ranking member of the House Ways and Means tax committee, said Wednesday that Republicans’ policy plan — central to which is an extension of the Trump tax cuts, estimated to cost more than $4 trillion — amounts to a “reverse Robin Hood scam” that gives to the rich and takes from the poor.

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Meanwhile, Republicans say low- and middle-income households stand to win under the plan.

“Extending the Trump tax cuts delivers the biggest relief to working-class Americans and small businesses in a generation,” Rep. Jason Smith, R-Missouri, chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, said Tuesday.

Experts say both sides’ arguments have merit.

“The interesting thing is both can be true, depending on how you interpret what they’re saying,” said James Hines, a law and economics professor at the University of Michigan and research director in its Office of Tax Policy Research.

The Trump law cut taxes for most people

President Trump speaks about the passage of tax reform legislation on the South Lawn of the White House on Dec. 20, 2017.

Saul Loeb | Afp | Getty Images

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act lowered taxes for most U.S. households, experts said.

The legislation was broad, benefiting Americans across the income spectrum — which is broadly consistent with Republicans’ claims, they said.

Changes like a larger child tax credit and an expanded standard deduction cut income taxes for many low and middle earners, while lower marginal tax rates and tax deductions for business owners largely helped the wealthy, experts said.

If TCJA provisions are extended, 62% of tax filers would see lower tax bills in 2026, compared to if the measures expire, according to the Tax Foundation. (Put another way, many people’s tax bills would increase next year without an extension.)

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With those provisions in place, Americans would get a 2.9% boost in income after taxes in 2026, on average, according to the Tax Foundation. Income would rise by 3.4% if factoring in broader impacts of the tax cut on the U.S. economy, it said.

A U.S. Treasury Department report issued in the waning days of the Biden administration had a similar finding: The average person would get a 2.2% tax cut by extending the Trump law. (Its estimate is for the 2025 budget year.)

All income groups would get a boost in after-tax income, Treasury said.

The rich are the ‘biggest winners’

U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), joined by Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-CA) and Rep. Katherine Clark (D-MA), delivers remarks after the House passed Republicans’ budget resolution on the spending bill on Feb. 25, 2025.

Kayla Bartkowski | Getty Images News | Getty Images

However, with an extension, the largest tax cuts would accrue to the highest-income families, Treasury said.

Household in the top 5% — who earn over $450,000 a year, roughly — are the “biggest winners,” according to a July 2024 analysis by the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. They’d get over 45% of the benefits of extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, it said.

A Penn Wharton Budget Model analysis on the impacts of the broad Republican tax plan had a similar finding.

The bottom 80% of income earners would get 29% of the total value of proposed tax cuts in 2026, according to the Wharton analysis, issued Thursday. The top 10% would get 56% of the value, it said.

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This dynamic speaks to Democrats’ arguments, especially when coupled with possible spending cuts for programs like Medicaid and food stamps. Such programs largely benefit lower earners.

Wharton estimates that the combination of tax cuts and spending reductions for programs like Medicaid and food stamps would leave “low-income households worse off,” even after accounting for economic growth.

Some tax analysts view after-tax income as among the best frames of reference to assess policy impact, because it estimates how much a household’s buying power improves. Others disagree, however, saying it’s hard to control for other economic variables that might alter income.

The top 1% of households (who make about $1 million or more a year) would get a 3.2% boost in after-tax income in 2027 via an extension of the Trump law, the Tax Policy Center said. In dollar terms, their tax savings would be about $70,000, on average.

By comparison, middle-income households, would get a 1.3% income boost, or a $1,000 tax cut, according to the Tax Policy Center.

The rich ‘pay most of the taxes’

In a sense, this dynamic is to be expected because the U.S. income-tax system is progressive, experts said. That means high earners generally shoulder more of the overall tax burden than low earners.

“If you ask, ‘Who gets the dollars,’ it’s mostly rich taxpayers,” said Hines of the University of Michigan. “But that’s because it’s a tax cut and they pay most of the taxes.”

The top 1% paid 40% of all U.S. income taxes collected in 2022, according to a recent Tax Foundation analysis. The bottom 90% paid about a quarter — 28% — of total income tax.

“Democrats say most of the tax dollars went to the rich: They’re absolutely correct,” Hines said.

However, the TCJA cut taxes more for working families than rich families on a proportional basis, a White House spokesperson said.

Experts agreed with that assessment.

“Republicans say, ‘But the cuts were not slanted to the rich compared to how much people were paying originally,” which is also generally correct, Hines said.

President Donald Trump holds up a copy of legislation he signed before before signing the tax reform bill into law in the Oval Office Dec. 22, 2017.

Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images News | Getty Images

For example, the bottom 50% of Americans saw their average federal tax rate fall by 15% from 2017 to 2018, after the Trump tax cut took effect, according to the Tax Foundation. (Their rate fell to 3.4% from 4%.)

By contrast, the top 1% saw their average rate decline by a lesser percentage (about 5%) during that period, to 25.4% from 26.8%.

“The reason why the debate is so fractured is there are elements of truth to both sides,” said Garrett Watson, director of policy analysis at the Tax Foundation. “It’s a battle of metrics, and what weight to place on each of them.”

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Student loan defaults may spike under Senate GOP plan, expert says

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Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., leaves the senate luncheons in the U.S. Capitol on Tuesday, June 3, 2025.

Tom Williams | CQ-Roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

Senate Republicans’ proposal to overhaul student loan repayment could trigger a surge in defaults, one expert said.

The Senate GOP reconciliation bill’s higher education provisions “would cause widespread harm to American families,” Sameer Gadkaree, the president of The Institute for College Access & Success, said in a statement. The proposals do so by “making student debt much harder to repay” and “unleashing an avalanche of student loan defaults,” he wrote.

The Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions introduced bill text on June 10 that would change how millions of new borrowers pay down their debt. The proposal made only minor tweaks to the repayment terms in the legislation House Republicans advanced in May.

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With control of Congress, Republicans can pass their legislation using “budget reconciliation,” which needs only a simple majority in the Senate.

Gadkaree and other consumer advocates have expressed concerns about how the new terms would imperil many borrowers’ ability to meet their monthly bills — and to ever get out of their debt.

More than 42 million Americans hold student loans, and collectively, outstanding federal education debt exceeds $1.6 trillion. More than 5 million borrowers were in default as of late April, and that total could swell to roughly 10 million borrowers within a few months, according to the Trump administration.

Borrowers may be in repayment for 30 years

Currently, borrowers have about a dozen plan options to repay their student debt, according to higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

But under the Senate Republican proposal, there would be just two repayment plan choices for those who borrow federal student loans after July 1, 2026. (Current borrowers should maintain access to other existing repayment plans.)

As of now, borrowers who enroll in the standard repayment plan typically get their debt divided into 120 fixed payments, over 10 years. But the Republicans’ new standard plan would provide borrowers fixed payments over a period between 10 years and 25 years, depending on how much they owe.

For example, those with a balance exceeding $50,000 would be in repayment for 15 years; if you owe over $100,000, your fixed payments will last for 25 years.

Borrowers would also have an option of enrolling in an income-based repayment plan, known as the “Repayment Assistance Plan,” or RAP.

Monthly bills for borrowers on RAP would be set as a share of their income. Payments would typically range from 1% to 10% of a borrower’s income; the more they earn, the bigger their required payment. There would be a minimum payment of $10 a month for all borrowers.

While IDR plans now conclude in loan forgiveness after 20 years or 25 years, RAP wouldn’t lead to debt erasure until 30 years.

The plan would offer borrowers some new perks, including a $50 reduction in the required monthly payment per dependent.

Still, Kantrowitz said: “Many low-income borrowers will be in repayment under RAP for the full 30-year duration.”

Loan payments could cost an extra $2,929 a year

A typical student loan borrower with a college degree could pay an extra $2,929 per year if the Senate GOP proposal of RAP is enacted, compared to the Biden administration’s now blocked SAVE plan, according to a recent analysis by the Student Borrower Protection Center.

The Center included the calculations in a June 11 letter to the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions.

Student loan default collection restarting

“As the Committee considers this legislation, it is clear that a vote for this bill is a vote to saddle millions of borrowers across the country with more student loan debt, at the same moment that a slowing economy, a reckless trade war, and spiraling costs of living squeeze working families from every direction,” Mike Pierce, the executive director of the Center, wrote in the letter.

GOP: Bill helps those who ‘chose not to go to college’

Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., chair of the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee, said the proposal would stop requiring that taxpayers who didn’t go to college foot the loan payments for those with degrees.

“Biden and Democrats unfairly attempted to shift student debt onto taxpayers that chose not to go to college,” Cassidy said in a statement.

Cassidy said his party’s legislation would save taxpayers at least $300 billion.

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The second-quarter estimated tax deadline for 2025 is June 16

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The second-quarter estimated tax deadline is June 16 — and on-time payments can help you avoid “falling behind” on your balance, according to the IRS.

Typically, quarterly payments apply to income without tax withholdings, such as earnings from self-employment, freelancing or gig economy work. You may also owe payments for interest, dividends, capital gains or rental income. 

The U.S. tax system is “pay-as-you-go,” meaning the IRS expects you to pay taxes as you earn income. If your taxes are not withheld from earnings, you must pay the IRS directly.  

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The quarterly tax deadlines for 2025 are April 15, June 16, Sept. 15 and Jan. 15, 2026. These dates don’t line up with calendar quarters and so can easily be missed, experts said.

The second-quarter deadline in particular “often sneaks up on people,” especially higher earners or business owners with irregular income, said certified financial planner Nathan Sebesta, owner of Access Wealth Strategies in Artesia, New Mexico.

“I often see clients forget capital gains, side income, or large distributions that were not subject to withholding,” Sebesta said.

Quarterly payments are due for individuals, sole proprietors, partners and S corporation shareholders who expect to owe at least $1,000 for the current tax year, according to the IRS. The threshold is $500 for corporations. 

Avoid ‘underpayment penalties’

If you skip the June 16 deadline, you could see an interest-based penalty based on the current interest rate and how much you should have paid. That penalty compounds daily.

On-time quarterly payments can help avoid “possible underpayment penalties,” the IRS said in an early June news release. 

Employer withholdings are considered evenly paid throughout the year. By comparison, quarterly payments have set time frames and deadlines, said CFP Laurette Dearden, director of wealth management for Dearden Financial Services in Laurel, Maryland.

“This is why a penalty often occurs,” said Dearden, who is also a certified public accountant.

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How credit cycling works and why it’s risky

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There are all sorts of ways for consumers to misuse credit cards, from failing to pay monthly bills in full to running up your balance. But here’s one risky behavior that experts say you likely haven’t heard of: “credit cycling.”

Credit cards come with a spending limit. Cardholders are usually aware of this limit, which represents the overall cap to how much they can borrow. The limit resets with each billing statement when users pay their bill in full and on time.

Users who credit-cycle will reach that limit and quickly pay down their balance; this frees up more headroom so consumers can effectively charge beyond their typical allowance.

Doing this occasionally is usually not a big deal, experts said. It’s akin to driving a few miles per hour over the speed limit — something less likely to get a driver pulled over for speeding, said Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at CreditCards.com.

But consistently “churning” through available credit comes with risks, Rossman said.

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For example, card issuers may cancel a user’s card and take away their reward points, experts said. This might negatively impact a user’s credit score, they said.

“If there’s even the slightest chance credit cycling can go sideways, it’s best not to do it and look for alternatives,” said Bruce McClary, senior vice president at the National Foundation for Credit Counseling. “You have to be very careful.”

Card companies see credit cycling as a risk

The average American’s credit card limit was about $34,000 at the end of the second quarter of 2024, according to Experian, one the three major credit bureaus. (This was the limit across all their cards.)

The amount varies across generations, and according to factors like income and credit usage, according to Experian.

It’s understandable why some consumers would want to credit cycle, experts said.

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Certain consumers may have a relatively low credit limit, and credit cycling might help them pay for a big-ticket purchase like a home repair, wedding or a costly vacation, experts said. Others may do it to accelerate the rewards and points they get for making purchases, they said.

But card issuers would likely see repeat offenders as a red flag, Rossman said.

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Maxing out a card frequently may run afoul of certain terms and conditions, or signal that a user is experiencing financial difficulty and struggling to stay within their budget, he said.

Issuers may also view it as a potential sign of illegal activity like money laundering, he said.

“You could be putting yourself at risk by appearing to be a risk in that way,” McClary said.

Credit cycling consequences

Further, a card company could flag misuse as a reason for the account closure, potentially making the user look like more of a risk to future creditors, he added.

Consistently butting up against one’s credit limit also increases the chances of accidentally breaching that threshold, McClary said. Doing so could lead creditors to charge over-limit fees or raise a user’s interest rate, he said.

Consumers who credit-cycle should be cognizant of any recurring monthly subscriptions or other charges that might inadvertently push them over the limit, he said.

What to do instead

Instead of credit cycling, consumers may be better served by asking their card issuer for a higher credit limit, opening a new credit card account or spreading payments over more than one card, Rossman said.

As a general practice, Rossman is a “big fan” of paying down one’s credit card bill early, such as in the middle of the billing cycle instead of waiting for the end. (To be clear, this isn’t the same as credit cycling, since consumers wouldn’t be paying down their balance early in order to spend beyond their allotted credit.)

This can reduce a consumer’s credit utilization rate — and boost one’s credit score — since card balances are generally only reported to the credit bureaus at the end of the monthly billing cycle, he said.

“It can be a good way to improve your score, especially if you use your card a lot,” he said.

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