Finance

Deutsche Bank says the market sell-off has another 6% to go

Published

17 hours ago

March 17, 2025

The market sell-off is not over yet as consumer and corporate confidence take a dive on tariff uncertainty, according to Deutsche Bank. “We see the selloff in US equities as having further to go,” Binky Chadha, chief strategist at Deutsche Bank, wrote Saturday. “With trade policy uncertainty likely to continue to weigh, at least until April 2, we expect positioning to continue to unwind.” “A move to the bottom of the positioning band which is where it went to in the last trade war, would take the S & P 500 down to 5250,” Chadha added. The S & P 500 level highlighted by Chadha points to another 6.9% decline from Friday’s close of 5,638.94. The benchmark was last about 8% below the all-time high it reached just last month. .SPX YTD bar S & P 500 At the center of the strategist’s call are concerns of an economic slowdown amid tariff uncertainty that are unlikely to abate for at least the next several weeks. The latest earnings season showed CEOs are slashing capital expenditures and cutting their earnings forecasts. Chadha also expects the idea of a “Trump put” — in which the president will ease on his policies that have destabilized the market — will not be realized until a marked turn lower in Trump’s approval ratings. “Compared to the level of consumer confidence, the current approval rating is high, implying plenty of room for downside with negative growth or inflation developments likely to speed the catch down,” Chadha wrote. “We expect the net approval rating has to turn more significantly negative, at least -5%, before the administration starts to consider responding.” Still, Chadha — who held one of the more bullish outlooks heading into 2025 — said that it’s “too early to throw in the towel” on his year-end target of 7,000, a move that’s more than 24% higher from Friday’s close. He thinks stocks can bounce back sharply in the latter part of the year if there’s a resolution on tariff uncertainty. On Monday, at least, the broad index rose slightly as it tries to claw back its recent losses. The move came after the latest U.S. retail sales report showed consumers are still spending though at a slower pace than expected. “While the risks have grown, for now we maintain our year-end S & P 500 target of 7000,” he said.

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on March 14, 2025 in New York City.

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

The market sell-off is not over yet as consumer and corporate confidence take a dive on tariff uncertainty, according to Deutsche Bank.

“We see the selloff in US equities as having further to go,” Binky Chadha, chief strategist at Deutsche Bank, wrote Saturday. “With trade policy uncertainty likely to continue to weigh, at least until April 2, we expect positioning to continue to unwind.”

“A move to the bottom of the positioning band which is where it went to in the last trade war, would take the S&P 500 down to 5250,” Chadha added.

The S&P 500 level highlighted by Chadha points to another 6.9% decline from Friday’s close of 5,638.94. The benchmark was last about 8% below the all-time high it reached just last month.

S&P 500

At the center of the strategist’s call are concerns of an economic slowdown amid tariff uncertainty that are unlikely to abate for at least the next several weeks. The latest earnings season showed CEOs are slashing capital expenditures and cutting their earnings forecasts.

Chadha also expects the idea of a “Trump put” — in which the president will ease on his policies that have destabilized the market — will not be realized until a marked turn lower in Trump’s approval ratings.

“Compared to the level of consumer confidence, the current approval rating is high, implying plenty of room for downside with negative growth or inflation developments likely to speed the catch down,” Chadha wrote. “We expect the net approval rating has to turn more significantly negative, at least -5%, before the administration starts to consider responding.”

Still, Chadha — who held one of the more bullish outlooks heading into 2025 — said that it’s “too early to throw in the towel” on his year-end target of 7,000, a move that’s more than 24% higher from Friday’s close. He thinks stocks can bounce back sharply in the latter part of the year if there’s a resolution on tariff uncertainty.

On Monday, at least, the broad index rose slightly as it tries to claw back its recent losses. The move came after the latest U.S. retail sales report showed consumers are still spending though at a slower pace than expected.

“While the risks have grown, for now we maintain our year-end S&P 500 target of 7000,” he said.

Finance

Study shows how long Social Security, $1.5M nest egg would last in 50 states

Published

14 hours ago

March 17, 2025

Business Finance News

Ramsey Solutions financial expert George Kamel weighs in on Americans working past retirement age and provides advice for investors.

Retirement nest eggs and Social Security benefits are key sources of funds for many Americans as they live out their golden years in the state of their choosing.

A recently-released study from GOBankingRates looked at the financial runway that retirees would have in each state with Social Security benefits and $1.5 million socked away for retirement, finding West Virginia offered the most years before living costs would deplete their retirement savings.

The Mountain State ranked No. 1 with $1.5 million in retirement savings expected to sustain retirees there for a whopping 54 years while facing about $27,800 in living costs each year after Social Security benefits, according to the study.

The Social Security Administration (SSA) allows Americans to access their Social Security retirement benefits early starting at age 62, though payments “will be reduced a small percentage for each month before your full retirement age” if they do that, according to the SSA. One’s “full retirement age” depends on when a person was born.

SOCIAL SECURITY PAYMENTS TO INCREASE FOR PUBLIC PENSION RECIPIENTS

GOBankingRates said it used data from a slew of sources, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the SSA and Missouri Economic Research and Information Center, to determine its rankings of how states stack up in terms of the amount of time that Social Security and $1.5 million in retirement would last retirees residing in them.

Overall, the study indicated that those two sources of funds would provide different amounts of years of “financial security” for retirees in states across the country. States’ cost of living after Social Security ranged from $27,803 to $87,770 per year, it found.

401(K) BALANCES HIT SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD: FIDELITY

GoBankingRates found the number of years that $1.5 million and Social Security would sustain retirees in each state was:

West Virginia: 54 years ($27,803 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Charleston is the capital and largest city of the U.S. state of West Virginia. Slightly processed using HDR technique (iStock / iStock)

Kansas: 52 years ($28,945 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Mississippi: 51 years ($29,426 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Oklahoma: 51 years ($29,666 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Alabama: 50 years ($30,207 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Missouri: 50 years ($30,327 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Arkansas: 49 years ($30,237 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Tennessee: 49 years ($30,928 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Iowa: 48 years ($31,168 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Indiana: 47 years ($31,709 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Aerial view of Indianapolis downtown with Statehouse in Indiana (iStock / iStock)

Georgia: 47 years ($31,829 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

North Dakota: 47 years ($32,190 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Michigan: 46 years ($32,310 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

South Dakota: 46 years ($32,310 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Texas: 46 years ($32,490 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Nebraska: 46 years ($32,610 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Kentucky: 46 years ($32,670 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

New Mexico: 46 years ($32,670 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Louisiana: 45 years ($33,031 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

An aerial view of downtown Baton Rouge from the State Capitol building, looking towards the Mississippi bridge and river. (iStock / iStock)

Montana: 45 years ($33,331 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Ohio: 44 years ($33,827 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Pennsylvania: 44 years ($33,872 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

South Carolina: 44 years ($34,052 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Minnesota: 44 years ($34,113 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Wyoming: 44 years ($34,173 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Illinois: 44 years ($34,233 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

North Carolina: 42 years ($35,495 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Downtown Raleigh, North Carolina, USA Drone Skyline Aerial. (iStock / iStock)

Maryland: 41 years ($36,276 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Wisconsin: 41 years ($36,516 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Nevada: 41 years ($26,997 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Delaware: 40 years ($37,057 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Virginia: 40 years ($37,237 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Idaho: 39 years ($38,379 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Florida: 39 years ($38,379 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

WalletHub published a report on Monday that found the best U.S. states to retire in 2022. Florida was at the top of the list. Tallahassee, Florida, is pictured. (iStock)

Colorado: 39 years ($38,559 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Utah: 35 years ($42,645 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Oregon: 35 years ($42,945 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

New Hampshire: 34 years ($43,847 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Connecticut: 34 years ($43,967 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Rhode Island: 34 years ($44,387 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Arizona: 34 years ($44,628 post-Social Security cost of living per year

Maine: 33 years ($45,048 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Washington: 33 years ($45,108 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Vermont: 33 years ($45,409 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

New Jersey: 33 years ($45,829 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

The capital statehouse of New Jersey lights up as the sun sets the Delaware River in the background city of Trenton (iStock)

Alaska: 29 years ($50,997 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

New York: 29 years ($50,997 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

California: 24 years ($63,795 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Massachusetts: 23 years ($65,117 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

Hawaii: 17 years ($87,770 post-Social Security cost of living per year)

THIS MIDWESTERN STATE IS CONSIDERED ONE OF THE BEST PLACES TO RETIRE, NEW STUDY SAYS: SEE THE LIST

Finance

Stocks making the biggest moves midday: INTC, TSLA, AFRM, HOOD

Published

16 hours ago

March 17, 2025

Business Finance News

Finance

Buffett hikes stakes in five Japanese trading houses to almost 10% each

Published

20 hours ago

March 17, 2025

Business Finance News

Warren Buffett speaks during the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, on May 4, 2024.

CNBC

Warren Buffett’s love for Japanese stocks grows fonder even as he increasingly sells U.S. equities.

The 94-year-old investor’s Berkshire Hathaway holding company raised its holdings in five Japanese trading houses — Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui and Sumitomo — by more than 1 percentage point each, to stakes ranging from 8.5% to 9.8%, according to a regulatory filing.

The “Oracle of Omaha” said in his 2024 annual letter that Berkshire is committed to its Japanese investments for the long term and has reached an agreement with the companies to go beyond an initial 10% ceiling.

All five are the biggest “sogo shosha,” or trading houses, in Japan that invest across diverse sectors domestically and abroad — “in a manner somewhat similar to Berkshire itself,” Buffett said. Berkshire first bought into the companies in the summer of 2019.

Part of the investment strategy involves Buffett hedging currency risk by selling Japanese debt and then pocketing the difference between dividends from the investments and the bond coupon payments he has to make to service the debt.

At the end of 2024, the market value of Berkshire’s Japanese holdings came to $23.5 billion, at an aggregate cost of $13.8 billion. The investor praised the companies’ managements, relationships with their investors and their capital deployment strategies.

Buffett first unveiled the Japanese positionsd on his 90th birthday in August 2020 after making regular purchases on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, saying he was “confounded” by the opportunity and was attracted to the trading houses’ dividend growth.

In 2023, Buffett even paid a visit to Japan with his designated successor Greg Abel and met with the heads of the Japanese firms. He said he’d like Berkshire to own the companies forever.

The student of famed investor Benjamin Graham has been aggressively selling U.S. stocks and growing his record cash pile to $334 billion. Berkshire sold more than $134 billion worth of stocks in 2024, largely by shrinking the size of Berkshire’s two largest equity holdings — Apple and Bank of America.