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The Federal Reserve continues pause on interest rate cuts, expects two cuts later this year

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Rates remained unchanged after the Fed meeting.  (iStock)

The Federal Reserve just met to discuss the possibility of interest rate cuts. This time around, the Fed decided to extend the rate pause, leaving rates in the 4.25% to 4.5% range. The decision came due to stable economic activity that’s expected to grow in the first quarter. Economists largely expected this outcome. 

“The Fed is going to keep rates where they are today,” predicted Melissa Cohn, regional vice president of William Raveis Mortgage. “[Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell] has repeatedly said that the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates. The Trump administration’s tariffs could reignite inflation, making future rate cuts unlikely, too.”

Although the Fed noted that inflation remains elevated, the unemployment rate has stabilized, and labor markets are still solid. To inch the economy closer to 2% inflation levels, the Fed ultimately decided to leave rates where they were.

“While the economic activity in the first quarter economy is still on track to report growth, American households are increasingly concerned with potential re-inflation, their job security and financial outlook, which is holding them back from making major expenditures,” Dr. Selma Hepp, CoreLogic chief economist, said in a statement. “At the same time, many are still catching up with inflation in housing and related services of the last few years.”

Despite a slowly growing economy, consumers aren’t entirely confident in the economic situation. A variety of social and political actions are still impacting American households. Newly implemented tariffs are one of the factors contributing to this uncertainty.

“The Federal Reserve’s war in fighting stubborn inflation continues to impact the day-to-day lives of American households,” explained Anya Gezunterman, director at Imperial Fund Asset Management, in a statement. “On top of this, the Fed now has to look closely at any tariff-related price increases, which would also keep interest rates higher for longer.”

“That said, as the economy seems to continue its so-called ‘soft landing,’ we expect mortgage rates to drift lower through the summer gradually, but not by more than a percentage point,” said Gezunterman.

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INFLATION EASES IN FEBRUARY, BUT TRUMP TARIFFS COULD DERAIL PROGRESS

Two more rate cuts are predicted by the end of the year

Rates remained unchanged after the Fed meeting, but they signaled that two rate cuts would happen this year. Economists largely agree that consumers will see cuts shortly. Analysts from Barclays expect two quarter-point rate cuts, likely in June and September. They previously believed there would be just one cut in June.

“The softer labor market causes us to add another rate cut, despite higher inflation,” Barclays analysts said.

Barclay predicts a slowing labor market will raise the unemployment rate later in the year, with unemployment peaking at 4.3% in October.

The first rate cut in June is expected to “reflect [this] slower growth and rising unemployment.” The second rate cut in September is expected to indicate “a rising unemployment rate and some signs of improvement in monthly inflation prints.”

You can take out a personal loan before future rate hikes to help pay down high-interest debt. Credible can help you find your personal loan rate without affecting your credit score.

MORTGAGE RATES HIT A TWO-MONTH LOW THIS WEEK, REMAIN UNDER 7%

Consumer confidence has dropped substantially in the last month

Many consumers don’t see the economy as stable, as made apparent by the Consumer Confidence Survey. Consumer Confidence measures the way Americans feel about business and economic conditions.

The Present Situation Index fell by 3.4 points to 136.5 in February, while the Expectations Index also dropped 9.3 points to 72.9. Below 80 on the Index typically signals a recession on the horizon. It’s the first time the Index has been this low since June 2024.

“In February, consumer confidence registered the largest monthly decline since August 2021,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “This is the third consecutive month-on-month decline, bringing the Index to the bottom of the range that has prevailed since 2022…Views of current labor market conditions weakened. Consumers became pessimistic about future business conditions and less optimistic about future income. Pessimism about future employment prospects worsened and reached a ten-month-high.”

More people did plan to purchase homes, showing one area of improvement. The very recent decline in mortgage rates is likely why homebuyers are more willing to buy. Car buying plans declined, however, as did plans to make bigger purchases, like TVs and other electronics.

“Average 12-month inflation expectations surged from 5.2% to 6% in February. This increase likely reflected a mix of factors, including sticky inflation, but also the recent jump in prices of key household staples like eggs and the expected impact of tariffs,” Guichard said. “There was a sharp increase in the mentions of trade and tariffs, back to a level unseen since 2019.”

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SENIORS TO GET MODERATE COST OF LIVING BUMP IN SOCIAL SECURITY PAYMENTS NEXT YEAR

Have a finance-related question, but don’t know who to ask? Email The Credible Money Expert at [email protected] and your question might be answered by Credible in our Money Expert column.

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Investor Ric Edelman reacts to crypto ETF boom

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Ric Edelman cuts through crypto confusion specifically for the long-term investor

Bitcoin’s milestone week comes as new crypto exchange-traded funds are hitting the market.

Investor and best-selling personal finance author Ric Edelman thinks the rollout gives investors more access to upside.

He finds buffer ETFs and yield ETFs particularly exciting.

“You can now invest in bitcoin ETFs that protect you against the downside volatility while preserving your ability to enjoy the upside profits,” Edelman told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week.” You can generate massive amounts of yield, much more than you can in the stock market.”

Edelman is the founder of the Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals, which educates financial advisors on cryptocurrencies. He is also in Barron’s Financial Advisor Hall of Fame.

“Crypto is meant to be a long-term hold, just like the stock market,” said Edelman. “It’s meant to diversify the portfolio.”

His thoughts came as a bitcoin rally got underway. The cryptocurrency crossed $100,000 on Thursday for the first time since February. As of Friday’s close on Wall Street, bitcoin gained 6% this week. It is now up almost 10% so far this month.

However, Edelman sees problems when it comes to leverage and inverse bitcoin ETFs. He warned that not all crypto ETFs are appropriate for retail investors, suggesting most don’t understand how they work.

‘Same thing as buying a lottery ticket’

“These leveraged ETFs often have an assumption you’re going to hold the fund for a single day, a daily reset,” he said. “That’s literally the same thing as buying a lottery ticket. This isn’t investing.”

During the same interview, “ETF Edge” host Bob Pisani referenced 2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITX) as an example of a leveraged bitcoin product that includes daily fees and resets.

The fund is beating bitcoin this week, jumping more than 12%. So far this month, the ETF is up 19%. But the BITX is underperforming bitcoin this year. It is up about 1.5%, while bitcoin is up roughly 10%.

Volatility Shares is the ETF provider behind BITX.

The company writes on its website: “The Fund is not suitable for all investors … An investor in the Fund could potentially lose the full value of their investment within a single day.”

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America failing its young investors, warns financial guru Ric Edelman

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Legendary investor Ric Edelman on why financial literacy hasn't improved in a generation… and what can be done.

One of the most recognized names in personal finance is urging Americans to increase their financial literacy, and urging the country to do a better job of providing the education. 

“We spend a lot of time trying to improve financial literacy. We stink at it,” said Ric Edelman, founder of Edelman Financial Engines, on this week’s CNBC “ETF Edge.”

Edelman believes the problem is rooted in the fact the U.S. has never had a great tradition of encouraging smart personal finance, and he says it has never been more important to fix, given how long people are now living. That increases the risks related to running out of money later in life and creates serious questions about standard investing models for long-term financial security, such as the 60-40 stock and bond portfolio.

“We are the first generation, as baby boomers, that will live long lives as part of the norm,” Edelman said. “Everyone before us, our parents and grandparents mostly died in their 50s and 60s. You didn’t have to plan for the future, because you weren’t going to have one,” he added.

One of his biggest concerns with the current generation of young investors is that they seem to believe in get-rich-quick schemes. Many of the new investing websites have been too encouraging of risky strategies that lure young investors in, he says, promoting financial gambling rather than investing. Options and zero-day options have become a significant part of the daily trading landscape in the last several years. According to data from the New York Stock Exchange, the percent of retail traders participating in the options market approached the 50% mark in 2022. In 2024, options volume hit an all-time record.

Edelman says younger generations should be wary of a corporate America that makes consumer finance more complicated than it should be, which includes the manufacturing of overly sophisticated and expensive financial products. “They want to make it complex, to make you a hostage rather than a customer,” he said. 

He also cautions young investors to make sure they are getting information about personal finance from credible sources. “When so many are getting their financial education from TikTok, that’s a little scary,” he said.

Edelman believes the cards are stacked against young investors because of the lack of high schools mandating a course in personal finance. “The only way we discover the issues of money is through the school of hard knocks as adults, and we’re over our heads when it comes to buying a car, getting a mortgage, insurance and saving for college” he said. 

That situation is improving for the next generations of adults. Utah was the first state to require a personal finance course for high school graduation in 2004, and the list grew to include 11 states by 2021. As of this year, 27 states now require high school students to take a semester-long personal finance course for graduation, according to Next Gen Personal Finance. 

Another big challenge for young investors is they often don’t have a lot of money to invest, with many recent college graduates struggling to pay bills and left with little to put towards other financial goals. But there is at least one reason to be hopeful about younger Americans, Edelman says: they are highly motivated to reach financial success.

“Today’s youth looks at their parents and sees how poorly they were prepared for retirement. They don’t want that to be their future” he said.

ETF Edge: New crypto ETFs, 60/40 investing and bond ETFs

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Powell may have a hard time avoiding Trump’s ‘Too Late’ label even as Fed chief does the right thing

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U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 7, 2025.

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

History suggests that President Donald Trump’s new “Too Late” nickname for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has a strong chance of coming true, though he’d hardly be alone if it does.

After all, central bank leaders have a long history of being too reluctant to raise or lower interest rates.

Whether it was Arthur Burns keeping rates too low in the face of the stagflation threat during the 1970s, Alan Greenspan not responding quickly enough to the dotcom bubble in the ’90s, or Ben Bernanke’s dismissal of the subprime housing prices as “contained” and not lowering rates prior to the 2008 financial crisis, Fed leaders have long been criticized as slow to act absent compelling data showing them something needs to be done.

So some economists think Powell, faced with a unique set of challenges to the Fed’s twin goals of full employment and low inflation, has a strong chance of wearing the “Too Late” label.

In fact, many of them think nothing is exactly what Powell should do now.

“Historically, go back and look at any Federal Reserve, and I’m going back into the ’70s, the Fed is always late both ways,” said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade North America. “They tend to wait. They want to wait to make sure that they won’t make a mistake, and by the time they do that, usually it is too late. The economy is almost always in recession.”

The Fed will have to get back in the business of forecasting, says New Century's Claudia Sahm

However, he said that given the volatile policy mix, with Trump’s tariffs threatening both growth and inflation, Powell has little choice but to sit tight absent more clarity.

Powell is in a no-win situation, with threats to both sides of the Fed mandate, “and that’s why he’s doing the exact right thing at this moment, which is nothing, because one way or another it’s going to be a mistake,” North said.

Trump wants a cut

Though Trump said the economy probably will be fine no matter what the Fed does, he has been badgering the central bank lately to cut rates, insisting that inflation has been slayed.

In a Truth Social post after the Fed decision this week to keep rates unchanged, Trump declared that “Too Late’ Jerome Powell is a FOOL, who doesn’t have a clue.” The president declared there is “virtually NO INFLATION,” something that was true for March at least when the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge came in unchanged for the month.

However, the president’s tariffs have yet to be felt in the real economy, as they are barely a month old.

Recent economic data do not indicate price spikes nor a perceptible slowdown in economic activity. However, surveys are showing heightened worries in both the manufacturing and service sectors, while consumer sentiment has soured, and nearly 90% of S&P 500 companies mentioned tariff concerns on their quarterly earnings calls.

At this week’s post-meeting news conference, though, Powell repeatedly voiced confidence in what he called a “solid” economy and a labor market “consistent with maximum employment.”

No ‘pre-emptive’ cuts

The 72-year-old Fed chair also dismissed any idea of a pre-emptive rate cut, despite what sentiment survey data is indicating about current conditions.

“Powell offered two reasons for not being in a hurry. The first – ‘no real cost to waiting’ – is one he may live to regret,” Krishna Guha, head of global policy and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI, said in a client note. “The second – ‘we are not sure what the right thing will be’ – makes more sense.”

Powell has his own particular history of being late, with the Fed reluctant to hike when inflation began spiking in 2021. He and his colleagues labeled that episode “transitory,” a call that came back to haunt them when they had to institute a series of historically aggressive hikes that still have not brought inflation back to the central bank’s 2% target.

“If they’re waiting for the labor market to confirm whether they should cut rates, by definition they’re too late,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities and a senior economic advisor to Trump in his first term. “I don’t think the Fed is being forward-looking enough.”

Indeed, if the Fed is using the labor market as a guide, it almost certainly will be behind the curve. An old adage on Wall Street says, “the labor market is the last to know” when a recession is coming, and history has been fairly consistent that job losses generally don’t start until after a downturn has begun.

LaVorgna thinks the Fed is hamstrung by its own history and will miss this call as well, as policymakers unsuccessfully try to game out the impact of tariffs.

“We’re not going to know if it’s too late until it’s too late,” he said. “Economic history combined with current market pricing suggests there’s a real risk the Fed will be too late.”

Fed Chair Powell: I’ve never asked for a meeting with any president and I never will

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