Consumer attitude about both the present and near future dimmed again in April, as tariffs dented sentiment and confidence in employment hit levels last seen around the global financial crisis.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 86 on the month, down 7.9 points from its prior reading and below the Dow Jones estimate for 87.7.

However, the view of conditions further out deteriorated even more.

The board’s expectations index, which measures how respondents look at the next six months, tumbled to 54.4, a decline of 12.5 points and the lowest reading since October 2011. Board officials said the reading is consistent with a recession.

“The three expectation components — business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—all deteriorated sharply, reflecting pervasive pessimism about the future,” said Stephanie Guichard, the board’s senior economist for global indicator.

Guichard added that the confidence surveys overall were at “levels not seen since the onset of the Covid pandemic.”

Indeed, the level of respondents expecting employment to fall over the next six months hit 32.1%, “nearly as high as in April 2009, in the middle of the Great Recession,” Guichard added. That contraction lasted from December 2007 until June 2009. The level of respondents seeing jobs as “hard to get” rose to 16.6%, up half a percentage point from March, while those seeing jobs as “plentiful” fell to 31.7%, down from 33.6%.

Future income prospects also turned negative for the first time in five years.

The downbeat views extended to the stock market, with 48.5% expecting lower prices in the next 12 months, the worst reading since October 2011. Inflation expectations also surged, at 7% for the next year, the highest since November 2022.

Driving the pessimism was fear over tariffs, which reached an all-time high for the survey. Recession expectations hit a two-year high as well.

In related data Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employment postings in March fell to their lowest level since September 2024. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed 7.19 million positions, down from 7.48 million in February and below the Wall Street expectation of 7.5 million.

Government postings fell by 59,000 amid President Donald Trump’s efforts to pare down the federal workforce. Transportation, warehousing and utilities also saw a drop of 59,000.

The JOLTS survey showed hiring was little changed while layoffs fell by 222,000.

Sportswear giant Adidas on Tuesday said that U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs would result in price hikes for all its U.S. products.

The company said it did not yet know by how much it would boost prices, also noting that the global trade dispute was preventing it from raising its full-year outlook despite a bumper increase in first-quarter profits.

“Higher tariffs will eventually cause higher costs for all our products for the US market,” Adidas said in a statement.

The company said it was “somewhat exposed” to White House tariffs on Beijing — currently at an effective rate of 145% — but that it had already reduced exports of its China-made products to the U.S. to a minimum. However, it said the biggest impact was coming from the general increase in U.S. tariffs on all other countries, which are largely held at 10% while trade negotiations take place.

“Given the uncertainty around the negotiations between the US and the different exporting countries, we do not know what the final tariffs will be,” the Adidas statement continued.

“Therefore, we cannot make any ‘final’ decisions on what to do. Cost increases due to higher tariffs will eventually cause price increases, not only in our sector, but it is currently impossible to quantify these or to conclude what impact this could have on the consumer demand for our products.”

Adidas said it was currently unable to produce almost any of its products in the U.S.

The company, best-known for sneakers including Superstar, Sambas, Stan Smiths and Gazelles as well as sportswear, uses factories in countries including Vietnam and Cambodia — which are facing U.S. tariffs upwards of 40% in the absence of a trade deal.

A similar dilemma regarding price hikes and demand impact is facing almost all retail businesses which serve the U.S., from ultra-low-cost e-retailers like Temu to luxury giants such as Hermès.

Without the cloud of U.S. tariffs, Adidas would have raised its full-year outlook for revenues and operating profit due to a strong order book and positive brand sentiment, the company said. It instead reaffirmed its existing outlook, but said the “range of possible outcomes has increased.”

In results that were largely pre-released, net income from continuing operations leapt 155% in the first quarter to 436 million euros ($496.5 million), above the 383 million euros forecast in an LSEG-compiled consensus. Net sales climbed 12.7% to 6.15 billion euros as its operating margin rose 3.8 percentage points to 9.9%.

The firm has finally shaken off a years-long headache from its collaboration with controversial musician Ye, with whom it cut ties in 2022 over antisemitic comments. It announced last month it had sold the last of its Yeezy stock.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank said in a Tuesday note that Adidas delivered a “good print with the company making progress across all areas,” despite higher uncertainty.

“So far this year, Adidas has been seeing double digit sales growth across all regions and channels, with wholesale outperforming the direct-to-consumer offering,” Mamta Valechha, consumer discretionary analyst at Quilter Cheviot, said in a note.

“Footwear continues to be a strong performer, with consumers also opting for lifestyle clothing, while the performance category also continues to do well. Adidas will hope these trends continue in the face of the economic uncertainty created by tariffs in the US, but unfortunately we very much have to wait and see before the full impact comes through.”

The economic impact of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration will soon become apparent to everyday Americans and lead to a recession this summer, according to Apollo Global Management.

Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, laid out a timeline in a presentation for clients that showed when the impact of tariffs announced by President Donald Trump could hit the U.S. economy. Based on the transport time required for goods to China, U.S. consumers could start to notice trade-related shortages in their local stores next month, according to the presentation.

“The consequence will be empty shelves in US stores in a few weeks and Covid-like shortages for consumers and for firms using Chinese products as intermediate goods,” Slok wrote in a note to clients Friday.

The Trump administration has paused some of the tariffs announced on April 2, but has hiked duties even higher on China. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged Monday on “Squawk Box” that the current tariff standoff with Beijing is “unsustainable.” Levies on goods from China are now subject to a 145% rate.

China is not the only source of consumer goods, but it does have a large role in the U.S. economy. The U.S. imported $438.9 billion of goods from China in 2024, according to the Office of the United States Trade Representative, putting it right behind Mexico and above Canada on the list of trading partners by that metric.

While many on Wall Street are now saying that a recession for the U.S. is likely in 2025, Slok’s predictions are toward the more pessimistic side. Bessent has said the administration expects a “detox period” for the economy due to the trade negotiations but not necessarily a recession.

There is also some evidence of a “pull-forward” in orders from before the tariffs were announced, which could keep goods on the shelves for longer than the Apollo timelines sets out.

“Don’t expect empty shelves yet — [year to date] stock is still up, and demand is slowing,” Bernstein analyst Aneesha Sherman said in a note to clients Monday.

— CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.