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Wall Street sees fewer T-bills sold in April as tax season boosts US cash pile

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Wall Street strategists are expecting the Treasury to shrink its monthly cache of bills even more as the government’s cash pile swells with tax receipts pouring in. 

The annual rush to pay Uncle Sam means the Treasury doesn’t need to issue as much short-term debt as in other months to fund the U.S. government. The total amount collected this season is expected to be higher than in prior years due to higher incomes and a booming stock market. The department has already paid down about $149 billion of bills since the end of March, data show. 

Barclays Plc expects supply to drop by another $150 billion, according to its quarterly forecast, with the Treasury General Account peaking at around $1 trillion by the end of the month. JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists see an additional $116 billion reduction in T-bill supply over the coming three weeks, with risks of even larger reductions. It previously expected a $131 billion drop in short-dated government debt for all of April.

A Wall Street and Broad Street street sign in front of the New York Stock Exchange in New York
A Wall Street street sign in front of the New York Stock Exchange in New York

Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

“There are downside risks to these forecasts, as we might be underestimating the strength of upcoming tax receipts amid tight labor markets and strong asset performance last year,” JPMorgan strategists led by Jay Barry wrote in a Thursday note to clients. 

Two years ago, the Treasury collected nearly $600 billion in tax revenues due to an exuberant stock market and a powerful economic recovery, according to government figures. Those payments are deposited in the TGA, which functions like the government’s checking account at the central bank.

While the Treasury usually starts lifting the size of bill auctions by June once the cash is spent, larger-than-expected tax collections can actually result in years with less supply. In 2022, Treasury’s bill supply shrunk by about $540 billion between March and July, according to data

Through the end of March, the Internal Revenue Service processed about 1% fewer returns than at the same point in 2023, according to Barclays strategist Joseph Abate. Corporate taxes are running 15% to 20% above their 2023 pace and withheld taxes are about 3% higher than during the previous year, a reflection of a stronger labor market and higher wages. 

JPMorgan expects the bulk of individual receipts to be filed in the four days around April 15, which would align with the period between April 11 and April 17. That’s because electronic filings represent a growing share of total tax payments, and the IRS has become more efficient at processing non-electronic returns. 

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Intuit steps up, and other accounting technology stories you may have missed

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Intuit launched an all-in-one accounting solution for mid-market businesses, LiveFlow raised $13.5 million to modernize accounting, a host of developments in AI, and other technology stories you may have missed in the last month and how they’ll impact your clients and your firm. 

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Accounting

AICPA & CIMA names Mark Koziel as next CEO, succeeding Barry Melancon

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Allinial Global president and CEO Mark Koziel has been tapped as the next president and CEO of the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants, succeeding longtime chief Barry Melancon, who is retiring at the end of this year.

Koziel has extensive experience at the AICPA, having worked in various roles there for over 14 years, most recently as executive vice president of firm services. He left for Allinial Global in 2020 to head the association of independent accounting and advisory firms but had long been seen as a potential successor to Melancon. Melancon announced his retirement in May at the spring meeting of the AICPA’s governing Council and a search process began for the next head of the AICPA & CIMA. Koziel will step into the role in January after a handover period.

“I am excited and honored to be appointed CEO of the world’s largest accounting membership body,” Koziel said in a statement Wednesday. “I look forward to playing a key role in leading the organization and the profession to new heights. The profession is well positioned to expand and continue to evolve the value it brings serving the public interest and addressing the challenges faced by economies, business, and society. I cannot wait to start working closely with members, candidates, volunteers, and staff to do just that and drive our great profession forward.”

Mark Koziel at Engage 2018

Mark Koziel at AICPA Engage 2018

Koziel began his accounting career in 1991 at the firm Lumsden McCormick in Buffalo, New York, later joining Dopkins & Co. and Joe Slade White & Co., two other firms in the area. 

Melancon has been leading the American Institute of CPAs since 1995 and spearheaded its expansion into the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants, the AICPA & CIMA, after a deal with the U.K.’s Chartered Institute of Management Accountants in 2017. He has long been ranked by his fellow accountants as the most influential person in the accounting profession.

“Serving the profession over the last 30 years has been a great honor, and I have been fortunate to have played a part in its transformation,” Melancon stated. “I am thrilled to see Mark appointed to the role, knowing his passion and vision for the profession and AICPA & CIMA. Mark will do a fantastic job.”

The board of directors of the AICPA & CIMA announced Koziel’s selection Wednesday after an extensive search process.

“We are delighted to announce Mark as our new CEO for the Association,” said Simon Bittlestone, CIMA president and chair of the Association, in a statement. “The appointment follows an open and extensive global search that attracted a strong pool of candidates from around the world. Mark is a dynamic, values-led leader with extensive experience and knowledge of our profession. The board looks forward to working with him in leading our members, candidates, and the profession into the 2030s and beyond. I would like to thank Barry Melancon ahead of his retirement for his leadership of AICPA & CIMA and lifelong commitment to advancing the accounting and finance profession — a remarkable 30 years of dedication.”

AICPA chair and co-chair of the Association Carla McCall, added, “In a strong field of applicants, Mark was the standout candidate because of his knowledge, understanding, experience, and vision for the profession and the organization. These are transformative times for our profession. I look forward to working with Mark to seize the opportunities in front of us.”

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Easing into automation: How to finally digitally transform

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For my entire 20-year career, the CPA profession has warned of the coming technological disruption. The need for digital transformation has been a topic at every conference I have attended and regularly finds its way to the cover of accounting publications. While we’ve come a long way from the paperless initiatives of the early 2000s, many of the core systems supporting firms today look very similar to what they did when I entered the workforce. 

While other industries rapidly adopt data-driven solutions like artificial intelligence, many CPA firms still rely on spreadsheets and processes that merely digitize the traditional paper-based approach. These legacy systems haven’t prevented success and avoid the risks of retooling and reskilling employees, but staying in the past fails to capitalize on the incredible software available today.

That’s not to say firms haven’t tried or don’t understand the opportunities available to them. The historical reality is that the current systems work, change is hard, and many of the traditional approaches to digital transformation require a complete system overhaul all at once. However, those realities have changed dramatically in the last couple of years with new tools that simplify adoption, allow for small iterative enhancements, and create real threats to leave you behind if you ignore them. 

It starts with culture

The technology available to support digital work today is nothing short of breathtaking as many of the promises of cloud technology are being realized. We’ve experienced a true renaissance with tools that are inexpensive, easy to adopt, and sometimes make you feel like a wizard. 

However, the tools aren’t actual magic. We are still waiting for the technological discovery that overcomes poorly designed processes, and we continue to be grounded in the traditional rules and logic that require new skills and organizational alignment. Success requires changes to be embraced and celebrated across the firm, from support staff to partners in corner offices.

The shift in mindset is the most significant hill to climb, but it doesn’t have to be painful or even hard. When you show people a better way to work and an opportunity to be more effective, it’s easier to rally support. The conversation needs to be about more than higher margins and fear of being left behind — the real magic of a digitally driven professional services firm is that it empowers people to help clients and reduce stress. 

Take inventory and find small opportunities

The initial challenge is recognizing the opportunity to expand technology use for everyday tasks and understanding where to begin. Numerous small, seemingly insignificant gains can collectively lead to a substantial shift in how we serve clients, enabling easier monitoring, asynchronous work and more accurate deliverables, among many other benefits. 

These sorts of iterative and continuous changes can be hard, but being intentional about the systems you adopt and the types of experiments you conduct becomes your biggest asset. 

Here are a few vital steps to help you get started as you adopt new technology in your firm:

  • Address fears and challenges: Examine why your firm hasn’t embraced the innovations we’ve seen in the compliance space. Common barriers include fear of change, adoption costs and required knowledge, all of which can be overcome with the right approach and mindset.
  • Start small: Begin by integrating the tools you’re already using, so they communicate with each other, and you can ensure data security at every transfer point. As you gain confidence, identify your firm’s biggest pain points and brainstorm the best ways to tackle them.
  • Thoughtfully consider budget: While the cost of implementing new tools can be a deterrent, many modern solutions are more affordable than expected. With the tremendous software available and marketplaces offering consultants to help you get started, the barriers to entry are lower than ever.

Analyze the best tools for your compliance firm

Think holistically about your tech stack and how tools work together, from your email to the systems you use for research, documentation, and client collaboration. The number of tools available is vast, and while many do similar things, each typically has some nuance. It’s essential to know what you need and thoroughly research to find the right fit. 

The best part is that most of these tools offer free trials and live demos, so you can see the product and ask questions, learn more, and try them out before investing time and money. For those who don’t feel comfortable implementing tools themselves, many great IT consultants can lead you through the selection process and potentially help you onboard and integrate new tools. 

If you want to build the tools and knowledge internally and fully tailor your firm’s digital programs from scratch, AI can help significantly as you learn to write and debug code. If you have zero coding experience, that is no longer an issue with low-code and no-code platforms that do the tough programming part for you, allowing you to personalize and design tools specifically for your firm’s needs.

Implement technology smoothly

Adopting new tools and changing processes can be challenging, particularly for employees. 

Here are some tips for smooth implementation:

  • Introduce tools gradually: Avoid overwhelming your team with too many new tools at once. Be intentional and roll them out at a comfortable pace with clear instructions, expectations and documentation. 
  • Provide comprehensive training: Offer high-level group training followed by individual sessions with subject matter experts to address specific questions. 
  • Foster a supportive culture: Some team members may initially resist new tools, preferring traditional methods. Be patient because, over time, they will recognize the benefits and time savings, allowing them to focus on more interesting and valuable tasks. 
  • Document and iterate: Create clear documentation for new processes and be open to feedback and adjustments as your team adapts and finds new ways of working.

The journey to a truly digitally driven firm requires curiosity, patience and a willingness to embrace change. Be open to continuous learning opportunities, and as technology evolves, so should your firm. This transformation won’t happen overnight. It’s a gradual process that involves overcoming initial fears, making informed decisions, and fostering a strong culture that supports innovation.

By taking these steps, you’ll position your firm for gains in efficiency and long-term success. Embrace the journey, trust the process, and watch as your firm becomes more dynamic, innovative, and client-focused. The future of compliance is digital, and the time to start is now.

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