Wall Street strategists are expecting the Treasury to shrink its monthly cache of bills even more as the government’s cash pile swells with tax receipts pouring in.
The annual rush to pay Uncle Sam means the Treasury doesn’t need to issue as much short-term debt as in other months to fund the U.S. government. The total amount collected this season is expected to be higher than in prior years due to higher incomes and a booming stock market. The department has already paid down about $149 billion of bills since the end of March, data show.
Barclays Plc expects supply to drop by another $150 billion, according to its quarterly forecast, with the Treasury General Account peaking at around $1 trillion by the end of the month. JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists see an additional $116 billion reduction in T-bill supply over the coming three weeks, with risks of even larger reductions. It previously expected a $131 billion drop in short-dated government debt for all of April.
A Wall Street street sign in front of the New York Stock Exchange in New York
Michael Nagle/Bloomberg
“There are downside risks to these forecasts, as we might be underestimating the strength of upcoming tax receipts amid tight labor markets and strong asset performance last year,” JPMorgan strategists led by Jay Barry wrote in a Thursday note to clients.
Two years ago, the Treasury collected nearly $600 billion in tax revenues due to an exuberant stock market and a powerful economic recovery, according to government figures. Those payments are deposited in the TGA, which functions like the government’s checking account at the central bank.
While the Treasury usually starts lifting the size of bill auctions by June once the cash is spent, larger-than-expected tax collections can actually result in years with less supply. In 2022, Treasury’s bill supply shrunk by about $540 billion between March and July, according to data.
Through the end of March, the Internal Revenue Service processed about 1% fewer returns than at the same point in 2023, according to Barclays strategist Joseph Abate. Corporate taxes are running 15% to 20% above their 2023 pace and withheld taxes are about 3% higher than during the previous year, a reflection of a stronger labor market and higher wages.
JPMorgan expects the bulk of individual receipts to be filed in the four days around April 15, which would align with the period between April 11 and April 17. That’s because electronic filings represent a growing share of total tax payments, and the IRS has become more efficient at processing non-electronic returns.
Gary Shapley, who was named only days ago as the acting commissioner of the Internal Revenue Service, is reportedly being replaced by Deputy Treasury Secretary Michael Faulkender amid a power struggle between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Elon Musk.
The New York Times reported that Bessent was outraged that Shapley was named to head the IRS without his knowledge or approval and complained to President Trump about it. Shapley was installed as acting commissioner on Tuesday, only to be ousted on Friday. He first gained prominence as an IRS Criminal Investigation special agent and whistleblower who testified in 2023 before the House Oversight Committee that then-President Joe Biden’s son Hunter received preferential treatment during a tax-evasion investigation, and he and another special agent had been removed from the investigation after complaining to their supervisors in 2022. He was promoted last month to senior advisor to Bessent and made deputy chief of IRS Criminal Investigation. Shapley is expected to remain now as a senior official at IRS Criminal Investigation, according to the Wall Street Journal. The IRS and the Treasury Department press offices did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Faulkender was confirmed last month as deputy secretary at the Treasury Department and formerly worked during the first Trump administration at the Treasury on the Paycheck Protection Program before leaving to teach finance at the University of Maryland.
Faulkender will be the fifth head of the IRS this year. Former IRS commissioner Danny Werfel departed in January, on Inauguration Day, after Trump announced in December he planned to name former Congressman Billy Long, R-Missouri, as the next IRS commissioner, even though Werfel’s term wasn’t scheduled to end until November 2027. The Senate has not yet scheduled a confirmation hearing for Long, amid questions from Senate Democrats about his work promoting the Employee Retention Credit and so-called “tribal tax credits.” The job of acting commissioner has since been filled by Douglas O’Donnell, who was deputy commissioner under Werfel. However, O’Donnell abruptly retired as the IRS came under pressure to lay off thousands of employees and share access to confidential taxpayer data. He was replaced by IRS chief operating officer Melanie Krause, who resigned last week after coming under similar pressure to provide taxpayer data to immigration authorities and employees of the Musk-led U.S. DOGE Service.
Krause had planned to depart later this month under the deferred resignation program at the IRS, under which approximately 22,000 IRS employees have accepted the voluntary buyout offers. But Musk reportedly pushed to have Shapley installed on Tuesday, according to the Times, and he remained working in the commissioner’s office as recently as Friday morning. Meanwhile, plans are underway for further reductions in the IRS workforce of up to 40%, according to the Federal News Network, taking the IRS from approximately 102,000 employees at the beginning of the year to around 60,000 to 70,000 employees.
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