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Secrets investors need to know

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Josh Brown

Photo: Duncan Hill

Josh Brown once had this idea that in order to be a financial advisor, you needed to be buttoned up and fit a particular mold.

Brown, a CNBC contributor who often takes a casual and accessible tack with investors for his commentary, has since learned that there’s more than meets the eye to a lot of things in the world of money.

Throughout his new book, “You Weren’t Supposed To See That: Secrets Every Investor Should Know,” Brown encourages investors to look beyond the surface level of financial advice you see in traditional and social media. Take the American Dream, for example:

“We all grow up being taught about the American Dream and why it can work for everyone,” said Brown, who is the CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, a New York City-based investment advisory firm. “I still believe that’s true, but what we learned in the pandemic is it can’t work for everyone all at once. That’s the thing that you weren’t supposed to see.

“The hidden truth about American-style capitalism is that if everybody is good all at once, the whole thing breaks down. We need people to be successful, but we also need people who are still striving to get there, who are willing to take jobs and do things that others won’t do.”

What we learned in the pandemic is it can’t work for everyone all at once.

Joshua Brown

CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, a New York City-based advisory firm

CNBC spoke with Brown in early October about his experience in the field as a financial advisor and some of his top takeaways for investors across generations.

This interview has been edited and condensed for clarity.

‘One of the biggest lies on Wall Street’

Ana Teresa Solá: What led you to write this book? 

Joshua Brown: I had been writing a blog [The Reformed Broker] for about 15 years, and I was writing seven days a week at one point. Then the momentum started to slow down as my career took over. 

At the end of last year, I decided to put an end to it and just say, “This is as far as I could take this.” But I didn’t want to not give it the proper send off, because it was a huge part of my life.

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When you put your heart and soul into that much writing over that length of time, you kind of want to say, “All right … these are the most important insights, and these are the things that I think were important at the time. And let me do something that recognizes that.” 

I wanted to collect all those insights in a book, revisit some of the greatest hits, and then bring them up to the present so that there is a value to the reader today. 

ATS: You echo this idea throughout the book, that you can’t reap the rewards of the stock market without some impact.

JB: One of the biggest lies on Wall Street is that investors can avoid risk and still have the upside of whatever asset class, the markets, etc. It will always be the biggest lie because it’s the easiest thing on earth to sell.

Everybody wants it, and even very intellectually secure people who understand logic will still fall for that. 

When you’re a salesperson, one of the things you learn is to figure out who you’re talking to and what their buttons are, and then you push those buttons. 

Josh Brown on the CNBC set at the New York Stock Exchange.

Photo: James Moock

The thing that we have done very well in our content as a firm, is we have pointed out the ways in which people are convinced to do one thing or the other, and how much human nature plays into that and why it’s really important to fight those instincts, whether it’s fear or greed, as the markets are unfolding.

You really don’t want to veer too far into one of those buckets. You want to be right down the middle. Take enough risk that you can make money, but not take so much risk that you’re about to get the knockout punch. 

Josh Brown is out with a new book, 'You weren't supposed to see that'

Financial advice industry ‘has come a long way’

ATS: In the book, there’s a story about how you walked into this financial advisor’s office and her technique was not what you expected.

JB: That’s about more than 10 years ago, and it was a really eye-opening moment for me. Prior to that, I was very intimidated to make the transition from being a retail stockbroker to an investment advisor. 

I had this idea in my head that all the people who were serving as investment advisors were like these serious, buttoned up professionals who knew exactly what to do — and it really turned out not to be that. It turned out to be a lot of people pretending.

The industry has come a long way since then. The average advisor is significantly better equipped to deal with clients and more professionalized than what I had seen in that era.

That’s kind of a relic of another time that no longer exists. I don’t think that you can fake it to the degree that you used to be able to. [Many advisors are] operating on a fiduciary standard, I don’t think you could fool people anymore.

Gen Z doesn’t need financial planning advice. They need asset allocation advice.

Joshua Brown

CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, a New York City-based advisory firm

ATS: You say young advisors are equipped with the expertise, but they lack something prior generations of advisors have. What is it?

JB: You have this new generation of incredibly qualified financial planning talent. They’re coming out of college knowing more at 23 than many advisors at 43 have ever learned about the planning process. 

This is my opinion — I’m sure people [will] get mad when they hear this — but what they’re missing is the ability to convert an audience of prospective clients into real relationships.

They don’t yet have the life experience. Generationally, they’ve been able to get away with doing a lot less face-to-face. They haven’t dealt with as much rejection as Gen X, certainly the boomers.

Let’s put them in some rooms with important meetings going on. Let’s give them opportunities to have these face-to-face interactions, because they really know what they’re doing. 

Where they’re lacking is what my generation and older has — which is the ability to sell, to persuade, to make people feel comfortable and the ability to deal with awkward social circumstances.

‘Gen Z doesn’t need financial planning advice’

ATS: What are you observing with Gen Z and how they’re seeking financial advice? 

JB:  Gen Z, they don’t need financial planning advice. They need asset allocation advice. They don’t have the assets accumulated. There are no estate issues. There aren’t really tax things worth discussing. 

Whatever they’re encountering on TikTok is whatever the algorithm is serving them, and the algorithm is going to serve them the most outrageous content, it’s going to serve them shortcuts, facts, tricks, stories about people making wild, Bonanza size trades. 

It’s not advice … Most of it is being delivered by completely unqualified people who are not registered, who are not beholden to any sort of standard, and could just say whatever they want.

But I think what ends up happening with that generation, just like every generation prior, is things in their life become more complex. The level of responsibility goes up, the amount of money that they’re dealing with goes up, and they will, in turn, start looking for help. 

And they’ll start their search online. 

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Prices of top 25 Medicare Part D drugs have nearly doubled: AARP

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List prices for the top 25 prescription drugs covered by Medicare Part D have nearly doubled, on average, since they were first brought to market, according to a new AARP report.

Moreover, that price growth has often exceeded the rate of inflation, according to the interest group representing Americans ages 50 and over.

The analysis comes as Medicare now has the ability to negotiate prescription drug costs after the Inflation Reduction Act was signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022.

Notably, only certain drugs are eligible for those price negotiations.

The Biden administration in August released a list of the first 10 drugs to be included, which may prompt an estimated $6 billion in net savings for Medicare in 2026.

Another list of 15 Part D drugs selected for negotiation for 2027 is set to be announced by Feb. 1 by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

Biden administration releases prices of 10 drugs in Medicare negotiations

AARP studied the top 25 Part D drugs as of 2022 that are not currently subject to Medicare price negotiation. However, there is a “pretty strong likelihood” at least some of the drugs on that list may be selected in the second line of negotiation, according to Leigh Purvis, prescription drug policy principal at AARP.

Those 25 drugs have increased by an average of 98%, or nearly doubled, since they entered the market, the research found, with lifetime price increases ranging from 0% to 293%.

Price increases that took place after the drugs began selling on the market were responsible for a “substantial portion” of the current list prices, AARP found.

The top 25 treatments have been on the market for an average of 11 years, with timelines ranging from five to 28 years.

The findings highlight the importance of allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices, as well as having a mechanism to discourage annual price increases, Purvis said. Under the Inflation Reduction Act, drug companies will also be penalized for price increases that exceed inflation.

Notably, a new $2,000 annual cap on out-of-pocket Part D prescription drug costs goes into effect this year. Beneficiaries will also have the option of spreading out those costs over the course of the year, rather than paying all at once. Insulin has also been capped at $35 per month for Medicare beneficiaries.

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Those caps help people who were previously spending upwards of $10,000 per year on their cost sharing of Part D prescription drugs, according to Purvis.

“The fact that there’s now a limit is incredibly important for them, but then also really important for everyone,” Purvis said. “Because everyone is just one very expensive prescription away from needing that out-of-pocket cap.”

The new law also expands an extra help program for Part D beneficiaries with low incomes.

“We do hear about people having to choose between splitting their pills to make them last longer, or between groceries and filling a prescription,” said Natalie Kean, director of federal health advocacy at Justice in Aging.

“The pressure of costs and prescription drugs is real, and especially for people with low incomes, who are trying to just meet their day-to-day needs,” Kean said.

As the new changes go into effect, retirees should notice tangible differences when they’re filling their prescriptions, she said.

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How much money you should save for a comfortable retirement

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Many Americans are anxious and confused when it comes to saving for retirement.

One of those pain points: How much should households be setting aside to give themselves a good chance at financial security in older age?

More than half of Americans lack confidence in their ability to retire when they want and to sustain a comfortable life, according to a 2024 poll by the Bipartisan Policy Center.

It’s easy to see why people are unsure of themselves: Retirement savings is an inexact science.

“It’s really a hard question to answer,” said Philip Chao, a certified financial planner and founder of Experiential Wealth, based in Cabin John, Maryland.

“Everyone’s answer is different,” Chao said. “There is no magic number.”

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Why?

Savings rates change from person to person based on factors such as income and when they started saving. It’s also inherently impossible for anyone to know when they’ll stop working, how long they’ll live, or how financial conditions may evolve — all of which impact the value of one’s nest egg and how long it must last.

That said, there are guideposts and truisms that will give many savers a good shot at getting it right, experts said.

15% is ‘probably the right place to start’

“I think a total savings rate of 15% is probably the right place to start,” said CFP David Blanchett, head of retirement research at PGIM, the asset management arm of Prudential Financial.

The percentage is a share of savers’ annual income before taxes. It includes any money workers might get from a company 401(k) match.

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Those with lower earnings — say, less than $50,000 a year — can probably save less, perhaps around 10%, Blanchett said, as a rough approximation.

Conversely, higher earners — perhaps those who make more than $200,000 a year — may need to save closer to 20%, he said.

These disparities are due to the progressive nature of Social Security. Benefits generally account for a bigger chunk of lower earners’ retirement income relative to higher earners. Those with higher salaries must save more to compensate.

“If I make $5 million, I don’t really care about Social Security, because it won’t really make a dent,” Chao said.

How to think about retirement savings

Daniel De La Hoz | Moment | Getty Images

Households should have a basic idea of why they’re saving, Chao said.

Savings will help cover, at a minimum, essential expenses such as food and housing throughout retirement, which may last decades, Chao said. Hopefully there will be additional funds for spending on nonessential items such as travel.

This income generally comes from a combination of personal savings and Social Security. Between those sources, households generally need enough money each year to replace about 70% to 75% of the salaries they earned just before retirement, Chao said.

There is no magic number.

Philip Chao

CFP, founder of Experiential Wealth

Fidelity, the largest administrator of 401(k) plans, pegs that replacement rate at 55% to 80% for workers to be able to maintain their lifestyle in retirement.

Of that, about 45 percentage points would come from savings, Fidelity wrote in an October analysis.

To get there, people should save 15% a year from age 25 to 67, the firm estimates. The rate may be lower for those with a pension, it said.

The savings rate also rises for those who start later: Someone who starts saving at 35 years old would need to save 23% a year, for example, Fidelity estimates.

An example of how much to save

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Here’s a basic example from Fidelity of how the financial calculus might work: Let’s say a 25-year-old woman earns $54,000 a year. Assuming a 1.5% raise each year, after inflation, her salary would be $100,000 by age 67.

Her savings would likely need to generate about $45,000 a year, adjusted for inflation, to maintain her lifestyle after age 67. This figure is 45% of her $100,000 income before retirement, which is Fidelity’s estimate for an adequate personal savings rate.

Since the worker currently gets a 5% dollar-for-dollar match on her 401(k) plan contributions, she’d need to save 10% of her income each year, starting with $5,400 this year — for a total of 15% toward retirement.

However, 15% won’t necessarily be an accurate guide for everyone, experts said.

“The more you make, the more you have to save,” Blanchett said. “I think that’s a really important piece, given the way Social Security benefits adjust based upon your historical earnings history.”

Keys to success: ‘Start early and save often’

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There are some keys to general success for retirement, experts said.

  1. “Start early and save often,” Chao said. “That’s the main thing.” This helps build a savings habit and gives more time for investments to grow, experts said.
  2. “If you can’t save 15%, then save 5%, save whatever you can — even 1% — so you get in the habit of knowing you need to put money away,” Blanchett said. “Start when you can, where you can.”
  3. Every time you get a raise, save at least a portion instead of spending it all. Blanchett recommends setting aside at least a quarter of each raise. Otherwise, your savings rate will lag your more expensive lifestyle.
  4. Many people invest too conservatively, Chao said. Investors need an adequate mix of assets such as stocks and bonds to ensure investments grow adequately over decades. Target-date funds aren’t optimal for everyone, but provide a “pretty good” asset allocation for most savers, Blanchett said.
  5. Save for retirement in a tax-advantaged account like a 401(k) plan or an individual retirement account, rather than a taxable brokerage account, if possible. The latter will generally erode more savings due to taxes, Blanchett said.
  6. Delaying retirement is “the silver bullet” to make your retirement savings last longer, Blanchett said. One caution: Workers can’t always count on this option being available.
  7. Don’t forget about “vesting” rules for your 401(k) match. You may not be entitled to that money until after a few years of service.

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Missing quarterly tax payment could trigger ‘unexpected penalties’

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The fourth-quarter estimated tax deadline for 2024 is Jan. 15, and missing a payment could trigger “unexpected penalties and fees” when filing your return, according to the IRS.

Typically, estimated taxes apply to income without withholdings, such as earnings from freelance work, a small business or investments. But you could still owe taxes for full-time or retirement income if you didn’t withhold enough.

You could also owe fourth-quarter taxes for year-end bonuses, stock dividends, capital gains from mutual fund payouts or profits from crypto sales and more, the IRS said.    

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Federal income taxes are “pay as you go,” meaning the IRS expects payments throughout the year as you make income, said certified public accountant Brian Long, senior tax advisor at Wealth Enhancement in Minneapolis. 

If you miss the Jan. 15 deadline, you may incur an interest-based penalty based on the current interest rate and how much you should have paid. That penalty compounds daily.

Tax withholdings, estimated payments or a combination of the two, can “help avoid a surprise tax bill at tax time,” according to the IRS.

What to know about the ‘safe harbor’ rules

However, you could still owe taxes for 2024 if you make more than expected and don’t adjust your tax payments.

“The good thing about this last quarterly payment is that most individuals should have their year-end numbers finalized,” said Sheneya Wilson, a CPA and founder of Fola Financial in New York.

How to make quarterly estimated tax payments

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