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Life spans are growing but ‘health spans’ are shrinking

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First, the good news: Americans are living longer than they used to.

Now, the bad news: Older Americans are spending more years in poor health. That dynamic often comes with negative financial consequences, medical and financial experts say.

Since 1960, the average U.S. life span has increased to 77.5 from roughly 70 years old, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

But “health spans” are simultaneously shrinking.

A health span is the number of years older people spend in fundamentally good health, said Susan Roberts, a professor of medicine and epidemiology and senior associate dean for foundational research at Dartmouth College.

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Today, the average person spends about 10 years with chronic ailments like diabetes, cancer, arthritis, cardiovascular disease, dementia, cataracts or osteoporosis — roughly double the duration in the 1960s, Roberts said.

As a result, there’s a “widening gap” between one’s life and health spans, she said.

This is because medicine has gotten better at keeping sick people alive, though not necessarily treating them, Roberts said. Obesity, which is an underlying cause of many chronic diseases, is also more widespread, she said. Obesity affects 42% of U.S. adults, according to CDC data released in 2021.

How health impacts wealth

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The concept of a health span is “increasingly important” for a household’s finances, said Stacy Francis, a certified financial planner based in New York and member of CNBC’s Advisor Council.

Adults are spending more time “living a life where they’re not in their best state,” said Francis, president and CEO of Francis Financial. “And it results in significant expenses.”

About 90% of the nation’s $4.5 trillion in annual health care costs are for people with chronic diseases and mental health conditions, according to the CDC.

Medical costs get “worse and worse” once people have a chronic ailment, Roberts said.

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The average 65-year-old retiring this year will spend about $165,000 in out-of-pocket health and medical expenses in retirement, up 5% from 2023, according to Fidelity Investments.

Out-of-pocket treatment costs and early retirements due to poor health are two big ways chronic conditions impact households financially, experts said.

Early retirement might mean claiming Social Security earlier than expected — perhaps resulting in a lower monthly benefit, said Carolyn McClanahan, a physician and CFP based in Jacksonville, Florida.

“A person’s health directly impacts their wealth — and this connection becomes even more acute as people age,” Susan Silberman, senior director of research and evaluation at the National Council on Aging, said in a 2022 briefing.

Of course, this isn’t to say healthy people avoid significant medical expenses.

They may ultimately pay more over the long term relative to an unhealthy individual if they need long-term care, for example, which can be costly and more likely with age, said McClanahan, the founder of Life Planning Partners and a member of CNBC’s Advisor Council.

Plus, healthy people experience more “go-go” years, meaning they can travel and spend on fun things, she said.

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“When you are in your 40s and 50s, it’s the point of no return,” McClanahan said.

If adults don’t start tending to their health by this age, they become more susceptible to chronic diseases like diabetes and high blood pressure, which can lead to sudden issues like strokes and heart attacks, she said.

Treat purchases of healthy food, gym memberships or exercise classes as an investment in yourself, said Francis. Prioritize the spending on your health and, if it feels like too much money, try to cut back on spending that “doesn’t increase your health span,” she said.

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“I think of that like an investment I put in my 401(k),” Francis said.

“Those extra dollars … will add years to your life and you’ll make up for it,” she said.

More than half of people can reverse a diabetes diagnosis by losing 10% of their weight within the first seven years of that diagnosis, Roberts said.

The “biggest tragedy” of chronic ailments is that “they’re preventable,” Roberts said. A few dietary tweaks — eliminating sugary drinks like soda and juice, and eating small, healthy snacks like an apple — can make a “dramatic difference,” she said.

“Learning to like healthy foods is actually not that difficult,” Roberts said. “Practice it for a couple weeks and be patient with yourself.”

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Powell sees tariffs raising inflation and says Fed will wait before further rate moves

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US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference after the Monetary Policy Committee meeting, at the Federal Reserve in Washington, DC on March 19, 2025. 

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Friday that he expects President Donald Trump’s tariffs to raise inflation and lower growth, and indicated that the central bank won’t move on interest rates until it gets a clearer picture on the ultimate impacts.

In a speech delivered before business journalists in Arlington, Va., Powell said the Fed faces a “highly uncertain outlook” because of the new reciprocal levies the president announced Wednesday.

Though he said the economy currently looks strong, he stressed the threat that tariffs pose and indicated that the Fed will be focused on keeping inflation in check.

“Our obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored and to make certain that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem,” Powell said in prepared remarks. “We are well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance. It is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy.”

The remarks came shortly after Trump called on Powell to “stop playing politics” and cut interest rates because inflation is down.

There’s been a torrent of selling on Wall Street following the Trump announcement of 10% across-the-board tariffs, along with a menu of reciprocal charges that are much higher for many key trading partners.

Powell noted that the announced tariffs were “significantly larger than expected.”

“The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth,” he said. “The size and duration of these effects remain uncertain.”

Focused on inflation

While Powell was circumspect about how the Fed will react to the changes, markets are pricing in an aggressive set of interest rate cuts starting in June, with a rising likelihood that the central bank will slice at least a full percentage point off its key borrowing rate by the end of the year, according to CME Group data.

However, the Fed is charged with keeping inflation anchored with full employment.

Powell stressed that meeting the inflation side of its mandate will require keeping inflation expectations in check, something that might not be easy to do with Trump lobbing tariffs at U.S. trading partners, some of whom already have announced retaliatory measures.

A greater focus on inflation also would be likely to deter the Fed from easing policy until it assesses what longer-term impact tariffs will have on prices. Typically, policymakers view tariffs as just a temporary rise in prices and not a fundamental inflation driver, but the broad nature of Trump’s move could change that perspective.

“While tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation, it is also possible that the effects could be more persistent,” Powell said. “Avoiding that outcome would depend on keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored, on the size of the effects, and on how long it takes for them to pass through fully to prices.”

Core inflation ran at a 2.8% annual rate in February, part of a general moderating pattern that is nonetheless still well above the Fed’s 2% target.

In spite of the elevated anxiety over tariffs, Powell said the economy for now “is still in a good place,” with a solid labor market. However, he mentioned recent consumer surveys showing rising concerns about inflation and dimming expectations for future growth, pointing out that longer-term inflation expectations are still in line with the Fed’s objectives.

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Watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell speak live on interest rates and tariffs

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[The stream is slated to start at 11:25 p.m. ET. Please refresh the page if you do not see a player above at that time.]

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks Friday to the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing conference in Arlington, Va.

The central bank leader’s appearance, including prepared remarks and a question and answer session after, comes at a time of heightened market uncertainty regarding President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs against U.S. trading partners.

In March, the Fed voted to hold its benchmark interest rate steady while noting the issues over trade policy. Other Fed officials in recent days have expressed support for staying in a holding pattern until policy issues become clearer, though markets are pricing in four or five cuts this year.

Read more:
Federal Reserve is unlikely to rescue markets and economy from tariff turmoil anytime soon
Trump’s tariff gambit will raise the stakes for an economy already looking fragile
JPMorgan raises recession odds for this year to 60%

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Traders betting Fed will cut rates at least 4 times this year to bail out economy

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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on April 03, 2025 in New York City. 

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Traders are now betting the Federal Reserve will cut at least four times this year, amid fears Trump’s tariffs could tip the U.S. into a recession.

Odds of five quarter-point cuts coming this year jumped to 37.9%, up from 18.3% one day prior, according to data from the CME Group on Friday morning. That would put the federal funds rate to 3.00% to 3.25%, down from 4.25% to 4.50% where it has been since December.

Markets are also pricing in a roughly 32% chance the federal funds rate will fall to 3.25% to 3.50%, which would mean four quarter-point cuts from the Fed.

At the same time, the likelihood of a half-percentage point cut coming in June also jumped, to 43.8% from 15.9% previously.

The implied odds the Federal Reserve will cut aggressively rose, after Trump’s tariffs raised fears of a global trade war, and hurt economists’ forecasts for both growth and inflation. Investors are expecting that a slowdown in economic growth could spur the Fed to lower rates in a bid to avoid a recession.

However, many worry the Fed has a tough road ahead of them, as the central bank would have to cut rates in an environment where inflation has yet to go down to its 2% target. If implemented, the tariffs are expected to drive core inflation north of 3%, possibly even as high as 5% according to some forecasts.

On Friday, Roger W. Ferguson, economist and former Fed vice chair, told CNBC the Fed may not cut at all this year, saying the central bank has to worry about the inflation part of its mandate.

— CNBC’s Jeff Cox contributed to this report.

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