Connect with us

Economics

The risk of election violence in America is real

Published

5 months ago

on

THERE ARE countries in the world where machete-wielding teenagers intimidating voters are a routine part of elections. America is not normally among them. Yet on October 29th an 18-year-old man in Florida was arrested for doing exactly that. Caleb James Williams was, according to local police, part of a group of eight young men hanging out in the parking lot of an early-vote polling station in suburban Jacksonville, waving Donald Trump flags and chanting slogans. Mr Williams allegedly “brandished a machete in an aggressive, threatening posture over his head” at two women who were supporting Kamala Harris.

In late October two ballot boxes, one in Washington state and one in Oregon, were set alight. In Arizona, on October 24th, a 60-year-old man was arrested in connection with three incidents where a Democratic National Committee office was shot at, first with a BB gun, and then with real bullets. In Michigan, on November 2nd, a 55-year-old man was charged after allegedly accelerating his car at Harris campaign canvassers, while calling for them to be exterminated. And in July, one candidate, Donald Trump, was almost assassinated.

Many Americans fear it could get worse. Three-quarters of Americans say that they are worried about post-election violence, according to the AP/NORC poll. Some businesses in Washington, DC, have boarded up their windows, apparently for fear of riots. A few larger businesses are quietly preparing for potential disruption by cancelling meetings and suggesting employees work from home. Readying for potential unrest, some media organisations have even redeployed correspondents from warzones. A few media organisations are warning darkly of “civil war”. But how bad could it really get?

“I am not a panic peddler,” says Sheriff Tom Dart of Cook County, Illinois. “I am just sitting on data that is indisputable…saying that we’ve never had more people saying political violence is OK.” Mr Dart is among the most prominent of 200 law-enforcement officers who have been briefed by Robert Pape, an academic at the University of Chicago who studies political violence. Mr Pape has been surveying voters, both remotely and in person at rallies. Based on this evidence, he is frank: “We are going forward into a season of political violence.”

Underpinning this is data showing that significant minorities—a fifth of Americans—say they support the use of violence to either restore Donald Trump to the presidency or else to prevent him from taking it. That finding, Mr Pape argues, is roughly analogous to discovering there is a lot of dry wood in a forest. It does not necessarily mean that an enormous wildfire will break out. Nor does it tell you much about what sort of spark could set it off. But it means that you should be prepared.

What would violence look like if it happened? Much depends on the results. If Ms Harris appears to be winning in a close count, one possibility is protests at places where counts are being held (as happened in 2020), fuelled by conspiracy theories about fraud. Even if she won clearly, currently sporadic violent incidents against Democrats by amped-up or paranoid individuals could escalate. By contrast, if Mr Trump wins, the fear would be widespread protests in big cities, some of which could turn into violent rioting. Mr Pape stresses that his data suggest people on both sides of the political divide are supportive of violence.

The risk, however, is not evenly balanced. Another survey by the Public Religion Research Institute, a think-tank, suggests Republicans are over three times as likely as Democrats to believe that “true American patriots may have to resort to violence to save the country”. And incitement can turn support for violence into action. In the final weeks of the campaign, Mr Trump has come close to that. At one of his final rallies in Pennsylvania on November 3rd he appeared to make a joke about how he “wouldn’t mind” if somebody shot at the “fake news” journalists covering him, and suggested that “demonic” Democrats “are fighting so hard to steal this damn thing”.

One concern is that viral online posts claiming to offer proof of electoral fraud or irregularities will inspire people to take to the streets. A recent illustration of just how quickly “rage bait” can spin out of control came from the (false) claim that Haitians were eating dogs in Springfield, Ohio. That was then amplified by Mr Trump and his running-mate, J.D. Vance. It led to over 30 bomb threats against schools and government buildings. Already hundreds of posts have claimed to show evidence of election fraud, and many more are certain to follow on and after election day. False claims are also fanned by foreign adversaries: a viral video purporting to show Haitian immigrants illegally voting in Georgia turned out to be Russian election interference, America’s intelligence agencies said last week.

Yet there are reasons to be optimistic for a smoother ride than in 2020. Local officials are better prepared. In Michigan, poll workers have been given special phone numbers to contact law enforcement if they are threatened. In Philadelphia’s, ballot-counting  has been moved from the city centre location warehouse , where in 2020 Mr Trump’s supporters banged on the windows demanding to “stop the count” to a suburban warehouse, is now surrounded by barbed wire. “Do we think it’s possible there’s going to be protests at election warehouses? We’ve already seen that, so, yeah, we’re planning for that. Do we think that folks are going to get threatened? Yeah, we’re planning for that,” says Adrian Fontes, Arizona’s Democratic secretary of state. According to the Brennan Centre for Justice, a think-tank, 92% of local election officials across America have taken steps to improve election security and staff safety.

Will it be enough? Predictions of imminent civil war are clearly overblown. Even widespread violence seems unlikely. But irregularities and a few bad incidents are inevitable (and happen at every election). “The notion that all police departments are going to be up to speed on election law is wildly naive,” worries Mr Dart, the sheriff in Illinois. After all, America has almost 18,000 police departments. Small forces are not all trained in active-shooter response, best crowd-control practices or in riot equipment and weapons, says Brian Higgins, a former cop and now a crowd-control expert at John Jay College of Criminal Justice.

Overall, police seem prepared. And election officials have put measures in place, including live feeds of drop boxes, in an attempt to build trust in the process. Sending a signal that political violence will be severely punished would help. Unfortunately Mr Trump is conveying the opposite message to his supporters—by promising to pardon January 6th rioters if re-elected. As long as violence is not roundly condemned, it is impossible to rule out. ■

Related Topics:
Continue Reading

Economics

Consumer sentiment tumbles in April as inflation fears spike, University of Michigan survey shows

Published

14 hours ago

on

April 11, 2025

By

People shop in Bayonne, New Jersey on April 8, 2025. 

Charly Triballeau | Afp | Getty Images

Consumer sentiment grew even worse than expected in April as the expected inflation level hit its highest since 1981, a closely watched University of Michigan survey showed Friday.

The survey’s mid-month reading on consumer sentiment fell to 50.8, down from 57.0 in March and below the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 54.6. The move represented a 10.9% monthly change and was 34.2% lower than a year ago.

As sentiment moved lower, inflation worries surged.

Respondents’ expectation for inflation a year from now leaped to 6.7%, the highest level since November 1981 and up from 5% in March. At the five-year horizon, the expectation climbed to 4.4%, a 0.3 percentage point increase from March and the highest since June 1991.

Other measures in the survey also showed deterioration.

The current economic conditions index fell to 56.5, an 11.4% drop from March, while the expectations measure slipped to 47.2, a 10.3% fall. On an annual basis, the two measures dropped 28.5% and 37.9% respectively.

Sentiment declines came across all demographics, including age, income and political affiliation, according to Joanne Hsu, the survey director.

“Consumers report multiple warning signs that raise the risk of recession: expectations for business conditions, personal finances, incomes, inflation, and labor markets all continued to deteriorate this month,” Hsu said.

In addition to the other readings, the survey showed unemployment fears rising to their highest since 2009.

The survey comes amid concerns that President Donald Trump’s tariffs will raise inflation and slow growth, with some prominent Wall Street executives and economists expecting the U.S. could teeter on recession over the next year.

To be sure, the survey’s readings are generally counter to market-based expectations, which indicate little fear of inflation ahead. However, Federal Reserve officials in recent days say they fear that consumer expectations can quickly become reality if behavior changes. Consumer and producer inflation readings this week showed price pressures easing in March.

Also, the University of Michigan survey included responses between March 25 and April 8, the end period coming the day before Trump announced a 90-day stay on aggressive tariffs against dozens of U.S. trading partners.

Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE

Join us at the New York Stock Exchange!
Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE, an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange.

In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12.

Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles, and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!

Continue Reading

Economics

Fed’s Kashkari says rising bond yields, falling dollar show investors are moving on from the U.S.

Published

14 hours ago

on

April 11, 2025

By

Fed's Kashkari: Falling dollar lends credibility to story of investor preferences shifting

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said Friday recent market trends show investors are moving away from the U.S. as the safest place to invest while President Donald Trump’s trade war escalates.

With Treasury yields rising and the U.S. dollar sagging against its global counterparts in recent days, the trends are running counter to what you might normally see, the central bank official said during a CNBC “Squawk Box” interview.

“Normally, when you see big tariff increases, I would have expected the dollar to go up. The fact that the dollar is going down at the same time, I think, lends some more credibility to the story of investor preferences shifting,” Kashkari said.

The 10-year Treasury yield has surged this week after Trump announced his intention to slap a 10% across-the-board tariff against U.S. trading partners and threatened to impose even harsher select levies before backing down Wednesday.

At the same time, the greenback has slumped more 3% against a basket of global currencies, with moves potentially signifying a turn away from safe-haven U.S. assets.

“Investors around the world have viewed America as the best place to invest, and if that’s true, we will have a trade deficit. So now one of the ways that expresses itself is in lower yields across asset classes in America,” Kashkari said. “If the trade deficit is going to go down, it could be that investors are saying, OK, America no longer is the most attractive place in the world to invest, and then you would expect to see bond yields go up.”

Kashkari noted, however, that he is seeing “stresses” but not significant dislocations in market functioning.

Kashkari does not vote this year on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee but will vote in 2026. He noted that his focus in the current environment is on keeping inflation expectations anchored, echoing other policymakers’ statements that rates are unlikely to move until there is clearer visibility on fiscal and trade policy.

Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE

Join us at the New York Stock Exchange!
Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE, an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange.

In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12.

Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles, and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!

Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO

Continue Reading

Economics

Wholesale inflation March 2024:

Published

15 hours ago

on

April 11, 2025

By

PPI falls 0.4% in March

Wholesale prices unexpectedly fell in March, setting up a favorable inflation backdrop as President Donald Trump began intensifying tariffs against U.S. trading partners, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

The producer price index, considered a leading indicator for pipeline inflation pressures, declined a seasonally adjusted 0.4% for the month, after rising 0.1% in February. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 0.2%.

Excluding food and energy, so-called core PPI also declined, down 0.1% against the estimate for a 0.3% increase. The index less food, energy and trade services increased 0.1%.

More than 70% of the slide in final demand prices came from a 0.9% tumble in goods prices, a key measure as policymakers look for inflation drivers. Services prices also pulled back, falling 0.2%.

Nevertheless, the indicators showed inflation still holding above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Headline PPI showed a 2.7% 12-month rate while the index excluding food, energy and trade services was at a 3.4% rate.

Moreover, March inflation measures will be considered somewhat stale considering the uncertainty behind Trump’s trade policy. The president slapped a broad 10% levy against all imports while also revealing a menu of individual duties against dozens of other trading partners. Trump on Wednesday backed off what he termed “reciprocal” tariffs, instituting a 90-day negotiation period in an effort to reduce the U.S. trade deficit.

The BLS on Thursday also reported that consumer prices pressures were easing, down 0.1% for a headline rate of 2.4% and a core reading of 2.8% that was the lowest in four years.

This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.

Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE

Join us at the New York Stock Exchange!
Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE, an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange.

In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12.

Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles, and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!

Continue Reading

Trending