The Republican sweep of the presidency and Congress has transformed what could have been a struggle to merely renew Donald Trump’s tax cuts into a multipronged campaign to slash levies in new and bigger ways.
The incoming Republican majorities in the House and Senate mean Trump can enact a tax bill without making concessions to Democrats. Republicans will only be constrained by how much deficit spending the party’s lawmakers and global financial markets can tolerate.
“That is the several trillion-dollar question,” said Rohit Kumar, co-leader of PwC’s national tax office and a former tax policy advisor to Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell.
Donald Trump during a campaign event in Las Vegas
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Owners of closely held companies and high-net worth families stand to benefit with Congress now more likely to renew expiring provisions in the 2017 law providing a 20% deduction on pass-through business income and an elevated estate tax exemption, said Gordon Gray, a former Republican Senate Budget Committee aide and now executive director of the Pinpoint Policy Institute.
Many Democrats campaigned on a tax-the-rich agenda and advocated paying for other tax cuts by targeting those provisions, as well as rolling back the law’s tax cuts for corporations and individuals making more than $400,000 per year.
Republicans’ election success not only bolsters the 2017 tax cuts but opens the way for consideration of ideas such as further cutting the corporate tax rate and exempting tips from federal income taxes, said Grover Norquist, an influential voice in Republican tax policy debates and president of the conservative group Americans for Tax Reform.
Trump enthusiastically promoted both the corporate-rate reduction and the break for tipped income during the presidential campaign and also promised myriad other tax breaks.
The first thing Republicans will have to negotiate is how large the tax-cut package will be and how much they’re willing to increase a federal deficit that reached $1.83 trillion in the fiscal year that ended Sept 30. Just extending the expiring tax cuts would drive up deficits by $4.6 trillion over 10 years, and all of Trump’s campaign plans would add as much as $7.75 trillion, according to estimates by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan fiscal watchdog group.
Stephen Moore, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation and informal Trump advisor, said the tax cuts will stimulate economic growth and Republicans can also cancel spending approved under President Joe Biden to help offset the cost of the cuts. Still, the bill is likely to have some level of deficit financing, he said.
That sets up a clash within the GOP between deficit hawks and lawmakers who don’t think revenue losses from tax cuts need to be offset, said Sage Eastman, a Republican strategist and former aide to the House Ways and Means Committee, which has jurisdiction over tax legislation.
Republican Senator Mike Crapo of Idaho, who is in line to chair the Senate Finance Committee, has said “pro-growth” tax policies don’t need to be paid for. The 2017 tax cuts did produce some positive economic effects, but they were far more modest than the Trump administration and some Republicans forecast, said Kyle Pomerleau, a senior fellow with the American Enterprise Institute.
“It will be important to watch to see if markets start to panic if enough deficit spending is being contemplated, or if they’ll decide to look through it,” said Martha Gimbel, executive director of The Budget Lab at Yale and a former White House economist under Biden.
Trump has vowed to impose a tariff of 10% to 20% on all imported goods plus 60% on Chinese products and promoted that as an offset for tax cuts. But lawmakers will have to decide whether to enact those tariffs in the tax bill so the revenue can be officially counted — a difficult vote for Republicans, especially those who want free trade. They could also just assume revenue would continue from presidentially imposed duties, even though Trump might later strike a trade deal that drops them.
“There’s always a way to make things work,” said Dave Camp, a senior policy advisor at PwC and a former Republican chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee.
The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates the tariffs could raise only about $225 billion a year. Kimberly Clausing, a former Treasury Department official in the Biden administration and a UCLA professor of tax law, said the GOP will probably overestimate the revenue from tariffs and ignore the negative economic impact of the duties.
Republicans have said they want to enact a tax bill within the first 100 days of Trump’s second term, though it’ll probably take longer to negotiate the details, Kumar said.
The narrow GOP margin in the House gives small bands of Republican lawmakers leverage to demand specific tax breaks, and the Democratic strategy will be to focus on vulnerable Republican members in swing districts to push them to support or oppose individual provisions, said Scott Mulhauser, a Democratic strategist and veteran of legislative policy battles.
The Republican “trifecta” also sets up a lobbying free-for-all among business groups to persuade lawmakers and the White House to create new tax breaks to boost their industries. That intensifies the internecine struggle among Republicans over what to include in the package and how to contain the cost.
Skeptics said they doubt all of the tax cuts Trump proposed during the campaign — which grew so numerous that even some of his advisors are unclear about which proposals he’s most committed to — would be enacted because of the cost and difficulty of instituting the entire list.
Trump promised he would restore the full value of the state and local tax deduction, or SALT, a popular break in high-tax states including New York, New Jersey and California. Trump’s signature tax law capped the value of that deduction at $10,000, regardless of marital status.
While some changes to SALT such as raising the cap or doubling the deduction for married couples filing jointly are possible, eliminating the limit entirely isn’t likely because of the revenue loss: $1.2 trillion over 10 years, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
Lack of awareness, fear of mistakes and penalties, and the cost of filing are preventing many families from claiming millions of dollars in tax credits, according to a new study.
The report, released Tuesday by the New Practice Lab at New America, surveyed over 5,000 respondents to learn why so many households fail to claim the Child Tax Credit, the Earned Income Tax Credit and other tax breaks that could help them.
Awareness gaps were a big barrier. Among households earning under $10,000 annually, 36% were unaware of any tax credits, more than double the rate among households earning over $150,000 (17%).
Misunderstanding their eligibility also kept many taxpayers from filing their annual returns. One-third of lower-income households earning under $26,000 who hadn’t filed taxes in the past three years said they didn’t file because they believed their income was too low. But within this group, 20% had earned income and 37% had children — factors that probably would have made them eligible for claiming the tax credits if they had filed.
Fear of making a mistake and being penalized for it was the most common barrier to filing a return, particularly among lower-income households. This fear had major consequences, as 61% of respondents who felt this way hadn’t filed tax returns in the past three years, and even when they did file, they were more likely to miss out on tax credits.
Filing a tax return can be expensive for families, forcing them to forgo other expenses in order to file. Even though 36% of survey respondents cited cost as a barrier, most had used professional tax help at some point due to concerns around navigating the process alone.
Accessing the right documents poses a challenge for taxpayers.Half of the survey respondents said they had trouble gathering the documents they needed to file their taxes, and 80% of those who faced documentation issues struggled with more than one type of document.
Most low-income households are already connected with other types of government support services, but tax credits feel like a separate disconnected area. The survey found 84% of households who had not filed taxes at all or irregularly in the past three years had participated in at least one other public support service during that same time period.
“Accessing tax credits is often overwhelming and costly, creating unnecessary barriers for the families who need this support the most,” said Devyani Singh, lead author of the report, in a statement. “Tax credits can be a critical lifeline for families that are struggling financially, and it’s up to state Departments of Revenue to look at the process as a delivery issue. There’s no one-size-fits-all solution to increasing tax credit uptake; improving access requires a multipronged strategy combining personalized outreach, streamlined systems, and policies that meet families where they are.”
The report pointed out that such factors are important for government agencies to consider, especially as the White House and some lawmakers in Congress express interest in increasing the amount families can get from the Child Tax Credit. However, the proposed shuttering of free tax-filing programs like Direct File, which New America was involved in studying, will make it harder for families to access these benefits. The tax reconciliation bill would also restrict access to claiming the Child Tax Credit to families with Social Security numbers as a way to deter immigrants from accessing such benefits.
The Senate Finance Committee questioned Billy Young, President Trump’s nominee for Internal Revenue Service commissioner, about his plans for the beleaguered agency and promotion of dubious “tribal tax credits” and Employee Retention Tax Credits during a long-awaited confirmation hearing Tuesday after a series of acting commissioners temporarily held the role.
Trump announced in December he planned to name Long, a former Republican congressman from Missouri, as the next IRS commissioner, even though then-commissioner Danny Werfel’s term wasn’t scheduled to end until November 2027. Since then, the role has been filled by four acting commissioners who have faced pressures to accept drastic staff cuts at the agency and share taxpayer data with immigration authorities.
Long insisted during the confirmation hearing that he would defend the integrity of the IRS and maintain an open door policy, emulating the example of former commissioner Charles Rossotti, who served from 1997 to 2002.
“If confirmed, I will implement a comprehensive plan aimed at enhancing the IRS, but also one that develops a new culture at the agency,” he said in his opening statement. “I am eager to implement the necessary changes to maximize our effectiveness, while also remaining transparent with both Congress and taxpayers. It is important to also recognize the dedicated professionals currently at the IRS whose hard work too often goes unnoticed. It is my pledge that we will invest in retaining skilled members of the team. This does not mean a bloated agency, but an efficient one where employees have the tools they need to succeed.”
Committee chairman Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, expects to see changes at the agency. “Congressman Long is very clear that he will make himself available to all IRS employees, no matter their seniority,” Crapo said in his opening statement. “Moreover, he wants to implement a top-down culture change at the agency. This sea change will benefit American taxpayers, who too often view the IRS as foe, rather than friend. Congressman Long knows, from years of experience in the House, that to be a successful Commissioner, he must be a valuable partner in Congress’ efforts to ensure that new tax legislation is implemented and administered as Congress intends it to be. I am also confident that he will be fully transparent and responsive to Congress and the American people.”
Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Oregon, the top Democrat on the committee, questioned Long about his promotion of “tribal tax credits” and the fraud-plagued ERTC. “Most of Congressman Long’s experience with tax issues came after he left Congress, when he dove headlong into the tax scam industry,” he said in his opening statement. “Cashing in on the credibility of his election certificates, he raked in referral fees steering clients to firms that sold faked tax shelters and pushing small businesses to unknowingly commit tax fraud.”
Wyden asked Long about the $65,000 he earned from referring friends to tax promoters who claimed they had acquired income tax credits issued to a Native American tribe and then sold the tax credits to investors. “There’s a problem. The IRS said in March that the credits do not exist. They’re fake. They are a scam. Now you’re asking to be put in charge of the IRS, and the IRS confirms that these aren’t real. Tell the committee, do you believe these so-called tribal tax credits actually exist?”
Long insisted his only involvement with the credit was to connect interested friends and offer to put them on a Zoom call with someone, but he was not on the Zoom calls himself. Wyden pressed him on whether the tax credits actually exist.
“I think the jury’s still out on that,” Long admitted. “I know since 2022 they’ve been accepting them, so now they claim that they’re not. I think that all this is going to play out, and I want to have it investigated, just as you do. I know you’re very interested in this subject. I am too.”
Wyden also asked about $165,000 in campaign donations that went to Long’s unsuccessful 2022 Senate campaign after Trump named him as the next IRS commissioner. Long insisted he had followed guidelines from the Federal Election Commission. “You know as well as I do, anytime you’re dealing with the FEC, you have to follow FEC guidelines, and that’s exactly what I did all the way,” he said.
Wyden then asked him about his work with promoters of the Employee Retention Tax Credit. “You stated on a YouTube video that everybody qualifies for the Employee Retention Tax Credit, and you urge listeners to ignore CPAs that said they didn’t qualify. Do you really think everybody qualifies?”
“If you listen to that video, I hate to correct you, but I didn’t say everyone qualifies,” Long responded. “I said virtually everyone qualifies, meaning most people.”
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Massachusetts, and other Democrats also questioned Long about whether he would follow Trump’s orders to audit certain taxpayers or remove the tax-exempt status of organizations, even if it violated the law. Long insisted he would follow the law but declined to explicitly say whether he would defy an order from Trump.
“I don’t intend to let anybody direct me to start an audit for political reasons,” he said.
Minnesota approved a bill on Monday night to create additional pathways to CPA licensure, and it awaits the signature of Gov. Tim Walz.
As part of an omnibus bill, Senate File 3045, it creates two new pathways to CPA licensure: a bachelor’s degree plus two years of experience, or a master’s degree plus one year of experience. The new pathways will be effective Jan. 1, 2026.
The bill sunsets the current 150-hour credit rule after June 30, 2030, and establishes automatic mobility and practice privileges one day following the bill’s ratification. All candidates must still pass all parts of the CPA exam.
Minnesota State Capitol building in St. Paul
Jill Clardy/stock.adobe.com
“It’s a step forward in the right direction,” said Geno Fragnito, government relations director at the Minnesota Society of CPAs. “It allows some flexibility to hopefully bring in people who are on the fence about whether they could afford the extra year of education and whether the accounting profession fit into their long-term goals because of that.”
Generally, the governor has 14 days to act on the presented bill. Otherwise, without any action, the bill becomes law. Minnesota is one of more than a dozen states that have already passed changes to licensure requirements in an ongoing effort to address the profession’s talent shortage.
Minnesota was the first state to propose licensing changes in December 2022.
“Initial strong opposition eventually turned into support as more professionals, state societies, universities, government entities and businesses rallied behind broadening pathways to CPA licensure with the first state, Ohio, passing its law in January,” said an MNCPA blog post.
“There were a lot of people — chairs ahead of me and other people on the board and at the Minnesota society — that have done a ton of work on this and really deserve a lot of credit for all of the conversations they had and the testifying they did,” said MNCPA chair Eric O’Link. “We’re very appreciative of our legislative sponsors and everybody who helped make it a reality.”