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Bitcoin, crypto to drive Nasdaq 100 gains instead of Big Tech argument

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NASDAQ President on crypto and options explosions

The tech-driven Nasdaq 100 may be undergoing a historic shift as it turns 40 this week.

According to Strategas Securities’ Todd Sohn, cryptocurrency companies could fuel the next wave of gains.

“Bitcoin is to crypto as the QQQ … is to technology type stocks,” the firm’s exchange-traded fund and technical strategist told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “Bitcoin is going to be the biggest. The Qs will be the biggest.”

As of Thursday’s close, the Nasdaq 100 is up 17,106% since its Jan. 31,1985, inception. President Donald Trump‘s election helped fuel bitcoin record highs due to high hopes on deregulation. The cryptocurrency is trading around the $104,000 level.

Sohn thinks a buildout of the crypto universe is already taking shape.

“I think that’s already happening based on some of the recent filings we’ve seen,” he said.

Sohn also dives into the popularity of the crypto options business.

“With crypto, you can now build out a risk management,” said Sohn. “Say … I want to gain some upside, but I would like income. So, I’m going to buy a covered call crypto ETF … just to limit any volatility and keep the weekly or monthly income streams coming. So, this is all sort of important stuff that’s going to keep happening via [the] Nasdaq.”

The crypto ETF market has been booming. According to FactSet, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), which was launched on Jan. 5, 2024, and trades on the Nasdaq, has amassed more than $58 billion in assets as of Tuesday.

Nasdaq President Nelson Griggs sees regulatory clarity as a key factor in crypto’s future growth.

“A whole sector gets developed around something like digital crypto. And now potentially having more clarity on the rules of what it actually is going to be,” Griggs said in the same interview.

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Commerzbank touts record profit, launches buyback as it wards off UniCredit

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A “mild recession” is on the cards, according to Commerzbank CEO Manfred Knof.

Picture Alliance | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

Commerzbank on Friday unexpectedly released quarterly results, touting “record” annual profit and announcing a new share buyback scheme.

The bank said it achieved a 20% increase in net profit to 2.68 billion euros ($2.78 billion) in 2024. This compares with a $2.47 billion net profit forecast for the period, according to a consensus estimate cited by Reuters.

The group laid out intentions to repurchase 400 million euros of shares and proposed to lift its dividend payout to 0.65 euros per share, compared with 0.35 euros per share in the previous year.

Shares in the lender were up 2% at 2:10 p.m. London time, following the release.

Other annual highlights included net income of 8.33 billion euros in 2024, versus 8.37 billion euros in the previous year, with the bank noting it benefitted from foreign exchange valuation effects in the fourth quarter. Its return on tangible equity — a measure of profit performance — picked up to 9.2% in 2024 from 7.7% in 2023, exceeding the group’s target of hitting at least 8%.

The group had originally listed plans to publish its fourth-quarter and annual earnings on Feb. 13, when it also intends to deliver its annual strategy update and outlook. The early release falls in step with German legal requirements when the amount of capital return significantly surpasses the expectations of capital markets.

The results come as Commerzbank has been making a case to stand alone, after a surprise stake build from Italy’s second-largest lender UniCredit stoked market speculation of interest in a potential takeover. UniCredit now owns a direct 9.5% stake and a 18.5% stake via derivatives in Commerzbank, after first building its stake in September, then subsequently increasing its position.

The move has been met with resistance from the German government, whose Finance Minister Jörg Kukies criticized UniCredit’s “very aggressive, very opaque” bid in a CNBC interview last week.

“We have exceeded our capital return promise to our shareholders,” said Commerzbank CEO Bettina Orlopp in a statement accompanying the results, citing cost management and growth initiatives as driving the profit increase.

“Thanks to increasing profitability and new growth initiatives, we will further enhance capital return in the coming years. Commerzbank is and remains an attractive investment,” she noted.

Since its September overture, UniCredit has also launched a takeover bid for domestic Italian peer Banco BPM, raising questions on whether it will press ahead with a domestic or German venture.

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Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: AAPL, INTC, TEAM, DECK

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