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As Dow nears 40,000, here’s what experts say to do in case of a pullback

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A man sits on the Wall street bull near the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on November 24, 2020 in New York City.

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The stock market could hit a milestone if the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaches 40,000.

However, even as stocks have climbed higher, investors are worried there could be a pullback, financial advisors say.

They’re not alone in those concerns.

A recent CNBC survey of investment professionals found 61% think the market has run too far too fast and a market drop could be coming.

“It does feel like we’re at an inflection point where things could go either way,” said Christine Benz, director of personal finance and retirement planning at Morningstar.

Will there be a pullback?

Expect a short-term pullback after S&P 500's strong quarter: Evans May Wealth managing partner

Will the election hurt the markets?

Investors are jittery that the presidential election results may throw the markets off track, surveys show.

But experts say those worries are misguided.

“It is really very hard to find any evidence in the data that politics is a long-term determinant of market performance,” Kourkafas said.

However, there may be increased volatility in the months preceding the election, he said.

What’s unique this time around is we are already familiar with both of the likely candidates — current President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump — and the markets have performed equally well under both leaders, he said.

Instead, the outlook may depend more on other factors such as interest rates, corporate earnings and economic growth, he said.

Financial advisors including Louis Barajas, a CFP and enrolled agent, said their clients are concerned the election may affect their portfolios.

“I tell them, ‘Listen, presidents come, presidents go, the economy’s going to change. But in the long term, the market tends to be up,'” said Barajas, who is CEO of International Private Wealth Advisors in Irvine, California, and also a member of the CNBC FA Council.

Barajas said he steers his clients to focus on their personal goals rather than on outside events.

How to make sure you’re protected ‘no matter what happens’

Today’s market uncertainty is a reminder of the value of humility, said Morningstar’s Benz.

And the best way to express humility in portfolios is to diversify, she said.

“No matter what happens, we’re reasonably well protected,” Benz said.

For young investors, that may mean moving away from U.S. stocks to non-U.S. holdings, she said. That may be done through a fund that reflects global market capitalization, such as the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF.

Older investors may want to take advantage of higher fixed-income yields and add safer assets to their portfolios, she said. That can include cash and short- and intermediate-term high-quality bonds to build a runway to spend from, even if stocks do go down.

“You can have a safer portfolio and expect to earn a decent rate of return today,” Benz said.

As part of its National Financial Literacy Month efforts, CNBC will be featuring stories throughout the month dedicated to helping people manage, grow and protect their money so they can truly live ambitiously.

If you’re already in retirement and spending from your portfolio, it’s worth having those safeguards in place.

Finding the right mix of assets will depend on your personal timeline.

For financial goals that aren’t at least five years away, it makes no sense to invest in the stock market, Jenkin said.

To test your own portfolio allocation based on your age, Jenkin suggested following the rule of 120 – subtract your age from that number to find out how you should be invested. So if you’re 60 years old, for example, a 60% allocation to stocks may make sense.

When it comes to revisiting your portfolio allocations, it’s wise to set your own schedule rather than react to market or other news events.

“Make a plan to do that once a year or so,” Benz said.

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Here’s why the U.S. retirement system isn’t among the world’s best

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The U.S. retirement system doesn’t get high marks relative to other nations.

In fact, the U.S. got a C+ grade and ranked No. 29 out of 48 global pension systems in 2024, according to the annual Mercer CFA Institute Global Pension Index, released Tuesday. It analyzed both public and private sources of retirement funds, like Social Security and 401(k) plans.

A similar index compiled by Natixis Investment Management puts the U.S. at No. 22 out of 44 nations this year. Its position has declined from a decade ago, when it ranked No. 18.

“I think [a C+ grade] would describe a rating where there is a lot of room for improvement,” said Christine Mahoney, global retirement leader at Mercer, a consulting firm.

The Netherlands placed No. 1, followed by Iceland, Denmark and Israel, respectively, which all received “A” grades, according to Mercer. Singapore, Australia, Finland and Norway got a B+.

Fourteen nations — Chile, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Uruguay, New Zealand, Belgium, Mexico, Canada, Ireland, France, Germany, Croatia and Portugal — got a B.

CNBC Retirement Survey: 44% of workers are 'cautiously optimistic' about reaching retirement goals

Of course, retirement systems differ since they address a nation’s unique economies, social and cultural norms, politics and history, according to the Mercer report. However, there are certain traits that can generally determine how well older citizens fare financially, the report found.

The U.S. system is often referred to as a three-legged stool, consisting of Social Security, workplace retirement plans and individual savings.

The lackluster standing by the U.S. in the world is largely due to a sizable gap in the share of people who have access to a workplace retirement plan, and for the ample opportunities for “leakage” of savings from accounts before retirement, Mahoney said.

Employers aren’t required to offer a retirement plan like a pension or 401(k) plan to workers. About 72% of workers in the private sector had access to one in March 2024, and about half (53%) participated, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.  

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“The people who have [a plan], it’s probably pretty good on average, but you have a lot of people who have nothing,” Mahoney said.

By contrast, some of the highest-ranked countries like the Netherlands “cover essentially all workers in the country,” said Graham Pearce, Mercer’s global defined benefit segment leader.

Additionally, top-rated nations generally have greater restrictions relative to the U.S. on how much cash citizens can withdraw before retirement, Pearce explained.

American workers can withdraw their 401(k) savings when they switch jobs, for example.

About 40% of workers who leave a job cash out “prematurely” each year, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute. A separate academic study from 2022 examined more than 160,000 U.S. employees who left their jobs from 2014 to 2016, and found that about 41% cashed out at least some of their 401(k) — and 85% completely drained their balance.

Employers are also legally allowed to cash out small 401(k) balances and send workers a check.

While the U.S. might offer more flexibility to people who need to tap their funds in case of emergencies, for example, this so-called leakage also reduces the amount of savings they have available in old age, experts said.

“If you’re someone who moves through jobs, has low savings rates and leakage, it makes it difficult to build your own retirement nest egg,” said David Blanchett, head of retirement research at PGIM, Prudential’s investment management arm.

Social Security is considered a major income source for most older Americans, providing the majority of their retirement income for a significant portion of the population over 65 years old.

To that point, about nine out of 10 people aged 65 and older were receiving a Social Security benefit as of June 30, according to the Social Security Administration.

Social Security benefits are generally tied to a worker’s wage and work history, Blanchett said. For example, the amount is pegged to a worker’s 35-highest years of pay.

While benefits are progressive, meaning lower earners generally replace a bigger share of their pre-retirement paychecks than higher earners, Social Security’s minimum benefit is lesser than other nations, like those in Scandinavia, with public retirement programs, Blanchett said.

“It’s less of a safety net,” he said.

“There’s something to be said that, as a public pension benefit, increasing the minimum benefit for all retirees would strengthen the retirement resiliency for all Americans,” Blanchett said.

That said, policymakers are trying to resolve some of these issues.

For example, 17 states have established so-called auto-IRA programs in a bid to close the coverage gap, according to the Georgetown University Center for Retirement Initiatives.

These programs generally require employers who don’t offer a workplace retirement plan to automatically enroll workers into the state plan and facilitate payroll deduction.

A recent federal law known as Secure 2.0 also expanded aspects of the retirement system. For example, it made more part-time workers eligible to participate in a 401(k) and raised the dollar threshold for employers to cash out balances for departing workers.

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Buying a home? Here are key steps to consider from top-ranked advisors

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Buying a home is often the biggest financial decision you’ll ever make.

It’s not just about choosing a place to live; it’s about making a long-term investment that will impact your financial future for years to come.

Therefore, if you are looking to buy a home, there are certain steps you should take to prepare for the purchase, according to several advisors ranked in CNBC’s 2024 Financial Advisor 100 List.

“Number one is doing that initial homework and financial planning,” said Brian Brady, vice president at Obermeyer Wood Investment Counsel in Aspen, Colorado. The firm ranks No. 23 on the 2024 CNBC FA 100 list. 

Most important, it has to be a “smart financial decision” that makes the most sense for you, explained Stephen Cohn, co-founder and co-president of Sage Financial Group in West Conshohocken, Pennsylvania. The firm ranks No. 61 on the 2024 CNBC FA 100 list.

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“I run into a lot of first-time homebuyers, friends, kids, acquaintances. They fall in love with the house, and it may not make sense for them financially,” said Ron Brock, managing director and chief financial officer at Sheaff Brock Investment Advisors in Indianapolis, Indiana. The firm ranks No. 7 on the 2024 CNBC FA 100 list.

He tells them: “Just be smart. Don’t be house poor.”

Here are some key steps to consider if you plan to buy a home:

1. Have a strong credit score

Make sure you have strong credit, said Shaun Williams, private wealth advisor and partner at Paragon Capital Management in Denver, Colorado. The firm ranks No. 38 on the 2024 CNBC FA 100 list. 

“The higher the credit score, the better the terms you’re going to get on the loan, and the lower the interest rate will be,” said Ryan D. Dennehy, a financial advisor at California Financial Advisors in San Ramon, California. The firm ranks No. 13 on the 2024 CNBC FA 100 list. 

For example, a FICO score ranging 760 to 850 might qualify for a 6.226% annual percentage rate, according to Bankate.com. That can translate to a $1,842 monthly payment, Bankrate found.

On the other hand, a FICO score of 620-639 might get a 7.815% APR, roughly amounting to a $2,163 monthly mortgage payment, per Bankrate examples. They are based on national averages for a 30-year fixed mortgage loan of $300,000.

You can start the process by paying down any existing debts that you have on time and in full, and avoid new loans as you get closer to buying a home, experts say.

2. Start saving for the down payment

While a 20% down payment is not required to buy a house, buyers try to put more money upfront to avoid mortgage insurance costs and potentially lower monthly payments.

In the third quarter of the year, the average down payment was 14.5%, and a median of $30,300, Realtor.com told CNBC.

In order to start saving for a down payment, you need to figure out your cash flow, or how much money is coming in versus going out every month, said Steven LaRosa, director and senior portfolio manager at Edgemoor Investment Advisors based in Bethesda, Maryland. The firm ranks No. 14 on the 2024 CNBC FA 100 list.

Also, try to maximize how much money you can save or put away towards the down payment, said LaRosa.

3. Boost your emergency savings

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3. Think about the lifestyle you want

Ask yourself what kind of lifestyle you look forward to, said Brady.

“Are you looking for a condo? Do you want a single-family home?” he said. 

Then you can focus on factors like location and price, said Brady. 

Meanwhile, some of the additional costs that come with owning a house are driven by where you live, like property taxes, utility and insurance costs, he said. 

In some areas, “it’s next to impossible” to get home insurance, said Brady. “And if you can [get home insurance] you’re paying quite a bit.

Nearly three-quarters, or 70.3%, of Florida homeowners and 51% of California homeowners say they or the area they live in has been affected by rising home insurance costs or changes in coverage in the past year, according to Redfin, an online real estate brokerage firm.

5. Factor in other homeownership costs

Owning a home goes far beyond the monthly mortgage payment.

You need to factor in additional costs, experts say. 

To that point, the costs of homeownership adds up to an average $18,118 annually, or $1,510 a month, according to a report by Bankrate.com. The national figure includes the average costs of property taxes, homeowner’s insurance, and electricity, internet and cable bills. Maintenance was estimated at 2% a year of the home value.

“Those are very significant additions that sometimes people glance over and don’t put enough weight on,” said Cohn.

As such costs are unlikely to decline as time goes on, it’s important to have an emergency fund for homeownership costs, experts say.

6. How long you plan to stay in the house

“We like to use a five to seven year minimum,” said Cohn. The longer you’re in a house, the more likely the fixed costs will amortize, or pay off, over time, he said. 

Additionally, in the early years of the loan, you’re mostly paying the interest rate, and not the loan itself, experts say. 

“You’re not accumulating any equity from putting money into the mortgage in the first 5 to 7 years,” said Cohn.

“If you start looking at how much goes to principal and how much goes to interest in the first several years, it’s probably all interest,” said Brock.

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What to do if you can’t pay taxes on Oct. 15 tax extension deadline

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The tax extension deadline has arrived and there are options if you still can’t pay your balance, tax experts say.

About 19 million U.S. taxpayers filed for an extension by the April 15 tax deadline, which bumped the filing due date to Oct. 15. But taxpayers affected by natural disasters may have even more time, with new deadlines ranging between Nov. 1 and as late as May 1, 2025, depending on location.

However, for federally declared disasters after April 15, filers were not granted more time to pay their tax bill. Penalties and interest on unpaid balances started accruing after the April 15 deadline.

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Many taxpayers wrongly assume that a tax extension provides more time to pay, experts say.

“That’s a surprise to a lot of people,” said Josh Youngblood, an enrolled agent and owner of The Youngblood Group, a Dallas-based tax firm. 

If you missed the tax deadline, the late payment penalty is 0.5% of your unpaid balance per month or partial month, capped at 25%. You will also incur interest on unpaid taxes.

By comparison, the failure-to-file penalty is 5% of unpaid taxes per month or partial month, up to 25%.

You have ‘various payment options’

The IRS has options if you can’t pay your taxes, “but you have to be current on your filing requirement,” said Tom O’Saben, an enrolled agent and director of tax content and government relations at the National Association of Tax Professionals.

After filing, there are “various payment options” online, and many filers will receive an immediate acceptance or rejection of payment plan requests without calling the IRS, according to the agency.

“If you owe less than $50,000, establishing a payment plan with the IRS is almost going to be automatic,” O’Saben said.

IRS online payment plans, or “installment agreements,” include:

  • Short-term payment plan: This may be an option if you owe less than $100,000, including tax, penalties and interest. You have up to 180 days to pay in full.
  • Long-term payment plan: This may be available if your balance is less than $50,000, including tax, penalties and interest. You must pay monthly, and you have up to 72 months to pay off the balance.

Although the late-payment penalty and interest will continue to accrue, an IRS payment plan could cut your late-payment fee in half while the agreement is in effect, according to the IRS.

One downside of IRS payment plans is future tax refunds could be used to offset your unpaid balance, O’Saben said.

‘Don’t ignore it because it won’t go away’

If you have unpaid taxes, you can expect notices from the IRS, and communication with the agency is key, experts say.

“Don’t ignore it because it won’t go away,” Youngblood said. “I’ve had clients come in, and they have a whole pile of unopened IRS letters.” 

“The IRS is not as bad as they think,” he added. “They actually want to work with people.”

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