Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, leaves the U.S. Capitol after a meeting with Republican members of the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee on the issue of de-banking on Feb. 13, 2025.
Dimon, the veteran CEO and chairman of the biggest U.S. bank by assets, explained his worldview during his bank’s annual investor day meeting in New York. He said he believes the risks of higher inflation and even stagflation aren’t properly represented by stock market values, which have staged a comeback from lows in April.
“We have huge deficits; we have what I consider almost complacent central banks,” Dimon said. “You all think they can manage all this. I don’t think” they can, he said.
“My own view is people feel pretty good because you haven’t seen effective tariffs” yet, Dimon said. “The market came down 10%, [it’s] back up 10%; that’s an extraordinary amount of complacency.”
Dimon’s comments follow Moody’s rating agency downgrading the U.S. credit rating on Friday over concerns about the government’s growing debt burden. Markets have been whipsawed the past few months over worries that President Donald Trump‘s trade policies will raise inflation and slow the world’s largest economy.
Dimon said Monday that he believed Wall Street earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies, which have already declined in the first weeks of Trump’s trade policies, will fall further as companies pull or lower guidance amid the uncertainty.
In six months, those projections will fall to 0% earnings growth after starting the year at around 12%, Dimon said. If that were to happen, stocks prices will likely fall.
“I think earnings estimates will come down, which means PE will come down,” Dimon said, referring to the “price to earnings” ratio tracked closely by stock market analysts.
The odds of stagflation, “which is basically a recession with inflation,” are roughly double what the market thinks, Dimon added.
Separately, one of Dimon’s top deputies said that corporate clients are still in “wait-and-see” mode when it comes to acquisitions and other deals.
Investment banking revenue is headed for a “mid-teens” percentage decline in the second quarter compared with the year-earlier period, while trading revenue was trending higher by a “mid-to-high” single digit percentage, said Troy Rohrbaugh, a co-head of the firm’s commercial and investment bank.
On the ever-present question of Dimon’s timeline to hand over the CEO reins to one of his deputies, Dimon said that nothing changed from his guidance last year, when he said he would likely remain for less than five more years.
“If I’m here for four more years, and maybe two more” as executive chairman, Dimon said, “that’s a long time.”
Of all the executive presentations given Monday, consumer banking chief Marianne Lake had the longest speaking time at a full hour. She is considered a top successor candidate, especially after Chief Operating Officer Jennifer Piepszak said she would not be seeking the top job.
Check out the companies making headlines before the opening bell on Wall Street. U.S. Steel — U.S. Steel shares jumped 5%s after President Donald Trump issued an executive order on Friday approving its merger with Japan’s Nippon Steel. The companies also signed a national security agreement that includes a golden share for the U.S government. Although U.S. Steel did not specify what powers the government would wield with its share, Trump said on Thursday that the golden share gives the U.S. president ” total control .” Roku — The streaming platform jumped 8.5% after announcing an exclusive partnership with Amazon that gives advertisers access to what the two called “the largest authenticated footprint in connected TV .” The agreement enables advertisers to reach roughly 80 million U.S. households through the Amazon platform. Advanced Micro Devices — The chipmaker added more than 2% after a price target increase from Piper Sandler. After AMD’s quarterly pre-quarter close call on Friday, Piper said it expects AMD’s AI business to surge after the third quarter when China-related charges have passed, and noted increased conviction among investors about a key hyperscaler client. EchoStar — The satellite company jumped more than 40% after Bloomberg News reported late Friday that President Donald Trump had pushed the head of the Federal Communications Commission to resolve a spectrum dispute. The company has threatened to file for bankrupty protection and claims FCC threats blocked its ability to decide on a 5G network buildout. Celsius — Shares of the energy drink company rallied about 4% after TD Cowen upgraded the stock to buy from hold , saying its “growth story is heating back up” and shares should trade higher this year. The investment bank said it confident in the Celsius brand, smooth integration of the company’s Alani Nu acquisition and wider distribution next year. Victoria’s Secret — Shares added 3% following a report that activist investor Barrington Capital Group has built a stake in the retailer. Barrington intends to push Victoria’s Secret to overhaul its board and refocus its business, the Wall Street Journal said, citing unnamed sources. Sage Therapeutics — Sage soared 35% after agreeing to be acquired by Supernus Pharmaceuticals in a deal worth $12 a share, or $795 million. The deal would accelerate diversify Supernus’ revenue base and add FDA-approved postpartum depression drug treatment Zurzuvae, according to a statement. Sage shareholders would receive $8.50 a share in cash and a non-tradable contingent value right payable upon certain specific milestones worth up to $3.50 per share. Sarepta Therapeutics — The biopharmaceutical company plunged more than 37% after Sarepta reported the death of a second patient receiving its Elevidys gene therapy for Duchenne muscular dystrophy. Sarepta halted shipments of Elevidys and is taking steps to improve safety for non-ambulatory patients. — CNBC’s Jesse Pound and Michelle Fox contributed reporting.
The long-running rivalry between the country’s top premium credit cards is about to heat up again.
JPMorgan Chase announced last week that a refresh of its Sapphire Reserve — the travel and dining rewards card that went viral when it arrived in 2016 — was imminent.
In response, American Express on Monday said that “major” changes were coming to its consumer and business Platinum cards later this year. While short on details, the New York-based card company said that its update would be its largest ever investment in a card refresh.
“We are going to double down on the things we know based on the data that our card members love,” said Amex President of U.S. Consumer Services Howard Grosfield in an interview. “But more importantly, we’ll bring a whole bunch of new and exciting benefits and value that will far, far, far exceed the annual fee.”
The new Platinum card will launch in the fall with enhanced benefits around lounges, dining and events, Grosfield said.
American Express pioneered the premium credit card space decades ago with cards that bundled perks at airlines and hotels with access to its own network of high-end airport lounges. But JPMorgan shook up the industry in 2016, igniting stiff competition among card issuers with a lavish sign-on bonus and other incentives for its Sapphire card.
The expectation among industry experts is that both companies will offer ever-longer lists of perks in travel, dining and experiences like concerts, while potentially raising their annual fees, as has been the pattern with recent updates.
The Platinum card has a $695 annual fee, while the Sapphire has a $550 fee.
On Reddit and other forums, card users circulated rumors that JPMorgan was hiking the annual fee on its Sapphire product to $795. A JPMorgan spokesperson declined to comment.
Huge waiting lines are seen in front of jewelry retailer stores at Yu Garden in Shanghai, China, on May 17, 2025, as the city offers consumption vouchers to stimulate consumer spending.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
China’s retail sales in May grew at their fastest rate since late 2023, data from National Bureau of Statistics showed Monday, in part helped by Labor Day and Dragon Boat holidays.
Retail sales last month jumped 6.4% from a year earlier, sharply beating analysts’ estimates for a 5% growth in a Reuters poll and rising from the 5.1% growth in the previous month.
Growth in industrial output slowed to 5.8% year on year in May from 6.1% in the prior month. The latest reading came in slightly weaker than analysts’ expectations for a 5.9% rise.
Fixed-asset investment, reported on a year-to-date basis, expanded 3.7% as of May from a year earlier, undershooting Reuters’ forecast for a 3.9% growth and slowing from a 4% growth in the first four months.
The urban survey-based unemployment rate in May came in at 5.0%, easing from 5.1% in April to the lowest level since November last year.
A tariff deal reached by Beijing and Washington in mid-May gave temporary relief to the country’s exports, prompting some businesses to frontload shipment while doubling down on alternative markets. Both sides struck a 90-day truce to roll back most of the triple-digit levies added on each other’s goods in early April.
China’s exports grew less than expected in May, though surging shipments to Southeast Asian nations, European Union countries and Africa helped offset the sharp decline in U.S.-bound goods. China’s exports to the U.S. plunged over 34% from a year ago, their sharpest drop since February 2020.
The past two months’ trade data indicated resilience in China’s exports, according to Goldman Sachs, as they highlighted “the difficulty for bilateral tariffs to meaningfully reduce total Chinese exports.”
Sluggish domestic demand stuck out as a more pressing issue for Chinese policymakers. Consumer prices have seen an year-on-year decline for four consecutive months, slumping 0.1% in May. Deflation in the factory-gate or producer prices has also deepened, falling 3.3% from a year ago.
However, Beijing may feel less urgency in rolling out additional easing steps as exports appear more resilient than expected and the GDP growth is on track to exceed 5% in the first half-year, Goldman said.
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