Connect with us

Finance

Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says markets are too complacent

Published

on

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, leaves the U.S. Capitol after a meeting with Republican members of the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee on the issue of de-banking on Feb. 13, 2025.

Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Monday that markets and central bankers underappreciate the risks created by record U.S. deficits, tariffs and international tensions.

Dimon, the veteran CEO and chairman of the biggest U.S. bank by assets, explained his worldview during his bank’s annual investor day meeting in New York. He said he believes the risks of higher inflation and even stagflation aren’t properly represented by stock market values, which have staged a comeback from lows in April.

“We have huge deficits; we have what I consider almost complacent central banks,” Dimon said. “You all think they can manage all this. I don’t think” they can, he said.

“My own view is people feel pretty good because you haven’t seen effective tariffs” yet, Dimon said. “The market came down 10%, [it’s] back up 10%; that’s an extraordinary amount of complacency.”

Dimon’s comments follow Moody’s rating agency downgrading the U.S. credit rating on Friday over concerns about the government’s growing debt burden. Markets have been whipsawed the past few months over worries that President Donald Trump‘s trade policies will raise inflation and slow the world’s largest economy.

Dimon said Monday that he believed Wall Street earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies, which have already declined in the first weeks of Trump’s trade policies, will fall further as companies pull or lower guidance amid the uncertainty.

In six months, those projections will fall to 0% earnings growth after starting the year at around 12%, Dimon said. If that were to happen, stocks prices will likely fall.

“I think earnings estimates will come down, which means PE will come down,” Dimon said, referring to the “price to earnings” ratio tracked closely by stock market analysts.

The odds of stagflation, “which is basically a recession with inflation,” are roughly double what the market thinks, Dimon added.

Separately, one of Dimon’s top deputies said that corporate clients are still in “wait-and-see” mode when it comes to acquisitions and other deals.

Investment banking revenue is headed for a “mid-teens” percentage decline in the second quarter compared with the year-earlier period, while trading revenue was trending higher by a “mid-to-high” single digit percentage, said Troy Rohrbaugh, a co-head of the firm’s commercial and investment bank.

On the ever-present question of Dimon’s timeline to hand over the CEO reins to one of his deputies, Dimon said that nothing changed from his guidance last year, when he said he would likely remain for less than five more years.

“If I’m here for four more years, and maybe two more” as executive chairman, Dimon said, “that’s a long time.”

Of all the executive presentations given Monday, consumer banking chief Marianne Lake had the longest speaking time at a full hour. She is considered a top successor candidate, especially after Chief Operating Officer Jennifer Piepszak said she would not be seeking the top job.

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Finance

U.S. Steel, Roku and more

Published

on

Continue Reading

Finance

Amex Platinum, Chase Sapphire get 2025 refresh

Published

on

Anna Barclay | Getty Images

The long-running rivalry between the country’s top premium credit cards is about to heat up again.

JPMorgan Chase announced last week that a refresh of its Sapphire Reserve — the travel and dining rewards card that went viral when it arrived in 2016 — was imminent.

In response, American Express on Monday said that “major” changes were coming to its consumer and business Platinum cards later this year. While short on details, the New York-based card company said that its update would be its largest ever investment in a card refresh.

“We are going to double down on the things we know based on the data that our card members love,” said Amex President of U.S. Consumer Services Howard Grosfield in an interview. “But more importantly, we’ll bring a whole bunch of new and exciting benefits and value that will far, far, far exceed the annual fee.”

The new Platinum card will launch in the fall with enhanced benefits around lounges, dining and events, Grosfield said.

American Express pioneered the premium credit card space decades ago with cards that bundled perks at airlines and hotels with access to its own network of high-end airport lounges. But JPMorgan shook up the industry in 2016, igniting stiff competition among card issuers with a lavish sign-on bonus and other incentives for its Sapphire card.

The expectation among industry experts is that both companies will offer ever-longer lists of perks in travel, dining and experiences like concerts, while potentially raising their annual fees, as has been the pattern with recent updates.

The Platinum card has a $695 annual fee, while the Sapphire has a $550 fee.

On Reddit and other forums, card users circulated rumors that JPMorgan was hiking the annual fee on its Sapphire product to $795. A JPMorgan spokesperson declined to comment.

Continue Reading

Finance

China retail sales, industrial output, fixed asset investment in May

Published

on

Huge waiting lines are seen in front of jewelry retailer stores at Yu Garden in Shanghai, China, on May 17, 2025, as the city offers consumption vouchers to stimulate consumer spending.

Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

China’s retail sales in May grew at their fastest rate since late 2023, data from National Bureau of Statistics showed Monday, in part helped by Labor Day and Dragon Boat holidays.

Retail sales last month jumped 6.4% from a year earlier, sharply beating analysts’ estimates for a 5% growth in a Reuters poll and rising from the 5.1% growth in the previous month.

Growth in industrial output slowed to 5.8% year on year in May from 6.1% in the prior month. The latest reading came in slightly weaker than analysts’ expectations for a 5.9% rise.

Fixed-asset investment, reported on a year-to-date basis, expanded 3.7% as of May from a year earlier, undershooting Reuters’ forecast for a 3.9% growth and slowing from a 4% growth in the first four months.

The urban survey-based unemployment rate in May came in at 5.0%, easing from 5.1% in April to the lowest level since November last year.

A tariff deal reached by Beijing and Washington in mid-May gave temporary relief to the country’s exports, prompting some businesses to frontload shipment while doubling down on alternative markets. Both sides struck a 90-day truce to roll back most of the triple-digit levies added on each other’s goods in early April.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC last week that U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports will stay at their current level of 55%.

China’s exports grew less than expected in May, though surging shipments to Southeast Asian nations, European Union countries and Africa helped offset the sharp decline in U.S.-bound goods. China’s exports to the U.S. plunged over 34% from a year ago, their sharpest drop since February 2020.

The past two months’ trade data indicated resilience in China’s exports, according to Goldman Sachs, as they highlighted “the difficulty for bilateral tariffs to meaningfully reduce total Chinese exports.”

Sluggish domestic demand stuck out as a more pressing issue for Chinese policymakers. Consumer prices have seen an year-on-year decline for four consecutive months, slumping 0.1% in May. Deflation in the factory-gate or producer prices has also deepened, falling 3.3% from a year ago.

However, Beijing may feel less urgency in rolling out additional easing steps as exports appear more resilient than expected and the GDP growth is on track to exceed 5% in the first half-year, Goldman said.

This is breaking news. Please check back later for updates.

Continue Reading

Trending