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China may have to brace for a new wave of bond defaults, S&P says

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Residential buildings under construction at the Phoenix Palace project, developed by Country Garden Holdings Co., in Heyuan, Guangdong province, China in September 2023.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

BEIJING — China’s state-directed economy may be creating the conditions for a new wave of bond defaults that could come as soon as next year, according to an S&P Global Ratings report released Tuesday.

It would be the third round of corporate defaults in about a decade, the ratings agency pointed out.

It comes against a backdrop of extremely few defaults in China amid concerns about overall growth in the world’s second-largest economy.

“The real thing to watch for policymakers is whether the current directives are creating distorted incentives in the economy,” Charles Chang, greater China country lead at S&P Global Ratings, said in a phone interview Wednesday.

China’s corporate bond default rate fell to 0.2% in 2023, the lowest in at least 8 years and far below the global rate of about 2.6%, S&P data showed.

“To a certain extent this is not a good sign, because we see this divergence as something that’s not the result of the functioning of markets,” Chang said. “We’ve seen directives or guidance from the government in the past year to discourage defaults in the bond market.”

“The question is: When the guidance to avoid the defaults in the bond market [ends], what happens to the bond market?” he said, noting that’s something to watch out for next year.

Buying China 10-year government bond might not be a silly idea over the medium term: Strategist

Chinese authorities have in recent years emphasized the need to prevent financial risks.

But heavy-handed approaches to tackling problems, especially in the real estate sector, can have unintended consequences.

The property market slumped after Beijing’s crackdown on developers’ high reliance on debt in the last three years. The once-massive sector has dragged down the economy, while the property sector shows few signs of turning around.

Real estate led the latest wave of defaults between 2020 and 2024, according to S&P. Prior to that, their analysis showed that industrials and commodity firms led defaults in 2015 to 2019.

“The bigger issue for the government is whether the real estate market can stabilize and property prices can stabilize,” Chang said. “That can potentially ease off some of the negative wealth effects that we’ve been seeing since the middle of last year.”

Much of household wealth in China is in real estate, rather than other financial assets such as stocks.

Economic growth concerns

Bond defaults dropped in most sectors last year except for tech services, consumer and retail, S&P found.

“That flags potential vulnerabilities to the slowing growth we’re seeing right now,” Chang said.

China’s economy grew by 5.2% last year, and Beijing has set a target of around 5% in GDP growth for 2024. Analysts’ forecasts are generally near or below that pace, with expectations for further slowdown in the coming years from the double-digit growth of past decades.

Large levels of public, private and hidden debt in China have long raised concerns about the potential for systemic financial risks.

China’s debt problems, however, are not as pressing as the need for Beijing to address real estate issues in a broader “comprehensive strategy,” Vitor Gaspar, director of the fiscal affairs department at the International Monetary Fund, said at a press briefing last week.

He said other aspects of the strategy are China’s emphasis on innovation and productivity growth, as well as the need to strengthen social safety nets so that households will be more willing to spend.

It remains to be seen whether other sectors can offset the property sector’s drag on the economy, and bolster growth overall.

UBS on Tuesday upgraded MSCI China stocks to overweight due to better corporate earnings performance which are not affected by property market trends.

“The largest stocks in the China index have been generally fine on earnings/fundamentals. So China underperformance is purely due to valuation collapse,” Sunil Tirumalai, chief GEM equity strategist at UBS, said in a note. “What makes us more positive now on earnings are the early signs of pick up in consumption.”

The bank also upgraded its outlook on Hong Kong stocks.

On why UBS’s changed its view on China valuations, Tirumalai pointed to a “growing trend of China companies giving positive surprise on dividends/buybacks.

“This higher visibility of shareholder returns can be useful if global markets get more worried on geopolitics, and in higher-for-longer scenarios. We would keep an eye on the next leg of market reforms,” he added.

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Trump CFPB cuts reviewed by Fed inspector general

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Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Russell Vought attends a cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 10, 2025.

Nathan Howard | Reuters

The Federal Reserve’s inspector general is reviewing the Trump administration’s attempts to lay off nearly all Consumer Financial Protection Bureau employees and cancel the agency’s contracts, CNBC has learned.

The inspector general’s office told Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Sen. Andy Kim, D-N.J., that it was taking up their request to investigate the moves of the consumer agency’s new leadership, according to a June 6 letter seen by CNBC.

“We had already initiated work to review workforce reductions at the CFPB” in response to an earlier request from lawmakers, acting Inspector General Fred Gibson said in the letter. “We are expanding that work to include the CFPB’s canceled contracts.”

The letter confirms that key oversight arms of the U.S. government are now examining the whirlwind of activity at the bureau after Trump’s acting CFPB head Russell Vought took over in February. Vought told employees to halt work, while he and operatives from Elon Musk‘s Department of Government Efficiency sought to lay off most of the agency’s staff and end contracts with external providers.

That prompted Warren and Kim to ask the Fed inspector general and the Government Accountability Office to review the legality of Vought’s actions and the extent to which they hindered the CFPB’s mission. The GAO told the lawmakers in April that it would examine the matter.

“As Trump dismantles vital public services, an independent OIG investigation is essential to understand the damage done by this administration at the CFPB and ensure it can still fulfill its mandate to work on the people’s behalf and hold companies who try to cheat and scam them accountable,” Kim told CNBC in a statement.

The Fed IG office serves as an independent watchdog over both the Fed and the CFPB, and has the power to examine agency records, issue subpoenas and interview personnel. It can also refer criminal matters to the Department of Justice.

Soon after his inauguration, Trump fired more than 17 inspectors general across federal agencies. Spared in that purge was Michael Horowitz, the IG for the Justice Department since 2012, who this month was named the incoming watchdog for the Fed and CFPB.

Horowitz, who begins in his new role at the end of this month, was reportedly praised by Trump supporters for uncovering problems with the FBI’s handling of its probe into Trump’s 2016 campaign.

Meanwhile, the fate of the CFPB hinges on a looming decision from a federal appeals court. Judges temporarily halted Vought’s efforts to lay off employees, but are now considering the Trump administration’s appeal over its plans for the agency.

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