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China may have to brace for a new wave of bond defaults, S&P says

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Residential buildings under construction at the Phoenix Palace project, developed by Country Garden Holdings Co., in Heyuan, Guangdong province, China in September 2023.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

BEIJING — China’s state-directed economy may be creating the conditions for a new wave of bond defaults that could come as soon as next year, according to an S&P Global Ratings report released Tuesday.

It would be the third round of corporate defaults in about a decade, the ratings agency pointed out.

It comes against a backdrop of extremely few defaults in China amid concerns about overall growth in the world’s second-largest economy.

“The real thing to watch for policymakers is whether the current directives are creating distorted incentives in the economy,” Charles Chang, greater China country lead at S&P Global Ratings, said in a phone interview Wednesday.

China’s corporate bond default rate fell to 0.2% in 2023, the lowest in at least 8 years and far below the global rate of about 2.6%, S&P data showed.

“To a certain extent this is not a good sign, because we see this divergence as something that’s not the result of the functioning of markets,” Chang said. “We’ve seen directives or guidance from the government in the past year to discourage defaults in the bond market.”

“The question is: When the guidance to avoid the defaults in the bond market [ends], what happens to the bond market?” he said, noting that’s something to watch out for next year.

Buying China 10-year government bond might not be a silly idea over the medium term: Strategist

Chinese authorities have in recent years emphasized the need to prevent financial risks.

But heavy-handed approaches to tackling problems, especially in the real estate sector, can have unintended consequences.

The property market slumped after Beijing’s crackdown on developers’ high reliance on debt in the last three years. The once-massive sector has dragged down the economy, while the property sector shows few signs of turning around.

Real estate led the latest wave of defaults between 2020 and 2024, according to S&P. Prior to that, their analysis showed that industrials and commodity firms led defaults in 2015 to 2019.

“The bigger issue for the government is whether the real estate market can stabilize and property prices can stabilize,” Chang said. “That can potentially ease off some of the negative wealth effects that we’ve been seeing since the middle of last year.”

Much of household wealth in China is in real estate, rather than other financial assets such as stocks.

Economic growth concerns

Bond defaults dropped in most sectors last year except for tech services, consumer and retail, S&P found.

“That flags potential vulnerabilities to the slowing growth we’re seeing right now,” Chang said.

China’s economy grew by 5.2% last year, and Beijing has set a target of around 5% in GDP growth for 2024. Analysts’ forecasts are generally near or below that pace, with expectations for further slowdown in the coming years from the double-digit growth of past decades.

Large levels of public, private and hidden debt in China have long raised concerns about the potential for systemic financial risks.

China’s debt problems, however, are not as pressing as the need for Beijing to address real estate issues in a broader “comprehensive strategy,” Vitor Gaspar, director of the fiscal affairs department at the International Monetary Fund, said at a press briefing last week.

He said other aspects of the strategy are China’s emphasis on innovation and productivity growth, as well as the need to strengthen social safety nets so that households will be more willing to spend.

It remains to be seen whether other sectors can offset the property sector’s drag on the economy, and bolster growth overall.

UBS on Tuesday upgraded MSCI China stocks to overweight due to better corporate earnings performance which are not affected by property market trends.

“The largest stocks in the China index have been generally fine on earnings/fundamentals. So China underperformance is purely due to valuation collapse,” Sunil Tirumalai, chief GEM equity strategist at UBS, said in a note. “What makes us more positive now on earnings are the early signs of pick up in consumption.”

The bank also upgraded its outlook on Hong Kong stocks.

On why UBS’s changed its view on China valuations, Tirumalai pointed to a “growing trend of China companies giving positive surprise on dividends/buybacks.

“This higher visibility of shareholder returns can be useful if global markets get more worried on geopolitics, and in higher-for-longer scenarios. We would keep an eye on the next leg of market reforms,” he added.

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Apple iPhone assembly in India won’t cushion China tariffs: Moffett

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Street's biggest Apple bear says a production move to India is unrealistic

Leading analyst Craig Moffett suggests any plans to move U.S. iPhone assembly to India is unrealistic.

Moffett, ranked as a top analyst multiple times by Institutional Investor, sent a memo to clients on Friday after the Financial Times reported Apple was aiming to shift production toward India from China by the end of next year.

He’s questioning how a move could bring down costs tied to tariffs because the iPhone components would still be made in China.

“You have a tremendous menu of problems created by tariffs, and moving to India doesn’t solve all the problems. Now granted, it helps to some degree,” the MoffettNathanson partner and senior managing director told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Friday. “I would question how that’s going to work.”

Moffett contends it’s not so easy to diversify to India — telling clients Apple’s supply chain would still be anchored in China and would likely face resistance.

“The bottom line is a global trade war is a two-front battle, impacting costs and sales. Moving assembly to India might (and we emphasize might) help with the former. The latter may ultimately be the bigger issue,” he wrote to clients.

Moffett cut his Apple price target on Monday to $141 from $184 a share. It implies a 33% drop from Friday’s close. The price target is also the Street low, according to FactSet.

“I don’t think of myself as the biggest Apple bear,” he said. “I think quite highly of Apple. My concern about Apple has been the valuation more than the company.”

Moffett has had a “sell” rating on Apple since Jan. 7. Since then, the company’s shares are down about 14%.

“None of this is because Apple is a bad company. They still have a great balance sheet [and] a great consumer franchise,” he said. “It’s just the reality of there are no good answers when you are a product company, and your products are going to be significantly tariffed, and you’re heading into a market that is likely to have at least some deceleration in consumer demand because of the macro economy.”

Moffett notes Apple also isn’t getting help from its carriers to cushion the blow of tariffs.

“You also have the demand destruction that’s created by potentially higher prices. Remember, you had AT&T, Verizon and T. Mobile all this week come out and say we’re not going to underwrite the additional cost of tariff [on] handsets,” he added. “The consumer is going to have to pay for that. So, you’re going to have some demand destruction that’s going to show up in even longer holding periods and slower upgrade rates — all of which probably trims estimates next year’s consensus.”

According to Moffett, the backlash against Apple in China over U.S. tariffs will also hurt iPhone sales.

“It’s a very real problem,” Moffett said. “Volumes are really going to the Huaweis and the Vivos and the local competitors in China rather than to Apple.”

Apple stock is coming off a winning week — up more than 6%. It comes ahead of the iPhone maker’s quarterly earnings report due next Thursday after the market close.

To get more personalized investment strategies, join us for our next “Fast Money” Live event on Thursday, June 5, at the Nasdaq in Times Square.

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Warren Buffett’s top stock picks come with 15% income bonus in new ETF

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Invest like Buffett: VistaShares CEO on new ETF that follows the investor

In a year that hasn’t been kind to many big-name stocks, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is standing near the top. Berkshire shares have posted a 17% return year-to-date, while the S&P 500 index is down 6%.

That performance places Berkshire among the top 10% of the U.S. market’s large-cap leaders, and the run has been getting Buffett more attention ahead of next weekend’s annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting in Omaha, Nebraska. It’s also good timing for the recently launched VistaShares Target 15 Berkshire Select Income ETF (OMAH), which holds the top 20 most heavily weighted stocks in Berkshire Hathaway, as well as shares of Berkshire Hathaway. 

Berkshire is currently the biggest holding in the ETF, at 10.6% of the fund. Other top holdings in the ETF from among the ranks of Berkshire’s biggest bets include Apple, American Express, Kroger, VeriSign, Bank of America, Citigroup, Visa and of course Coca-Cola, a long time favorite of the man known as the Oracle of Omaha.

“It’s a really well-balanced portfolio chosen by the most successful investor the world has ever seen,” Adam Patti, CEO of VistaShares, said in an appearance this week on CNBC’s “ETF Edge.”

Berkshire’s outperformance of the S&P 500 isn’t limited to 2025. Buffett’s stock has tripled the performance of the market over the past year, and its 185% return over the past five years is more than double the performance of the S&P 500.

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Berkshire Hathaway is one of 2025’s top performing stocks.

In addition to this long-term track record of success in the market, Berkshire Hathaway is getting a lot of attention right now for the record amount of cash Buffett is holding as he trimmed stakes in big stocks including Apple, which has proven to be a great strategy. The S&P 500 has experienced extreme short-term volatility since President Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20. Even after a recent recovery, the S&P is still down 8% since the start of Trump’s second term.

“The market has been momentum driven for many years, the switch has flipped and we’re looking at quality in terms of exposure, and Berkshire Hathaway has performed incredibly well this year, handily outperforming the S&P 500,” said Patti.

Berkshire Hathaway famously doesn’t pay a dividend, with Buffett holding firm over many decades in the belief that he can re-invest cash to create more value for shareholders. In a letter to shareholders in February, Buffett wrote that Berkshire shareholders “can rest assured that we will forever deploy a substantial majority of their money in equities — mostly American equities.”

The lack of a dividend payment has been an issue over the years for some shareholders at Berkshire who do want income from the market, according to Patti, who added that his firm conducted research among investors in designing the ETF. “Who doesn’t want to invest like Buffett, but with income?” he said.

So, in addition to being tied to the performance of Berkshire and the stock picks of Buffett, the VistaShares Target 15 Berkshire Select Income ETF is designed to produce income of 15% annually through a strategy of selling call options and distributing monthly payments of 1.25% to shareholders. This income strategy has become more popular in the ETF space, with more asset managers launching funds to capture income opportunities and more investors adopting the approach amid market volatility.

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More Americans buy groceries with buy now, pay later loans

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People shop for produce at a Walmart in Rosemead, California, on April 11, 2025. 

Frederic J. Brown | Afp | Getty Images

A growing number of Americans are using buy now, pay later loans to buy groceries, and more people are paying those bills late, according to new Lending Tree data released Friday

The figures are the latest indicator that some consumers are cracking under the pressure of an uncertain economy and are having trouble affording essentials such as groceries as they contend with persistent inflation, high interest rates and concerns around tariffs

In a survey conducted April 2-3 of 2,000 U.S. consumers ages 18 to 79, around half reported having used buy now, pay later services. Of those consumers, 25% of respondents said they were using BNPL loans to buy groceries, up from 14% in 2024 and 21% in 2023, the firm said.

Meanwhile, 41% of respondents said they made a late payment on a BNPL loan in the past year, up from 34% in the year prior, the survey found.

Lending Tree’s chief consumer finance analyst, Matt Schulz, said that of those respondents who said they paid a BNPL bill late, most said it was by no more than a week or so.

“A lot of people are struggling and looking for ways to extend their budget,” Schulz said. “Inflation is still a problem. Interest rates are still really high. There’s a lot of uncertainty around tariffs and other economic issues, and it’s all going to add up to a lot of people looking for ways to extend their budget however they can.”

“For an awful lot of people, that’s going to mean leaning on buy now, pay later loans, for better or for worse,” he said. 

He stopped short of calling the results a recession indicator but said conditions are expected to decline further before they get better.  

“I do think it’s going to get worse, at least in the short term,” said Schulz. “I don’t know that there’s a whole lot of reason to expect these numbers to get better in the near term.”

The loans, which allow consumers to split up purchases into several smaller payments, are a popular alternative to credit cards because they often don’t charge interest. But consumers can see high fees if they pay late, and they can run into problems if they stack up multiple loans. In Lending Tree’s survey, 60% of BNPL users said they’ve had multiple loans at once, with nearly a fourth saying they have held three or more at once. 

“It’s just really important for people to be cautious when they use these things, because even though they can be a really good interest-free tool to help you kind of make it from one paycheck to the next, there’s also a lot of risk in mismanaging it,” said Schulz. “So people should tread lightly.” 

Lending Tree’s findings come after Billboard revealed that about 60% of general admission Coachella attendees funded their concert tickets with buy now, pay later loans, sparking a debate on the state of the economy and how consumers are using debt to keep up their lifestyles. A recent announcement from DoorDash that it would begin accepting BNPL financing from Klarna for food deliveries led to widespread mockery and jokes that Americans were struggling so much that they were now being forced to finance cheeseburgers and burritos.

Over the last few years, consumers have held up relatively well, even in the face of persistent inflation and high interest rates, because the job market was strong and wage growth had kept up with inflation — at least for some workers. 

Earlier this year, however, large companies including Walmart and Delta Airlines began warning that the dynamic had begun to shift and they were seeing cracks in demand, which was leading to worse-than-expected sales forecasts. 

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