Finance
China may have to brace for a new wave of bond defaults, S&P says
Residential buildings under construction at the Phoenix Palace project, developed by Country Garden Holdings Co., in Heyuan, Guangdong province, China in September 2023.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
BEIJING — China’s state-directed economy may be creating the conditions for a new wave of bond defaults that could come as soon as next year, according to an S&P Global Ratings report released Tuesday.
It would be the third round of corporate defaults in about a decade, the ratings agency pointed out.
It comes against a backdrop of extremely few defaults in China amid concerns about overall growth in the world’s second-largest economy.
“The real thing to watch for policymakers is whether the current directives are creating distorted incentives in the economy,” Charles Chang, greater China country lead at S&P Global Ratings, said in a phone interview Wednesday.
China’s corporate bond default rate fell to 0.2% in 2023, the lowest in at least 8 years and far below the global rate of about 2.6%, S&P data showed.
“To a certain extent this is not a good sign, because we see this divergence as something that’s not the result of the functioning of markets,” Chang said. “We’ve seen directives or guidance from the government in the past year to discourage defaults in the bond market.”
“The question is: When the guidance to avoid the defaults in the bond market [ends], what happens to the bond market?” he said, noting that’s something to watch out for next year.
Chinese authorities have in recent years emphasized the need to prevent financial risks.
But heavy-handed approaches to tackling problems, especially in the real estate sector, can have unintended consequences.
The property market slumped after Beijing’s crackdown on developers’ high reliance on debt in the last three years. The once-massive sector has dragged down the economy, while the property sector shows few signs of turning around.
Real estate led the latest wave of defaults between 2020 and 2024, according to S&P. Prior to that, their analysis showed that industrials and commodity firms led defaults in 2015 to 2019.
“The bigger issue for the government is whether the real estate market can stabilize and property prices can stabilize,” Chang said. “That can potentially ease off some of the negative wealth effects that we’ve been seeing since the middle of last year.”
Much of household wealth in China is in real estate, rather than other financial assets such as stocks.
Economic growth concerns
Bond defaults dropped in most sectors last year except for tech services, consumer and retail, S&P found.
“That flags potential vulnerabilities to the slowing growth we’re seeing right now,” Chang said.
China’s economy grew by 5.2% last year, and Beijing has set a target of around 5% in GDP growth for 2024. Analysts’ forecasts are generally near or below that pace, with expectations for further slowdown in the coming years from the double-digit growth of past decades.
Large levels of public, private and hidden debt in China have long raised concerns about the potential for systemic financial risks.
China’s debt problems, however, are not as pressing as the need for Beijing to address real estate issues in a broader “comprehensive strategy,” Vitor Gaspar, director of the fiscal affairs department at the International Monetary Fund, said at a press briefing last week.
He said other aspects of the strategy are China’s emphasis on innovation and productivity growth, as well as the need to strengthen social safety nets so that households will be more willing to spend.
It remains to be seen whether other sectors can offset the property sector’s drag on the economy, and bolster growth overall.
UBS on Tuesday upgraded MSCI China stocks to overweight due to better corporate earnings performance which are not affected by property market trends.
“The largest stocks in the China index have been generally fine on earnings/fundamentals. So China underperformance is purely due to valuation collapse,” Sunil Tirumalai, chief GEM equity strategist at UBS, said in a note. “What makes us more positive now on earnings are the early signs of pick up in consumption.”
The bank also upgraded its outlook on Hong Kong stocks.
On why UBS’s changed its view on China valuations, Tirumalai pointed to a “growing trend of China companies giving positive surprise on dividends/buybacks.“
“This higher visibility of shareholder returns can be useful if global markets get more worried on geopolitics, and in higher-for-longer scenarios. We would keep an eye on the next leg of market reforms,” he added.
‘Talk Money to Me’ author Jason Tartick joins ‘The Big Money Show’ to discuss his new book, shedding light on the importance of discussing your finances with your partner.
How people tackle their finances can vary but, according to new research from PYMNTS, there are two ways that are most common.
PYMNTS found just 40% of American consumers are “planners,” meaning their strategy for money had more foresight.
That figure has gone down compared to the roughly half who tackled their personal finances that way in February of last year, according to the outlet.
A couple reviews their finances inside their home. (iStock)
Meanwhile, for 60% of consumers, financial matters are dealt with as they come, earning them the moniker “reactors,” PYMNTS reported.
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For the former, they tended to have at least $2,500 saved and keep their credit card balances below $2,000 on average, as well as make regular payments on their balances, according to the outlet.
The latter typically amassed higher balances and had lower amounts of savings, per PYMNTS. They also reported taking care of their credit card balances less frequently.
The drop in “planners” could mean consumers are feeling more pain in their wallets, according to PYMNTS.
The two groups typically had different priorities when it came to money, with retirement being front of mind for many so-called “planners” and knocking down debt being a focus for “reactors,” per the outlet.
A person puts money into a retirement savings jar. (iStock)
A separate report released earlier this month by Fidelity Investments found the average 401(k) account balance in the first quarter was $127,100, while the balances for IRA and 403(b) accounts averaged $121,983 and $115,424, respectively.
RETIREMENT ACCOUNT BALANCES DIP IN 1ST QUARTER, BUT SAVERS KEEP CONTRIBUTING
Northwestern Mutual found in mid-April that Americans think they need $1.26 million saved to retire “comfortably.”
PYMNTS reported that nearly one-third of financially-reactive consumers reportedly identified reducing their debt as a top priority.
Americans collectively had $18.2 trillion in debt as of the first quarter of the year, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
For the other type of consumer, investments and savings accounted for 12% of what they financially allocated for themselves on a monthly basis, PYMNTS also reported.
DEBT CRISIS DEEPENS AS 1 IN 4 AMERICANS FORCED TO CHOOSE BETWEEN BILLS AND BASICS
Additionally, the survey shed light on how different generations stacked up in terms of how they tackled finances, according to the outlet.
For Generation Z, 73% of those within that age group were considered “reactors,” it said.
Members of the Baby Boomer generation, meanwhile, were more likely to be “planners,” with the survey pegging the share in that generation at 54%.
Couple working on their finances (iStock)
When it comes to income, more of those taking home big bucks have started seeing themselves as “reactors” as inflation and other factors weigh on them.
Approximately 52% of high-income consumers labeled themselves as “reactors” in the survey.
The proportion of earners characterized as “planners” posted a 25% drop between February of last year and January of this year, according to PYMNTS.
The real median income for American households was over $80,600 in 2023, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Finance
Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Jabil, JetBlue, Sunrun, Valero, Verve Therapeutics and more
Hong Kong Skyline
Nikada | E+ | Getty Images
Regencell Bioscience Holdings, an early-stage, Hong Kong-based bioscience company with no revenue, is the latest speculative overseas stock to attract an unusual surge in trading demand.
Shares of Regencell, which says it develops traditional Chinese herb treatments to treat childhood attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and autism, more than tripled on Monday — soaring more than 280% by the close. A 38-for-1 split declared on June 2 took effect on Monday.
The company’s year to date performance is off the charts too, having risen 46,000% in 2025. By Monday’s close, Regencell, founded in 2014 and traded on Nasdaq under the ticker ‘RGC’ since 2021, had a total market capitalization of $29.7 billion, according to S&P Capital IQ.
Regencell CEO Yat-Gai Au controls 86.24% of the total number of shares outstanding, according to FactSet data.
Regencell Bioscience Holdings in 2025.
Regencell is the latest example of a speculative international stock attracting attention during summer trading. In August, 2022, for example, AMTD Digital, a Hong Kong-based fintech company, climbed 126%, briefly giving it a market value greater than Coca-Cola and Bank of America.
Regencell’s market value is now about equal with Nasdaq-traded Lululemon and tops Super Micro Computer and Fifth Third Bancorp.
Earlier this month, Regencell explained the stock split as designed solely “to enhance liquidity in the market for the company’s ordinary shares and make the shares more accessible to investors.” Stock splits do not change anything fundamentally about a company.
Regencell’s surge also came amid an increased focus on alternative medicines after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was sworn in as Secretary of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services in February. Kennedy, a vaccine skeptic, has taken steps to discourage routine immunizations in the U.S., last week removing all of the members of a panel that advises the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on vaccines.
Regencell’s stock often makes huge one-day swings. For example, shares jumped roughly 30% on March 21, before dropping 30% the following trading day.
Obscure treatments, zero revenue
In spite of the wild spike in the stock, little is known about the efficacy and commercialization of the Regencell’s treatments for ADHD and Autistic Spectrum Disorders.
Regencell’s business centers on a proprietary Traditional Chinese Medicine formula (TCM) developed in a partnership with TCM practitioner Sik-Kee Au using his “Sik-Kee Au TCM Brain Theory.” Sik-Kee Au is the father of the Regencell chief executive officer Yat-Gai Au, the company said in a 2022 statement.
Three liquid-based, orally TCM formulae candidates claim to address mild, moderate and severe conditions and only contain natural ingredients such as so-called “detoxication herbs,” blood circulation herbs and digestion herbs.
“These TCM formulae form the basis of our TCM product candidates, which we intend to develop and commercialize for the treatment of ADHD and ASD,” Regencell’s website reads.
In its latest annual report filed last October, Regencell said that it had not generated any revenue, nor filed for any regulatory approvals of its TCM formulas. For the fiscal years ended June 2024 and 2023, Regencell incurred total net losses of $4.36 million and $6.06 million, respectively, according to a 20F filing to the SEC.
“We have not generated revenue from any TCM formulae candidates or applied for any regulatory approvals, nor have distribution capabilities or experience or any granted patents or pending patent applications and may never be profitable,” read the filing.
Regencell has not responded to a CNBC request for comment.
Regencell’s latest patient case study, dated Nov. 15, 2023, said 28 patients were given the treatment over a period of three months in a second efficacy trial and showed an improvement in symptoms of ADHD and ASD, according to the company’s webpage.
In an earlier case, Regencell said in a 2021 news release that it treated a dozen patients with suspected or confirmed Covid-19 cases, using a modified version of Au’s modified proprietary cold and flu TCM formula. What was described as an improvement of Covid conditions led Regencell to form a joint venture with Honor Epic Enterprises Limited in Sept. 2021 to conduct further tests and commercialize the company’s Covid treatment in ASEAN countries, according to the statement.
Online buzz
The stock has attracted little chatter on social media over the past few years. Those comments that have been made suggest both retail trader enthusiasm — and skepticism.
One user on the Reddit page “r/Shortsqueeze” wrote on Monday that Regencell is “trading like a meme coin. Bought a little to see what happens and it dropped 50% right after lol.” Another user said in a post made three months ago, “I scalp RGC everyday for a bit of profit.” The stock jumped 1,360% in May alone.
On LinkedIn in May, one investor said he “can’t stop laughing,” after reading the company description. Another post from a user in the pharmaceutical industry, according to his profile, last week said Regencell has become the “stock to watch” after its spike in May on “no official news or catalysts.” Another LinkedIn user last month commented on Regencell, saying, “China based, low volume and no official news, bizarro.”
On X, one user wrote in a Monday post said, “for #CompleteBullsh__CompanyOfTheYear I nominate regencell.”
— CNBC’s Scott Schnipper contributed reporting.
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