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China’s commercial property segment is seeing some bright spots

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Illuminated skyscrapers stand at the central business district at sunset on November 13, 2023 in Beijing, China.

Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images

BEIJING — China’s commercial property sector is seeing pockets of demand amid an overall real estate slump.

The capital city of Beijing is seeing rents for prime retail locations rise at their fastest pace since 2019, property consultancy JLL said in a report Tuesday. Rents increased by 1.3% during the first three months of this year compared with the fourth quarter of 2023, the report said.

Demand from new food and beverage brands, niche foreign fashion offerings and electric car companies has helped drive the interest in shopping mall storefronts, according to JLL.

The firm expects the demand to persist throughout the year, helping boost rents, which remain well below pre-pandemic levels.

Commercial real estate, which includes office buildings and shopping malls, makes up just a fraction of China’s overall property market.

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Sales of offices and commercial-use properties rose 15% and 17%, respectively, by floor area, in January and February from a year earlier, according to Wind Information.

In contrast, floor space of residential properties sold dropped by nearly 25% during that time, the data showed. Sales for both commercial and residential properties had fallen for much of last year, according to Wind.

Covid-19 restrictions on movement had also cut demand for China’s commercial property, in line with global trends. China’s economy, however, took longer than expected to rebound from the pandemic, amid a broader slump in the property market.

Getting cheap enough to buy

China’s commercial real estate prices are nearing an attractive buying point, Joe Kwan, Singapore-based managing partner at Raffles Family Office, said in an interview last week.

“We do have an internal timeline or projection of how far valuation has to fall before it makes it attractive for us,” he said. “I think the opportunity is about to open up for us right now.”

Kwan said he expects to start making deals in the second half of this year, through next year. The firm is primarily looking at commercial properties in Shanghai and Beijing.

Such bargain-hunting is not necessarily a sign that the market is on its way to a full recovery.

“What we have been observing is that owners [have] been throwing us the same opportunities, some of the same portfolios, but at a much discounted price on a quarterly basis,” he said. “So from that it gives us the general sense that it’s still going to be some way down the road before we can see the bottoming.”

“We do have still a very positive outlook on the longer term a prospect of China, given its size of population, given its demographics, given its consumption numbers,” Kwan said. “I think that right now it is going through a territory whereby it may overcorrect and people might miss out on the opportunity to acquire some really, really well-located, good-quality assets that will prove to be a winner, maybe not in the next two to three years, but at least in the mid-term.”

Hong Kong-based Swire Properties said in its report last month that it intends to double its gross floor area in mainland China by 2032. The company currently operates high-end shopping complexes branded “Taikoo Li” in Beijing, Shanghai and other major cities in China.

“In the Chinese Mainland, foot traffic has improved significantly and retail sales have exceeded pre-pandemic levels for most of our malls since pandemic-related restrictions were lifted. Our office portfolio has proven to be resilient despite a weak office market,” Tim Blackburn, Swire’s chief executive, said in the report.

Looking ahead, the company expects 2024 will be a “year of stabilization” in retail demand.

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Wall Street’s fear gauge — the VIX — saw second-biggest spike ever on Wednesday

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A television station broadcasts the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cut on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Wednesday, Dec. 18, 2024.

Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Wall Street’s fear gauge — the VIX — spiked by the second biggest percentage in its history on Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve jolted the stock market by saying it would dial back its rate-cutting campaign.

The CBOE Volatility Index surged 74% to close at 27.62, up from around 15 earlier in the day. That surge is the second-greatest in history, behind a 115% leap to above the 37 handle back in February 2018 when there was a blow-up in funds tracking the volatility index.

Wednesday’s move comes after the central bank said it will likely lower interest rates just twice next year, down from the four cuts it projected back in September, alarming investors who wanted low rates to keep fueling the bull market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled by 1,100 points to its 10th straight loss.

Typically, a value greater than 20 in the VIX indicates a higher level of fear in the market. However, for most of this year, the VIX had been suppressed below that level, worrying investors who believed the market had gotten overly complacent.

The VIX is calculated based on the prices of put and call options on the S&P 500. A spike could indicate a rush by investors to purchase put options for protection in a decline.

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CBOE Volatility Index, 5 days

Still, there have been one other significant surge in the VIX in 2024. The third-biggest surge in the VIX in history occurred in Aug. 5, 2024, when fears of a U.S. recession, and a major unwind in the yen carry trade, spurred a roughly 65% increase in the VIX to close above 38. On an intraday basis, the VIX briefly topped 65 that day.

On Thursday, the VIX was last floating just above the 20 handle, down more than 25% from the prior day.

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Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: MU, LW, DRI

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China self-driving truck company TuSimple pivots to genAI for games

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Workers setting up the TuSimple booth for CES 2022 at the Las Vegas Convention Center on Jan. 3, 2022.

Alex Wong | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Embattled Chinese autonomous trucking company TuSimple has rebranded to CreateAI, focusing on video games and animation, the company announced Thursday.

The news comes as GM folded its Cruise robotaxi business this month, and the once-hot sector of self-driving startups has started to weed out stragglers. TuSimple, which straddled the U.S. and China markets, had its own challenges: concerns over vehicle safety, a $189 million settlement of a securities fraud lawsuit and delisting from the Nasdaq in February.

Now, just over two years after CEO Cheng Lu rejoined the company in the role after being pushed out, he expects the business can break even in 2026.

That’s thanks to a video game based on the hit martial arts novels by Jin Yong that’s slated to release an initial version that year, Cheng said. He anticipates “several hundred million” in revenue in 2027 when the full version is launched.

Before the delisting, TuSimple said it lost $500,000 in the first three quarters of 2023, and spent $164.4 million on research and development during that time.

Company co-founder Mo Chen has a “long history” with the Jin Yong family and started work in 2021 to develop an animated feature based on the stories, Cheng said.

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The company claims its artificial intelligence capabilities in developing autonomous driving software give it a base from which to develop generative AI. That’s the next-level tech powering OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which generates human-like responses to user prompts.

Along with the CreateAI rebrand, the company debuted its first major AI model called Ruyi, an open-source model for visual work, available via the Hugging Face platform.

“It’s clear our shareholders see the value in this transformation and want to move forward in this direction,” Cheng said. “Our management team and Board of Directors have received overwhelming support from shareholders at the annual meeting.”

He said the company plans to increase headcount to around 500 next year, up from 300.

Cutting production costs by 70%

While still under the name TuSimple, the company in August announced a partnership with Shanghai Three Body Animation to develop the first animated feature film and video game based on the science fiction novel series “The Three-Body Problem.”

The company said at the time that it was launching a new business segment to develop generative AI applications for video games and animation.

CreateAI expects to lower the cost of top-tier, so-called triple A game production by 70% in the next five to six years, Cheng said. He declined to share whether the company was in talks with gaming giant Tencent.

When asked about the impact of U.S. restrictions, Cheng claimed there were no issues and said the company used a mix of China and non-China cloud computing providers.

The U.S. under the Biden administration has ramped up limits on Chinese businesses’ access to advanced semiconductors used to power generative AI.

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