Finance
China’s commercial property segment is seeing some bright spots
Illuminated skyscrapers stand at the central business district at sunset on November 13, 2023 in Beijing, China.
Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images
BEIJING — China’s commercial property sector is seeing pockets of demand amid an overall real estate slump.
The capital city of Beijing is seeing rents for prime retail locations rise at their fastest pace since 2019, property consultancy JLL said in a report Tuesday. Rents increased by 1.3% during the first three months of this year compared with the fourth quarter of 2023, the report said.
Demand from new food and beverage brands, niche foreign fashion offerings and electric car companies has helped drive the interest in shopping mall storefronts, according to JLL.
The firm expects the demand to persist throughout the year, helping boost rents, which remain well below pre-pandemic levels.
Commercial real estate, which includes office buildings and shopping malls, makes up just a fraction of China’s overall property market.
Sales of offices and commercial-use properties rose 15% and 17%, respectively, by floor area, in January and February from a year earlier, according to Wind Information.
In contrast, floor space of residential properties sold dropped by nearly 25% during that time, the data showed. Sales for both commercial and residential properties had fallen for much of last year, according to Wind.
Covid-19 restrictions on movement had also cut demand for China’s commercial property, in line with global trends. China’s economy, however, took longer than expected to rebound from the pandemic, amid a broader slump in the property market.
Getting cheap enough to buy
China’s commercial real estate prices are nearing an attractive buying point, Joe Kwan, Singapore-based managing partner at Raffles Family Office, said in an interview last week.
“We do have an internal timeline or projection of how far valuation has to fall before it makes it attractive for us,” he said. “I think the opportunity is about to open up for us right now.”
Kwan said he expects to start making deals in the second half of this year, through next year. The firm is primarily looking at commercial properties in Shanghai and Beijing.
Such bargain-hunting is not necessarily a sign that the market is on its way to a full recovery.
“What we have been observing is that owners [have] been throwing us the same opportunities, some of the same portfolios, but at a much discounted price on a quarterly basis,” he said. “So from that it gives us the general sense that it’s still going to be some way down the road before we can see the bottoming.”
“We do have still a very positive outlook on the longer term a prospect of China, given its size of population, given its demographics, given its consumption numbers,” Kwan said. “I think that right now it is going through a territory whereby it may overcorrect and people might miss out on the opportunity to acquire some really, really well-located, good-quality assets that will prove to be a winner, maybe not in the next two to three years, but at least in the mid-term.”
Hong Kong-based Swire Properties said in its report last month that it intends to double its gross floor area in mainland China by 2032. The company currently operates high-end shopping complexes branded “Taikoo Li” in Beijing, Shanghai and other major cities in China.
“In the Chinese Mainland, foot traffic has improved significantly and retail sales have exceeded pre-pandemic levels for most of our malls since pandemic-related restrictions were lifted. Our office portfolio has proven to be resilient despite a weak office market,” Tim Blackburn, Swire’s chief executive, said in the report.
Looking ahead, the company expects 2024 will be a “year of stabilization” in retail demand.
Investors always pay close attention to bonds, and what the latest movement in prices and yields is saying about the economy. Right now, the action is telling investors to stick to the shorter-end of the fixed-income market with their maturities.
“There’s lots of concern and volatility, but on the short and middle end, we’re seeing less volatility and stable yields,” Joanna Gallegos, CEO and founder of bond ETF company BondBloxx, said on CNBC’s “ETF Edge.”
The 3-month T-Bill right now is paying above 4.3%, annualized. The two-year is paying 3.9% while the 10-year is offering about 4.4%.
ETF flows in 2025 show that it’s the ultrashort opportunity that is attracting the most investors. The iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV) and SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 T-Bill ETF (BIL) are both among the top 10 ETFs in investor flows this year, taking in over $25 billion in assets. Only Vanguard Group’s S&P 500 ETF (VOO) has taken in more new money from investors this year than SGOV, according to ETFAction.com data. Vanguard’s Short Term Bond ETF (BSV) is not far behind, with over $4 billion in flows this year, placing with the top 20 among all ETFs in year-to-date flows.
“Long duration just doesn’t work right now” said Todd Sohn, senior ETF and technical strategist at Strategas Securities, on “ETF Edge.”
It would seem that Warren Buffett agrees, with Berkshire Hathaway doubling its ownership of T-bills and now owning 5% of all short-term Treasuries, according to a JPMorgan report.
Investors including Warren Buffett have been piling into short term Treasuries.
“The volatility has been on the long end,” Gallegos said. “The 20-year has gone from negative to positive five times so far this year,” she added.
The bond volatility comes nine months after the Fed’s began cutting rates, a campaign it has since paused amid concerns about the potential for resurgent inflation due to tariffs. Broader market concerns about government spending and deficit levels, especially with a major tax cut bill on the horizon, have added to bond market jitters.
Long-term treasuries and long-term corporate bonds have posted negative performance since September, which is very rare, according to Sohn. “The only other time that’s happened in modern times was during the financial crisis,” he said. “It is hard to argue against short term duration bonds right now,” he added.
Sohn is advising clients to steer clear of anything with a duration of longer than seven years, which has a yield in the 4.1% range right now.
Gallegos says she is concerned that amid the bond market volatility, investors aren’t paying enough attention to fixed income as part of their portfolio mix. “My fear is investors are not diversifying their portfolios with bonds today, and investors still have an equity addiction to concentrated broad-based indexes that are overweight certain tech names. They get used to these double-digit returns,” she said.
Volatility in the stock market has been high this year as well. The S&P 500 rose to record levels in February, before falling 20%, hitting a low in April, and then reversing all of those losses more recently. While bonds are an important component of long-term investing to shield a portfolio from stock corrections, Sohn said now is also a time for investors to look beyond the United States with their equity positions.
“International equities are contributing to portfolios like they haven’t done in a decade” he said. “Last year was Japanese equities, this year it is European equities. Investors don’t have to be loaded up on U.S. large cap growth right now,” he said.
The iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF (EZU) is up 25% so far this year. The iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) Japan ETF is up 25% over the last two years.
Overseas assets have become more popular.
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