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Chinese consumer companies signal spending is picking up again

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Shoppers line up to shop at a Laopu Gold outlet in Deji Plaza in Nanjing, China, on Feb. 21, 2025.

Fang Dongxu | Feature China | Future Publishing | Getty Images

BEIJING — Chinese companies’ latest earnings reports point to an improvement in consumer spending, though it’s not necessarily back to pre-pandemic levels.

E-commerce giants Alibaba and JD.com both said in the last several weeks that their China retail business saw faster year-on-year revenue growth in the last three months of 2024 than in 2023.

“We think consumption growth is in a period of healthy recovery, but not [yet reaching] the high previously,” Charlie Chen, managing director and head of Asia research at China Renaissance Securities, said Wednesday in Mandarin, translated by CNBC.

For consumer spending to return to pre-pandemic growth, Chinese companies’ revenue growth likely needs to recover by double digits and consumer confidence needs to improve, Chen said. He noted that the recent real estate slump has weighed on consumers’ sense of affluence.

Chinese policymakers have emphasized that boosting consumption is their priority this year. So far, authorities have expanded a trade-in subsidy program to include smartphones, on top of home appliances and electric cars. In September, Beijing also signaled a shift in real estate policy by calling for a halt in the market decline.

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JD.com has benefitted directly from the trade-in program, and reported 15.8% year-on-year growth in sales for electronics and home appliances in the fourth quarter of 2024. However, full-year segment revenue of 4.9% was only the fastest growth since 2021, when sales surged by nearly 23%.

The government has introduced consumption-stimulating policies since the second half of last year, and they have “driven a steady recovery in consumer confidence,” Sandy Xu, chief executive officer and executive director of JD.com, said in an earnings call this month, according to a FactSet transcript.

“In short-term we believe there are still challenges on the macro side, but in the long term, we remain very optimistic about consumer sentiment,” she said.

Niche markets stand out

Tencent, which operates mobile payments and social media app WeChat, reported a 3% growth in fintech and businesses services to 56.1 billion yuan ($7.7 billion) in the fourth quarter of 2024, noting that “commercial payment services revenue was broadly stable year-on-year.” That compares with 39% segment growth in the fourth quarter of 2019, which Tencent had attributed to “greater revenue contributions from commercial payment.”

Certain companies have found niche areas where Chinese consumers are spending, however.

In late February, Beijing-based Laopu Gold, which makes and sells gold jewelry with Chinese designs, forecast that its net profit last year surged by at least 236% in 2024 to 1.4 billion yuan. The company is set to release full results for 2024 on Tuesday.

Toy company Pop Mart also propelled ahead, reporting on Wednesday that revenue in mainland China more than doubled last year to 2.64 billion yuan.

Niu Technologies reported that e-scooter sales in China surged by more than 80% year on year in the fourth quarter of 2024 to 646.2 million yuan. Full-year segment sales rose by 27.5%. The company attributed growth to its focus on premium models and store expansion.

In contrast, Niu had said the relatively slow recovery in China’s economic growth in 2023 had resulted in a decline in sales that year.

China’s official economic data for the start of the year showed modest improvement in growth.

Retail sales growth of 4% year over year in January and February was the highest increase in the past 12 months on a seasonally adjusted basis, Chen said. Since that rise was on a high base of 5.5% growth in the first two months of 2024, he expects retail sales growth this year will be higher than 4%.

Retail sales rose by a muted 3.5% in 2024. For 2015 to 2019, retail sales had grown by an average of 9.7% each year.

Chen said he expects government policy to support more consumer discretionary or services spending since the potential for recovery is greater there than in daily necessities.

Chinese travel booking site Trip.com said in late February its net revenue for 2024 rose by 20% to 53.3 billion yuan. That was faster than a 15% increase in 2019 to 35.7 billion yuan in net revenue.

While the company did not detail its views on the domestic market, it emphasized that international travel had recovered to more than 120% of 2019 levels. CEO Jane Sun also highlighted in an earnings call that the “silver generation,” or travelers over the age of 50, is a target demographic as the market segment will likely exceed 1 trillion yuan in value in coming years.

Intense competition

China, the world’s second-largest consumer market, remains intensely competitive especially as consumer demand has been soft. Electric car companies have slashed prices, while retailers have struggled to compete with heavy online discounts.

Home accessories retail chain Miniso reported its mainland China revenue grew by 10.9% last year to 1.28 billion yuan, although growth moderated slightly in the December quarter at 6.5%. The company does not plan to accelerate its pace of store openings, and said online sales in China are increasingly driving growth.

Major beverage chains in China from milk tea to coffee also saw lower same-store sales in the latter part of 2024.

Overall industry slowdown and competitors launching low-priced products contributed to a 0.7% drop in same-store sales in the first nine months of 2024, bubble tea chain Guming said in its Hong Kong initial public offering prospectus released Feb. 4.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, average monthly sales per Chagee milk tea store in China fell by 20.6% from a year ago, after modest growth in the prior quarter, according to CNBC calculations of figures disclosed this week in a prospectus for a U.S. IPO. Overseas sales surged by 29.2% year on year in the fourth quarter.

Chinese bubble tea chain Mixue said average sales per store fell to 1.08 million yuan in the first three months of 2024, down from 1.13 million yuan a year earlier, according to the latest figures available.

Even upstart Chinese coffee chain Luckin saw a decline of 3.4% in same-store sales for self-operated stores in the quarter ended Dec. 31 from the year-ago period. Starbucks marked a 6% decline in comparable store sales during that time.

— CNBC’s Ying Shan Lee contributed to this report.

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Wall Street wants to privatize more of your money in market correction

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Big swing and a big miss? How options and private credit ETFs are changing the market.

From America’s largest bank to its biggest asset manager, Wall Street investment strategies once reserved for private banking clients are increasingly being offered to Main Street investors.

In the midst of a market correction and ongoing uncertainty about the outlook for U.S. stocks and the global economy, JPMorgan Chase and BlackRock are among major players in the ETF space making bets that private strategies will continue to see greater adoption. That includes private credit as a mainstream bond portfolio holding, as well as equity income strategies that involved more complicated trading than traditional dividend equity funds.

“Across our business we are looking at an incredible amount of demand from ETF investors who are looking for access to alternative investment funds, and we find managers are looking to push more into that wealth space to tap into growth to meet investors where they are,” Ben Slavin, managing director and global head of BNY Mellon ETF business, told CNBC’s Bob Pisani on last week’s “ETF Edge” from the Exchange ETF Conference in Las Vegas.

“While mutual funds still make a ton of sense for retirement accounts, interval funds have been really successful in allowing for access to private credit,” Jay Jacobs, head of BlackRock’s US Thematic and Active ETF business, told Pisani from the conference. He was referring to a form of closed-end fund that has existed for a long time, and in which investors can access private credit, albeit with less liquidity than in an ETF.

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager and biggest issuer of ETFs, acquired a provider of alternative investments research last year, Preqin, and Jacobs said the firm plans “more indexing of private investments.”

The SEC recently approved the first private credit ETF, though not without some controversy.

Lack of liquidity in private markets is a key issue for ETFs to solve as they attempt to grow the alternative investment side of the business. These kinds of funds, like Van Eck’s BDC Income ETF — which invests in business development companies that make private loans to small and mid-sized companies — have traditionally been illiquid but because of innovation in the ETF industry, more people are gaining access. 

Another trend that is catching on within the ETF market amid the current volatility in stocks is active ETFs designed to offer downside protection while capitalizing on income gained from selling call options. ETFs including the JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI) and JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPQ) use this approach.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s Bryon Lake said on a recent “ETF Edge” — he was among the leaders of the JPMorgan ETF business when JEPI was created and now runs a similar strategy at Goldman — “You sell that call, you get the premium for that, and then you can pay that out as income. As we look at this space, that’s one category that’s been evergreen for investors. A lot of investors are looking for income on a consistent basis.”

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Funds like JEPI give investors exposure to sell call strategies.

“There’s multiple ways to win with a strategy like this, as you can remain invested in the equity side and get the return, and capture that premium income which adds to a growing need and growing desire for income across all asset classes, and that’s a really effective way to stay in the market,” Travis Spence, head of JPMorgan Asset Management’s global ETFs business, said on last week’s “ETF Edge.”

The expense ratio on the JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF is 0.35 percent, with a 7.2 percent dividend. The firm also offers the JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF with the same expense ratio, but with a dividend yield right now of 10.6 percent. “Its an effective trade off in a choppy market,” Spence said.

Thirty years ago, an investor would have had to be a high-end client of a Wall Street private bank that would customize a portfolio in order to participate in the options fund strategy, said Ben Johnson, Morningstar’s head of client solutions and asset management. But now, “ETFs make it easier and cheaper to implement these strategies,” he said.

Buffer ETFs run by Goldman and others, which cap both market upside and downside as a way to mitigate volatility in returns, are also gaining in popularity.

“Clearly, when you look at the flows, there is demand for these products,” Slavin said. “Until recently, it was not really well known,” he added.

The premium income and buffer ETFs can offer investors a way to stay in the market rather than run from it. But in a market that has seen steep declines of late, Jacobs says these strategies also offer a way for investors to get into the market with less fear of quickly losing money. That’s an important point, he said, with trillions of dollars sitting in money market accounts. “A lot of investors are using buffered products to step out of cash and into the market,” he said. “No one wants to be the one who held cash for five years and just put their money into the market and watched it sell off 10%.”

After watching the S&P 500 already lose more than 10% of its value in a three-week period this month, ETF strategies designed to offer protection are getting more attention from advisors and their clients. But Johnson says investors should remember that there is nothing “new” about these investment strategies that have been used on Wall Street for decades, and investors need to weigh both the pros and cons of wrapping them in an ETF structure.

Private credit ETFs are a good example, he said, since interval funds that trade under ticker symbols are already available, albeit in a less liquid trading format. ETFs have structural advantages to offer — an inexpensive way to gain access to what have long been “really expensive, super illiquid investments,” he said. But on the other side, to be approved by the SEC, the ETFs need to “water down a lot of what investors want,” he added.

Nevertheless, Johnson thinks it may just be a matter of time before private credit ETFs are standard. “I think back to bank loans, circa 2011,” he said, when many “balked at ever wrapping it in an ETF. But now that seems fairly common place.”

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JPMorgan says it’s time to buy the Chinese consumer recovery

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Planning for retirement? What to know about traditional, Roth IRAs

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Socking away money for retirement is something that’s top of mind for many people.

Many Americans save money for their “Golden Years” through workplace retirement plans and individual accounts they set up, with traditional and Roth IRAs being frequently-used vehicles in the latter category. 

savers benefit from higher rates

Experts recommend you utilize a Roth or Traditional IRA in order to save and grow your retirement package.  (iStock / iStock)

Roth IRAs

Holders of Roth IRAs are able to make after-tax contributions to their accounts. 

“Why a lot of people like a Roth IRA today is that you pay income taxes today before you put the money into the Roth IRA,” Ted Jenkin, a personal finance expert and partner at Exit Wealth, told FOX Business. “The money grows tax-deferred while it’s inside of the Roth IRA, but the great news about a Roth IRA is you never, ever pay any tax when you take it out, so it’s basically taxed once today and then you’re never ever taxed again.” 

For 2025, the contribution limit for Roth IRAs is $7,000 for ages below 50 and $8,000 for those older than that, according to the IRS. 

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When a person takes out contributions from a Roth IRA, they will not have taxes or a penalty. A holder could face both if they do that for Roth IRA earnings before five years have elapsed since they’ve opened the account or they’re below the age of 59 ½, according to Fidelity.

businessman with hand over piggy bank

Businessman in suit is holding piggy bank. Finance Savings concept (iStock / iStock)

Traditional IRAs

Funds put into traditional IRAs are typically “not taxed until you take a distribution,” according to the IRS.

“Just like a Roth IRA, the dollars grow tax-deferred. However, on all that growth in the traditional IRA, ultimately you’re going to be taxed when you take it out down the road,” Jenkin said.

He noted that “can be challenging because you don’t always know what your tax brackets are going to be down the road.” 

People under 50 years old can make up to $7,000 in contributions to traditional IRAs in 2025. For those above 50, it is slightly higher, at $8,000.

In contrast to Roth IRAs, contributions to traditional IRAs can be tax-deductible but, according to Jenkin, that “depends on a number of factors.”

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He said the “big question” for deductibility was “Are you covered by a workplace retirement plan?”

“If you don’t, or your spouse does not, then you can fully deduct the traditional IRA,” he told FOX Business. “But if you have one at work, then there’s a phase out income-wise on how much income you have as to whether or not it’s deductible.”

When it comes to withdrawals for traditional IRAs, you can do so at any time but that distribution “will be includible in your taxable income and it may be subject to a 10% additional tax if you’re under age 59 ½,” according to the IRS.

For traditional IRAs, holders face a required minimum distribution they must pull out each year once they turn 73.  

Things to think about

The differences between traditional and Roth IRAs give people planning for retirement plenty to think about as they mull which account they want to use. 

Jenkin said one factor was “Do I want to be taxed now, or do I want to be taxed later?”

“When you’re younger, you’re generally in a lower tax bracket, which is why, for younger people, it’s a really great idea in my view to be putting money into a Roth IRA, because once it goes in there, you’re never taxed again.” 

He also noted the Secure 2.0 Act that became law in late 2022. 

“When you have a traditional IRA and you die and it goes to your kids or any other non-spouse inheritor, you have to take the money out of a traditional IRA within 10 years,” he said. “In a Roth IRA, when you die and your kids inherit the Roth IRA, they can take it out as long as they want. They’re not subject to that 10 years.” 

When weighing opening a traditional or Roth IRA, Jenkin also said people should consider whether they can “leave the money in there for an extended period of time.” He said they should factor in their current tax brackets and their “overall future estate plan” for their family as well. 

Documents about Individual retirement account IRA on a desk. (iStock / iStock)

He told FOX Business his “lean on this would be that more and more people should be looking at opening up a Roth IRA versus a traditional IRA.” 

How many people have IRAs? 

The Investment Company Institute said in a study released Thursday that nearly 44% of American households had IRAs in mid-2024, whether that be traditional, Roth, employer-sponsored or a combination. 

Traditional IRAs were owned by 32.6% of households, it found. Over 26% of households had Roth IRAs. 

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A separate report released by Fidelity Investments in February reported IRA accounts held average balances of $127,543 in the fourth quarter of 2024. That was an increase of 8% from the same three-month period in the prior year, according to the report. 

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