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Consumer sentiment tumbles in April as inflation fears spike, University of Michigan survey shows

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People shop in Bayonne, New Jersey on April 8, 2025. 

Charly Triballeau | Afp | Getty Images

Consumer sentiment grew even worse than expected in April as the expected inflation level hit its highest since 1981, a closely watched University of Michigan survey showed Friday.

The survey’s mid-month reading on consumer sentiment fell to 50.8, down from 57.0 in March and below the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 54.6. The move represented a 10.9% monthly change and was 34.2% lower than a year ago.

As sentiment moved lower, inflation worries surged.

Respondents’ expectation for inflation a year from now leaped to 6.7%, the highest level since November 1981 and up from 5% in March. At the five-year horizon, the expectation climbed to 4.4%, a 0.3 percentage point increase from March and the highest since June 1991.

Other measures in the survey also showed deterioration.

The current economic conditions index fell to 56.5, an 11.4% drop from March, while the expectations measure slipped to 47.2, a 10.3% fall. On an annual basis, the two measures dropped 28.5% and 37.9% respectively.

Sentiment declines came across all demographics, including age, income and political affiliation, according to Joanne Hsu, the survey director.

“Consumers report multiple warning signs that raise the risk of recession: expectations for business conditions, personal finances, incomes, inflation, and labor markets all continued to deteriorate this month,” Hsu said.

In addition to the other readings, the survey showed unemployment fears rising to their highest since 2009.

The survey comes amid concerns that President Donald Trump’s tariffs will raise inflation and slow growth, with some prominent Wall Street executives and economists expecting the U.S. could teeter on recession over the next year.

To be sure, the survey’s readings are generally counter to market-based expectations, which indicate little fear of inflation ahead. However, Federal Reserve officials in recent days say they fear that consumer expectations can quickly become reality if behavior changes. Consumer and producer inflation readings this week showed price pressures easing in March.

Also, the University of Michigan survey included responses between March 25 and April 8, the end period coming the day before Trump announced a 90-day stay on aggressive tariffs against dozens of U.S. trading partners.

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Economics

Trump greenlights Nippon merger with US Steel

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A tugboat pushes a barge near the U.S. Steel Corp. Clairton Coke Works facility in Clairton, Pennsylvania, on Sept. 9, 2024.

Justin Merriman | Bloomberg | Getty Images

President Donald Trump said Friday that U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel will form a “partnership,” after the Japanese steelmaker’s bid to acquire its U.S. rival had been blocked on national security grounds.

“This will be a planned partnership between United States Steel and Nippon Steel, which will create at least 70,000 jobs, and add $14 Billion Dollars to the U.S. Economy,” Trump said in a post on his social media platform Truth Social.

U.S. Steel’s headquarters will remain in Pittsburgh and the bulk of the investment will take place over the next 14 months, the president said. U.S. Steel shares jumped more than 24%.

President Joe Biden blocked Nippon Steel from purchasing U.S. Steel for $14.9 billion in January, citing national security concerns. Biden said at the time that the acquisition would create a risk to supply chains that are critical for the U.S.

Trump, however, ordered a new review of the proposed acquisition in April, directing the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States to determine “whether further action in this matter may be appropriate.”

This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.

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Economics

A court resurrects the United States Institute of Peace

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The night the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) was taken over, March 17th, staffers from Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) walked round its headquarters smoking cigars and drinking beers while they dismantled the signage and disabled the computer systems. The takeover of the USIP building in Washington, DC, earlier that afternoon was one of the more notable moments of President Donald Trump’s revolution in the capital, because the think-tank is not actually part of the executive branch. The Institute’s board and president, George Moose, a veteran diplomat, were summarily fired. He and other senior staff were ultimately forced out of the building at the behest of three different police agencies. Then a DOGE staffer handed over the keys to the building to the federal government.

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Economics

How much worse could America’s measles outbreak get?

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AMERICA’S MEASLES outbreak is alarming for several reasons. What began as a handful of cases in Texas in January has now surpassed 800 across several states, with many more cases probably going unreported. It is the worst outbreak in 30 years and has already killed three people. Other smaller outbreaks bring the total number of cases recorded in 2025 so far to over 1,000. But above all, public-health experts worry that the situation now is a sign of worse to come. Falling vaccination rates and cuts to public-health services could make such outbreaks more frequent and impossible to curb, eventually making measles endemic in the country again.

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