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Cut debt or face economic heart attack

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Ray Dalio says the U.S. faces a 'death debt spiral'

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Hedge fund titan Ray Dalio issued a fresh warning about the U.S. economy, warning of dire consequences if the Trump administration does not cut the country’s debt.

“It’s like if I was a doctor and I was speaking with you about your condition, I would say to you, this is now very, very serious. All of these are major problems,” Dalio told CNBC’s Dan Murphy at the World Government Summit in Dubai. “What you need to do is cut your deficit from about seven and a half percent of GDP to 3% of gross domestic product, and you can do that. There are certain things that you can do that cut it in a certain way that’ll make it much healthier, so the real problem is a political problem.”

The U.S. gross national debt stood at approximately $36.22 trillion as of Feb. 11, with $28.8 trillion of that as debt held by the public in the form of securities owned by individuals, corporations, state or local governments, Federal Reserve banks, foreign governments, and other entities outside the U.S. government. 

High debt means the government spends more on interest payments and is more economically vulnerable in the event of future economic crises. It also leads to higher inflation and creates a burden for future generations.

Watch CNBC's full interview with Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio

“I want to alert people. I want to alert government officials,” the billionaire Bridgewater Associates founder said. “I want to help, you know, and so I feel like the doctor, and then I would say everybody, politically … if this doesn’t happen, and we have the equivalent of, you know, an economic heart attack, or a heart attack of the bond market, then you know who’s responsible, because it can happen.”

“So it requires the same kind of discipline as if I was to say to you, OK, you need to change how you eat, you need to change your exercise routine, and you need to do these things.”

Dalio stressed that governments are responsible, and that leaders should make a pledge to reduce the U.S. budget deficit from 7.5% to 3% of its GDP or resign.

When asked what his message was to the Trump administration, Dalio replied:

“I think they recognize the problem, and then in the actions that are being taken, how do you cut costs? How do you raise productivity? … Make sure that you really know what you’re doing and you’re practical, and do it on … the conservative side, because you know, how much can the cutting actually be? We’ll see, and what are the consequences of the cutting and each one of those. So you better take a sharp pencil and be conservative.”

Dalio also warned of debt in private credit, saying a “debt death spiral is that part of the cycle, when the debtor needs to borrow money in order to pay debt service, and it accelerates, and then everybody sees that, and they don’t want to hold the debt. That’s where we’re approaching.”

Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates is one of the world’s largest hedge funds. It had $171.7 billion in assets under management as of September 2023, according to the U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission.

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Who decides what legal terms mean? If it is Donald Trump, God help America

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Economics

Inflation rate slipped to 2.1% in April, lower than expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows

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Inflation rate slipped to 2.1% in April, lower than expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows

Inflation barely budged in April as tariffs President Donald Trump implemented in the early part of the month had yet to show up in consumer prices, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s key inflation measure, increased just 0.1% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.1%. The monthly reading was in line with the Dow Jones consensus forecast while the annual level was 0.1 percentage point lower.

Excluding food and energy, the core reading that tends to get even greater focus from Fed policymakers showed readings of 0.1% and 2.5%, against respective estimates of 0.1% and 2.6%.

Consumer spending, though, slowed sharply for the month, posting just a 0.2% increase, in line with the consensus but slower than the 0.7% rate in March. A more cautious consumer mood also was reflected in the personal savings rate, which jumped to 4.9%, up from 0.6 percentage point in March to the highest level in nearly a year.

Personal income surged 0.8%, a slight increase from the prior month but well ahead of the forecast for 0.3%.

Markets showed little reaction to the news, with stock futures continuing to point lower and Treasury yields mixed.

People shop at a grocery store in Brooklyn on May 13, 2025 in New York City.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

Trump has been pushing the Fed to lower its key interest rate as inflation has continued to gravitate back to the central bank’s 2% target. However, policymakers have been hesitant to move as they await the longer-term impacts of the president’s trade policy.

On Thursday, Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell held their first face-to-face meeting since the president started his second term. However, a Fed statement indicated the future path of monetary policy was not discussed and stressed that decisions would be made free of political considerations.

Trump slapped across-the-board 10% duties on all U.S. imports, part of an effort to even out a trading landscape in which the U.S. ran a record $140.5 billion deficit in March. In addition to the general tariffs, Trump launched selective reciprocal tariffs much higher than the 10% general charge.

Since then, though, Trump has backed off the more severe tariffs in favor of a 90-day negotiating period with the affected countries. Earlier this week, an international court struck down the tariffs, saying Trump exceeded his authority and didn’t prove that national security was threatened by the trade issues.

Then in the latest installment of the drama, an appeals court allowed a White House effort for a temporary stay of the order from the U.S. Court of International Trade.

Economists worry that tariffs could spark another round of inflation, though the historical record shows that their impact is often minimal.

At their policy meeting earlier this month, Fed officials also expressed worry about potential tariff inflation, particularly at a time when concerns are rising about the labor market. Higher prices and slower economic growth can yield stagflation, a phenomenon the U.S. hasn’t seen since the early 1980s.

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German inflation May 2025

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19 May 2025, Berlin: Apricots are sold at a greengrocer for 7.98 euros per kilogram. Grapes and papaya are also on offer.

Photo by Jens Kalaene/picture alliance via Getty Images

Germany’s annual inflation hit 2.1% in May approaching the European Central Bank’s 2% target but coming in slightly hotter than analyst estimates, preliminary data from statistics office Destatis showed Friday.

The print compares with a 2.2% reading in April and with a Reuters projection of 2%.

The print is harmonized across the euro zone for comparability.

So-called core inflation, which strips out more volatile food and energy prices, dipped slightly from April’s 2.8% to 2.9% in May. The closely watched services print meanwhile eased sharply, coming in at 3.4% compared to 3.9% in the previous month.

Energy prices fell markedly for the second month in a row, tumbling by 4.6% in May.

Germany’s consumer price index has been closing in on the European Central Bank’s 2% target over recent months, in a positive signal amid ongoing uncertainty about the economic outlook for Europe’s largest economy.

Domestic and global issues have mired expectations for Germany’s financial future.

One the one hand, U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs could damage economic growth, given Germany’s status as an export-reliant country, though the potential impact of such duties on inflation remains unclear. But frequent policy shifts and developments have been muddying the picture.

On the other hand, Germany’s newly minted government is starting to get to work and has made the economy a top priority. Questions linger about when and to what extent the new Berlin administration’s policy plans might be realized.

The ECB is set to make its next interest rate decision on June 5, with traders last pricing in an over 96% chance of a quarter point interest rate reduction, according to LSEG data. Back in April, the central bank had cut its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%.

This is a breaking news story, please check back for updates.

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