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Economists call for trashing the QBI deduction

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A sizable tax deduction for the qualified business income of pass-through entities faces potential expiration next year. A panel of university economists and one of the most influential think tanks in Washington said lawmakers should either make big changes or let it go away.

Five economists were asked last month at a Brookings Institution event about which action they hope the next Congress and White House will take on the many parts of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that will sunset at the end of next year. Four of the economists called for the elimination of the so-called 199A deduction for pass-through income. The fifth spoke more generally, advocating for “rescinding some of the tax-rate cuts in the upper part of the income distribution,” which is a common criticism of the impact of the pass-through deduction.

Policy experts, financial advisors, tax professionals and their clients may know the deduction better as “the small business pass-through giveaway,” as the moderator, David Wessel, a Brookings senior fellow in economic studies who is the director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy, referred to it on the panel.

“‘Small business’ with, like, quotes,” Eric Zwick, a professor of economics and finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, said to laughter from the audience. “We should be very clear these [are] like, closely held, potentially quite large businesses with, like, very, very rich owners, many of them. So I think we should be very careful about using that word ‘small’ in a value-sensitive way.”

READ MORE: The QBI deduction’s impact is as murky as its rules, report finds

The others advocating for getting rid of the deduction of up to 20% of the qualifying pass-through income included William Gale, co-founder and co-director of the Brookings and Urban Institute’s Tax Policy Center; Kimberly Clausing, the chair of tax law and policy at the UCLA School of Law; and Naomi Feldman, an associate professor of economics at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem’s Department of Economics, who called the 199A break a policy “that was really put in to placate the small business lobby” that “was really done for political purposes.” The speakers pointed out the high cost of extending the expiring provisions of the law — which could hike the federal budget deficit by more than $4 trillion over the next decade.

“I think the main thing is we’ve got these huge budget deficits, as far as the eye can see,” said the fifth economist on the panel, Williams College Chair of Economics Jon Bakija. “We need to do some things that are going to restore enough revenue to pay for the government. And I think rescinding some of the tax rate cuts in the upper part of the income distribution is probably worthwhile for that purpose.”

With this year’s election looming in the background as the determining factor on what will happen to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on its deadline date at the end of 2025, the economists acknowledged that the voters and, ultimately, the elected officials would get the final say. While liberal and left-leaning think tanks have slammed the 199A deduction as too heavily beneficial to the wealthy at a large price tag estimated to be as much as $608 billion on its own through 2033, right-leaning and conservative groups argue that the policy boosts small businesses and provides parity for the rates paid by pass-through entities as compared to corporations.

Limits on the deduction to, say, business owners with less than $500,000 in total income “would result in a tax increase on one of the major sources of jobs in our nation, directly hurting workers and the economy,” according to a report earlier this year by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. The business advocacy organization has called for legislation making the deduction permanent.

READ MORE: QBI tax break — should it stay or should it go?

However, the complicated existing guidelines relating to the types of businesses that can get the deduction and the levels of qualifying income that make them ineligible has contributed to the fact that there are many entrepreneurs who could have claimed the deduction haven’t applied for it, according to a February report by the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service. The available research indicates that “the deduction may have stimulated no more than a modest rise in investment” during its first two years in effect in 2018 and 2019, the report said.

“It is unclear whether the deduction, combined with the temporary individual income tax cuts under the 2017 tax law, has boosted demand for labor in the noncorporate sector,” it said. “The deduction’s complexity increases the cost of compliance for taxpayers who might benefit from it, although it is not clear to what extent. There is also uncertainty about which businesses qualify for the deduction. Some lower-income taxpayers may not claim it because of the complexity and compliance cost. Many upper-income pass-through business owners may claim the deduction, but only with the assistance of tax professionals.”

Amid that murky picture of the impact of the policy, the economists on the panel shared some suggestions for potential adjustments to the deduction.

“You could change the deduction, I guess, if you wanted to keep it and make it cost less,” Zwick said. “You could make it a smaller deduction. But there are lots of phaseouts and phase-ins of some of the rules. The wage and capital requirements there, some of those could be adjusted to basically exclude more firms. I think there are a lot of firms that are on the barrier between the specified service, skilled types that probably shouldn’t get it, versus like other types of firms that, for some reason, like, we think should get it. Those could be tweaked to, like, basically shrink the number of firms that benefit from the preferential rate.”

A shift in focus of the tax breaks for pass-through income could further alter the impact of the deduction, Gale said on the panel.

“The general approach would be not to cut the rate — which is what the deduction does — but to switch it to an investment incentive,” Gale said. “Making a rate cut just is a nonstarter from an efficiency perspective, so making it an investment incentive instead would help some.”

READ MORE: 26 tips on expiring Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions to review before 2026

Regardless, the choice in this year’s presidential election between former President Donald Trump, a Republican who has indicated he would extend the 2017 tax bill he signed into law, and Vice President Kamala Harris — a Democrat who has called for continuing the provisions only for those with incomes below $400,000 — will exert more influence than any economist. Down-ballot races in Congress add another layer of uncertainty about the deduction.

“You notice, I asked them what they thought should be done,” the moderator, Wessel, said. “I didn’t ask them to predict what will happen, because if I wanted to predict what happened, I wouldn’t get five economists on a stage.”

The economists praised some aspects of the law, such as limits to the deduction for mortgage interest payments and a higher standard deduction that has led to less itemization across the board. In general, lawmakers ought to “forget 199A and all the bad stuff” so that they can “get all that revenue back” and “start doing the nice parts of the reform again,” Clausing said.

“I’m not sure we can afford the rate cuts, regardless of any silly pledge about $400K or not,” she said. “It’s not clear Americans will even notice their taxes going up. The vast majority of them — they didn’t notice when they went down.”

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Accounting

Tax scammers on the prowl after hurricanes

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Hurricane Milton damage in Florida
Destroyed homes after Hurricane Milton in St. Pete Beach, Florida, on Oct. 10.

Tristan Wheelock/Bloomberg

Scammers are using fake charities in the wake of Hurricanes Milton and Helene to harvest personal and financial data from unsuspecting taxpayers.

“You should never feel pressured by solicitors to immediately give to a charity,” said Commissioner Danny Werfel in a statement from the IRS, which issued the warning. “Verify if they’re authentic first.”

Tips to verify charities and spot fake ones:

  • Scammers frequently use names that sound like well-known charities to confuse people. Fake charity promoters may also use bogus emails or fake websites or alter or “spoof” their caller ID to make themselves look like a real charity. Ask the fundraiser for the charity’s name, website and mailing address. Check the Tax-Exempt Organization Search tool on IRS.gov to help find or verify legitimate charities.
  • Never work with charities that ask for donations by giving numbers from a gift card or wiring money. It’s safest to pay by credit card or check, and only after verifying the charity is real.
  • Scammers want both money and personal information. Never disclose Social Security numbers, credit card numbers or personal identification numbers
  • Scammers often pressure people into making an immediate payment. In contrast, legitimate charities are happy to get a donation at any time.

The IRS has other background on its Charity and Disaster Fraud page.

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Accounting

The digital transformation of audit: Our Moneyball moment

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In today’s rapidly evolving business landscape, the expectations placed on auditors and advisors are shifting significantly. 

As finance functions within organizations embrace technological advancements, there is mounting pressure on public accounting firms to match or exceed the pace of change and sophistication of their clients to perform their expected role.

Recent industry research indicates clients are noticing this growing gap in capabilities. Businesses are actively seeking accounting firms offering a more progressive approach, with 55% wanting an audit that can scale and support their growth goals and expectations. Further, 67% feel audits can provide valuable insights in these areas, but feel the current process is hindering this (“What modern businesses want from their audits”). 

Many accounting firms are excited by high-margin and high-growth advisory services. There is a huge amount of opportunity in this area, including services such as ESG, digital transformation, and AI strategy. 

But how can a firm pitch a credible offering to a company in these areas if their core services such as audit and tax are still highly manual? Discussing cyber risks and data security feels disingenuous while their teams drown in spreadsheets as their desktop software synchronizes.

Public accounting firms need to eat their own dog food, digitally transforming their own business to provide a credible and broad suite of valuable compliance and advisory services to clients. These war stories and firsthand experiences are what bring to life the page in the sales brochure.

The Oakland Athletics show the way

Over the past decade, technology has made significant advances. Just look at the NASDAQ’s most valuable companies by market capitalization: Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and NVIDIA — all companies built on the value of technology and data.

Yet, in the auditing profession many firms remain cautious over new technology. Some recite that audit standards have not been updated to endorse such technologies and until this happens, they won’t change: “The audit standards are still written assuming the auditor cannot review all transactions and must sample, so why would I use data analytics to analyze all the transactions?”

This mindset has led many to stick to traditional methods, feeling unable to change despite the clear benefits that modern technology can offer.

This might be audit’s Moneyball moment.

The story of the 2002 Oakland Athletics is well known and has been told more broadly through the hit film “Moneyball,” starring Brad Pitt. 

The rules of baseball do not significantly change from year to year. There was no major change ahead of the 2002 season. Yet one team decided to take a new approach to the game.

Auditing technology concept image

WrightStudio – stock.adobe.com

Rather than leaning on the traditional scouting approaches and views of those who had been in baseball all their lives, Billy Beane decided to embrace statistical analysis. As the general manager, he brought onto his team players undervalued by these traditional scouting methods. He adopted a data-driven approach to team-building and playing the game of baseball.

So, the rules of the game hadn’t changed, but one team decided to play the game differently within those existing rules. The Oakland Athletics chose to use data over the traditional approach. They set new records and stood shoulder-to-shoulder with teams that had far greater resources. 

Now every baseball team has embraced what Billy Beane started, and we have seen the same in other sports like the football. “Analytics” was originally scoffed at by commentators and former players. Now it is an integral part of everything from draft selection to in-game strategy.

The audit standards are akin to the rules of baseball. The rules do not need to change for a better way to play the game to be possible. The standards do not need to change for there to be a better way of auditing.

Digital audits are a way of leveraging data, data analytics, and modern technologies to deliver more efficient and valuable audits, while safely complying with the existing audit standards.

The role of governing bodies: Ensuring innovation and progress

Professional bodies, regulators, and standard-setters play a crucial role in helping firms navigate change. Innovation within firms brings greater creativity and variation to the way traditional services like audit are being performed. While evolving the rulebook is required, the process to change audit standards is necessarily deliberate, considered, and therefore slow. 

So, governing bodies must stay close to firms and the solution providers they are working with to drive innovation. Understanding new techniques as they are being conceived and trialed, not after they have matured and then witnessed in an audit inspection, could shorten this feedback loop by multiple years.

This level of transparency and collaboration requires trust. Professional bodies who see demand from their members for support as an opportunity to step in as a direct solution provider should be mindful of the impact. This changes relationships with solution providers and introduces conflicts to their role of advancing the profession.

In the U.K., there have been several positive initiatives aimed at fostering the collaborative advancement of the audit profession. Following comprehensive government-commissioned reports such as the Kingman and Brydon Reviews, UK audit firms have been redefining their operations and what an audit represents. 

The Financial Reporting Council, the U.K.’s audit regulator, has launched sandbox and other experimentation initiatives to support firms exploring more innovative auditing techniques. The professional body, the Institute of Chartered Accountants of England and Wales, has also embedded modern commercially available auditing technology directly within their accountancy exams to teach students digital auditing skills.

The U.S. could learn a lot from experiences on the other side of the Atlantic … .

The changing landscape of solution providers

For many years, public accounting firms have faced limited audit solution choice. 

This lack of competition has caused the market to circle the drain. Accounting firms have felt trapped by audit methodologies written generations ago, housed in desktop software which survived the millennium bug. This has then caused a chronic underinvestment in the market by the incumbent providers.

But the rise of cloud computing is driving a movement towards smaller, more agile providers, often with Big Four experience. They have developed enterprise-ready platforms leveraging the infrastructure and security of Microsoft Azure and other cloud providers. This means David can take on Goliath — but this time with more powerful capabilities.

The competition brought by more agile solution providers benefits CPA firms by:

  1. Offering more choice and new ideas;
  2. Providing more implementation support and guidance; and,
  3. Pressuring incumbents to modernize their offerings.

These solution providers are still evolving. Some come heavily backed by venture capital and private equity. Others have been successful in organically growing their business, as large firms early-adopted their solution. While the difference may seem subtle, the question remains whether in the long term these new vendors will take on, or be acquired by, the larger incumbent vendors.
This may ultimately come down to product strategy. Those offering narrow point-solutions may more naturally become target acquisitions for the large vendors with holes in their offerings. Or as territory defense. Those building rival suites, or committing to progressive partnerships to create alternative suites will more likely go long and create a healthier competitive landscape into the future.

Stop talking about the future of audit

There is a generational change in motion within the audit profession. Almost every CPA firm will review, and likely change, their audit technology in the next three years. 

They will ditch the desktop. But will they simply crawl to the cloud, doing the same work in a different place?

Or will they deploy digital, embracing data and automation to skip a step and make a more progressive change?

Firms that go digital will achieve greater efficiencies through automation. But more important, they will strategically position themselves to more easily embrace future technology advancements — embedding the skillsets and data disciplines required to capitalize on artificial intelligence and all the new innovations we are yet to experience.

And it is worth considering given the severe talent challenges — firms that are embracing technology are more attractive employers for those now looking to start and continue a career in accounting.

Traditional British pubs have a sign behind the bar stating the beer will be free tomorrow. But tomorrow never comes.

It’s time to stop listening to the theoretical presentations on the future of audit. The technology is here. More innovative innovation partners are here. CPA firms are implementing a digital audit approach and being successful. 

The relevance of the audit service to the needs of modern business may be judged in future years on the strategic decisions that accounting firm leaders make over the coming years.

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Accounting

Artificial intelligence and the risk of inflation expectations

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The arrival of artificial intelligence promises game-changers in all industries. But what if the rise of AI created new ways to simplify things — as well as a whole new set of complex client expectations for accountants? 

As businesses expect AI-driven solutions, accountants could find that what initially were accepted as benefits in cost-efficiency, speed, and enhanced service could be the most unexpected complications. Let us explore how AI’s promise to transform the accounting profession might go the unexpected way. 1. Faster service: When speed feels too fast for comfort. Where AI can automate repetitive tasks, accountants will process data faster than ever. This presumes that clients value that speed. 

Increased speed might mean that clients will demand information even faster than the speed at which it is created, without stopping to think about any deep analysis or nuanced judgment. 

The new challenge? Keeping up with unrealistic demands.

2. Value for money: The hidden cost of always expecting more for less. AI’s ability to perform tasks with minimum human intervention promises cost savings. However, the drive toward cost efficiency can be detrimental because it can feed into clients’ mindset that the value of professional accountants’ services would continue to drop. 

What is often left unsaid is that AI tools are costly in terms of investments in technology, learning, training, and keeping up with constant updates, and hence AI tools are not cost-neutral. Accountants will likely not sell any AI tool independently — so by itself, any AI tool won’t be a profit center. 

What is the paradox? Clients expect more for less, while accountants have to deal with higher costs to operate their practices. 

3. Better service: When AI lacks the human touch. Clients may also expect that AI will enhance service quality. After all, AI will be able to recognize patterns, predict trends, and perform complex calculations. 

In businesses where AI-driven processes take precedence over traditional ways of doing things, clients may miss the personal counsel, insight, and display of empathy accompanying human contact. AI, for all its power, cannot establish relationships and provide specific advice relevant to a client’s particular circumstances. 

The paradox arises: Better service in terms of raw data analysis does not equate to better service as perceived by the client.

4. Greater privacy: AI’s paradox of data security. Where there is AI, there is the ability to sift through enormous amounts of data at unbelievably fast speeds. This can open up a broad avenue for breach of privacy. At the same time — and quite rightly — all clients will expect AI to handle their sensitive financial data with more security than ever. 

AI knowledge

Катерина Євтехова – stock.adobe.com

Yet the same AI systems that make accounting tasks quicker and more efficient are those prone to cyber-attacks, breaches, and intentional or unintentional mismanagement of sensitive information. It is an expectation, but the reality is that AI systems may not have perfect security, especially when it comes to human use of AI tools. Hence, it is essential to have an “AI use policy.

5. More predictability: When clients expect crystal-ball forecasting. AI’s predictive powers promise more accurate financial forecasting, and clients may believe that AI will provide flawless predictions about future market trends, tax burdens, and revenue streams. 

However, AI is not perfect, and AI predictions are based on historical data that cannot predict unforeseeable events such as crashes, regulatory shifts, or political upheaval. 

As clients become more reliant on AI predictions, the likelihood increases that expectations will be set unrealistically high, and frustration will mount when predictions inevitably prove imperfect.

Navigating the AI-fueled expectations

With the rise of AI comes a whirlwind of expectations — faster service at lower costs, superior quality, greater privacy, and predictive accuracy. While AI can deliver on many of these promises, accountants should be aware of the new pressures created by such expectations. 

The future in accounting will be about mastering AI tools and managing the evolving and sometimes unrealistic demands coming hand in hand with those tools. As client expectations continue to grow, so must accountants balance the capabilities of AI with the irreplaceable value of human insight, judgment, and relationship-building.

It’s simple: Although AI may enhance processes, it cannot replace accountants’ multifaceted expertise. Accountants will need to communicate that to their clients effectively to be in a better position to turn these challenges of AI into opportunities for more profound, more impactful, more value-added services.

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