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Employers added jobs in March, reflecting a booming labor market

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Employers in the United States added 303,000 jobs in March, soaring past expectations and reflecting renewed strength in a labor market that continues to prop up the broader U.S. economy.

The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.8 percent last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, extending the longest stretch of unemployment below 4 percent in five decades.

The jobs market is charging ahead in 2024, churning out more jobs per month on average than before the pandemic. Job growth in March was notably higher than the average monthly gain over the past year, which was around 231,000, according to the agency.

“This was a very strong jobs report across a variety of metrics,” said Nick Bunker, economic research director at the jobs site Indeed. “It gives really positive implications for the short-term health of the labor market and the labor market’s capacity to bounce back from the pandemic.”

President Biden has been making an election-year case that economic gains made during his administration help all voters, and he trumpeted Friday’s jobs report.

“Today’s report marks a milestone in America’s comeback,” Biden said in a statement about the job gains. “Three years ago, I inherited an economy on the brink. With today’s report of 303,000 new jobs in March, we have passed the milestone of 15 million jobs created since I took office.”

Recent data indicates that Americans’ gloomy mood about the economy has lifted, with consumer sentiment in March up 28 percent from a year earlier, but those better vibes have yet to translate into political enthusiasm. Biden is trailing former president Donald Trump in six of the seven most competitive states in the 2024 election, according to a Wall Street Journal poll from late March, in part because of voter dissatisfaction with the economy.

Major stock indexes all edged up after markets opened Friday, as investors cheered on the good news.

Workers benefited in March from rising wages and more work hours. Average hourly earnings accelerated in March to $34.69 per hour, which is up 4.1 percent from the previous year. Wages have consistently beat inflation since last May after years of falling behind.

Service-related industries continue to prop up the greater economy and contribute to low unemployment that has benefited workers.

Health-care job growth accelerated, adding 72,000 jobs in March largely in hospitals, residential care facilities and nursing homes in a reflection of surging demand from the aging baby boomer population. Government payrolls expanded by 71,000, mostly in local government, as the sector has remained flush with cash.

Leisure and hospitality grew by 49,000 jobs and, in a major milestone, finally caught up to its February 2020 pre-pandemic levels, as demand for dining out and other experiences has continued to swell.

Job growth has also begun to spread into industries that had gone slack over the past year.

Construction added 39,000 jobs in March, more than double its monthly average gain of the past 12 months, surprising experts because that industry tends to be sensitive to higher interest rates. That could be due to the infusion of Biden administration spending on large-scale projects, such as semiconductor plants. Retail added 18,000 jobs, mostly in general-merchandise employers, such as big-box stores.

“There’s a pocket of strength in the U.S. labor market right now,” Bunker said. “Part of it could be that some sectors that have slowed down from 2022 to 2023 are starting to grow again. They’re working through some of the constraints of higher interest rates.”

Still, many rate-sensitive industries appear to remain cautious about hiring as they wait for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year. Employers in manufacturing; wholesale trade; warehousing and transportation; information; professional and business services, which includes parts of tech; and financial services saw little or no growth in March.

The latest job figures will shape the Federal Reserve’s review of how the economy is performing. For the past two years, the central bank’s overwhelming focus has been on fighting inflation, namely through an aggressive interest rate campaign that brought borrowing costs to the highest level in more than 20 years. But officials are also keeping close watch for any signs that their moves have put too much pressure on the economy, such as if the job market starts to weaken or employers pull back, fearing tougher times ahead.

Inflation has come in higher than expected since the start of the year. If that turns out to be a lasting trend, the Fed may end up changing its plans this year for three possible interest rate cuts, which markets expect could start in June.

Consistently, the message from Fed leaders has been that they need more time to see how the data unfolds. Friday’s report was no exception.

“There is no weakness in the job market which would impel the Fed to quickly cut, but no tightness which would prohibit a cut either,” Preston Caldwell, chief U.S. economist at Morningstar, wrote in an analyst note. “Fed decisions in upcoming meetings will hinge mainly on the inflation data.”

Lately, Americans have been spending big on vacations, dining out and entertainment. And that demand is driving employers to hire in those industries.

Hiring in the leisure and hospitality sector is vastly outpacing the overall labor market. Employers made the most hires on record in arts, entertainment and recreation in February, according to a separate report by the Labor Department released Tuesday.

The leisure and hospitality industry has added 458,000 jobs in the past year, accounting for nearly 1 in 6 new jobs across the country.

More than 53,000 restaurants opened last year, up 10 percent from 2022 and exceeding pre-pandemic levels, according to data from the online review site Yelp. That has helped boost hiring across the board, in entry-level positions as well as managerial roles.

Restaurateurs say it is finally becoming easier to find employees after years of worker shortages, relieving the pressure to raise wages. A major pickup in immigration has also helped fill many long-standing openings, with 3.3 million immigrants arriving in 2023, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Brent Frederick, who owns five restaurants in Minneapolis and St. Paul, has hired 40 people in the past month.

“There have been pullbacks in tech and other industries, and we’re noticing that a lot of people are landing back in hospitality,” he said. “There’s been influx in the pool of people available to us.”

The industry has been experiencing geographic changes, with restaurants following remote-work customers who moved to suburbs from cities.

That shift to the outskirts of town is expected to fuel brisk hiring in hospitality this year. Che Fico, one of San Francisco’s top restaurants, recently expanded to Menlo Park. Perry’s Steakhouse & Grille, which has 21 locations nationwide, is heading to Vernon Hills, outside Chicago. And Old Ebbitt Grill, a D.C. institution near the White House, is opening its first spinoff in Reston, Va.

“We’re calling it our ‘sexy sister in the suburbs,’” said Jeff Owens, chief financial officer at Clyde’s Restaurant Group, which operates 11 Washington-area restaurants. (Clyde’s is owned by Graham Holdings, which owned The Washington Post until 2013.)

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Last month, Jaime James of Minnesota picked up a second job as a bartender on top of her day job in health care. The single mother said she hadn’t worked in the service industry in a decade but needed the extra cash. She rents a $2,000-a-month apartment in a safer and cleaner building than her previous mice-infested one.

But James struggled to find an employer that would schedule her around her day job, as well as child-care needs. She applied for 24 restaurant jobs between November and March and got only two callbacks before she landed her current position.

“I had been out of the game for 10 years, and some of the [service] jobs I applied for received 350 to 500 applications,” James said. “I’m so grateful for the place that hired me.”

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How to save on groceries amid food price inflation

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D3sign | Moment | Getty Images

Signs of strain: Grocery debt, food pantry visits

What tariffs could mean for grocery prices

More Americans are using buy now, pay later loans to buy groceries. About 25% of respondents said they have used buy now, pay later loans to buy groceries this year, up from 14% in 2024, LendingTree found. More are also falling behind on those bills: 41% of respondents made a late payment on a BNPL loan in the past year, higher from 34% the year prior, the report found.

Some consumers are in more dire straits. In the past year, about 19% of polled Americans said they had to get food from a food bank or a pantry, according to a new Pew Research Center report.

‘Use all available resources’ to save on food

1. Plan your meals

A good first step is to plan out your meals in advance, said Thomas Gremillion, director of food policy at the Consumer Federation of America.

Once you have an idea of the kinds of meals you’re going to prepare, write out a list of the things you’ll need before stepping into the grocery store. 

People tend to spend less money when they go to the grocery store with a list, Gremillion said.

Look over supermarket sales circulars as you plan. Often, they feature discounted prices on certain brands or cuts of meat, said NerdWallet’s Palmer. “Maintaining that flexibility can help,” she said.

2. Stack discounts and coupons

3. Consider store brands

4. Reconsider where you shop

5. Tap government, local aid

The Credit Karma report found that 17% of respondents applied or considered applying for food stamps while 16% are relying on food banks. Those can be valuable resources for families in need.

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP benefits, is a federal government program that provides food benefits for qualifying low-income families, said Courtney Alev, the consumer financial advocate at Credit Karma. Contact your local SNAP office for more information; you may need to meet certain requirements in order to qualify.

Local food banks and pantries are available to anyone struggling to afford groceries, and typically more accessible compared to benefits like SNAP, experts say.

However, you might be required to provide information, depending on the food bank’s specific criteria or policies, experts say. For instance, some might require a proof of residence and income, Alev said.

You can look up your nearest food bank on websites like feedingamerica.org or 211.org.

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What stagflation may mean for your money

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The U.S. economy is still in a “strong position” despite “heightened uncertainty,” according to the Federal Reserve’s latest assessment.

Yet there’s a looming economic risk the U.S. hasn’t meaningfully faced for decades — stagflation.

“The risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation appear to have risen,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on May 7.

Those two factors — along with slower economic growth — are the definition of stagflation.

Fed leaves rates unchanged, but risks of higher inflation and unemployment has risen

Stagflation is not here yet. The unemployment rate is low and inflation has come down, though it is still higher than the Fed’s 2% target, Powell noted last week. Signs that the economy is in a “solid position” prompted the central bank to leave the short-term federal funds interest rate unchanged.

What’s fueling stagflation fears

Swiftly shifting tariff policies are the main threat prompting experts to sound stagflation warnings. Uncertainty related to tariffs is also a strong factor contributing to stagflation risks, according to Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.

“Uncertainty, in and of itself, is a drag on economic growth,” McBride said.

Businesses may react by not hiring, not expanding production, not making investments and otherwise waiting for the forecast to change, he said.

“Even if a lot of [the tariffs] never actually come to fruition, this period of uncertainty itself is a headwind to the economy,” McBride said.

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Stagflation was last a major issue for the U.S. economy in the 1970s as the country contended with the economic fallout of the Vietnam War, the loss of manufacturing jobs and spikes in oil prices.

While different factors are present today, stagflation is a “more pronounced risk than at any time over the past 40 years,” Greg Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon and vice president at the National Association for Business Economics, recently told CNBC.com.

Meanwhile, consumer confidence sank to its lowest reading in five years as tariffs impacted individuals’ outlook and employment confidence, according to the Conference Board’s April survey. Nevertheless, total retail sales were up in April, both month over month and year over year, as consumers moved up purchases in anticipation of tariffs prompting higher prices, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor.

How consumers can prepare for stagflation

Stagflation’s effects would be felt across the U.S. economy. However, there are several ways individuals can minimize their personal exposure ahead of those risks, experts say.

1. Pay down high interest debts

Eliminating credit card or other high-interest debts like home equity loans can help create more room in your budget, particularly as interest rates stay put for now.

“If stagflation comes to pass, you’re going to need that breathing room, because inflation will be high, and prices for all your expenses will be moving higher,” McBride said.

2. Boost emergency savings

Most respondents — 65% — to the May CNBC Fed Survey said they expect the Fed will lower interest rates if stagflation risks come to pass.

With interest rates holding steady, cash savers still have a unique opportunity to access higher returns.

Top-yielding online savings accounts are still offering interest rates that are above the rate of inflation, according to McBride. That may not always be the case if interest rates come down and the rate of inflation picks up.

Having cash set aside can help prevent the accumulation of high-cost debt or the need to prematurely raid retirement accounts in the face of income disruptions, rising expenses or other unexpected costs, McBride said.

3. Think twice before stocking up on goods

Pending tariffs could mean rising prices on a variety of goods from leather goods to apparel to cars. That may tempt consumers to want to rush to buy the products they anticipate they will need, in order to save money.

But buyer beware: So-called “panic buying” can mean you shell out more money than you otherwise would by purchasing more than you need.

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House GOP tax bill calls for $30,000 ‘SALT’ deduction cap

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Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) speaks during a House Committee on Ways and Means in the Longworth House Office Building on April 30, 2024 in Washington, D.C.

Anna Moneymaker | Getty Images News | Getty Images

House Republicans are calling for a higher limit on the deduction for state and local taxes, known as SALT, as part of President Donald Trump‘s tax and spending package.

The House Ways and Means Committee, which oversees tax, released the full text of its portion of the bill on Monday afternoon. The SALT provision would raise the cap to $30,000 for those with a modified adjusted gross income of $400,000 or less.

However, the SALT deduction limit has been a sticking point in tax bill negotiations and the provision could still change significantly. The committee is scheduled to debate and vote on the legislation on Tuesday afternoon.    

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Enacted via the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, or TCJA, of 2017, there’s a $10,000 limit on the federal deduction on state and local taxes, known as SALT, which will sunset after 2025 without action from Congress.

Currently, if you itemize tax breaks, you can’t deduct more than $10,000 in levies paid to state and local governments, including income and property taxes.

Raising the SALT cap has been a priority for certain lawmakers from high-tax states like California, New Jersey and New York. With a slim House Republican majority, those voices could impact negotiations.

While Trump enacted the $10,000 SALT cap in 2017, he reversed his position on the campaign trail last year, vowing to “get SALT back” if elected again. He has renewed calls for reform since being sworn into office.

Lawmakers have floated several updates, including a complete repeal, which seems unlikely with a tight budget and several competing priorities, experts say.

“It all has to come together in the context of the broader package,” but a higher SALT deduction limit could be possible, Garrett Watson, director of policy analysis at the Tax Foundation, told CNBC earlier this month.

Here’s who could be impacted.

How to claim the SALT deduction

When filing taxes, you choose the greater of the standard deduction or your itemized deductions, including SALT capped at $10,000, medical expenses above 7.5% of your adjusted gross income, charitable gifts and others.

Starting in 2018, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act doubled the standard deduction, and it adjusts for inflation yearly. For 2025, the standard deduction is $15,000 for single filers and $30,000 for married couples filing jointly.

Because of the high threshold, the vast majority of filers — roughly 90%, according to the latest IRS data — use the standard deduction and don’t benefit from itemized tax breaks.

Typically, itemized deductions increase with income, and higher earners tend to owe more in state income and property taxes, according to Watson.

Who benefits from a higher SALT limit

Generally, higher earners would benefit most from raising the SALT deduction limit, experts say.

For example, an earlier proposal, which would remove the “marriage penalty” in federal income taxes, involves increasing the cap on the SALT deduction for married couples filing jointly from $10,000 to $20,000.

That would offer almost all the tax break to households making more than $200,000 per year, according to a January analysis from the Tax Policy Center.

“If you raise the cap, the people who benefit the most are going to be upper-middle income,” said Howard Gleckman, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

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Of course, upper-middle income looks different depending on where you live, he said.

Forty of the top 50 U.S. congressional districts impacted by the SALT limit are in California, Illinois, New Jersey or New York, a Bipartisan Policy Center analysis from before 2022 redistricting found.

If lawmakers repealed the cap completely, households making $430,000 or more would see nearly three-quarters of the benefit, according to a separate Tax Policy Center analysis from September.

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