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Fed Chair Powell says central bank doesn’t ‘need to be in a hurry’ to lower interest rates further

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Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before the House Financial Services Committee in the Rayburn House Office Building on Capitol Hill on March 06, 2024 in Washington, DC. 

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday reiterated the central bank’s commitment to bringing inflation down and signaled that policymakers aren’t in a rush to push interest rates lower.

In remarks before the Senate Banking Committee, Powell called the economy “strong overall” with a “solid” labor market and inflation that is easing but still above the Fed’s 2% goal.

With those conditions prevailing, he said the Fed doesn’t need to move quickly to ease monetary policy.

“With our policy stance now significantly less restrictive than it had been and the economy remaining strong, we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance,” Powell said. “We know that reducing policy restraint too fast or too much could hinder progress on inflation. At the same time, reducing policy restraint too slowly or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.”

Powell’s comments came in the first of two appearances this week on Capitol Hill. He speaks to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday then the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.

Much of the proceeding focused on bank supervision rather than monetary policy.

Ranking Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts charged that President Donald Trump’s move to halt the work of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau left consumers without a watchdog of the nation’s largest banks.

Fed Chair Powell: The level of capital in the largest banks is about right

Warren asked Powell who is administering consumer compliance outside of the CFPB, to which he responded, “I can say no other federal regulator.” Powell nonetheless said the broader banking system is safe.

On monetary policy, Powell’s remarks were largely in keeping with his recent statements and those of his colleagues, who are digesting a number of fiscal and monetary dynamics that make for an uncertain environment.

Most prominently, Trump has launched an aggressive campaign to institute tariffs against the largest U.S. trading partners, in one sense to level the economic playing field and in another to enforce foreign policy goals against illegal immigration and drug smuggling, specifically fentanyl.

Powell did not mention any of that in his prepared remarks but was expected to face questioning on tariffs and other issues from panel members.

In one exchange, he again noted that it is not the Fed’s policy or responsibility to get involved in fiscal policy.

“I think the standard case for for free trade and all that logically still makes sense. It didn’t work that well when we have one very large country that doesn’t really play by the rules,” Powell said. “In any case, it’s not the Fed’s job to make or comment on tariff policy … That’s for elected people and and it’s not for us to comment. Ours is to try to react to it in a thoughtful, sensible way and make monetary policy so that we can achieve our mandate.”

Markets have interpreted the recent messaging as indications that the Fed will be on hold with rates, probably into the summer, after cutting its benchmark borrowing level by a full percentage point in the latter part of 2024.

Powell said the current policy stance, with the benchmark fed funds rate in a range between 4.25%-4.5%, is providing flexibility. The Federal Open Market Committee held the rate in place at its late-January meeting.

“We are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate, and policy is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face,” he said.

Shortly after taking office, Trump said he would “demand” that interest rates come down “immediately.” However, in subsequent remarks he said he agreed with the decision to keep rates in place, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration is more focused on seeing the 10-year Treasury yield move lower than on the Fed’s actions, which more strongly influence shorter-term rates.

Mortgage rates have held high even as the Fed has cut, and Powell said that could change ahead.

“It’s true that mortgage rates have gone or remained high, but that’s not so directly related to the Fed’s rate,” Powell said. “It’s really related more to long-term bond rates, particularly the Treasury, the 10-year Treasury, 30-year Treasury, for example. And those are high for reasons not particularly closely related to Fed policy.”

Powell said mortgage rates could come down as the Fed keeps rates low, though he’s unsure when that could happen.

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Finance

Walmart sell-off bizarre, buy stock despite tariff risks: Bill Simon

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Walmart's stock drop after earnings is bizarre, says former CEO Bill Simon

Walmart stock may be a steal.

Former Walmart U.S. CEO Bill Simon contends the retailer’s stock sell-off tied to a slowing profit growth forecast and tariff fears is creating a major opportunity for investors.

“I absolutely thought their guidance was pretty strong given the fact that… nobody knows what’s going to happen with tariffs,” he told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Thursday, the day Walmart reported fiscal fourth-quarter results.

But even if U.S. tariffs against Canada and Mexico move forward, Simon predicts “nothing” should happen to Walmart.

“Ultimately, the consumer decides whether there’s a tariff or not,” said Simon. “There’s a tariff on avocados from Mexico. Do you have guacamole with your chips or do you have salsa and queso where there is no tariff?”

Plus, Simon, who’s now on the Darden Restaurants board and is the chairman at Hanesbrands, sees Walmart as a nimble retailer.

“The big guys, Walmart, Costco, Target, Amazon… have the supply and the sourcing capability to mitigate tariffs by redirecting the product – bringing it in from different places [and] developing their own private labels,” said Simon. “Those guys will figure out tariffs.”

Walmart shares just saw their worst weekly performance since May 2022 — tumbling almost 9%. The stock price fell more than 6% on its earnings day alone. It was the stock’s worst daily performance since November 2023.

Simon thinks the sell-off is bizarre.

“I thought if you hit your numbers and did well and beat your earnings, things would usually go well for you in the market. But little do we know. You got to have some magic dust,” he said. “I don’t know how you could have done much better for the quarter.”

It’s a departure from his stance last May on “Fast Money” when he warned affluent consumers were creating a “bubble” at Walmart. It came with Walmart shares hitting record highs. He noted historical trends pointed to an eventual shift back to service from convenience and price.

But now Simon thinks the economic and geopolitical backdrop is so unprecedented, higher-income consumers may shop at Walmart permanently.

“If you liked that story yesterday before the earnings release, you should love it today because it’s… cheaper,” said Simon.

Walmart stock is now down 10% from its all-time high hit on Feb. 14. However, it’s still up about 64% over the past 52 weeks.

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China carries big risks for investors, money manager suggests

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Is China abandoning capitalism?

Investors may want to reduce their exposure to the world’s largest emerging market.

Perth Tolle, who’s the founder of Life + Liberty Indexes, warns China’s capitalism model is unsustainable.

“I think the thinking used to be that their capitalism would lead to democracy,” she told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “Economic freedom is a necessary, but not sufficient precondition for personal freedom.”

She runs the Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF — which is up more than 43% since its first day of trading on May 23, 2019. So far this year, Tolle’s ETF is up 9%, while the iShares China Large-Cap ETF, which tracks the country’s biggest stocks, is up 19%.

The fund has never invested in China, according to Tolle.

Tolle spent part of her childhood in Beijing. When she started at Fidelity Investments as a private wealth advisor in 2004, Tolle noted all of her clients wanted exposure to China’s market.

“I didn’t want to personally be investing in China at that point, but everyone else did,” she said. “Then, I had clients from Russia who said, ‘I don’t want to invest in Russia because it’s like funding terrorism.’ And, look how prescient that is today. So, my own experience and those of some of my clients led me to this idea in the end.”

She prefers emerging economies that prioritize freedom.

“Without that, the economy is going to be constrained,” she added.

ETF investor Tom Lydon, who is the former VettaFi head, also sees China as a risky investment.

 “If you look at emerging markets… by not being in China from a performance standpoint, it’s provided less volatility and better performance,” Lydon said.

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Read Warren Buffett’s latest annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders

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Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway raised its stakes in Mitsubishi Corp., Mitsui & Co., Itochu, Marubeni and Sumitomo — all to 7.4%.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Warren Buffett released Saturday his annual letter to shareholders.

In it, the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway discussed how he still preferred stocks over cash, despite the conglomerate’s massive cash hoard. He also lauded successor Greg Able for his ability to pick opportunities — and compared him to the late Charlie Munger.

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