Connect with us

Finance

Fed holds interest rates higher for even longer as inflation remains high

Published

on

DO NOT USE ON FNC/FBN DIGITAL EDITORIAL. ONLY FOR CREDIBLE CONTENT

The Federal Reserve won’t lower interest rates until its certain inflation will meet 2% target rate. (iStock)

The Federal Reserve said that a lack of progress in bringing inflation down over the last few months is why it is holding interest rates where they are for now.

On Wednesday, the central bank announced it would maintain the federal funds rate range at 5.25% to 5.5%, where rates have held steady since July. Fed officials have said in past meetings that they anticipated rate cuts for 2024 but need more confidence that inflation is heading toward the 2% target rate. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated this sentiment on Wednesday when speaking with reporters and said it would likely take longer for the central bank to gain this confidence.

“Our restrictive stance of monetary policy has been putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation, and the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals have moved toward better balance over the past year,” Powell said.  “However, in recent months, inflation has shown a lack of further progress toward our 2% objective, and we remain highly attentive to inflation risks.”

The inflation data registered this year has been higher than the Fed expected. The latest reading of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding food and energy prices – a key metric the Federal Reserve tracks to measure inflation – increased by 3.7% after rising to 2% in the fourth quarter, raising concerns that inflation may be headed in the wrong direction and could spark another rate increase.   

On an annual basis, prices rose 3.5% in March, more than the 3.2% growth last month and above the 3.4% growth economists had expected, according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

If you’re worried about the state of the economy, you could consider paying down high-interest debt with a personal loan at a lower interest rate. Visit Credible to speak with a personal loan expert and get your questions answered.

SOCIAL SECURITY: COLA INCREASING BUT MEDICARE COSTS RISING TOO IN 2024

Stagflation risk inflated

While inflation ticked up, U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) dropped faster than expected in the first quarter, at an annual rate of 1.6% for the first quarter after rising 3.4% in the fourth quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).  Those two factors have sparked concerns about the risk of stagflation.

However, Powell told reporters that those concerns are misguided and said that economic growth remains solid and the PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is under 3%. Powell also noted that it was unlikely that the Fed would raise interest rates again at its next meeting. 

“I was around for stagflation. It was 10% unemployment. It was high single-digit inflation and very slow growth,” Powell said, referencing the stagflation in the 1970s, which was triggered by a large spike in oil prices.

If you’re struggling in the current economy, you could consider paying off high-interest debt with a personal loan at a lower rate. You can visit Credible to get your personalized interest rate without affecting your credit score. 

MILLENNIALS ARE DESPERATE TO BUY A HOME, MOST WILLING TO PAY A MORTGAGE RATE ABOVE 7%: SURVEY

How higher interest rates impact your wallet

A higher-for-longer policy stance means consumers must brace for a continued high borrowing costs environment. Relief isn’t likely to come until later in 2024, according to Michele Raneri, TransUnion vice president of U.S. research and consulting.

“As long as interest rates remain relatively high, it’s vital that consumers continue to use credit smartly, especially when it comes to higher-interest products such as credit cards,” Raneri said. “It’s best to only use these cards to the extent there is confidence they can be paid off relatively soon, as interest can pile on quickly, particularly at the higher rates of today. In addition, consumers should consider exploring lower interest products to help consolidate their higher interest debt and lower their monthly payments.”

Mortgage rates have ticked above 7% in recent weeks and that, combined with high home prices, has rendered housing unaffordable for many. Borrowing costs will not likely ease until the Fed dials back interest rates. And the same is true for car financing. The average borrowing cost for new vehicles was 7.1% in the first quarter, while used-vehicle APRs rose to 11.7% in the fourth quarter, according to a recent Edmunds report.

“The Fed is signaling with today’s announcement that there isn’t enough confidence that inflation will continue to drop toward the 2% target,” CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Hepp said. “We will continue to observe interest trends, but we don’t expect a meaningful dip in mortgage rates for the remainder of the year. What is promising, however, is that some markets are showing an increase in inventory, especially on the lower end of home prices. That is the light at the end of the tunnel for the housing market right now.” 

If you looking to buy a house in today’s economy, comparing multiple lenders can ensure you are getting the best interest rate. Visit Credible to find your personalized mortgage rate in minutes from multiple lenders at once.

THIS IS THE #1 CITY FOR FIRST-TIME HOMEBUYERS, AND OTHER HOT US HOUSING MARKETS

Have a finance-related question, but don’t know who to ask? Email The Credible Money Expert at [email protected] and your question might be answered by Credible in our Money Expert column.

Continue Reading

Finance

India may have fastest growing e-commerce sector

Published

on

India: the "perfect" emerging market

Investors may want to consider adding exposure to the world’s second-largest emerging market.

According to EMQQ Global founder Kevin Carter, India’s technology sector is extremely attractive right now.

“It’s the tip of the spear of growth [in e-commerce] … not just in emerging markets, but on the planet,” Carter told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. 

His firm is behind the INQQ The India Internet ETF, which was launched in 2022. The India Internet ETF is up almost 21% so far this year, as of Friday’s close.

‘DoorDash of India’

One of Carter’s top plays is Zomato, which he calls “the DoorDash of India.” Zomato stock is up 128% this year.

“One of the reasons Zomato has done so well this year is because the quick commerce business blanket has exceeded expectations,” Carter said. “It now looks like it’s going to be the biggest business at Zomato.”

Carter noted his bullishness comes from a population that is just starting to go online.

“They’re getting their first-ever computer today basically,” he said, “You’re giving billions of people super computers in their pocket internet access.”

Continue Reading

Finance

How the Federal Reserve’s rate policy affects mortgages

Published

on

The Federal Reserve lowered its interest rate target three times in 2024.

This has many Americans waiting for mortgage rates to fall. But that may not happen for some time.

“I think the best case scenario is we’re going to continue to see mortgage rates hover around six and a half to 7%,” said Jordan Jackson, a global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “So unfortunately for those homeowners who are looking for a bit of a reprieve on the mortgage rate side, that may not come to fruition,” Jordan said in an interview with CNBC.

Mortgage rates can be influenced by Fed policy. But the rates are more closely tied to long-term borrowing rates for government debt. The 10-year Treasury note yield has been increasing in recent months as investors consider more expansionary fiscal policies that may come from Washington in 2025. This, combined with signals sent from the market for mortgage-backed securities, determine the rates issued within new mortgages.

Economists at Fannie Mae say the Fed’s management of its mortgage-backed securities portfolio may contribute to today’s mortgage rates.

In the pandemic, the Fed bought huge amounts of assets, including mortgage-backed securities, to adjust demand and supply dynamics within the bond market. Economists also refer to the technique as “quantitative easing.”

Quantitative easing can reduce the spread between mortgage rates and Treasury yields, which leads to cheaper loan terms for home buyers. It can also provide opportunities for owners looking to refinance their mortgages. The Fed’s use of this technique in the pandemic brought mortgages rates to record lows in 2021.

“They were extra aggressive in 2021 with buying mortgage-backed securities. So, the [quantitative easing] was probably ill-advised at the time.” said Matthew Graham, COO of Mortgage News Daily.

In 2022, the Federal Reserve kicked off plans to reduce the balance of its holdings, primarily by allowing those assets to mature and “roll-off” of its balance sheet. This process is known as “quantitative tightening,” and it may add upward pressure on the spread between mortgage rates and Treasury yields.

“I think that’s one of the reasons the mortgage rates are still going in the wrong direction from the Federal Reserve’s standpoint,” said George Calhoun, director of the Hanlon Financial Systems Center at Stevens Institute of Technology.

Watch the video above to learn how the Fed’s decisions affect mortgage rates.

Continue Reading

Finance

Fintechs are 2024’s biggest gainers among financials

Published

on

Jason Wilk

Source: Jason Wilk

Jason Wilk, the CEO of digital banking service Dave, remembers the absolute low point in his brief career as head of a publicly-traded firm.

It was June 2023, and shares of his company had recently dipped below $5 apiece. Desperate to keep Dave afloat, Wilk found himself at a Los Angeles conference for micro-cap stocks, where he pitched investors on tiny $5,000 stakes in his firm.

“I’m not going to lie, this was probably the hardest time of my life,” Wilk told CNBC. “To go from being a $5 billion company to $50 million in 12 months, it was so freaking hard.”

But in the months that followed, Dave turned profitable and consistently topped Wall Street analyst expectations for revenue and profit. Now, Wilk’s company is the top gainer for 2024 among U.S. financial stocks, with a 934% year-to-date surge through Thursday.

The fintech firm, which makes money by extending small loans to cash-strapped Americans, is emblematic of a larger shift that’s still in its early stages, according to JMP Securities analyst Devin Ryan.

Investors had dumped high-flying fintech companies in 2022 as a wave of unprofitable firms like Dave went public via special purpose acquisition companies. The environment turned suddenly, from rewarding growth at any cost to deep skepticism of how money-losing firms would navigate rising interest rates as the Federal Reserve battled inflation.

Now, with the Fed easing rates, investors have rushed back into financial firms of all sizes, including alternative asset managers like KKR and credit card companies like American Express, the top performers among financial stocks this year with market caps of at least $100 billion and $200 billion, respectively.

Big investment banks including Goldman Sachs, the top gainer among the six largest U.S. banks, have also surged this year on hope for a rebound in Wall Street deals activity.

Stock Chart IconStock chart icon

hide content

Dave, a fintech firm taking on big banks like JPMorgan Chase, is a standout stock this year.

But it’s fintech firms like Dave and Robinhood, the commission-free trading app, that are the most promising heading into next year, Ryan said.

Robinhood, whose shares have surged 190% this year, is the top gainer among financial firms with a market cap of at least $10 billion.

“Both Dave and Robinhood went from losing money to being incredibly profitable firms,” Ryan said. “They’ve gotten their house in order by growing their revenues at an accelerating rate while managing expenses at the same time.”

While Ryan views valuations for investment banks and alternative asset manages as approaching “stretched” levels, he said that “fintechs still have a long way to run; they are early in their journey.”

Financials broadly had already begun benefitting from the Fed easing cycle when the election victory of Donald Trump last month intensified interest in the sector. Investors expect Trump will ease regulation and allow for more innovation with government appointments including ex-PayPal executive and Silicon Valley investor David Sacks as AI and crypto czar.

Those expectations have boosted the shares of entrenched players like JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, but have had a greater impact on potential disruptors like Dave that could see even more upside from a looser regulatory environment.

Gas & groceries

Dave has built a niche among Americans underserved by traditional banks by offering fee-free checking and savings accounts.

It makes money mostly by extending small loans of around $180 each to help users “pay for gas and groceries” until their next paycheck, according to Wilk; Dave makes roughly $9 per loan on average.

Customers come out ahead by avoiding more expensive forms of credit from other institutions, including $35 overdraft fees charged by banks, he said. Dave, which is not a bank, but partners with one, does not charge late fees or interest on cash advances.

The company also offers a debit card, and interchange fees from transactions made by Dave customers will make up an increasing share of revenue, Wilk said.

While the fintech firm faces far less skepticism now than it did in mid-2023— of the seven analysts who track it, all rate the stock a “buy,” according to Factset — Wilk said the company still has more to prove.

“Our business is so much better now than we went public, but it’s still priced 60% below the IPO price,” he said. “Hopefully we can claw our way back.”

Continue Reading

Trending