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Fed’s Powell emphasizes need for more evidence that inflation is easing before cutting rates

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Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, during a Fed Listens event in Washington, DC, US, on Friday, March 22, 2024. A trio of central bank decisions this week sent a clear message to markets that officials are preparing to loosen monetary policy, reigniting investor appetite for risk.

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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday it will take a while for policymakers to evaluate the current state of inflation, keeping the timing of potential interest rate cuts uncertain.

Speaking specifically about stronger-than-expected price pressures to start the year, the central bank leader said he and his fellow officials are in no rush to ease monetary policy.

Watch Fed Chair Powell speak live at Stanford policy conference economic forum

“On inflation, it is too soon to say whether the recent readings represent more than just a bump,” Powell said in remarks ahead of a question-and-answer session at Stanford University.

“We do not expect that it will be appropriate to lower our policy rate until we have greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2 percent,” he added. “Given the strength of the economy and progress on inflation so far, we have time to let the incoming data guide our decisions on policy.”

The remarks come a week after the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee again voted to hold benchmark short-term borrowing rates steady. In addition, the committee’s post meeting statement on March 20 included the “greater confidence” qualifier needed before cutting.

‘Bumpy path’

Markets widely expect the FOMC to start easing policy this year, though they have had to recalibrate their outlook for the timing and extent of cuts as inflation has held stubbornly higher. Other economic variables, particularly in the labor market and consumer spending, have held up as well, giving the Fed time to assess the current state of affairs before moving.

The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, showed a 12-month rate of 2.5% for February, or 2.8% for the pivotal core measure that excludes food and energy. Virtually all other inflation gauges show rates in excess of 3%.

“Recent readings on both job gains and inflation have come in higher than expected,” Powell said. “The recent data do not, however, materially change the overall picture, which continues to be one of solid growth, a strong but rebalancing labor market, and inflation moving down toward 2 percent on a sometimes bumpy path.”

Other Fed officials speaking this week have made remarks consistent with the Fed’s patient approach.

Cleveland Fed President Raphael Bostic told CNBC on Wednesday that he thinks just one cut might be in the offing as prices of some important items have turned higher. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said three cuts is a “reasonable baseline” but noted there are no guarantees, while Cleveland’s Loretta Mester also said cuts are likely later this year while adding that rates over the longer term may be higher than anticipated. All three are FOMC voters.

Powell reiterated that decisions are being made “meeting by meeting” and noted only that cuts are “likely to be appropriate … at some point this year.”

The uncertainty about rates has caused some consternation in markets, with stocks falling sharply earlier this week as Treasury yields moved higher. The market stabilized Wednesday, but traders in the fed funds futures market again repriced their rate expectations, casting some doubt on a June cut as the market-implied probability moved to about 54% at one point, according to CME Group data.

Election ahead

Along with his comments on rates, Powell spent some time discussing Fed independence.

With the presidential election campaign heating up, Powell noted the importance of steering clear of political issues.

“Our analysis is free from any personal or political bias, in service to the public,” he said. “We will not always get it right — no one does. But our decisions will always reflect our painstaking assessment of what is best for our economy in the medium and longer term — and nothing else.”

He also talked about “mission creep,” specifically as it relates to some demand for the Fed to get involved in climate change issues and the preparations financial institutions take for related events.

“We are not, nor do we seek to be, climate policymakers,” he said.

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Planning for retirement? What to know about traditional, Roth IRAs

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Socking away money for retirement is something that’s top of mind for many people.

Many Americans save money for their “Golden Years” through workplace retirement plans and individual accounts they set up, with traditional and Roth IRAs being frequently-used vehicles in the latter category. 

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Experts recommend you utilize a Roth or Traditional IRA in order to save and grow your retirement package.  (iStock / iStock)

Roth IRAs

Holders of Roth IRAs are able to make after-tax contributions to their accounts. 

“Why a lot of people like a Roth IRA today is that you pay income taxes today before you put the money into the Roth IRA,” Ted Jenkin, a personal finance expert and partner at Exit Wealth, told FOX Business. “The money grows tax-deferred while it’s inside of the Roth IRA, but the great news about a Roth IRA is you never, ever pay any tax when you take it out, so it’s basically taxed once today and then you’re never ever taxed again.” 

For 2025, the contribution limit for Roth IRAs is $7,000 for ages below 50 and $8,000 for those older than that, according to the IRS. 

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When a person takes out contributions from a Roth IRA, they will not have taxes or a penalty. A holder could face both if they do that for Roth IRA earnings before five years have elapsed since they’ve opened the account or they’re below the age of 59 ½, according to Fidelity.

businessman with hand over piggy bank

Businessman in suit is holding piggy bank. Finance Savings concept (iStock / iStock)

Traditional IRAs

Funds put into traditional IRAs are typically “not taxed until you take a distribution,” according to the IRS.

“Just like a Roth IRA, the dollars grow tax-deferred. However, on all that growth in the traditional IRA, ultimately you’re going to be taxed when you take it out down the road,” Jenkin said.

He noted that “can be challenging because you don’t always know what your tax brackets are going to be down the road.” 

People under 50 years old can make up to $7,000 in contributions to traditional IRAs in 2025. For those above 50, it is slightly higher, at $8,000.

In contrast to Roth IRAs, contributions to traditional IRAs can be tax-deductible but, according to Jenkin, that “depends on a number of factors.”

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He said the “big question” for deductibility was “Are you covered by a workplace retirement plan?”

“If you don’t, or your spouse does not, then you can fully deduct the traditional IRA,” he told FOX Business. “But if you have one at work, then there’s a phase out income-wise on how much income you have as to whether or not it’s deductible.”

When it comes to withdrawals for traditional IRAs, you can do so at any time but that distribution “will be includible in your taxable income and it may be subject to a 10% additional tax if you’re under age 59 ½,” according to the IRS.

For traditional IRAs, holders face a required minimum distribution they must pull out each year once they turn 73.  

Things to think about

The differences between traditional and Roth IRAs give people planning for retirement plenty to think about as they mull which account they want to use. 

Jenkin said one factor was “Do I want to be taxed now, or do I want to be taxed later?”

“When you’re younger, you’re generally in a lower tax bracket, which is why, for younger people, it’s a really great idea in my view to be putting money into a Roth IRA, because once it goes in there, you’re never taxed again.” 

He also noted the Secure 2.0 Act that became law in late 2022. 

“When you have a traditional IRA and you die and it goes to your kids or any other non-spouse inheritor, you have to take the money out of a traditional IRA within 10 years,” he said. “In a Roth IRA, when you die and your kids inherit the Roth IRA, they can take it out as long as they want. They’re not subject to that 10 years.” 

When weighing opening a traditional or Roth IRA, Jenkin also said people should consider whether they can “leave the money in there for an extended period of time.” He said they should factor in their current tax brackets and their “overall future estate plan” for their family as well. 

Documents about Individual retirement account IRA on a desk. (iStock / iStock)

He told FOX Business his “lean on this would be that more and more people should be looking at opening up a Roth IRA versus a traditional IRA.” 

How many people have IRAs? 

The Investment Company Institute said in a study released Thursday that nearly 44% of American households had IRAs in mid-2024, whether that be traditional, Roth, employer-sponsored or a combination. 

Traditional IRAs were owned by 32.6% of households, it found. Over 26% of households had Roth IRAs. 

401(K) BALANCES HIT SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD: FIDELITY

A separate report released by Fidelity Investments in February reported IRA accounts held average balances of $127,543 in the fourth quarter of 2024. That was an increase of 8% from the same three-month period in the prior year, according to the report. 

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Wall Street wants to privatize more of your money in market correction

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Big swing and a big miss? How options and private credit ETFs are changing the market.

From America’s largest bank to its biggest asset manager, Wall Street investment strategies once reserved for private banking clients are increasingly being offered to Main Street investors.

In the midst of a market correction and ongoing uncertainty about the outlook for U.S. stocks and the global economy, JPMorgan Chase and BlackRock are among major players in the ETF space making bets that private strategies will continue to see greater adoption. That includes private credit as a mainstream bond portfolio holding, as well as equity income strategies that involved more complicated trading than traditional dividend equity funds.

“Across our business we are looking at an incredible amount of demand from ETF investors who are looking for access to alternative investment funds, and we find managers are looking to push more into that wealth space to tap into growth to meet investors where they are,” Ben Slavin, managing director and global head of BNY Mellon ETF business, told CNBC’s Bob Pisani on last week’s “ETF Edge” from the Exchange ETF Conference in Las Vegas.

“While mutual funds still make a ton of sense for retirement accounts, interval funds have been really successful in allowing for access to private credit,” Jay Jacobs, head of BlackRock’s US Thematic and Active ETF business, told Pisani from the conference. He was referring to a form of closed-end fund that has existed for a long time, and in which investors can access private credit, albeit with less liquidity than in an ETF.

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager and biggest issuer of ETFs, acquired a provider of alternative investments research last year, Preqin, and Jacobs said the firm plans “more indexing of private investments.”

The SEC recently approved the first private credit ETF, though not without some controversy.

Lack of liquidity in private markets is a key issue for ETFs to solve as they attempt to grow the alternative investment side of the business. These kinds of funds, like Van Eck’s BDC Income ETF — which invests in business development companies that make private loans to small and mid-sized companies — have traditionally been illiquid but because of innovation in the ETF industry, more people are gaining access. 

Another trend that is catching on within the ETF market amid the current volatility in stocks is active ETFs designed to offer downside protection while capitalizing on income gained from selling call options. ETFs including the JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI) and JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPQ) use this approach.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s Bryon Lake said on a recent “ETF Edge” — he was among the leaders of the JPMorgan ETF business when JEPI was created and now runs a similar strategy at Goldman — “You sell that call, you get the premium for that, and then you can pay that out as income. As we look at this space, that’s one category that’s been evergreen for investors. A lot of investors are looking for income on a consistent basis.”

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Funds like JEPI give investors exposure to sell call strategies.

“There’s multiple ways to win with a strategy like this, as you can remain invested in the equity side and get the return, and capture that premium income which adds to a growing need and growing desire for income across all asset classes, and that’s a really effective way to stay in the market,” Travis Spence, head of JPMorgan Asset Management’s global ETFs business, said on last week’s “ETF Edge.”

The expense ratio on the JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF is 0.35 percent, with a 7.2 percent dividend. The firm also offers the JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF with the same expense ratio, but with a dividend yield right now of 10.6 percent. “Its an effective trade off in a choppy market,” Spence said.

Thirty years ago, an investor would have had to be a high-end client of a Wall Street private bank that would customize a portfolio in order to participate in the options fund strategy, said Ben Johnson, Morningstar’s head of client solutions and asset management. But now, “ETFs make it easier and cheaper to implement these strategies,” he said.

Buffer ETFs run by Goldman and others, which cap both market upside and downside as a way to mitigate volatility in returns, are also gaining in popularity.

“Clearly, when you look at the flows, there is demand for these products,” Slavin said. “Until recently, it was not really well known,” he added.

The premium income and buffer ETFs can offer investors a way to stay in the market rather than run from it. But in a market that has seen steep declines of late, Jacobs says these strategies also offer a way for investors to get into the market with less fear of quickly losing money. That’s an important point, he said, with trillions of dollars sitting in money market accounts. “A lot of investors are using buffered products to step out of cash and into the market,” he said. “No one wants to be the one who held cash for five years and just put their money into the market and watched it sell off 10%.”

After watching the S&P 500 already lose more than 10% of its value in a three-week period this month, ETF strategies designed to offer protection are getting more attention from advisors and their clients. But Johnson says investors should remember that there is nothing “new” about these investment strategies that have been used on Wall Street for decades, and investors need to weigh both the pros and cons of wrapping them in an ETF structure.

Private credit ETFs are a good example, he said, since interval funds that trade under ticker symbols are already available, albeit in a less liquid trading format. ETFs have structural advantages to offer — an inexpensive way to gain access to what have long been “really expensive, super illiquid investments,” he said. But on the other side, to be approved by the SEC, the ETFs need to “water down a lot of what investors want,” he added.

Nevertheless, Johnson thinks it may just be a matter of time before private credit ETFs are standard. “I think back to bank loans, circa 2011,” he said, when many “balked at ever wrapping it in an ETF. But now that seems fairly common place.”

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JPMorgan says it’s time to buy the Chinese consumer recovery

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