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Fed’s Waller, a candidate for chair, sees potential for half-point cut if labor market weakens further

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Christopher Waller, governor of the US Federal Reserve, during a Fed Listens event in Washington, DC, US, on Friday, March 22, 2024. A trio of central bank decisions this week sent a clear message to markets that officials are preparing to loosen monetary policy, reigniting investor appetite for risk.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller reiterated his support for an interest rate cut in September and opened the door to a potentially larger move if the labor market continues to weaken.

In a speech Thursday evening, the policymaker said he expects the August nonfarm payrolls report to be weak, with Bureau of Labor Statistics revisions indicating that the the economy may have lost jobs over the past several months.

“Based on what I know today, I would support a 25 basis point cut at the Committee’s meeting on September 16 and 17,” Waller said during the speech in Miami. “While there are signs of a weakening labor market, I worry that conditions could deteriorate further and quite rapidly, and I think it is important that the [Federal Open market Committee] not wait until such a deterioration is under way and risk falling behind the curve in setting appropriate monetary policy.”

A basis point is 0.01%, so a reduction of 25 basis points would be equal to a quarter percentage point.

Waller said he believes the Fed can use its power over interest rates to stave off further labor market weakening. “So, let’s get on with it,” he said.

Considered to be on President Donald Trump’s short list of potential replacements for Fed Chair Jerome Powell next year, Waller was one of two Fed governors to dissent from the July FOMC decision to hold the central bank’s benchmark interest rate steady in a range between 4.25%-4.5%. It was the first time multiple governors had opposed a committee rate decision in more than 30 years.

Fed governors Bowman, Waller explain their dissents, say waiting to cut rates threatens economy

Since then, Waller said, the incoming data have only reinforced his belief that lower interest rates are necessary. He said he would still favor keeping the cut to a quarter point but, “That view, of course, could change if the employment report for August, due out a week from [Friday], points to a substantially weakening economy and inflation remains well contained.”

He added that he expects “additional cuts over the next three to six months” as the Fed remains as much as 1.5 percentage points above a neutral level.

When the jobs report is released, the BLS not only will update its counts from the previous two months but also will release a preview of its annual “benchmark” payroll revision. Waller said he anticipates the adjustment will show the economy created on average 60,000 fewer jobs a month than originally reported.

“That would mean that private-sector employment actually shrank, on average, in the past three months and that job creation earlier in the year was weaker than currently reported,” he said.

Following a lackluster July jobs report and sharp downward revisions from prior months, Trump fired the BLS commissioner and named conservative economist E.J. Antoni as the new chief. Waller, a Trump appointee from the president’s first term, said there’s nothing wrong with raising questions about the accuracy of BLS data considering the large revisions, but said the adjustments more likely are related to businesses being slow in returning their monthly surveys.

Waller added that he disagrees with a common assessment from other Fed officials lately that the labor market is “solid” because the unemployment rate is a relatively low 4.2%.

“I believe that any decline in labor supply is only masking weakening demand in the labor market. Whether or not supply is down, weakening demand is not good, and it is specifically what monetary policy is intended to address,” he said.

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Treasury Yields Rise as Fed Cut Expectations Shift

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Treasury Yields Rise as Fed Cut Expectations Shift

Fixed-income markets recorded significant re-pricing during the week ending July 25, 2026, as a convergence of strong labor market metrics and surging energy costs drove U.S. Treasury yields higher across all maturities. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward 4.70%, reaching its highest point in several months. Institutional bond investors rapidly adjusted portfolio durations as expectations for near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve faded in response to inflation concerns.

The upward shift in sovereign yields reflects a broader fundamental reassessment of global monetary policy. Earlier in the quarter, money markets had priced in a series of rate reductions designed to support economic activity. However, with initial jobless claims falling to 187,000 and crude oil breaching $100 per barrel, fixed-income traders are pricing in a ‘higher-for-longer’ interest rate environment. The inversion between short-term Treasury bills and long-term bonds narrowed, indicating a shift toward term premium expansion.

Rising Treasury yields present both challenges and opportunities for institutional wealth managers. While commercial lenders and mortgage origination volumes face headwinds from elevated borrowing costs, fixed-income investors are locking in attractive real yields on high-quality sovereign and investment-grade corporate bonds. Institutional debt issuers, conversely, are recalibrating their capital structures, opting for shorter-term refinancing instruments or private credit facilities to avoid committing to elevated long-term coupon rates.

Navigating the current bond market landscape demands strict duration management and credit selection. Wealth advisors recommend maintaining flexible fixed-income allocations, combining short-duration Treasuries with inflation-protected securities (TIPS) to shield capital against potential energy-driven inflation spikes while earning dependable nominal income.

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Private Credit Expansion Transforms Corporate Loans

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Private Credit Expansion Transforms Corporate Loans

Private credit markets reached a pivotal milestone during the week ending July 25, 2026, as non-bank direct lending consortiums captured a record share of middle-market corporate debt originations. With commercial banks maintaining conservative credit standards and public bond yields remaining elevated, corporate borrowers are increasingly turning to private fund managers for customized capital solutions. This expansion marks a permanent structural shift in enterprise finance, establishing private credit as a primary pillar of institutional corporate liquidity.

The acceleration of private credit deals is driven by speed, deal certainty, and flexible terms. Unlike traditional syndicated bank loans that require lengthy underwriting, credit rating approvals, and public roadshows, private direct lenders can structure tailored financing packages within days. Middle-market firms facing upcoming debt maturities are utilizing private debt facilities to execute recapitalizations, strategic acquisitions, and growth capital deployments without risking execution delay in public markets.

However, financial regulators and central bank supervisors are scrutinizing the sector’s rapid growth. Supervisory agencies are evaluating potential systemic risks associated with non-bank leverage, valuation transparency, and liquidity mismatches during economic downturns. Despite regulatory interest, major pension funds, insurance firms, and sovereign wealth entities continue to expand capital allocations to private credit funds, attracted by reliable floating-rate yields that outperform public fixed-income benchmarks.

As private credit matures into a dominant asset class, corporate chief financial officers must evaluate non-bank lenders alongside traditional banking relationships. Direct lending partnerships provide valuable balance sheet resilience, enabling companies to secure flexible financing terms even during periods of public market turbulence.

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Finance

Tokenized Debt Shifts How Corporate Manage Short Term Liquidity

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Tokenized Debt Shifts Corporate Liquidity

The landscape of institutional debt markets is undergoing a profound structural shift on July 21, 2026, as major corporate issuers and commercial banks rapidly accelerate the deployment of tokenized debt instruments. Data published by leading capital market consortiums indicates that primary issuances of digital commercial paper and tokenized corporate bonds have reached record volumes this month. By moving legacy debt origination, underwriting, and secondary distribution onto permissioned distributed ledgers, corporate treasurers are unlocking unprecedented operational flexibility and instantaneous cross-border liquidity.

The adoption of tokenized debt is fundamentally altering how enterprise balance sheets manage short-term liquidity needs. Traditional corporate bond settlement cycles historically required multi-day clearing processes involving numerous intermediaries, custodial entities, and clearinghouses. Through programmable smart contracts on distributed ledgers, issuers can now execute atomic settlement—enabling continuous, 24/7 access to institutional capital pools. This instantaneous clearing mechanism drastically reduces counterparty risk, eliminates costly settlement friction, and allows treasury teams to dynamically optimize working capital in real time.

A major catalyst driving this institutional migration is the establishment of comprehensive digital asset regulatory frameworks across major financial hubs. Clear legal guidelines regarding ledger-based securities ownership have provided institutional compliance officers with the regulatory confidence necessary to transition multi-billion-dollar liquidity facilities onto digital platforms. Furthermore, the integration of automated regulatory reporting directly into token smart contracts simplifies ongoing compliance audits, ensuring that secondary market trades automatically enforce investor accreditation limits and tax withholding requirements.

For chief financial officers and institutional portfolio managers, tokenized debt represents a fundamental evolution in fixed-income strategy. Companies that embrace ledger-based debt structures gain direct access to a broader, global base of digital-native institutional investors while substantially reducing borrowing overhead. As ledger interoperability continues to improve across global exchanges, tokenized debt is poised to become the standard infrastructure for global corporate finance.

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