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GOP opposition to child tax credit bill could be softening in Senate

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Bipartisan legislation to cut taxes for working families and extend certain corporate tax breaks has stalled in the Senate over Republican opposition. But the bill’s prospects could be growing rosier as lawmakers prepare to return to Washington next week from a long recess.

Privately, some GOP lawmakers have said they’re increasingly willing to support the bill with small changes that the measure’s Democratic sponsor has already offered, according to four people involved in the conversations who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private talks.

In a sign of possible momentum, Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) wrote to lawmakers Friday that the upper chamber could consider the bill — along with measures to regulate TikTok, address rail safety and lower health-care costs — “in the weeks and months ahead.”

Once the Senate wraps up impeachment proceedings against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, expected to take up most of lawmakers’ time next week, Schumer could put the tax bill to a vote on or shortly after the April 15 tax deadline.

The $79 billion legislation pairs an expansion to the child tax credit — a major priority for President Biden and Democrats that nonpartisan estimates say would lift 400,000 children out of poverty — with business tax incentives initially authorized in 2017 under President Donald Trump.

The Internal Revenue Service has said it could apply the credit retroactively, but lawmakers have still been eyeing the filing deadline as a possible time peg for action on the measure.

It was the product of a deal struck between Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and Rep. Jason T. Smith (R-Mo.), the chairs of Congress’s tax-writing committees, after seven months of talks, and it passed the House with broad bipartisan support in January.

The bill has run into opposition from Sen. Mike Crapo (Idaho), Wyden’s Republican counterpart on the Finance Committee, over a provision that would allow low-income families to use a prior year’s return to earn a larger tax credit. Many Republicans have publicly followed Crapo’s lead, hoping to give him more leverage to seek changes to the legislation that dial back the credit for families.

Privately, though, numerous Republican senators say they could support the legislation without some of those changes, but don’t want to outwardly break with a well-liked and powerful member of their caucus, the four people who have discussed the measure with them said.

These people — three lobbyists and a senior GOP Senate staffer who have had in-depth conversations with lawmakers and senior staffers about the bill — said that in private, a sufficient number of Republicans to overcome a filibuster support the legislation, but many of them do not want to cross Crapo and other GOP leaders who hope to extract more concessions from Wyden and Smith.

“The thing that we see differently now is there does not seem to be the willingness that anyone is going roll Crapo,” one of those people said. “That’s pretty clear from Republicans now. We see that the path forward for this bill is that concessions need to be made.”

A left-leaning advocacy group had a similar read.

“We’ve had conversations with over a dozen Republican Senate offices and heard significant support for the bipartisan tax package and enthusiasm both for the [research-and-development] credit as well as for the child tax credit provision,” Adam Ruben, director of Economic Security Project Action. “I would predict that if this comes to a vote, I think the votes are there. … Will it come to a vote [and overcome a GOP filibuster threat] is another question.”

Wyden offered to alter the legislation to address some of Crapo’s concerns, swapping out the “look back” section and instead further expanding eligibility for the poorest families who qualify for the credit. Crapo rejected that offer: He has said negotiations with Wyden were “at a standstill.”

“The issue set is the same issue set that’s been out there for a couple of weeks now,” Crapo told The Washington Post before Congress went on recess at the end of March.

Ultimately, public support for the bill hinges on Crapo’s stance in negotiations, the people and multiple lawmakers said. Lawmakers say Crapo, who is in line to chair the Finance Committee if Republicans retake the Senate in November’s elections, is eyeing a larger tax package in 2025 that could contain more conservative policies and hopes to use the prospect of a GOP-written tax plan next year to extract more changes from Wyden — or defeat the measure entirely.

Trillions of dollars in tax cuts enacted under Trump are slated to expire at the end of 2025, which means Congress will probably be working on tax policy next year regardless of who wins the elections.

“I think Crapo wants to make it better,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said. “I like to help people raising children with the child tax credit, and there’s a bunch of other business things in there that I hear a lot about from my constituents. But with work requirements, there’s some things that Crapo wants to do and I sort of trust his judgment.”

Another key Republican, Sen. Mike Rounds (S.D.), echoed that sentiment.

“I have spoken with our ranking member, Mike Crapo, and I don’t think it’s ready for prime time yet,” Rounds said. “I think they’re still negotiating. But I’ll take my cue right now based on what his analysis is.”

Wyden is still offering to drop the ability for taxpayers to use a previous year’s return to quality if it will draw Republicans on board.

“While I think the policy is important, I’ve offered to take it out of the bill if it gets this over the finish line,” he said during a committee hearing in late March. “Working with groups, we have found a way to do this and still lift the same number of kids out of poverty. As of this morning, my offer on the look back is still on the table.”

Some key Republicans hope Wyden succeeds. A high-profile Finance Committee member, Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.), urged Senate leaders to move forward even if Crapo cannot secure more changes to the legislation. And a member of GOP leadership, Sen. Steve Daines (Mont.), has said the bill even without changes was “very important for global competitiveness” because of the corporate tax provisions.

The new legislation would expand the child tax credit to allow low-income families to claim the benefit for multiple children; under current law, the lowest-earning families can only receive the credit for one child. Starting in 2025, for the 2024 tax year, the benefit would be linked to inflation, which would add up to a roughly $100 boost next year.

The proposed larger refundable tax credits for more low-income parents could lift 400,000 children out of poverty, according to nonpartisan estimates. And Democrats and Republicans alike have cheered provisions that would allow businesses to write off research-and-development and interest expenses and investments in new equipment.

The tax credit was expanded temporarily in 2021, increasing the amount it provided and extending eligibility. Those changes kept 3 million children out of poverty, according to research conducted by Columbia University’s Center on Poverty & Social Policy. But the expansion expired at the end of 2021, and child poverty rates jumped back up after that.

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The key issues and who stands to benefit

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U.S. President Donald Trump announces the NFL draft will be held in Washington, at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 5, 2025.

Leah Millis | Reuters

As negotiations ramp up for President Donald Trump‘s tax agenda, there are key issues to watch, according to policy experts.   

The House Ways and Means Committee, which oversees taxes, released a preliminary partial text of its portion of the bill on Friday evening. However, the bill could change significantly before the final vote. The full committee will debate and advance this legislation on Tuesday.

With control of the White House and both chambers of Congress, Republican lawmakers can pass Trump’s package without Democratic support via a process known as “reconciliation,” which bypasses the Senate filibuster with a simple majority vote.

But reconciliation involves multiple steps, and the proposals must fit within a limited budget framework. That could be tricky given competing priorities, experts say. 

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“The narrow [Republican] majority in the House is going to make that process very difficult” because a handful of votes can block the bill, said Alex Muresianu, senior policy analyst at the Tax Foundation.

Plus, some lawmakers want a “more fiscally responsible package,” which could impact individual provisions, according to Shai Akabas, vice president of economic policy for the Bipartisan Policy Center.

As negotiations continue, here are some key tax proposals that could impact millions of Americans.

Extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts

The preliminary House Ways and Means text includes some temporary and permanent enhancements beyond the TCJA. These include boosts to the standard deduction, child tax credit, tax bracket inflation adjustments, the estate tax exemption and pass-through business deduction, among others.

Child tax credit expansion

Some lawmakers are also pushing for bigger tax breaks than what’s currently offered via the TCJA provisions.

“The child tax credit is one that we’re watching very closely,” Akabas said. “There’s a lot of bipartisan agreement on preserving and hopefully expanding that.”  

TCJA temporarily increased the maximum child tax credit to $2,000 from $1,000 per child under age 17, and boosted eligibility. These changes are scheduled to sunset after 2025.

The House in February 2024 passed a bipartisan bill to expand the child tax credit, which would have boosted access and refundability. The bill didn’t clear the Senate, but Republicans expressed interest in revisiting the issue.  

The early House Ways and Means text proposes expanding the maximum child tax credit to $2,500 per child for four years starting in 2025.

‘SALT’ deduction relief

Another TCJA provision — the $10,000 limit on the deduction for state and local taxes, known as “SALT” — was added to the 2017 legislation to help fund other tax breaks. That provision will also expire after 2025.

Before the change, filers who itemized tax breaks could claim an unlimited deduction for SALT. But the so-called alternative minimum tax reduced the benefit for some higher earners. 

Repealing the SALT cap has been a priority for certain lawmakers from high-tax states like California, New Jersey and New York. In a policy reversal, Trump has also voiced support for a more generous SALT deduction. 

“If you raise the cap, the people who benefit the most are going to be upper-middle-income,” since lower earners typically don’t itemize tax deductions, Howard Gleckman, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, previously told CNBC.

The SALT deduction was absent from the preliminary House Ways and Means text. But Congressional negotiations are ongoing.

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Trump’s campaign ideas

On top of TCJA extensions, Trump has also recently renewed calls for additional tax breaks he pitched on the campaign trail, including no tax on tips, tax-free overtime pay and tax-exempt Social Security benefits. These ideas were not yet included in the early House Ways and Means text.  

However, there are lingering questions about the specifics of these provisions, including possible guardrails to prevent abuse, experts say.

For example, you could see a questionable “reclassification of income” to qualify for no tax on tips or overtime pay, said Muresianu. “But there are ways you could mitigate the damage.”

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How top tax rates compare, as Trump eyes hike for wealthy

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U.S. President Donald Trump points as he attends the annual Friends of Ireland luncheon hosted by U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 12, 2025. 

Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

As Republicans wrestle with funding their massive spending and tax package, President Donald Trump is eyeing a possible tax hike for the highest earners.

The idea, which lacks Republican support, could return the top federal income tax rate to 2017 levels for some of the wealthiest Americans.  

In a phone call Thursday, NBC reported, Trump pressed House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., to raise the top income tax rate on the wealthiest Americans and close the so-called carried interest loophole. The proposal would revert the 37% rate to 39.6% for individuals making $2.5 million or more per year, to help preserve Medicaid and tax cuts for everyday Americans.

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Trump on Friday expressed openness to the tax hike on the wealthiest Americans in a Truth Social post, noting he would “graciously accept” the tax increase to “help the lower and middle income workers.”

“Republicans should probably not do it, but I’m OK if they do!!!” he wrote.

Enacted by Trump, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, or TCJA, of 2017 created sweeping tax breaks for individuals and businesses. Most will sunset after 2025 without an extension from Congress.

The TCJA temporarily dropped the highest income tax rate from 39.6% to 37%. For 2025, the 37% rate kicks in for single filers once taxable income exceeds $626,350.    

How Trump’s idea compares to historic rates

If signed into law, a top 39.6% income tax rate would return wealthy taxpayers to pre-TCJA levels from 2013 to 2017. Before that, the top rate was 35% during most of the early 2000s, according to data collected by the Tax Policy Center. The highest top rate was 94% from 1944-1945.

However, this data doesn’t reflect how much income was subject to top rates or the value of standard and itemized deductions during these periods, the organization noted.

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Push for higher taxes on the wealthy: Inside President Trump's tax agenda

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Real estate and gold vs. stocks: Best long-term investment

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Brendon Thorne | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Some Americans believe real estate and gold are the best long-term investments. Advisors think that’s misguided.

About 37% of surveyed U.S. adults view real estate as the best investment for the long haul, according to a new report by Gallup, a global analytics and advisory firm. That figure is roughly unchanged from 36% last year

Gold was the second-most-popular choice, with 23% of surveyed respondents. That’s five points higher than last year. 

To compare, just 16% put their faith in stocks or mutual funds as the best long-term investment — a decline of six percentage points from 2024’s report, Gallup found.

The firm polled 1,006 adults in early April.

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Financial advisors caution that this preference is likely more about buzz than fundamentals. Be careful about getting caught up in the hype, said certified financial planner Lee Baker, the founder, owner and president of Claris Financial Advisors in Atlanta.

Carolyn McClanahan, a CFP and founder of Life Planning Partners in Jacksonville, Florida, agreed: “People are always chasing what’s hot, and that’s the stupidest thing you could do.”

Here’s what investors need to know about gold and real estate, and how to incorporate them in your portfolio.

Why gold and real estate are alluring

Baker understands why people like the idea of real estate and gold: Both are tangible objects versus stocks. 

“You buy a house, you can see it, feel it, touch it. Your investment in stocks perhaps doesn’t feel real,” said Baker, a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council.

While the preference for gold grew this year, the share of Gallup respondents who think it’s the best long-term investment is still below the record high of 34% in 2011. Back then, gold investors sought refuge amid high unemployment, a crippled housing market and volatile stocks, Gallup noted.

Gold prices have been trending upward this spring. Spot gold prices hit an all-time high of above $3,500 per ounce in late April. One year ago, prices were about $2,200 to $2,300 an ounce.

Real estate has also drawn more interest in recent years amid high demand from buyers and accelerating prices. The median sale price for an existing home in the U.S. in March was $403,700, according to Bankrate. That is down from the record high of $426,900 in June.

Why stocks are the better bet

While real estate and gold are two assets that can appreciate in value over time, the stock market will generally grow at a much higher rate, experts say.

The annualized total return of S&P 500 stocks is 10.29% over the 30-year period ending in April, per Morningstar Direct data. Over the same time frame, the annualized total return for real estate is 8.78% and for gold, 7.38%.

McClanahan also points out that unlike gold and real estate, stocks are diversified assets, meaning you’re spreading out your cash versus concentrating it into one investment.

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How to include gold, real estate into your portfolio

If you are among the Americans that want exposure to real estate or gold, there are different ways to do it wisely, experts say.

For real estate, financial advisors say investors might look into real estate investment trusts, also known as REITs, or consider investments that bundle real estate stocks, like exchange-traded funds.

An REIT is a publicly traded company that invests in different types of income-producing residential or commercial real estate, such as apartments or office buildings.

In many cases, you can buy shares of publicly traded REITs like you would a stock, or shares of a REIT mutual fund or exchange-traded fund. REIT investors typically make money through dividend payments.

Real estate mutual funds and exchange-traded funds will typically invest in multiple REITs and in the real estate market broadly. It’s even more diversified than investing in a single REIT.

Either way, you’re exposed to real estate without concentrating into a single property, and it will help diversify your portfolio, McClanahan said. 

Similar to gold — instead of stocking up on gold bullions, consider investing in gold through ETFs.

That way you avoid having to deal with finding a place to store or hide physical gold, you wash off the stress of it getting stolen or making sure it’s covered by your home insurance policy, experts say. 

“With the ETF, you actually get the value of the return of gold, but you don’t actually own it,” McClanahan said.

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