Personal Finance

How tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico may impact U.S. consumers

Published

3 months ago

January 31, 2025

Business Finance News

President Donald Trump on Jan. 27, 2025 in Doral, Florida.

Joe Raedle | Getty Images News | Getty Images

President Donald Trump has repeatedly discussed imposing tariffs, both on the campaign trail and since taking office — and the first tranche, on goods from Canada, China and Mexico will take effect Feb. 1, the White House confirmed on Friday.

While there are still some unknowns, one thing is clear, economists said: U.S. consumers should brace for a negative financial impact.

It’s “hard to find positives” from tariffs, said Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, whose research specializes in trade with China and global supply chains.

Trump plans to put 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, and a 10% duty on China, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said Friday.

China, Mexico and Canada are the three largest trading partners with the U.S., as measured by imported goods. They respectively supplied about $536 billion, $455 billion, and $437 billion of goods to the U.S. in 2022, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

President Trump to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Feb. 1

Tariffs are a tax on foreign imports. U.S. businesses pay that tax to the federal government.

Many businesses will funnel those extra costs to customers — either directly or indirectly — which is why tariffs generally trigger higher prices for consumers, economists said.

“Part of these tariffs will be passed on to consumers,” Lovely said.

Americans could also find they have fewer choices for brands and products stocked on store shelves, she said.

Exemptions may ‘limit the damage’ to consumers

There are still many question marks over the looming tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico.

For example, it’s unclear if any imports will be exempt. Trump suggested this week, for example, that Canadian oil might be exempt. The White House said the tariffs will be open for public inspection on Saturday.

Discussions around such specifics are “ongoing,” a White House official told CNBC Friday morning.

Auto stocks will be hit hard by Trump's proposed Canada & Mexico tariffs, says RBC's Tom Narayan

“There are always exemptions and carve-outs,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s.

Trump might try to “limit the damage to the U.S. consumer” via those exemptions, Zandi said. For example, he could choose not to impose duties on apparel from China, avocados from Mexico or cheese from Quebec, he said.

Debates about economic impact

The White House expects tariffs and Trump’s broader economic agenda to benefit the U.S. economy.

Trump imposed tariffs during his first term that — along with tax cuts, deregulation and energy policy — “resulted in historic job, wage, and investment growth with no inflation,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a written statement.

During his second term, Trump will use tariffs again to “usher in a new era of growth and prosperity for American industry and workers,” Desai said.

A 25% Canada-Mexico tariff and 10% China tariff would raise about $1.3 trillion in revenue through 2035 on a net basis, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates. That revenue may be used to partially offset the cost of tax cuts, a package that might cost more than $5 trillion over 10 years.

However, a 10% additional tariff on China would shrink the U.S. economy by $55 billion during the Trump administration’s second term, assuming China retaliates with its own tariffs, according to an analysis by Warwick McKibbin and Marcus Noland, economists at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

A 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada would cause a $200 billion reduction in U.S. gross domestic product, they found.

Meanwhile, economists expect more tariffs in the future.

On the campaign trail, Trump floated a 10% or 20% universal tariff on all imports and a tariff of at least 60% on Chinese goods, for example.

A 20% worldwide tariff and a 60% levy on Chinese goods would raise costs by $3,000 in 2025 for the average U.S. household, according to an October analysis by the Tax Policy Center.

“Broad-based, universal tariffs and the damage they will do is not really a debate,” Zandi said. “They will do damage. It’s just a question of how much and to whom.”

How tariffs may impact consumers

Consumers can pay for tariffs both directly and indirectly, economists said.

Tariffs on China would likely have such the largest direct impact on consumers — the bulk of what China exports to the U.S. is consumer goods like apparel, toys and electronics, Zandi said.

China is the “dominant supplier” of toys and sports equipment to the U.S., and provides 40% of its footwear imports, and 25% of its electronics and textiles, according to a recent analysis by PIIE economists.

Mexico and Canada tariffs would also “put upward pressure on food prices,” according to PIIE economists.

The nations are “important sources” of vegetables, accounting for 47% of total U.S. imports, and prepared foodstuffs (42%), for example. Transportation equipment and machinery, electronics and fuel are other sectors that stand to be most impacted, they found.

“The U.S. imports roughly 40% of its crude oil, with Canada as the dominant supplier,” Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, a financial consulting firm, said in a written statement.

“If oil is hit with tariffs, the impact could hit energy markets, pushing up costs for businesses and consumers,” Green wrote.

However, domestic energy producers, certain U.S. manufacturers and other industries “could see short-term gains from reduced competition,” he added.

Indirectly, U.S. producers might raise their prices because they face less foreign competition for certain goods, Lydia Cox, an assistant professor of economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said during a recent webinar.

U.S. companies that use tariffed goods to manufacture their products might also raise prices for downstream goods, Cox said. For example, steel tariffs might lead to higher prices for cars, heavy machinery and other products that use steel.

Tariffs ‘create a lot of collateral damage’

Other nations might also respond with retaliatory tariffs that start a trade war, which might cause U.S. producers to lose sales abroad, she said.

“Unlike Canada and Mexico, for which retaliation would be inconceivable, China has retaliated in the past and would likely do so again,” PIIE economists wrote recently.

Further, tariffs may have the unintended consequence of destroying jobs, economists said.

Their ability to create U.S. jobs is “vastly, vastly overstated,” said Lovely of PIIE.

Take steel, for example. There are 80 workers in jobs in industries that use steel as an input for every one job that produces steel, Cox found in a recent paper.

Tariffs create “a lot of collateral damage along the way,” which is why economists warn against broad-based use, Cox said.

Personal Finance

What student loan forgiveness opportunities still remain under Trump

Published

4 hours ago

April 26, 2025

Business Finance News

Halfpoint Images | Moment | Getty Images

Under the Biden administration, the U.S. Department of Education made regular announcements that it was forgiving student debt for thousands of people under various relief programs and repayment plans.

That’s changed under President Donald Trump.

In his first few months in office, Trump — who has long been critical of education debt cancellation — signed an executive order aimed at limiting eligibility for the popular Public Service Loan Forgiveness program, and his Education Department revised some student loan repayment plans to no longer conclude in debt erasure.

“You have the administration trying to limit PSLF credits, and clear attacks on the income-based repayment with forgiveness options,” said Malissa Giles, a consumer bankruptcy attorney in Virginia.

The White House did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

Here’s what to know about the current status of federal student loan forgiveness opportunities.

Forgiveness chances narrow on repayment plans

The Biden administration’s new student loan repayment plan, Saving on a Valuable Education, or SAVE, isn’t expected to survive under Trump, experts say. A U.S. appeals court already blocked the plan in February after a GOP-led challenge to the program.

SAVE came with two key provisions that lawsuits targeted: It had lower monthly payments than any other federal student loan repayment plan, and it led to quicker debt erasure for those with small balances.

“I personally think you will see SAVE dismantled through the courts or the administration,” Giles said.

But the Education Department under Trump is now arguing that the ruling by the 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals required it to end the loan forgiveness under repayment plans beyond SAVE. As a result, the Pay As You Earn and Income-Contingent Repayment options no longer wipe debt away after a certain number of years.

There’s some good news: At least one repayment plan still leads to debt erasure, said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz. That plan is called Income-Based Repayment.

If a borrower enrolled in ICR or PAYE eventually switches to IBR, their previous payments made under the other plans will count toward loan forgiveness under IBR, as long as they meet the IBR’s other requirements, Kantrowitz said. (Some borrowers may opt to take that strategy if they have a lower monthly bill under ICR or PAYE than they would on IBR.)

Public Service Loan Forgiveness remains

Despite Trump‘s executive order in March aimed at limiting eligibility for Public Service Loan Forgiveness, the program remains intact. Any changes to the program would likely take months or longer to materialize, and may even need congressional approval, experts say.

PSLF, which President George W. Bush signed into law in 2007, allows many not-for-profit and government employees to have their federal student loans canceled after 10 years of payments.

What’s more, any changes to PSLF can’t be retroactive, consumer advocates say. That means that if you are currently working for or previously worked for an organization that the Trump administration later excludes from the program, you’ll still get credit for that time — at least up until when the changes go into effect.

For now, the language in the president’s executive order was fairly vague. As a result, it remains unclear exactly which organizations will no longer be considered a qualifying employer under PSLF, experts said.

However, in his first few months in office, Trump has targeted immigrants, transgender and nonbinary people and those who work to increase diversity across the private and public sector. Many nonprofits work in these spaces, providing legal support or doing advocacy and education work.

For now, those pursuing PSLF should print out a copy of their payment history on StudentAid.gov or request one from their loan servicer. They should keep a record of the number of qualifying payments they’ve made so far, said Jessica Thompson, senior vice president of The Institute for College Access & Success.

“We urge borrowers to save all documentation of their payments, payment counts, and employer certifications to ensure they have any information that might be useful in the future,” Thompson said.

Other loan cancellation opportunities to consider

Federal student loan borrowers also remain entitled to a number of other student loan forgiveness opportunities.

The Teacher Loan Forgiveness program offers up to $17,500 in loan cancellation to those who’ve worked full time for “complete and consecutive academic years in a low-income school or educational service agency,” among other requirements, according to the Education Department.

(One thing to note: This program can’t be combined with PSLF, and so borrowers should decide which avenue makes the most sense for them.)

In less common circumstances, you may be eligible for a full discharge of your federal student loans under Borrower Defense if your school closed while you were enrolled or if you were misled by your school or didn’t receive a quality education.

Borrowers may qualify for a Total and Permanent Disability discharge if they suffer from a mental or physical disability that is severe and permanent and prevents them from working. Proof of the disability can come from a doctor, the Social Security Administration or the Department of Veterans Affairs.

With the federal government rolling back student loan forgiveness measures, experts also recommend that borrowers explore the many state-level relief programs available. The Institute of Student Loan Advisors has a database of student loan forgiveness programs by state.

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Personal Finance

Many Americans are worried about running out of money in retirement

Published

23 hours ago

April 25, 2025

Business Finance News

M Swiet Productions | Getty Images

Many Americans are worried they’ll run out of money in retirement.

In fact, a new survey from Allianz Life finds that 64% Americans worry more about running out of money than they do about dying. Among the reasons cited for those fears include high inflation, Social Security benefits not providing enough support and high taxes.

The fear of running out of money was most prominent for Gen Xers who are approaching retirement. However, a majority of millennials and baby boomers also said they worry about their money lasting, according to the online survey of 1,000 individuals conducted between January and February.

Separately, a new Employee Benefit Research Institute report finds most retirees say they are living the lifestyle they envisioned and are able to spend money within reason. Yet more than half of those surveyed agreed at least somewhat that they spend less because of worries they will run out of money, according to the survey of more than 2,700 individuals conducted between January and February.

Meanwhile, a Northwestern Mutual survey reported that 51% of Americans think it’s “somewhat or very likely” they will outlive their savings. The survey polled 4,626 U.S. adults aged 18 and older in January.

Since those studies were conducted, new tariff policies have caused disturbance in the stock markets and prompted speculation that inflation may increase. Meanwhile, new leadership at the Social Security Administration has prompted fears about the continuity of benefits. Those headlines may negatively affect retirement confidence, experts say.

With employers now providing a 401(k) plan and other savings plans versus pensions, it is largely up to workers to manage how much they save heading into retirement and how much they spend once they reach that life stage. That responsibility can also lead to worries of running out of money in the future, experts say.

How to manage the ‘fear of outliving your resources’

Because of the unique risks every individual or couple faces when planning for retirement, the best approach is typically to transfer some of that burden to a third party, said David Blanchett, head of retirement research at PGIM DC Solutions.

Creating a guaranteed lifetime income stream that covers essential expenses can help reduce the financial impact of any events that require retirees to cut back on spending, Blanchett explained.

That should first start with delaying Social Security benefits, he said. While eligible retirees can claim benefits as early as 62, holding off up until age 70 can provide the biggest monthly benefits. Social Security is also unique in that it provides annual adjustments for inflation.

73% of Americans are financially stressed

Next, retirees may want to consider buying a lifetime income annuity that can help amplify the monthly income they can expect. Admittedly, those products can be complicated to understand. Therefore Blanchett recommends starting out by comparing very basic products like single premium immediate annuities that are easier to compare.

“Unless you do those things, you just can’t get rid of that fear of outliving your resources,” Blanchett said.

Without a guaranteed income stream, retirees bear all of the financial risk themselves, he said.

“Retirement could last 10 years; it could last 40 years,” Blanchett said. “You just don’t know how long it’s going to be.”

Among retirees, there has been some hesitation to buy annuities, said Craig Copeland, EBRI’s director of wealth benefits research. Such a purchase requires parting with a lump sum of money in exchange for the promise of a guaranteed income stream.

“We see great increase in interest, but we aren’t seeing upticks in take up yet,” Copeland said. “I do think that’s going to start to change.”

What can help boost retirement confidence

To effectively plan for retirement, it helps to seek professional financial assistance, experts say.

Meanwhile, few people have a plan of their own for how they may live on the assets they’ve worked hard to accumulate, according to Kelly LaVigne, vice president of consumer insights at Allianz Life.

“This is something that you should not plan on doing on your own,” LaVigne said.

While the survey from Northwestern Mutual separately found individuals think they need $1.26 million to retire comfortably, the real number individuals need is based on their personal situation, said Kyle Menke, founder and wealth management advisor at Menke Financial, a Northwestern Mutual company.

In thinking about how life will look in 30 years, there are a variety of things to consider, Menke said. This includes stock market returns, taxes, inflation and medical expenses, he said.

Even people who have enough money for retirement often don’t feel confident in their ability to manage all of those factors on their own, he said. Financial advisors have the ability to run different simulations and stress test a plan, which can help give retirees and aspiring retirees the confidence they’re lacking.

“I think that’s where the biggest gap is,” said Menke, referring to the confidence Americans are lacking without a plan.

Personal Finance

Trump tariffs will hurt lower income Americans more than the rich: study

Published

1 day ago

April 25, 2025

Business Finance News

Shipping containers at the Port of Seattle on April 16, 2025.

David Ryder/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Tariffs levied by President Donald Trump during his second term would hurt the poorest U.S. households more than the richest over the short term, according to a new analysis.

Tariffs are a tax that importers pay on foreign goods. Economists expect consumers to shoulder at least some of that tax burden in the form of higher prices, depending on how businesses pass along the costs.

In 2026, taxes for the poorest 20% of households would rise about four times more than those in the top 1%, if the current tariff policies were to stay in place. Those were findings according to an analysis published Wednesday by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy.

Car prices are going up from Trump's auto tariffs 'unless something changes': Liberty Subaru owner

For the bottom 20% of households — who will have incomes of less than $29,000 in 2026 — the tariffs will impose a tax increase equal to 6.2% of their income that year, on average, according to ITEP’s analysis.

Meanwhile, those in the top 1%, with an income of more than $915,000 a year, would see their taxes rise 1.7% relative to their income, on average, ITEP found.

Economists analyze the financial impact of policy relative to household income because it illustrates how their disposable income — and quality of life — are impacted.

Taxes by ‘another name’

“Tariffs are just taxes on Americans by another name,” researchers at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, wrote in 2017, during Trump’s first term.

“[They] raise the price of food and clothing, which make up a larger share of a low-income household’s budget,” they wrote, adding: “In fact, cutting tariffs could be the biggest tax cut low-income families will ever see.”

Meanwhile, there’s already evidence that some retailers are raising costs.

A recent analysis by the Yale Budget Lab also found that Trump tariffs are a “regressive” policy, meaning they hurt those at the bottom more than the top.

The short-term tax burden of tariffs is about 2.5 times greater for those at the bottom, the Yale analysis found. It examined tariffs and retaliatory trade measures through April 15.

“Lower income consumers are going to get pinched more by tariffs,” said Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Yale Budget Lab and former chief economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisers during the Biden administration.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said tariffs may lead to a “one-time price adjustment” for consumers. But he also coupled trade policy as part of a broader White House economic agenda that includes a forthcoming legislative package of tax cuts.

“We’re also working on the tax bill and for working Americans, I believe that the reduction in taxes is going to be substantially more,” Bessent said April 2.

It’s also unclear how current tariff policy might change. The White House has signaled trade deals with certain nations and exemptions for certain products may be in the offing.

Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on imports from most U.S. trading partners. Mexico and Canada face 25% levies on a tranche of goods, and many Chinese goods face import duties of 145%. Specific products also face tariffs, like a 25% duty on aluminum, steel and automobiles.