Finance
How the stock market is likely to react to the election outcome
Published
6 months agoon

Election Day is just one week away, and the outcome is set to have wide-ranging consequences for markets regardless of who wins the White House or which party controls each chamber of Congress. Stocks are uncharacteristically strong heading into the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5, with all three major averages at or near all-time highs even in the face of rising Treasury yields. On Tuesday, the Nasdaq Composite index notched a new record for the second time in three days. But either way the results fall on Nov. 5 has the potential to roil markets — especially after an exceptionally tight race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, according to the latest NBC News poll . “No matter how the election results come in, it’s certain that there will be lasting effects for both U.S. and global markets,” Mike Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners, wrote in a recent paper. The candidates’ policies could hardly be more different. Trump has promised expansive tax cuts for companies and individuals, in addition to stepped up tariffs and a mass deportation of illegal immigrants. Harris has promised higher taxes on corporations and the rich, and expansions of housing and health care spending. Both, however, would implement policies that raise what is already a yawning budget deficit. It’s a concern perhaps picked up by bond investors, who briefly drove the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury near 4.34% on Tuesday. Here is how stocks might react to a variety of outcomes. A Trump win, with or without a Republican sweep A Trump victory, with an uncontested Republican sweep of Congress, is projected to be a bullish development for equities. It’s an outcome that markets appear to already be pricing in . Not only are the three major stock averages at or near all-time highs, the outperformance of banks in particular points to further cyclical leadership in the event that Trump wins the November election. The SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) has jumped nearly 5% since the fourth quarter began on Oct. 1, while the S & P 500 is ahead a little more than 1%. Julian Emanuel, senior managing director leading the equity, derivatives, and quantitative strategy team at Evercore ISI, expects the vote could lead to a “‘performance chase’ meltup” that pushes the S & P 500 over 6,000 after the election, and close to 6,300 by year-end. Other market observers also expect a Republican sweep will be bullish for equities. “If you do get Trump in a Red Sweep, you’re going to get this cyclical pile-on,” Warren Pies, 3Fourteen Research co-founder, told CNBC’s ” Closing Bell ” on Friday. The market “could have indigestion” at first blush, “and then all of a sudden everyone realizes, yeah, but nominal GDP is going to be really strong. So, let’s buy this market,” he said. In the event of a Trump win but with a divided Congress, the S & P 500 is likely to remain flat in the days following the election, Emanuel wrote. However, this case has the highest likelihood of a “market meltup” scenario, in which the S & P 500 could soar above 6,450 during what are already the seasonally strong months of November and December. A Harris win, with or without a Democratic sweep A Harris victory, including a sweep of both the House of Representatives and Senate, is expected to act as a negative surprise for markets in the days after the Nov. 5 election. Evercore ISI expects the S & P 500 falling in the 10 days after the election, to roughly 5,700, as markets re-price their expectations. But even under this scenario, the broad market index is still seen surging to close to 6,200 by the end of the year. “I think you could get an after-election opportunity to put money to work,” Jeff Schulze, head of economic and market strategy at ClearBridge Investments, said during a media webcast last week. 3Fourteen Research co-founder Pies expects a Harris win would translate into a drop in cyclical and small-cap stocks, and spur investors to turn to high-quality tech names. He expects bond yields could come off their highs. However, a Harris win, with a split Congress, is an outcome that could spur a drop in the S & P 500 immediately after the election, down to about 5,525, according to Evercore ISI. In this outcome, the S & P 500 could end the year little changed from where it is now if the election results are only lightly contested, or slide to maybe 5,675 if the results are highly contested and there’s a threatened disruption to the transfer of power in January, Evercore ISI’s Emanuel said.
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Finance
These are 3 big things we’re watching in the stock market this week
Published
8 hours agoon
April 27, 2025
A security guard works outside the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) before the Federal Reserve announcement in New York City, U.S., September 18, 2024.
Andrew Kelly | Reuters
The stock market bounce last week showed once again just how dependent Wall Street has become on the whims of the White House.

U.S. brands are rapidly losing their appeal in China as locals increasingly prefer competitive homegrown players, especially as economic growth slows, according to a TD Cowen survey released Thursday. While overall preference for Western brands dropped to 9%, down from 14% last year, certain American companies face higher risks than others, the report said, citing in-person interviews of 2,000 consumers with varied income levels in larger Chinese cities. TD Cowen partnered with an unnamed Beijing-based advisory firm to conduct the survey in February 2025, following a similar study in May 2024. The analysts see Apple ranking among the better-positioned brands in China. But they warned that several other American companies face high regional risks despite management optimism. China’s top leaders on Friday acknowledged the growing effect of trade tensions, and pledged targeted measures for struggling businesses. The official readout stopped short of a full-on stimulus announcement. “This year’s survey was conducted before the US-China trade war intensified, though threats were on the horizon,” the TD Cowen analysts said. “Add this factor to the equation, and it’s easy to see why uncertainty will remain elevated and households are likely to remain cautious going forward.” The survey found income expectations declined, with the share of respondents expecting a decline in pay over the next 12 months rising to 10% from 6%. In particular, Chinese consumers plan to spend less on a beauty items over the next six months, the survey showed, while increasing their preference for Chinese brands. U.S. cosmetics giant Estée Lauder retained first place in terms of highest awareness among Western beauty brands in China, but preference among consumers dropped to 19.6% of respondents, down from 24.3% last year. That contrasted with increases in respondents expressing a preference for the second and third market players Lancome and Chanel, respectively. In the quarter that ended Dec. 31, Estée Lauder said its Asia Pacific net sales fell 11%, due partly to “subdued consumer sentiment in mainland China, Korea and Hong Kong.” Asia Pacific accounted for 32% of overall sales in the quarter. In the lucrative sportswear category, Nike “lost meaningful preference in every category” versus last year, while local competitors Li-Ning and Anta saw gains, the survey found. TD Cowen’s analysis showed that among U.S. sportswear brands facing the most earnings risk relative to consensus expectations, Nike has the highest China sales exposure at 15%. “The China market is one characterized as a growth opportunity for sport according to Nike management in its recent fiscal Q3:25 earnings call in March 2025,” the analysts said, “but that the macro offers an increasingly challenging operating environment.” It’s not necessarily about slower growth or nationalism. While the survey found a 4-percentage-point drop in preference for foreign apparel and footwear brands, it also showed a 3-percentage-point increase in the inclination to buy the “best” product regardless of origin. “The implied perception here is that Western brands are offering less in the way of best product or value,” the TD Cowen analysts said. Starbucks similarly is running into fierce local competition while trying to maintain prices one-third or more above that of competitor Luckin Coffee, the report said. The survey found that the U.S. coffee giant “lags peers in terms of value and quality perception improvement.” Other coffee brands such as Manner, Tim’s, Cotti, %Arabica and M Stand have also expanded recently in China. Starbucks’ same-store sales in China fell 6% year on year in the quarter that ended Dec. 29, bringing the region’s share of total revenue to just under 8%. More worrisome is that a highly anticipated coffee boom in China may not materialize. “We note daily and weekly frequency of purchase among coffee drinkers are decreasing, suggesting the coffee habit seen in the U.S. is not taking hold in China,” the analysts said. They noted a new ownership structure for Starbucks‘ China business would be positive for the stock given the lack of near-term catalysts. TD Cowen rates Starbucks a buy, but has hold ratings on Nike and Estée Lauder.
Finance
Apple iPhone assembly in India won’t cushion China tariffs: Moffett
Published
1 day agoon
April 26, 2025

Leading analyst Craig Moffett suggests any plans to move U.S. iPhone assembly to India is unrealistic.
Moffett, ranked as a top analyst multiple times by Institutional Investor, sent a memo to clients on Friday after the Financial Times reported Apple was aiming to shift production toward India from China by the end of next year.
He’s questioning how a move could bring down costs tied to tariffs because the iPhone components would still be made in China.
“You have a tremendous menu of problems created by tariffs, and moving to India doesn’t solve all the problems. Now granted, it helps to some degree,” the MoffettNathanson partner and senior managing director told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Friday. “I would question how that’s going to work.”
Moffett contends it’s not so easy to diversify to India — telling clients Apple’s supply chain would still be anchored in China and would likely face resistance.
“The bottom line is a global trade war is a two-front battle, impacting costs and sales. Moving assembly to India might (and we emphasize might) help with the former. The latter may ultimately be the bigger issue,” he wrote to clients.
Moffett cut his Apple price target on Monday to $141 from $184 a share. It implies a 33% drop from Friday’s close. The price target is also the Street low, according to FactSet.
“I don’t think of myself as the biggest Apple bear,” he said. “I think quite highly of Apple. My concern about Apple has been the valuation more than the company.”
Moffett has had a “sell” rating on Apple since Jan. 7. Since then, the company’s shares are down about 14%.
“None of this is because Apple is a bad company. They still have a great balance sheet [and] a great consumer franchise,” he said. “It’s just the reality of there are no good answers when you are a product company, and your products are going to be significantly tariffed, and you’re heading into a market that is likely to have at least some deceleration in consumer demand because of the macro economy.”
Moffett notes Apple also isn’t getting help from its carriers to cushion the blow of tariffs.
“You also have the demand destruction that’s created by potentially higher prices. Remember, you had AT&T, Verizon and T. Mobile all this week come out and say we’re not going to underwrite the additional cost of tariff [on] handsets,” he added. “The consumer is going to have to pay for that. So, you’re going to have some demand destruction that’s going to show up in even longer holding periods and slower upgrade rates — all of which probably trims estimates next year’s consensus.”
According to Moffett, the backlash against Apple in China over U.S. tariffs will also hurt iPhone sales.
“It’s a very real problem,” Moffett said. “Volumes are really going to the Huaweis and the Vivos and the local competitors in China rather than to Apple.”
Apple stock is coming off a winning week — up more than 6%. It comes ahead of the iPhone maker’s quarterly earnings report due next Thursday after the market close.
To get more personalized investment strategies, join us for our next “Fast Money” Live event on Thursday, June 5, at the Nasdaq in Times Square.

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