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How the stock market made it back to a new record — even with so much still to worry about

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Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange on June 23, 2025.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

An aggressive trade war, Middle East escalation and AI competitions overseas — None of 2025’s big curveballs managed to spoil the market’s epic comeback from the year’s lows as stocks stand within reach of a new record. Here’s why.

The S&P 500 is just 0.85% away from closing at a new record, rebounding from a near 20% sell-off in April. The tech-focused Nasdaq 100 is already one step ahead, hitting an all-time high on Tuesday. The latest leg higher came as investors bet a ceasefire in the Middle East could prevent a major disruption to global oil supply.

“I’m surprised by the magnitude of the rebound,” said Kevin Simpson, portfolio manager at Capital Wealth Planning. “When you factor in the geopolitical backdrop — the ongoing conflict, volatility and uncertainty — I wouldn’t have expected the S&P 500 to snap back to new highs this quickly. This kind of strength speaks to just how much liquidity is still in the system and how eager investors are to buy dips in a market dominated by megacap tech and AI enthusiasm.” 

Overall, the wall of worry has been crumbling little by little over the past four months. Perhaps most importantly, President Donald Trump backed off from the stiffest tariffs on key U.S. partners as countries continue to negotiate trade deals in the summer. Earlier this month, the U.S. reached a trade truce with China with Beijing agreeing to supply rare earths.

“We expect more trade deals to provide some additional clarity and eventually reduce corporate, consumer and investor anxiety,” Chris Haverland, global equity strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute., said in a note. “Deregulation, tax cuts and lower short-term borrowing rates should further bolster earnings.”

Also, corporate earnings have held up well despite policy uncertainty. For the second quarter, the S&P 500 earnings grew by 4.9%, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of year-over-year earnings growth for the index, according to FactSet.

Economy in good shape

Another reason for market resilience is the U.S. economy, which remains on solid footing. The unemployment rate remains low at 4.2% also the May nonfarm payrolls report showed only a slight softening in the labor market. The most recent inflation data also indicated that tariffs have done little to affect prices.

The Federal Reserve expects to make two rate reductions later this year, according to the closely watched “dot plot.” Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that he expects policymakers to stay on hold until they have a better handle on the impact tariffs will have on prices.

“In our baseline scenario we believe a US recession will be avoided,” Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, chief global equity strategist at JPMorgan, said in a note to clients. “Recent weakness in some of the labour market indicators and limited pass-through from tariffs to inflation so far could prompt a Fed easing earlier than our December forecast.”

AI story intact

Meanwhile, the artificial intelligence story that has supported the market well over two years continues to be unfazed. The latest earnings season has restored investor confidence — Nvidia continued to grow at a rapid clip, while Big Tech’s spending on AI hasn’t slowed down. Investors were rattled at the beginning of the year as China’s DeepSeek startup raised the question whether the billions of dollars of investment was justified.

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Nvidia leading the rally

“The secular trend of AI remains robust, and recent adoption and monetization trends should underpin the next leg of the AI rally amid a supportive backdrop,” Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, head CIO global equities at UBS, said in a note to clients.

JPMorgan estimated that AI could drive $1 trillion of spending by 2030, including investments in generative AI computing, networking and storage infrastructure.

Still, the next few weeks could bring more volatility to the market. Investors are bracing for a July 8 deadline for reciprocal tariff suspension, while more jobs data are on deck next week to gauge the health of the labor market.

“Markets often tend to see more volatility in the build up to conflicts and then rally or turn to other factors once it’s started,” said Carol Schleif, chief market strategist at BMO Private Wealth.

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Treasury Yields Rise as Fed Cut Expectations Shift

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Treasury Yields Rise as Fed Cut Expectations Shift

Fixed-income markets recorded significant re-pricing during the week ending July 25, 2026, as a convergence of strong labor market metrics and surging energy costs drove U.S. Treasury yields higher across all maturities. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward 4.70%, reaching its highest point in several months. Institutional bond investors rapidly adjusted portfolio durations as expectations for near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve faded in response to inflation concerns.

The upward shift in sovereign yields reflects a broader fundamental reassessment of global monetary policy. Earlier in the quarter, money markets had priced in a series of rate reductions designed to support economic activity. However, with initial jobless claims falling to 187,000 and crude oil breaching $100 per barrel, fixed-income traders are pricing in a ‘higher-for-longer’ interest rate environment. The inversion between short-term Treasury bills and long-term bonds narrowed, indicating a shift toward term premium expansion.

Rising Treasury yields present both challenges and opportunities for institutional wealth managers. While commercial lenders and mortgage origination volumes face headwinds from elevated borrowing costs, fixed-income investors are locking in attractive real yields on high-quality sovereign and investment-grade corporate bonds. Institutional debt issuers, conversely, are recalibrating their capital structures, opting for shorter-term refinancing instruments or private credit facilities to avoid committing to elevated long-term coupon rates.

Navigating the current bond market landscape demands strict duration management and credit selection. Wealth advisors recommend maintaining flexible fixed-income allocations, combining short-duration Treasuries with inflation-protected securities (TIPS) to shield capital against potential energy-driven inflation spikes while earning dependable nominal income.

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Private Credit Expansion Transforms Corporate Loans

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Private Credit Expansion Transforms Corporate Loans

Private credit markets reached a pivotal milestone during the week ending July 25, 2026, as non-bank direct lending consortiums captured a record share of middle-market corporate debt originations. With commercial banks maintaining conservative credit standards and public bond yields remaining elevated, corporate borrowers are increasingly turning to private fund managers for customized capital solutions. This expansion marks a permanent structural shift in enterprise finance, establishing private credit as a primary pillar of institutional corporate liquidity.

The acceleration of private credit deals is driven by speed, deal certainty, and flexible terms. Unlike traditional syndicated bank loans that require lengthy underwriting, credit rating approvals, and public roadshows, private direct lenders can structure tailored financing packages within days. Middle-market firms facing upcoming debt maturities are utilizing private debt facilities to execute recapitalizations, strategic acquisitions, and growth capital deployments without risking execution delay in public markets.

However, financial regulators and central bank supervisors are scrutinizing the sector’s rapid growth. Supervisory agencies are evaluating potential systemic risks associated with non-bank leverage, valuation transparency, and liquidity mismatches during economic downturns. Despite regulatory interest, major pension funds, insurance firms, and sovereign wealth entities continue to expand capital allocations to private credit funds, attracted by reliable floating-rate yields that outperform public fixed-income benchmarks.

As private credit matures into a dominant asset class, corporate chief financial officers must evaluate non-bank lenders alongside traditional banking relationships. Direct lending partnerships provide valuable balance sheet resilience, enabling companies to secure flexible financing terms even during periods of public market turbulence.

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Tokenized Debt Shifts How Corporate Manage Short Term Liquidity

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Tokenized Debt Shifts Corporate Liquidity

The landscape of institutional debt markets is undergoing a profound structural shift on July 21, 2026, as major corporate issuers and commercial banks rapidly accelerate the deployment of tokenized debt instruments. Data published by leading capital market consortiums indicates that primary issuances of digital commercial paper and tokenized corporate bonds have reached record volumes this month. By moving legacy debt origination, underwriting, and secondary distribution onto permissioned distributed ledgers, corporate treasurers are unlocking unprecedented operational flexibility and instantaneous cross-border liquidity.

The adoption of tokenized debt is fundamentally altering how enterprise balance sheets manage short-term liquidity needs. Traditional corporate bond settlement cycles historically required multi-day clearing processes involving numerous intermediaries, custodial entities, and clearinghouses. Through programmable smart contracts on distributed ledgers, issuers can now execute atomic settlement—enabling continuous, 24/7 access to institutional capital pools. This instantaneous clearing mechanism drastically reduces counterparty risk, eliminates costly settlement friction, and allows treasury teams to dynamically optimize working capital in real time.

A major catalyst driving this institutional migration is the establishment of comprehensive digital asset regulatory frameworks across major financial hubs. Clear legal guidelines regarding ledger-based securities ownership have provided institutional compliance officers with the regulatory confidence necessary to transition multi-billion-dollar liquidity facilities onto digital platforms. Furthermore, the integration of automated regulatory reporting directly into token smart contracts simplifies ongoing compliance audits, ensuring that secondary market trades automatically enforce investor accreditation limits and tax withholding requirements.

For chief financial officers and institutional portfolio managers, tokenized debt represents a fundamental evolution in fixed-income strategy. Companies that embrace ledger-based debt structures gain direct access to a broader, global base of digital-native institutional investors while substantially reducing borrowing overhead. As ledger interoperability continues to improve across global exchanges, tokenized debt is poised to become the standard infrastructure for global corporate finance.

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