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Hurricane Milton could cause as much as $175 billion in damages, according to early estimates

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Heavy traffic begins to back up on Interstate 275 South as residents evacuate St. Petersburg, Florida, ahead of Hurricane Milton, U.S., October 7, 2024. 

Octavio Jones | Reuters

Hurricane Milton’s once-in-a-century potential could cause damages of more than $50 billion, with the potential to leave behind devastation approaching $175 billion or more in a worst-case scenario, according to leading Wall Street analysts.

That would be on top of the carnage already left behind by Hurricane Helene, posing a potential record-breaking path of wreckage.

“While too early to make insured loss estimates, a major hurricane impact in one of Florida’s most heavily populated regions could result in mid-double-digit billion dollar loss,” Jefferies equity analyst Yaron Kinar and others said in a note. “A 1-in-100 year event is estimated by some to result in $175 [billion] in losses for landfall in the Tampa region, and $70 [billion] in losses in the [Fort] Myers region.”

The extent of the potential is hard to pin down and will depend on timing and location, with a landfall closer to Fort Myers being less costly.

For a historical comparison, analysts need only to look back two years, when Hurricane Ian hit near the Fort Myers area as a Category 4 storm and left behind more than $50 billion in losses. Ian was considered a 1-in-20-year event.

Waters: The damage from Hurricane Helene is $11 billion...most from wind.

“Should Milton’s path through the more developed Tampa region hold, potential losses could be greater,” Kinar said.

Milton is currently at Category 4 as well, though it could weaken by the time its full force is felt.

Wells Fargo noted that the “market seems to be factoring in a loss of over $50 billion (greater than Ian) at this point.” The firm set a wide range for potential damages, from $10 billion to $100 billion.

The region already has been rocked — Helene barreled through the region 12 days ago, and left behind devastation that Moody’s on Tuesday estimated at some $11 billion. In addition to the property damage, Moody’s figures that the National Flood Insurance Program likely will see losses approaching $2 billion.

The firm’s analysts have not yet estimated potential damage from Milton.

Kiki Keen and his father Clinton Keen walk among the debris of their family’s beach house, following Hurricane Helene in Horseshoe Beach, Florida, U.S., September 28, 2024. 

Marco Bello | Reuters

“Hurricane Helene is by far the most impactful event of the current 2024 hurricane season thus far, though this may quickly change with Major Hurricane Milton due to impact Florida in the coming days,” said Mohsen Rahnama, chief risk modeling officer at Moody’s.

Moody’s also noted that many in the worst-affected regions of where Helene hit do not have flood insurance, “meaning most of the damage will be uninsured, and economic property losses will far outweigh insured losses,” said Firas Saleh, the firm’s director of U.S. inland flood models.

Milton weakened a bit Tuesday but was still carrying winds of 145 mph. It is expected to hit Tampa on Wednesday morning and bring 10- to 15-foot storm surges to Tampa Bay.

While the danger and damage to the region is expected to be enormous, the storm does not pose the same danger to adjoining states that Helene pummeled.

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Economics

UK inflation September 2024

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The Canary Wharf business district is seen in the distance behind autumnal leaves on October 09, 2024 in London, United Kingdom.

Dan Kitwood | Getty Images News | Getty Images

LONDON — Inflation in the U.K. dropped sharply to 1.7% in September, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the headline rate to come in at a higher 1.9% for the month, in the first dip of the print below the Bank of England’s 2% target since April 2021.

Inflation has been hovering around that level for the last four months, and came in at 2.2% in August.

Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, came in at 3.2% for the month, down from 3.6% in August and below the 3.4% forecast of a Reuters poll.

Price rises in the services sector, the dominant portion of the U.K. economy, eased significantly to 4.9% last month from 5.6% in August, now hitting its lowest rate since May 2022.

Core and services inflation are key watch points for Bank of England policymakers as they mull whether to cut interest rates again at their November meeting.

As of Wednesday morning, market pricing put an 80% probability on a November rate cut ahead of the latest inflation print. Analysts on Tuesday said lower wage growth reported by the ONS this week had supported the case for a cut. The BOE reduced its key rate by 25 basis points in August before holding in September.

Within the broader European region, inflation in the euro zone dipped below the European Central Bank’s 2% target last month, hitting 1.8%, according to the latest data.

This is a breaking news story and will be updated shortly.

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Economics

Why Larry Hogan’s long-odds bid for a Senate seat matters

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FEW REPUBLICAN politicians differ more from Donald Trump than Larry Hogan, the GOP Senate candidate in Maryland. Consider the contrasts between a Trump rally and a Hogan event. Whereas Mr Trump prefers to take the stage and riff in front of packed arenas, Mr Hogan spent a recent Friday night chatting with locals at a waterfront wedding venue in Baltimore County. Mr Hogan’s stump speech, at around ten minutes, felt as long as a single off-script Trump tangent. Mr Trump delights in defying his advisers; Mr Hogan fastidiously sticks to talking points about bipartisanship, good governance and overcoming tough odds. Put another way, Mr Hogan’s campaign is something Mr Trump is rarely accused of being: boring. But it is intriguing.

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Economics

Polarisation by education is remaking American politics

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DEPENDING ON where exactly you find yourself, western Pennsylvania can feel Appalachian, Midwestern, booming or downtrodden. No matter where, however, this part of the state feels like the centre of the American political universe. Since she became the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Kamala Harris has visited Western Pennsylvania six times—more often than Philadelphia, on the other side of the state. She will mark her seventh on a trip on October 14th, to the small city of Erie, where Donald Trump also held a rally recently. Democratic grandees flit through Pittsburgh regularly. It is where Ms Harris chose to unveil the details of her economic agenda, and it is where Barack Obama visited on October 10th to deliver encouragement and mild chastisement. “Do not just sit back and hope for the best,” he admonished. “Get off your couch and vote.”

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