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Looming $2.7 billion Pell Grant shortfall poses threat to college aid

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College advocates breathed a sigh of relief when the U.S. Department of Education said the Trump Administration’s “federal funding freeze” would not affect federal Pell Grants and student loans

Nearly 75% of all undergraduates receive some type of financial aid, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. About 40% of college students rely on Pell Grants, a type of federal aid available to low-income families who demonstrate financial need on the Free Application for Federal Student Aid application.

For these students and their families, this aid is crucial for college access.

However, there’s a problem brewing.

The Congressional Budget Office in January released new supplemental projections for the Pell Grant program, which now estimate a $2.7 billion funding shortfall for the 2025 fiscal year. 

“If program funding is not shored up, students could face eligibility or funding cuts for the first time in more than a decade,” said Michele Zampini, senior director of college affordability at The Institute for College Access & Success. “We are back in the danger zone.”

More students qualify for Pell Grants

The new, simplified FAFSA, which first launched in 2023, was meant to improve access by expanding Pell Grant eligibility to provide more financial support to low- and middle-income families.

But overall, the number of Pell Grant recipients is down significantly.

In fact, the number of Pell Grant recipients peaked over a decade ago, when 9.4 million students were awarded grants in the 2011-12 academic year, and sank 32% to 6.4 million in 2023-24, according to the College Board, which tracks trends in college pricing and student aid.

Now data from the Department of Education shows that many more students are on track to receive Pell Grants this year: As of Dec. 31, more than 9.3 million 2024–25 FAFSA applicants were eligible for a Pell Grant. Among recent high school graduates attending college for the first time, the number of Pell recipients is up 3.3% compared to a year earlier, an increase of approximately 30,000 students.

Why this year is problematic for Pell Grants

Although there have been other times when the Pell Grant program operated with a deficit, this year’s shortfall “was perhaps made worse by the changes to Pell Grant eligibility that increased the number of students eligible for the Pell Grant starting in 2024-25,” said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

Not only do more students now qualify for a Pell Grant because of changes to the financial aid application, but more students are also enrolling in college — a reversal from the significant decline in college-bound students after the pandemic.

Freshmen enrollment jumped 5.5% this fall compared with last year, with the sharpest gains among those from the lowest-income neighborhoods, according to a recent analysis by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. (Because of a “methodological error” in research group’s preliminary enrollment findings, the rebound in freshmen enrollment this year was particularly striking.)

“They really low-balled enrollment projections,” Zampini said. “Program costs are based on how many students are expected to enroll in a given year and how many of those students will be eligible for Pell funding.”

The Congressional Budget Office’s projected change from a surplus to a deficit is due in part to that shift in enrollment figures from a decrease to an increase, according to Kantrowitz. 

How the Pell Grant program is funded

The Pell program functions like other entitlement programs, such as Social Security or Medicare, where every eligible student is entitled to receive a Pell award.

However, unlike those other programs, the Pell program does not rely solely on mandatory funding that is set in the federal budget. Rather, it is also dependent on some discretionary funding, which is appropriated by Congress.

In 2024, the discretionary portion of Pell Grant program was estimated to cost about $24.5 billion, funded with $22.5 billion of appropriations, $1.2 billion of mandatory dollars and less than $1 billion of reserves, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

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Because Congress appropriates discretionary funds for the program based on projections of how much it will cost in the upcoming year, “there is an inevitable annual mismatch between how much the program costs and how much funding is actually available,” Zampini said.

“It becomes a guessing game,” she added.

In previous years, Congress has provided supplemental funding to avoid a shortfall. But if Congress doesn’t fix this problem, “the U.S. Department of Education would be forced to respond by either cutting eligibility or the average grant,” Kantrowitz said.

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Already, those grants have not kept up with the rising cost of a four-year degree. Currently, the maximum Pell Grant award is $7,395 — after notching a $500 increase in the 2023-34 academic year.

Meanwhile, tuition and fees plus room and board for a four-year private college averaged $58,600 in the 2024-25 school year, up from $56,390 a year earlier. At four-year, in-state public colleges, it was $24,920, up from $24,080, according to the College Board.

Future deficits could be even greater if the maximum Pell Grant award is adjusted to keep pace with inflation in the years ahead. In one scenario, the Pell Grant program could face a $38 billion cumulative shortfall over the next decade as awards are inflation adjusted, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget also found.

Adding to the complications this year, the Trump administration is reportedly looking for ways to close parts or all of the Department of Education, which is responsible for disbursing college aid.

“I am very concerned about the idea that there would be no Education Department,” Zampini said, but “the Pell program has always been bipartisan given its effectiveness and we are hoping that will continue to be the case.”

Even if the Education Department no longer existed, another government agency would likely administer the task of distributing those funds, other experts say.

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Personal Finance

DOGE purge at FDIC threaten nation’s banking system

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U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) speaks to a crowd gathered in front of the U.S. Treasury Department in protest of Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency on Feb. 4, 2025 in Washington, DC.

Anna Rose Layden | Getty Images

In response to a request from Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. will review President Donald Trump‘s recent move to lay off more workers at the watchdog agency.

Backed by the Trump administration, Elon Musk and his advisory group, the Department of Government Efficiency, reduced the FDIC staff by around 1,000 employees so far this year through buyout offers and the layoffs of probationary employees, according to reports. The additional firings were part of a larger effort to shrink the federal bureaucracy.

The FDIC is already severely understaffed, which “threatens the stability of the banking system,” Warren, D-Mass., said in a letter sent on Feb. 10 to Inspector General Jennifer Fain and shared exclusively with CNBC. Senators Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., and Lisa Blunt Rochester, D-Del., also signed the letter.

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Fain responded to the lawmakers in a letter dated Feb. 19, which was also shared exclusively with CNBC, saying “the full effect and impact on the structure and mission of the FDIC due to the hiring freeze, deferred resignations, and any reshaping and restructuring remain to be seen.”

Further, Fain said, “we will be adapting our oversight work to better understand and determine the effect of recent changes and their impact on the FDIC to maintain stability and confidence in nation’s banking system.”

In a statement Thursday, Warren said she was “pleased that the FDIC Inspector General will review the threats to the stability of the banking system caused by the Trump Administration’s recent buyouts, terminations, and job rescissions to bank examiners and other FDIC staff.”

“These cuts threaten the reliability and integrity of federal deposit insurance and inhibit the FDIC’s capacity to ensure the stability and confidence that underpin our nation’s banking system,” she said.

Risks of ‘a shortage of cops on the beat’

In the initial letter to Fain, the senators said staffing shortages directly contributed to Signature Bank‘s failure in March 2023.

The lack of examiners “led to a series of supervisory delays, canceled or postponed exams, and quality control issues in the supervision of Signature,” the letter said.

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“The lesson learned in this case was that a shortage of cops on the beat can threaten the safety and soundness of the banking system and pose risks to the Deposit Insurance Fund,” the letter stated.

The incident marked the largest U.S. banking failure since the 2008 financial crisis, and one of the biggest bank failures in U.S. history. The unexpected shutdown also caused widespread concern among consumers about their deposits, their bank and the banking system.

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Personal Finance

High costs, economic worries have homebuyers retreating

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There are signs that the housing market is swinging to favor buyers. However, renewed worries about the economy are holding some buyers back.

On the upside for homebuyers, home price growth has slowed and mortgage rates have retreated from recent peaks.

The median sale price for homes was $375,475 in the four weeks ending February 16, up 3.7% from a year prior, according to Redfin, a real estate brokerage firm. That is the smallest increase in nearly five months.

Meanwhile, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage inched down to 6.87% the week ending Feb. 13, per Freddie Mac data. That’s the lowest so far in the year, and down from the latest peak of 7.04% in January.

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However, “buyers are still faced with this massive affordability challenge,” said Orphe Divounguy, a senior economist at Zillow.

Mortgage applications for the week ending February 14 fell 6.6% from a week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Banker’s Association. Experts forecast January home sales data — set to come out Friday — to show a decline.

On top of relatively high costs, some buyers could be having second thoughts as uncertainty about the broader economy creeps in, according to Chen Zhao, an economist at Redfin.

“A lot of it is coming from the White House,” she said of the reasons that have buyers worried.

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Some home sellers are cutting their asking prices, too. The typical home is selling for 2% less than its asking price, the biggest discount in two years, per Redfin data.

Buyers worry about the economy, job loss

Some buyers are rethinking their plans given broader economic uncertainty, experts say.

As of mid-February, thousands of workers across multiple federal agencies and departments have been laid off as part of President Trump’s aim to reduce the government workforce.

This can make people who either work directly with the government or are connected through contract work or federal funding “nervous that there could be big changes on the horizon,” Zhao said.

“They are worried about job security,” said Zhao, which takes a home purchase off the table.

“The first thing you might do is hold off on a really big purchase because you’re worried about financial security,” she added.

A lot of it is coming from the White House.

Chen Zhao

head of economics research at Redfin

The anxiety doesn’t stop there — the possibility of trade wars and drastic changes in government spending may leave Americans wondering “what’s next?” Zhao explained.

Trump signed a presidential memorandum laying out his plan to impose “reciprocal tariffs” on foreign nations. The plan allows the U.S. to treat other countries’ non-tariff policies as unfair trade practices that warrant tariffs in response.

For consumers, the prospect of higher prices on everyday items and the potential for inflation to accelerate may make them hesitate to invest in a new home.

How to navigate the buyers’ market

If you’ve been in the market for a while and you see a house that you really like, try to negotiate hard on the price and see where it goes, Zhao said.

If the home seller isn’t open to lowering the asking price, see if they can cover additional expenses like closing costs or to pay for the buyer’s real estate agent fees.

Those can be valuable concessions.

Closing costs can run between about 2% and 6% of the loan amount, according to NerdWallet. If you take out a $300,000 mortgage, you could pay from $6,000 to $18,000 in closing costs on top of the down payment.

The average buyer’s agent commission was 2.37% for homes sold in the fourth quarter of 2024, down from 2.45% a year prior, per a data analysis by Redfin. 

If not, check out the new builds market — some builders are offering incentives like “in-house lending” and often provide favorable loan terms like lower rates, experts say.

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Personal Finance

Americans’ average credit card balance hits $6,580

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Why your grocery prices are still so high

Americans are racking up more and more credit card debt.

Collectively, consumers owe a record $1.21 trillion on their credit cards, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently reported.

The average balance per consumer now stands at $6,580, up 3.5% year over year, according to a separate quarterly credit industry insights report from TransUnion.

Despite the uptick, the rate of change has slowed considerably, said Charlie Wise, TransUnion’s senior vice president of global research and consulting. “Consumers are still continuing to use their credit cards, but the amount they are leaning on them seems to be declining.”

In the wake of the pandemic, higher prices and high interest rates put many households under pressure and prices are still rising, albeit at a slower pace than they had been.

The consumer price index — a key inflation barometer — has fallen gradually from a 9.1% pandemic-era peak in June 2022 to 3% in January. but is still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.

The central bank cut its benchmark rate by a full percentage point in the second half of 2024, but policymakers have been advocating a more cautious pace ahead as they evaluate the overall strength of the labor market and President Donald Trump‘s policy ramifications.

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According to meeting minutes released Wednesday, Federal Reserve officials agreed they would need to see inflation come down more before lowering interest rates further, and expressed concern about the impact tariffs may have.

In the meantime, households have largely adjusted to a new normal of high prices and high rates, Wise said: “We’re seeing a bit less of a reliance on credit cards to make ends meet.” After balances soared in 2022 and 2023, the growth in credit card debt has slowed considerably, he said.

Credit card delinquency rates, or those 90 days or more past due, fell year over year for the first time since 2020, TransUnion also found. “This is a good sign,” Wise said.

How to get out of credit card debt

“The good news is that there are plenty of options to help you pay down card debt,” Schulz said.

Rather than wait for a modest adjustment in the months ahead from further Fed rate cuts, borrowers could call their card issuer now and ask for a lower rate, switch to a zero-interest balance transfer credit card or consolidate and pay off high-interest credit cards with a personal loan, Schulz advised.

“If you’re really struggling, an accredited nonprofit credit counselor can make a huge difference,” he said. “Doing nothing, however, is not an option. It’ll only make things worse.” 

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